Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

958
FXUS61 KBUF 292340
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
740 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecasted rainfall amounts adjusted Monday night through Tuesday
night night. QPF increased east of both lakes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A significant warming trend will continue through Tuesday.

2) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday.

3) Active weather continues beyond Tuesday with several
additional rounds of rainfall through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A significant warming trend will continue through
Tuesday.

Residual upper-level troughing will continue to slide away from the
northeastern quadrant of the continent and deeper into the northern
Atlantic through Tuesday, as strong surface high pressure
presently over the Mid-Atlantic states slowly moves further
offshore. This will allow for a deepening south/southwesterly
flow across the lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valleys that
will pump increasingly warmer air into the Great Lakes region
through Tuesday.

As of this update, temperatures are already about 10-15 degrees
warmer than the same time just 24 hours ago. Both highs and lows
through Tuesday should tack on an additional 5-10 degrees each
period, with the warmth peaking Tuesday afternoon as most areas see
temps well into the 60s and even a few low 70s. Outside of perhaps
the Black River Valley, a nearby frontal boundary will likely
preclude temps in the North Country from reaching the 60s this week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday.

A mid-level shortwave across southern Canada will slide between a
departing upper level trough and a broad, flat upper-level ridge
across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. This will enhance
winds in the downstream northern jet streak across Ontario and
Quebec with concurrent lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. The
result will be a broad area of sfc low pressure stretching from the
central Plains to the Great Lakes by early Tuesday. The forecast
area will remain within the warm sector of this system into Tuesday
night with several robust shortwaves tracking east out ahead of it,
leading to a few rounds of rain and embedded thunderstorms Monday
night through at least the first half of Wednesday.

Within this timeframe, the focus for stronger to potentially severe
storms will be Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as the system`s
50-60kt southwesterly LLJ overspreads the region and causes 0-6km
bulk shear values to increase to around 40-45kts. Guidance suggests
500-1000J/kg of MLCAPE building into the region as well, though as
mentioned previously, convection will likely precede this stronger
forcing which greatly muddies the water in regards to predicting the
amount surface-based instability. With modeled 0-1KM SRH of 300-400
m2/s2 potentially in the same environment, could see all severe
hazards coming into play, though large hail seems more unlikely
given the more limited instability.

As of this update, SPC`s day 3 Marginal Risk encompassing nearly the
entirety of the CWA is in line with local assessment of the severe
risk.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Active weather continues beyond Tuesday with
several rounds of heavy rainfall possible through the weekend.

Strong surface high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic with
the northern jet stream remaining generally north of the Great Lakes
will allow for a steady influx of Gulf-based moisture across the
Mississippi Valley and into the forecast area. Quasi-zonal upper
level flow across the eastern CONUS will direct a series of systems
across the Great Lakes which will tap into this deeper moisture.
While there will be plenty of rain-free time in the mix, multiple
periods of light/moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall is expected
across the region throughout the week.

WPC`s forecasted basin averaged QPF over the next 7 days ranges from
2 to 5 inches, highest east of the lakes and lowest in the Genesee
Valley. During this timeframe, modeled IVT into the eastern Great
Lakes appears to be greatest late Tuesday into early Wednesday at an
anomalously high 750kg/ms. Surface dewpoints only in the upper 50s
signal that rainfall rates during this time may not be intense
enough for flashier hydro concerns, as supported by relatively
modest 6-hourly LPMM QPF from short to mid range guidance. While
trends will continue to be monitored, the eastern Lake Ontario
region in particular may need to be more closely watched as there
still remains a substantial amount of SWE in the snowpack across the
Tug and (to a lesser extent) the Western Dacks. This may lead to
problematic rises on the Black River and other waterways that drain
the Tug/Dacks, though the most aggressive, non bias- corrected
MMEFS guidance indicates a 30-40% chance of Minor Flood stage
being reached at the gauge in Watertown. The HEFS on the other
hand shows little to no potential for rises above Action stage.

While rises are also anticipated on area waterways across WNY as
well, confidence is lower in specific impacts due to the lack of
snowpack and uncertain nature of how exactly convection will evolve
each period this week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue this evening under predominantly high
clouds.

Overnight VFR flight conditions will continue across most of the
area...though increasing low-level moisture may allow for the
development of some lower-end VFR/high-end MVFR clouds in the
vicinity of KJHW toward sunrise. With surface winds on the lighter
side and a 35-40 knot southwesterly low level jet passing across WNY
aloft...some LLWS is also expected to develop across areas south of
Lake Ontario.

On Monday mid and low level moisture will increase across the area
from southwest to northeast...thereby resulting in ceilings lowering
to MVFR across much of the area...and the higher terrain of the
western Southern Tier likely seeing these lower to IFR/LIFR during
the afternoon. As we push through the afternoon...the increased
moisture coupled with the approach of a shortwave disturbance may
lead to the development of some spotty light showers...though these
will likely have little if any impact on airport operations.

Outlook...

Monday night...Deterioration to IFR/LIFR with showers becoming
increasingly likely...with a couple thunderstorms also becoming
possible overnight across far western NY.

Tuesday...IFR/MVFR north to MVFR/VFR south with fairly widespread
rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday night...IFR/MVFR with widespread rain and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Rain diminishing from north to south with MVFR/IFR
improving to MVFR/VFR.

Thursday and Friday...Restrictions likely at times with showers
likely along with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A round of near 15 knot southwest winds will develop later tonight
and Monday along with locally choppy conditions...before subsiding
late Monday and Monday night.

Overall...winds and waves are expected to remain below advisory
criteria though at least most of the day Tuesday...with chances for
SCA-worthy conditions then arriving late Tuesday and Tuesday night
as low pressure tracks from the central Great Lakes to the Saint
Lawrence Valley...and induces a period of stronger southwesterly
flow out ahead of its trailing cold front. Winds and wave action
will then gradually diminish in the wake of the cold front late
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PP
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/TMA