Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

149
FXUS61 KBUF 070701
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
201 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major adjustments to the forecast overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread moderate snow will continue across the Eastern
Lake Ontario region early this morning.

2) Lake effect snow will continue as an arctic airmass spreads
across the region through tonight, with blowing and drifting of the
fresh snowpack.

3) Dangerously cold wind chills between 15 and 35 below zero are
expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate snow will continue across the
Eastern Lake Ontario region early this morning.

Surface analysis shows a broad area of low pressure across northern
New York into Quebec early this morning. A cold northwest flow is
deepening from west to east across the forecast area. Large scale
ascent and deep moisture within the DGZ is present ahead of a 500mb
trough axis across the Eastern Lake Ontario region early this
morning. Moderate to heavy snow will continue to move eastward
across the region, with an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow expected
through this morning. The mid-level trough axis stalls across the
Eastern Lake Ontario region, maintaining low end chances for snow
showers today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Lake effect snow will continue as an arctic airmass
spreads across the region through tonight, with blowing and drifting
of the fresh snowpack.

Strong cold air advection will continue across the region today.
Temperatures at 850mb have fallen to -20C across western NY and -14C
across the Eastern Lake Ontario region as of early this morning.
Temperatures aloft will continue to fall through the day and coupled
with a northwest flow will support lake effect snow showers south
and east of the Lakes today, and south of Lake Ontario through
Sunday night.

Regional radar shows a classic northwest flow set-up for multi-lake
bands downwind of the Great Lakes early this morning. Narrow bands
of lake effect snow will continue across western NY. Bands east of
Lake Erie are getting support from upstream connections, however due
to the extensive ice cover, coverage and intensity will be light
today. Forecast soundings show conditions for weak lake effect south
of Lake Ontario, with equilibrium levels between 3-5 km and moisture
diminishing through the weekend. Due to the very cold airmass, a
fluffy couple of inches is possible in the most persistent snow
through Sunday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Dangerously cold wind chills between 15 and 35 below
zero are expected this weekend.

Arctic air is deepening across the region on the backside of a
strong cold front this morning. Mesoanalysis shows temperatures
plummeting within a 40 knot 850mb jet this morning. Temperatures
and wind chills will continue to fall through the day. As 850mb
temperatures bottom out around -28C today, these are expected to be
some of the coldest 850 hPa temperatures ever for the month of
February in Buffalo sounding climatology. The lowest 850 hPa
temperature measured in February is -28.5C on February 13th 2016.
The core of the coldest air aloft will slowly lift eastward across
the North Country into northern New England Saturday night through
Sunday.

Strong winds behind the front are creating wind chills well below
zero this morning. As the cold air deepens, temperatures and wind
chills will continue to fall today. Wind chills as low as 30 below
zero are expected to be felt across the higher terrain south of
Buffalo, and across the Finger Lakes region, then east of Lake
Ontario later today through Sunday morning. The flow over the lake
waters of Lake Ontario, combined with lake effect clouds may prevent
wind chill values from plummeting as much for the northern Niagara
Frontier, and counties along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline.

Winds will diminish across the region tonight through Sunday, but a
still plenty cold airmass with sub zero air temperature readings
will promote wind chill values in the negative double digits for our
region through Sunday late morning. Cold weather headlines are in
effect for the entire region for the weekend. Though air
temperatures Sunday night may be the coldest of the three weekend
nights, the surface ridge over our region will bring calm to light
winds...with wind chill values possibly remaining above advisory
thresholds

An upper level ridge will build into the Plains the start of the
work week with a less harsh airmass expected to start the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad area of low pressure over northern New York and Quebec early
this morning will move east today. A strong cold front will continue
to move across the forecast area. Northwest flow and a frigid
airmass will spread across the region and persist through the
weekend.

Widespread snow will transition to localized lake effect snow east
of the Lakes this morning. Snow showers will become more focused
south of Lake Ontario later today through tonight. Gusty winds will
produce areas of blowing snow in and out of snow showers today.
Winds will diminish later today through tonight and blowing snow
will become less likely.

There is a range of flight conditions across western and north-
central NY this morning. IFR or below with periods of LIFR will be
possible east of Lake Ontario early this morning. Overall, MVFR
flight conditions will continue across western NY, however narrow
bands of lake effect snow showers will reduce flight conditions at
times. As lake effect becomes focused south of Lake Ontario later
today through tonight, IFR or below is expected at KROC, where
mostly MVFR is expected elsewhere.

Outlook...

Sunday...Areas of IFR in lake effect snow showers south of Lake
Ontario.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, trending to MVFR Tuesday
afternoon.

Tuesday night through Wednesday... IFR/MVFR in light snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong northwest winds behind a cold front will continue across the
Lakes and result in a period Gales across the far western and
central portions of Lake Ontario, and Small Craft Advisories on Lake
Erie and the eastern waters of Lake Ontario. This being said, a Gale
Warning is in effect for tonight into Saturday morning for the
western and central portions of Lake Ontario. Due to the frigid
nature of the airmass overhead, along with the strong winds,
freezing spray will also be likely on Lake Ontario. Winds and waves
will subside later Sunday as surface high pressure builds into the
lower Great Lakes.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are
now ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-
     002-010>012-019-020-085.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001>005-
     010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003>006-
     013-014.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ007.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for NYZ012>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ042-043-
         062-063.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM EST this morning
         for LOZ042-043-062-063.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/Thomas
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/SW/Thomas