Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

091
FXUS61 KBUF 042253
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
653 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Bumped up winds/gusts downwind of Lake Erie on Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather returns Friday night and Saturday, followed by
improving conditions Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather returns Friday night and Saturday,
followed by improving conditions Saturday night and Sunday.

After one more dry and warm day on Friday...conditions will turn
more unsettled for Friday night and Saturday as deep-layer ridging
over our area gives way to a low-amplitude mid-level trough and
associated surface low sliding across Ontario and Quebec...with the
latter slowly pushing its trailing cold front through the area
between Saturday afternoon and evening.

An initial shot of DCVA coupled with increasing moisture along the
front flank of the approaching trough will lead to an increasing
potential for showers...and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across
far WNY later Friday night. Better chances for showers and scattered
thunderstorms may then follow on Saturday with approach/passage of a
pre-frontal trough and the cold front itself...with convective
potential likely to be maximized along and inland from developing
lake breeze boundaries.

With PWATs climbing to between 1.5 and 1.75 inches any storms that
develop on Saturday could produce locally heavy rainfall...though
with the dry antecedent conditions of late these would be unlikely
to pose hydro issues unless any training of cells is realized.
Generally modest to locally moderate instability coupled with deep-
layer shear of 30-40 knots could also lead to a few isolated
stronger storms capable of locally strong gusty winds and hail
Saturday afternoon and evening...with the greatest risk for such
currently looking to lie across the western Southern Tier. That
said...the better severe risk on Saturday looks to be to our south
and west over the upper Ohio Valley...where a greater reservoir of
instability looks to be in place.

Convection will then wind down from west to east Saturday night
with the frontal passage and loss of heating. Lingering
troughing may then lead to another couple showers/an isolated
storm across far eastern portions of the area on Sunday...with
mainly dry weather otherwise prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR will continue to prevail through Friday as high pressure remains
along the eastern seaboard. High cirrus will gradually increase from
west to east tonight through Friday, and some diurnal cumulus will
develop with daytime heating Friday as boundary layer moisture
begins to increase ahead of a weak cold front.

Outlook...

Friday night...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers after midnight with
MVFR conditions possible.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly MVFR/VFR, with localized IFR in showers
and thunderstorms. Heavy downpours are possible.

Monday through Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Pleasant boating conditions continue through Friday morning with
winds around 10 kts or less and waves around 1 foot. Friday,
increasing WSW winds for all but eastern Lake Ontario will lead to
choppier conditions, but we`ll still remain below Small Craft
criteria.

Winds will increase further Saturday in advance of a frontal
system, and marginal Small Craft conditions may develop across
portions of Lake Erie and/or Lake Ontario. There will be a risk for
gusty thunderstorms Saturday as well.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...SGK