Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

238
FXUS61 KBUF 170912
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
512 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Locally dense fog is expected to continue along the immediate
Lake Erie shoreline through daybreak.

The severe weather potential has increased across the far
western Southern Tier Saturday, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
for Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and extreme southwestern Erie
county.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Locally dense fog is along the Lake Erie shoreline this morning.

2) Another round of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms
expected Saturday into Saturday night, some of which could be strong
to severe across Western NY.

3) The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much
colder air moves in Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Locally dense fog is along the Lake Erie shoreline
this morning.

Dense fog has expanded onshore from Lake Erie early this morning.
Webcams show localized dense fog along the Lake Erie shoreline,
including portions of Route 5 and Interstate 90. Due to the
localized nature of the fog, a Special Weather Statement was issued
for the morning commute for Niagara, Erie, and Chautauqua
counties including the cities of Buffalo and Niagara Falls. Fog
will slowly improvement through the morning hours, however a
cool, northerly flow will hinder dirunal mixing this morning and
low stratus and patchy fog will linger through the morning
hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms expected Saturday into Saturday night,
some of which could be strong to severe across Western NY.

Following a brief lull in the active weather today, the next
widespread round of showers and storms will roll in from the west
through the day Saturday. This batch will be forced by a strong cold
front tied to a deepening closed low trudging across southern Hudson
Bay Saturday night through Sunday. A secondary surface wave emerging
on the leeward side of the Appalachians in the Mid-Atlantic states
may slow the progression of the front, with the steadiest precip
likely not exiting the North Country until Sunday morning. Basin
averaged rainfall amounts of 0.5-1" seem plausible in most areas.

Severe weather potential Saturday...

Diurnal timing of the front combined with dewpoints in the upper 50s
will likely form a conditionally unstable environment across WNY
Saturday afternoon, with modeled MLCAPE values approaching 1000J/kg
from the Genesee Valley westward. Strong unidirectional mid/upper
level flow in this environment will contribute to peak effective
shear values near 40kts, with strong 0-1km speed shear 20-30kts.
There will also be several potential limiting factors in this
environment to consider. Convection will already be ongoing upstream
headed into the day, the amount of surface-based instability and CIN
remains in question as there will likely be a plethora of blowoff
cirrus and mid-level clouds. Mid-level lapse rates also seem
relatively poor, with 700-500mb rates only about 5.5C/km. In
addition, while the low to the north will be in the process of
deepening Saturday/Saturday night, the system`s northeastern track
will likely cause the stronger mid-level winds to begin pulling away
from the region as or shortly before the onset of showers/storms.
While shear values will still be enough to pose some severe threat
in any case, the window for optimal wind profiles may be short lived
and not perfectly timed with peak instability. Current thinking is
that for our forecast area, these variables will line up to be most
favorable for severe weather in the western Southern Tier.

As of this update, local assessment is well corroborated by SPC`s
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for Saturday across most of WNY, with a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the far western Southern Tier.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The very warm pattern continues through Saturday
before much colder air moves in Saturday night.

Temps will cool off several degrees today compared to the past few
days behind a weak cold front, but still average about 5-10 degrees
above climatology for mid-April. Strong southerly flow then returns
Saturday with warmer temps closer to those observed earlier this
week.

The more substantial pattern change will come behind the cold front
described in Key Message (2) as deep upper level troughing crosses
the Northeast. 850mb temps peaking around +15C Saturday afternoon
will tumble to -4C to -6C by Sunday morning, then bottom out around
-12C Monday morning. This will translate to surface high
temperatures averaging 10-15 degrees (F) below normal Sunday through
Monday night. Overnight lows will be similarly cold, with areawide
temps dipping below freezing and potentially even into the teens
across the higher terrain areas, depending on the amount of clearing
that takes place.

The trough axis moving through the region, some minor lake
enhancement, and upslope effects may support a few snow showers or
flurries at times early next week. In general, the drier overhead
airmass, warmer ground temps, and strong April sun should greatly
inhibit the amount of accumulations in any one area. Some guidance
(namely the CMC) suggests an embedded shortwave ripple at the base
of the trough bringing a brief burst of snow to WNY Sunday night,
though uncertainty is high in both the strength and track of this
wave.

High pressure ridging at all levels cresting over and east of the
region should cause a southerly flow to develop by Tuesday, causing
temperatures to recover back to near or above climatological
averages through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
It`s another impactful period for aviation with low stratus and fog
across the eastern Great Lakes region through this morning. Areas of
dense fog are mostly tied to the immediate lake shore, however
visibility is expected to lower further inland towards daybreak.
Widespread low stratus will likely lead to IFR/LIFR at all TAF Sites
through mid-morning. A caveat in the reduction of flight conditions,
is an area of showers across eastern Lake Ontario and south of
Buffalo this morning. The showers will likely disrupt flight
conditions, allowing a brief period of improvement.

Surface high pressure will move overhead by this afternoon. Flight
conditions will slowly improve today, with widespread VFR flight
conditions this afternoon. A southerly wind will increase across the
region tonight, limiting low stratus and fog development. VFR
conditions are expected across the TAF sites.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR in the morning...then deterioration to IFR/MVFR with
showers and scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon
and evening. Also breezy to windy.

Sunday/Sunday night...A mix of MVFR/IFR with upslope/lake effect
rain showers mixing with and changing to snow showers.

Monday...Improvement to VFR/MVFR with leftover scattered lake
effect/upslope snow showers ending.

Tuesday,,,Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers will end from west to east overnight. Winds will remain
light on the marine zones this evening. A dense fog advisory is in
effect for the eastern end of Lake Erie until 11am this morning.

Relatively light winds and minimal wave action are expected to
continue today as high pressure builds across the Lower Great Lakes.
Winds are expected to increase out of the south Saturday through
Saturday night in association with the approach/passage of a strong
cold front. This may result in the next round of SCA conditions with
the frontal passage also accompanied by another round of showers and
storms...some of which could produce locally stronger winds and
higher waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/PP
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JJR