Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

409
FXUS61 KBUF 261738
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
138 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...


No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...


1) Cool and unsettled weather is expected to return to the area mid
to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...


KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and unsettled weather is expected to return to
the area mid to late week.

An upper level troughing pattern will begin transitioning across the
Great Lakes region mid to late week. An embedded shortwave trough
and Colorado low will move from the Plains to the Mid-West through
Monday night. The low will deepen as it reaches northern Ontario
Tuesday. A warm front and low-level jet will cross the eastern Great
Lakes region Monday night through Tuesday. Gusty winds are expected,
with the strongest gusts likely in downslope areas including the
Chautauqua Ridge, northern slopes of the Finger Lakes, and northern
Tug Hill region. There is medium confidence that the strongest wind
gusts will reach 45 mph.

Rain showers are possible ahead of a warm front Monday night through
Tuesday morning, however amounts will be limited by a departing dry
airmass. The best chance for showers (50-80%) will occur Tuesday
across western NY with a prefrontal trough. As the low moves north,
forcing and moisture will weaken, and result in lower chances for
showers across the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region.
Due to forecast weak instability, there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms across western NY Tuesday afternoon.

As troughing settles over the Great Lakes region, a southern stream
system may move from the Tennessee Valley toward the southern New
England coast Wednesday through Thursday. While the track of this
surface low remains uncertain, the chance for widespread rain
increases across the region.

Unseasonably cool air is expected across the region late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFs VFR flight conditions are found, and these
conditions should prevail through the duration of the TAF period,
with a light wind with surface high pressure nearby.

Valley fog is likely to form in the Southern Tier tonight, with
uncertainty if this fog can expand across the KJHW airfield with a
drier airmass in place. For now will have a VCFG within the TAF for
tonight through early Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon and night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...IFR/MVFR with scattered rain showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR, with an isolated rain or overnight wet snow
shower.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes region will
maintain fair boating conditions with light winds through tomorrow
night. Monday night and into Tuesday morning a strengthening
southeast gradient wind between the departing surface high and
upstream deepening low pressure over the western Great Lakes may
bring winds to small craft criteria...though the higher wave heights
will remain in the Canadian waters.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas