Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

082
FXUS61 KBUF 301029
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
629 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost Advisory issued for much of western New York Tonight and
Friday morning.

Added the potential for frost Friday night and Saturday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of frost tonight and Friday morning.

2) Unsettled weather expected from late in the week through the
beginning of next week.

3) Cool weather will support the potential for additional frost or
freeze headlines Friday night through Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of frost tonight and Friday morning.

Cooler temperatures today and Friday as an upper low drops through
the Great Lakes. Temperatures through Friday will average 10 to 15
degrees below normal with confidence fairly high in these
temperatures as very little spread in the 25th-75th percentiles, on
the order of 5 degrees or less. Partial clearing tonight along with
lightening winds will allow temperatures tonight to fall into the
30s, which will allow frost to develop in most areas, especially
inland from the lakeshores. A Frost Advisory has been issued
for most of western New York where the growing season begins on
May 1.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather expected from late in the week
through the beginning of next week.

An upper low will remain across the Great Lakes from late in the
week into at least through the early part of the weekend, sending a
few shortwave troughs through the region within the northwest flow.

Cold pool aloft and daytime heating will support isolated to
scattered showers Friday and Saturday. The better coverage of
showers expected Friday afternoon a cold front approaches the
region. Colder air behind the front Friday night through Saturday
may support graupel/snow mixing with rain showers Saturday afternoon
with any lingering showers briefing changing over to all snow
showers across the higher terrain Saturday night. Little to no snow
accumulation is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cool weather will support the potential for
additional frost or freeze headlines Friday night through Sunday
morning.

An upper level low will bring an anomalously cold airmass for
this time of year across the eastern Great Lakes region from
late in the week through the weekend. Daily maximum and minimum
temperatures will average 10 to 15 degrees below normal Friday
night through Saturday night. Low temperatures are expected to
fall into the 30s and even the 20s across the higher terrain
both Friday night and again Saturday night. Additional frost or
freeze headlines may been needed during this time for areas
where the growing season begins on May 1. This applies to all
areas with the exception of Cattaraugus, Allegany, Jefferson,
and Lewis counties.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
To start the day we`ll have some scattered showers across the western
Southern Tier and to a lesser extent across the North Country...with
largely dry conditions prevailing elsewhere. Otherwise flight conditions
will range from lower-end VFR in the vicinity of KIAG/KBUF to MVFR
across the remainder of the lower elevations...and to IFR/LIFR across
the higher terrain.

From mid-morning onward through the rest of the day...ceilings will
gradually improve to VFR across the lower elevations and MVFR across
the higher terrain with daytime heating/gradual drying of the lower
levels. At the same time...this heating of our new cooler airmass
will give rise to some weak diurnally-driven instability...with this
and developing weak low-level convergence zones leading to the
potential for some additional scattered showers across far WNY and
portions of the North Country during the late afternoon/early
evening hours.

Any such showers will then die out after sunset with the loss of
heating...leaving behind a dry and uneventful rest of the night with
flight conditions improving to mainly VFR.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered rain showers at
times. Some wet snowflakes may mix in across the higher terrain late
Friday night/early Saturday.

Monday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A wave of low pressure will move across Quebec today. Westerly
winds will gradually increase on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie
through today, producing choppy conditions on both lakes. The
best chance of marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will be
on the eastern half of Lake Ontario this afternoon through this
evening.

A continued unseasonably cool airmass and moderate pressure gradient
may support additional periods of SCA conditions at times,
particularly across Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ001>004-010>014-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EDT Friday for
         LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
         Friday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...TMA