Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

978
FXUS61 KBUF 081834
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
134 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wind advisory issued for Chautauqua, southern Erie, Jefferson and
Lewis counties late tonight through Friday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Several periods of strong winds. Southeast downslope winds
tonight off the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill Plateau with peak
gusts near 50 mph, then regionwide Friday on a south to southwest
flow, and again Sunday regionwide.

2) Snowmelt due to warming temperatures and rain will allow for
increased runoff through this weekend, though with very low chances
for any river/creek or ice jam flooding.

3) Turning colder Sunday night into Monday, with lake effect snow
downwind of the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Several periods of strong winds. Southeast downslope
winds tonight off the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill Plateau with
peak gusts near 50 mph, then regionwide Friday on a south to
southwest flow, and again Sunday regionwide.

A series of storm systems will pass across the Great Lakes region
through this weekend. Initial southeast winds tonight will
downslope off the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill Plateau with
peak gusts up to 50 mph. Low level jet increasing to 60 plus
knots late tonight with profiles suggesting around 50 knots of
flow at the top of the inversion, which will be capable of
surface southeast winds downsloping to the lee of the higher
terrain late tonight through Friday morning.

The low level jet will linger Friday, with south-southwest winds
possibly reaching advisory criteria. Latest NAM and GFS bufkit
profiles suggesting 30 to 40 knots for most areas within the
mixed layer which may transfer to the surface, with gusts of 35
to 45 mph likely, with the highest gusts across the higher
terrain.

Behind a cold front Sunday, a weaker jet of 50 knots, but with
favorable mixing within cold advection will bring a windy day,
with gusts possibly in excess of 40 mph downwind of both eastern
Great Lakes and across the Lake Plain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Snowmelt due to warming temperatures and rain will
allow for increased runoff through this weekend, though with very
low chances for any river/creek or ice jam flooding.

Low pressure and an associated warm front will bring widespread rain
late tonight and Friday. An approaching cold front will bring
another round of widespread rain Saturday. Warmer temperatures in
the 40s and 50s both Friday and Saturday will bring snowpack
melting. Overall rain amounts will not be significant, but combined
with the melting snowpack there will increased runoff through this
weekend.

MMEFS continues to highlight river and creek rises, with the Buffalo
area creeks possibly rising to near or into action stage. However,
the risk for reaching minor flood stage is very low and remains less
than 10 percent.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder Sunday night into Monday, with lake
effect snow downwind of the eastern Great Lakes.

Behind a cold front Sunday, cold air advection will send 850 mb
temperatures down to near -14C, across the eastern Great Lakes.
Wrap around moisture behind a departing shortwave trough will
bring a period of lake effect snow within a west-northwest flow.
Several inches of snow will be possible, especially to areas
east of Lake Ontario. The lake effect snow should wind down
Sunday night into Monday morning as high pressure and drier air
move in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry air is building into the eastern Great Lakes from southwest to
northeast this afternoon. Surface high pressure will move east of
the region and a southerly low-level flow will intensify tonight. An
area of low pressure will move across the Upper Great Lakes late
tonight through Friday morning. A strong low-level jet will move
overhead and result in a period of low-level wind shear tonight
through Friday morning. Increasing moisture ahead of a cold front
will result in widespread showers Friday.

Low clouds will persist east of Lake Ontario while full sunshine and
VFR conditions will continue across western NY this afternoon. MVFR
conditions at KART will improve to VFR by sunset, then widespread
VFR conditions are expected tonight. Rain showers will spread across
the region Friday morning and flight conditions will lower to low-
end VFR/MVFR across western NY. IFR conditions are expected across
the higher terrain Friday afternoon.

A cold front will move across western and north-central NY late
Friday through Friday evening. Gusty westerly winds are expected
behind the cold front.

Outlook...

Friday night...IFR/MVFR early improving to mainly VFR/MVFR with
diminishing winds and shower chances.

Saturday...Mainly VFR deteriorating to IFR/MVFR in rain later in the
day.

Sunday...MVFR/local IFR in snow showers, especially east of the
lakes. Windy with southwesterly/westerly gusts to 40 knots possible.

Monday...A couple leftover snow showers possible east of the
lakes...otherwise mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Rain or snow showers. Mainly VFR, however IFR is possible
in snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A series of passing low pressure systems will bring elevated winds
and waves to the eastern Great Lakes the end of this week and
through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

Southeast winds late tonight and into Friday over Lake Erie, and
later the eastern end of Lake Ontario, may reach small craft
thresholds...though the higher waves will remain over Canadian
waters.

South to southwesterly flow Friday will bring these higher waves to
the northeast ends of the Lakes.

There will be a brief lull Friday night into Saturday before winds
increase with a second storm system for the remainder of the
weekend. Elevated southwest to westerly flow Monday will maintain
small craft conditions on the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Friday for NYZ007-008.
     Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
         Saturday for LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Thomas