Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

425
FXUS61 KBUF 120556
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
156 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures and high humidity today. Warmest heat
index values reaching the lower to mid 90s and possibly allowing for
an increased risk in heat related illnesses.

2) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures and high humidity today.
Warmest heat index values reaching the lower to mid 90s and
possibly allowing for an increased risk in heat related illnesses.

A mid-level ridge over New York State will exit east into New
England today. Associated heat and humidity will continue, however
due to the exiting mid-level ridge and approaching surface
trough/cold front, any chance of headline-worthy heat appears to be
limited to portions of the Finger Lakes/central New York and looks
to be very marginal in nature, with confidence in apparent
temperatures reaching Heat Advisory criteria is low.

Cooler and less humid air will follow the cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
today.

A mid-level trough will cross Ontario into western Quebec, with an
associated surface low near Hudson Bay sending a cold front across
through the region between this morning and early this afternoon.
The front will encounter a very warm and humid airmass and generate
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

The progressively nature of the front will limit the severe risk
across western New York, with a somewhat better severe potential for
far eastern portions of the area. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
areawide with PWATs of 1.5-2.0 inches, supporting a risk of
torrential downpours.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Nocturnal cooling of our warm/humid airmass and light winds will
allow for the potential development of some areas of IFR/MVFR
stratus and/or fog across the Southern Tier and areas east of Lake
Ontario through early morning.

A cold front and possibly a leading pre-frontal trough across the
area between the morning and early afternoon hours will be marked by
a period of MVFR/low VFR ceilings, as well as scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will become more numerous across the Finger
Lakes and central NY as the front/prefrontal trough push
eastward and interact with the heating of the day.

While the earlier timing of the front will likely help to keep any
risk for strong to severe storms confined to far eastern portions of
the area, the very humid airmass will result in a risk of torrential
downpours and resultant brief reductions to IFR visibilities within
any heavier showers or storms. Following the frontal passage, dry
weather will return with flight conditions improving to unlimited
VFR from west to east this afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Tonight through Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though there is a slight chance for a few
showers.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, MVFR possible within a few showers/storms
that may move across the area

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes today. Preceding the
front, south and southwest winds will remain under 15 knots. The
passage of the cold front will freshen southwesterlies up to around
20 knots. Wave heights may briefly reach 4 or 5 feet on the eastern
ends of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario from mid morning through this
afternoon.

Winds will relax tonight and Saturday, while remaining generally
out of the southwest. Speed of up to 15 knots may create some
choppy conditions at times on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Southwest winds will eventually turn out of the westerly by the
end of the weekend and into Monday. Speeds near 20 knots on Lake
Ontario may bring a period of small craft headlines, especially
on the eastern end.

The cold frontal passage today will bring the risk of thunderstorms
which could trigger marine warnings with gusty winds and locally
higher waves. The greatest risk will be across the central and
eastern portion of Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this
         afternoon for LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA