Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

527
FXUS61 KBUF 280611
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
211 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler than normal temperatures and periods of light lake effect
snow will continue through tonight.

2) A warming trend will develop early next week, but will be
accompanied by increasing rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool temperatures and periods of light lake effect
snow will continue through tonight.

Cold temperatures will continue today as 850H temperatures drop to
around -15C this morning. Well below normal temperatures for this
afternoon in the low to mid 30s is expected for most areas, with
some mid to upper 20s for the higher terrain of Western & North
Central NY. Warm air advection will start later in the day today
allowing overnight lows tonight to moderate some compared to this
mornings lows.

With the cold temperatures across the region through tonight, the
potential for light lake effect and upslope snow will continue
through tonight. While temperatures and synoptic moisture will be
favorable for a lake response at times, the overlap of both is
limited to primarily this morning and tonight. Mid-level troughing
will be a bit better at these times as well. Otherwise drier air
will limit the lake response off of the lakes. Even with the better
potential for snow showers this morning, snowfall amounts should be
limited to around a half an inch southeast and east of both Lakes
Erie & Ontario, with most of those amounts reserved for the higher
terrain east of both lakes. Shifting winds from the west-northwest
to the west will also cause any lingering lake snow to become mobile
through the day today. Diurnal processes and a shot of drier air
will likely cause any lake effect snow to become more disorganized
or to mostly dissipate for the late morning and afternoon today. By
the time some of the better synoptic moisture comes into the region
later today, warm air advection will increase 850H temperatures
closer to the -10C mark, which will limit equilibrium heights.
However, this evening there should be more lake snow that develops
southeast of Lake Ontario with increased moisture and the longer
fetch of the lake, that will then shift north with the increasing
warm air advection. Another half inch to inch of snow will be
possible for tonight as well, mainly for the Tug Hill.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A warming trend will develop early next week, but
will be accompanied by increasing rain chances.

A day to day warming trend will begin Sunday and continue through
Tuesday as a low amplitude ridge moves east across the CONUS. Highs
Sunday will reach the lower 50s in most areas away from the lakes,
with some mid 50s in the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes.
Ongoing warm advection will continue to boost temperatures early
next week, with the warmth peaking on Tuesday when highs will likely
climb into the 70s for lower elevations away from the lakes.

Sunday will be dry with high pressure anchored just off the eastern
seaboard. Thereafter, rain chances will increase to go along with
the warmth. Monday may still be largely dry, with warm advection and
moisture transport bringing increasing clouds and just a low chance
of a few showers.

Rain chances will increase Tuesday as a strong mid level shortwave
and associated surface low move into the upper Great Lakes, with a
downstream warm front moving through the eastern Great Lakes and
producing a few showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms.
The surface low will continue east into Quebec Tuesday night through
early Wednesday, with a trailing strong cold front crossing the
eastern Great Lakes and producing widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms. Dry weather will return later Wednesday through
Thursday as strong high pressure builds into southeast Canada, but
it will be notably cooler behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected this morning, with some lowering
toward MVFR at times. A few hours MVFR CIGs expected at JHW this
morning as a mid-level trough pushes into the region. A few snow
showers will also develop over the higher terrain and down wind of
the lakes, but should not limit VSBYs to anything lower than VFR.

Today, a mid-level trough will push through the area from the
morning into the early afternoon from west to east. A band of
associated clouds will lower CIGs to near MVFR/VFR for a few hours
as it pushes from west to east. The band of lower CIGs will be
near/over the WNY terminals from around daybreak through mid-
morning, and over KART for mid-morning through early afternoon. Snow
showers will be possible with this trough moving through, especially
over the higher terrain and downwind of the lakes. Snow showers are
expected to remain light, and any reductions to VSBY should be
limited to lower VFR briefly.

Tonight, another mid-level trough/frontal boundary will move through
and will have the potential to initiate some more snow showers,
mainly southeast and then east of Lake Ontario where reductions to
CIGs/VSBYs will be limited and both should remain at VFR. Mainly VFR
is expected for the rest of the area with some increased mid-level
clouds with warm air advection.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with areas of IFR possible. Showers likely, with
a slight chance of embedded thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly MVFR/IFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the south and an approaching trough from the
northwest will cause an increasing pressure gradient over the region
today. This will result in SCA level winds and waves on Lake Ontario
today and this evening. Winds will increase out of the west-
northwest this morning over the western portion of Lake Ontario,
with increasing winds to the eastern portion of the lake
through the morning. Winds and waves will also increase on Lake
Erie, but look like they will stay just below SCA levels.

Winds and waves will weaken tonight as the pressure gradient over
the region weakens. Breezy southwest winds in the 10-15 kt range
is expected for Sunday, resulting in choppy conditions on both
lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW