Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

741
FXUS61 KBUF 300617
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
217 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A significant warming trend will continue through Tuesday.

2) Locally heavy rainfall is possible late tonight through Tuesday
night. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible late
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

3) Wet weather will continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A significant warming trend will continue through
Tuesday.

A day to day warming trend will continue today through Tuesday as a
flat ridge builds east across the CONUS. Highs today will reach the
low to mid 60s for the lower elevations of Western and Central NY,
with mid to upper 50s for higher terrain and the North Country. A
southwest wind will keep the Buffalo Metro area and Jefferson County
shoreline cooler. Average highs for the end of March are in the
mid to upper 40s.

Warmth will peak on Tuesday for most areas, with highs well into the
60s away from the lakes, and possibly lower 70s in some areas along
and south of the NYS Thruway. Latest model guidance suggests the
warm front will hang up near the south shore of Lake Ontario to the
North Country, with low level northeast flow just north of the
boundary. This will likely keep the south shore of Lake Ontario much
cooler. The Saint Lawrence Valley will be even colder, stuck in low
level northeast flow, with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower
40s much of the day for the Thousand Islands region.

A cold front will move south across the area late Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning, with temperatures dropping back closer to
average by Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Locally heavy rainfall is possible late tonight
through Tuesday night. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are also
possible late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

A warm front will move into the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon
then stall overnight through Tuesday. Thermal packing along the
boundary along with increasing large scale ascent and moisture
transport into the frontal position will allow it to become more
active late today through tonight. Scattered showers will begin to
develop by mid to late afternoon, then become more widespread and
heavier tonight as forcing and moisture improve. A few downpours
will develop overnight as the showers become more convective in
nature with the arrival of elevated instability, which will also
support a few widely scattered thunderstorms overnight. These
thunderstorms will be rooted well above the surface in a layer of
elevated instability, likely preventing any convective wind gusts
from reaching the surface.

Tuesday, the warm front will remain stalled from near the south
shore of Lake Ontario to the North Country for much of the day. The
proximity of the frontal zone will continue to produce occasional
showers for the northern portion of the area along and north of the
NYS Thruway. The Southern Tier will see a more extended period of
dry weather as the warm front becomes established from late morning
through afternoon. Elevated instability will continue to support a
chance of thunder in the morning, with more surface based
instability developing by late afternoon and bringing a better
chance of surface based convection.

The risk for heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday
night ahead of the approaching cold front. With PWat values of
around 1.25" and forcing from a strong LLJ and the approaching cold
front, heavy rain is expected at times for all of western & north
central NY Tuesday night. Out ahead of the front, thunderstorms are
also expected with some having the potential to become severe. Bulk
shear values continue to look like values of 40+ kts will be over
much of the region. SRH values for both the 0-1 km & 0-3 km layer
also continue to be high with values greater than 250 m2/s2.
Instability is lacking, with the best instability values expected
for the Western Southern Tier during the evening hours. However,
with the forcing from the approaching front and overall dynamics of
the system, this is unfolding to be a high shear low CAPE severe
weather setup.

As a result of the severe thunderstorm potential, the Storm
Prediction Center has placed far western NY in a `Slight Risk` and
the rest of western and north central NY in a `Marginal Risk` for
severe thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Wet weather will continue through the weekend.

The wet pattern will continue through the weekend as multiple rounds
of rain move through the western & north central NY areas. With a
stout ridge and area of high pressure over the western portion of
the Atlantic, upstream troughs and sfc lows developing over/near the
Rockies and Central Plains will be diverted northeast across the
Great Lakes through the weekend. Stalled/stationary frontal
boundaries found from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the
Central/Eastern Great Lakes and to New England will provide for the
continued wet weather as surface lows and influxes of Gulf moisture
tracks along/near them. As different sfc lows track northeast across
the eastern half of the CONUS, these stalled/stationary fronts will
briefly drop south as cold fronts, and then lift back north as warm
fronts ahead of the next approaching sfc low.

This will be the case starting on Wednesday morning, when a cold
front drops south across most of the Buffalo forecast area behind a
passing sfc low. Uncertainty still remains with how quickly the
front will move through, and how far south the front will drop
before stalling ahead of the next sfc low. Current thought is that
the front will drop south far enough for there to be dry weather
from late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening, but if the
front stalls closer to or over the BUF forecast area, there will be
greater potential for continued showers.

This will be the case with the next few systems that move through,
with the southern portion of frontal boundaries with these systems
getting hung up on the western & northern periphery of the Atlantic
ridge/high, creating stalled boundaries. The northern portion of the
systems will more progressively track east over the ridge and then
move on. The flow around the Atlantic ridge/high will bring an
optimal setup for an influx of Gulf moisture to push north with each
developing sfc low over the Plains. Passing sfc lows and frontal
boundaries crossing and/or stalling over the area will bring the
potential for a couple of inches of rain through the weekend. There
is still uncertainty among the guidance and the exact track of the
heavier rain and placement of stalled frontal boundaries, so the
rainfall amounts could end up lower than current forecasts, but the
potential for continued rain in general is more certain.

With passing and stalling frontal boundaries and placement of said
frontal boundaries north/south near the forecast area, temperature
for the week will also remain uncertain. It does appear that the
colder side of the fronts will feature temperatures that are mostly
near normal, while the warmer side of the fronts will have well
above normal temperatures at times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through early afternoon with high cirrus
clouds this morning giving way to thickening and lowering CIGS this
afternoon and evening. MVFR CIGS will develop first across the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier this afternoon, then
spread north into the rest of the area this evening. CIGS will lower
further to widespread IFR tonight as a warm front moves into the
eastern Great Lakes and low levels saturate beneath a steepening
frontal inversion.

Dry weather will prevail through early this afternoon, then a few
scattered showers will develop later this afternoon and evening.
Showers will become more widespread and heavier tonight as the warm
front organizes and becomes more active over the eastern Great
Lakes. Elevated instability will also support widely scattered
thunderstorms overnight.

Finally, a 35-40 knot low level jet will develop over the eastern
Great Lakes today, then strengthen to 50-60 knots late tonight. This
will bring low level wind shear early this morning, then result in
increasing surface wind gusts from late morning through this
afternoon. Expect gusts in the 20-25 knot range in most areas, and
30-35 knots across the Niagara Frontier northeast of Lake Erie.
Gusts will diminish this evening, but another period of low level
wind shear will develop overnight as the low level jet strengthens.

Outlook...

Tuesday...IFR/MVFR north to MVFR/VFR south with occasional showers
and scattered thunderstorms.

Tuesday night...IFR/MVFR with widespread rain and scattered
thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Showers across the Southern Tier ending early. MVFR/IFR
CIGS in the morning improving to mainly VFR in the afternoon.

Thursday and Friday...Periods of MVFR/IFR in showers. A chance of a
few thunderstorms at times. Wintry mix possible Thursday in the
Saint Lawrence Valley.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase to around 15 knots on Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario today, producing choppy conditions, but winds and waves
will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria in most
areas. A warm front will hang up across the lower Great Lakes
Tuesday, resulting in southwest winds on Lake Erie and northeast
winds on Lake Ontario. Winds will run around 15 knots again, with a
moderate chop on both lakes.

A cold front will move southeast across the area Tuesday night, with
a deepening area of low pressure passing by just north of the lakes.
Southwest winds will increase on both lakes just ahead of the cold
front, with a period of Small Craft Advisory winds and waves likely.
Winds will become northwest and diminish Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock