Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

347
FXUS61 KBUF 021826
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
126 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for mixed precipitation for the
western Southern Tier Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A light wintry mix is expected across the western Southern Tier
Tuesday.

2) A series of warmer systems will bring widespread rain and
hydrological concerns later this week.

3) Springlike warmth will move into the region this week and likely
continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A light wintry mix is expected across the western
Southern Tier Tuesday.

Surface high pressure overhead will move across New England today,
then off the east coast tonight. Dry weather will continue across
the eastern Great Lakes region through a majority of tonight.

The mid-level flow will remain quasi-zonal through Tuesday, with a
weak shortwave trough deepening slightly as it moves from the Ohio
Valley into the New England. A warm front across the Lower Ohio
Valley will lift northward while an inverted trough persists across
the eastern Great Lakes region tonight. Increasing mid-level
southerly flow and modest moisture across the warm front will
support light precipitation moving into western NY Tuesday morning.
Surface temperatures will rise the second half of the night, however
temperatures are expected to remain below freezing as light
precipitation moves into the western Southern Tier. While the
coverage looks spotty due to modest moisture overcoming dry air,
thermal profiles show a period of freezing drizzle, sleet or
freezing rain across the western southern Tier Tuesday morning.
Adjacent locations in southern Erie, Wyoming, and Livingston
counties may see a brief period of mixed precipitation, however
confidence is low. The march sun angle will mitigate most concerns
Tuesday afternoon, with only pockets of freezing rain possible as
precipitation becomes rain. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
for eastern Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties from 7am
to 4pm Tuesday. A glaze to a few hundredths of an ice and less than
an inch of snow/sleet is expected across the western Southern Tier.

Further north across western NY, mostly light rain is expected as
light precipitation moves northward, however some sleet can`t be
ruled out. Colder air will reside east of Lake Ontario and snow is
the main precipitation type. A coating to an inch of snow is
expected across the southern Tug Hill region and western Dacks
through Tuesday. The aforementioned shortwave trough will move east
and push moistures and forcing east of the forecast area Tuesday
night. Light precipitation will come to an end by Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A series of warmer systems will bring widespread
rain and hydrological concerns later this week.

A progressive 1026mb sfc high will shift east across NYS Wednesday,
moving off the Northeast coast Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a series
of shortwaves will ripple across a stalled frontal boundary over the
Ohio Valley, causing it to gradually lift back northwards as a warm
front. The northward extent of the moisture and isentropic lift will
likely be subdued by the passing high, keeping much of the area
north of the Finger Lakes dry through Thursday morning. Clearer
skies and northeast flow may cause near or sub-freezing air to reach
as far south as the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. This does
introduce some minor ptype concerns though thinking if precip does
reach that far north, slightly warmer temperatures should
correspondingly accompany it.

In any case, rainfall across the southern zones will be minor with
the initial waves (up to ~0.25" in the Southern Tier) through
Wednesday night. It is with the more robust shortwave and attendant
sfc low moving into the lower Great Lakes that more substantial
areawide rainfall is anticipated later Thursday through Thursday
night. Long range guidance remains at odds on the details though
additional Pacific-based shortwave energy will keep the pattern
active through at least Saturday, though possibly into early next
week as well, with thermal profiles ensuring rain is the dominant
ptype. Not out of the question that depending on the timing and
amount of forcing present with some of these systems that we see a
few thunderstorms as well.

NBM probabilities remain high (50-80%) for 3-day rainfall of at
least 1" by Sunday morning for WNY at the Tug Hill region. These
probabilities have notably trended higher for the Genesee Valley but
still remain lower (30-40%). The potential for higher amounts (2-3"
or more) is also worth watching, though uncertainty is higher in
this range especially given the potential for convection. This
rainfall combined with accelerated runoff from snowmelt will cause
rises on area waterways later in the week. MMEFS forecasts indicate
minimal concerns through Thursday before steady rises to at least
Action stage on multiple area creeks and rivers, namely those north
of the Allegany River basin, with several potentially reaching or
exceeding flood stage. Confidence remains low in specific impacts
given uncertainty in the long range QPF amounts and placement,
though ensemble forecasts indicate the the creeks in the Buffalo
area, in the Genesee River Valley basin, and the Black River will
need to be closely watched as we progress through the week. Some of
the slower responding creeks/rivers could remain elevated into early
next week. In addition, while the Buffalo Area creeks are now
generally free of thicker ice, there may still be some problematic
ice on other creeks and streams in the CWA that may further break up
and move in response to the rainfall, snowmelt, and warmer
temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Springlike warmth will move into the region this
week and likely continue into next week.

The longwave pattern across the continent will evolve throughout the
week to become increasingly favorable for early (meteorological)
spring warmth. A ridging pattern out west will then shift eastward
as Pacific-based troughing moves inland, with slow height rises
gradually translating downstream to replace the zonal flow. This may
briefly get disrupted by a passing shortwave Thursday night into
Friday, though a quick return to strong southerly flow will cause
temperatures to continue warming areawide. The peak of the warmth
will likely be on Saturday timeframe when highs will reach well into
the 60s for much of the area, possibly even the low 70s in some of
the typical warmer areas like Dansville.

The strong offshore ridging pattern could have a bit of staying
power beyond the 7-day forecast, as CPC`s 6-10 Day Outlook strongly
favors above normal temperatures for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue through tonight as high
pressure slowly drifts east off the east coast. A warm front will
move northward across the Ohio Valley, and clouds will increase from
south to north across the eastern Great Lakes region. Light rain is
expected to move into western NY, with a brief period of spotty
freezing rain across the western Southern Tier.

Deeper moisture will move into western NY Tuesday morning and VFR
flight conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR across western NY by
noontime.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR with a chance of rain, especially in the
southern half of the area. Precipitation may be in the form of snow
east of Lake Ontario.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the day. Rain likely with MVFR/IFR
flight conditions returning Wednesday night.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain.

Friday...MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

Saturday...MVFR with a medium to high chance of rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will move east across New England today, and off the
east coast tonight with a period of light winds and diminishing wave
action.

South winds will increase on the eastern half of Lake Ontario
tonight through Tuesday as the high drifts off the New England coast
and low pressure approaches from the west. This will produce a
period of choppy conditions at the northeast end of the lake, but
winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria.

Winds are then expected to be mainly light with low wave action from
later Tuesday through Wednesday.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
     NYZ019>021.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/PP
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK