Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

059
FXUS61 KBUF 070627
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
127 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit east of the area today, with rain changing to
a brief period of wet snow before ending. Most areas will see
minimal snow accumulation, with a few inches possible across the
higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills. A wintry
mix will continue across the Saint Lawrence Valley early this
morning before changing back to snow. Otherwise, plenty of low
clouds and some fog will linger today through tonight before high
pressure brings dry and unseasonably warm weather Thursday. A pair
of low pressure systems will then cross the Great Lakes Friday
through Saturday with periods of rain, ending as some light snow
Sunday as more seasonable temperatures move back into the eastern
Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Radar imagery and surface observations show widespread precipitation
across the region early this morning. Most of the precipitation is
falling as rain, but marginally cold air wrapping into the departing
low pressure system will allow for a quick change to wet snow from
west to east during the pre-dawn hours. Mixed precipitation
continues across the North Country early this morning with surface
temperatures still at or below freezing, mainly across the Saint
Lawrence Valley. A mix of freezing rain, snow, and sleet will
continue across portions of Jefferson and Lewis counties before the
warm nose aloft erodes and changes the mix back to snow by around
daybreak. The greatest ice accumulations will be across the Thousand
Islands region, where northeast flow in the Saint Lawrence Valley
has locked in low level cold air.

Low pressure will move east of the area into eastern NY this morning
before secondary cyclogenesis takes over by early afternoon over the
Gulf of Maine. Large scale forcing and deeper mid level moisture
will quickly depart from west to east through the morning hours,
allowing wrap around wet snow to quickly taper off and end from mid
morning through early afternoon.

Expect minimal snow accumulation in most areas, with a coating to an
inch across the North Country and 1-3" across the higher terrain of
the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills from a period of favorable
upslope enhancement early this morning. Additional ice accumulations
of up to 0.10" are possible across the Saint Lawrence Valley before
precipitation changes back to all snow by daybreak.

Deep low level moisture will be left behind across the eastern Great
Lakes in the wake of the departing system. This will combine with a
mild airmass over snowpack/cold ground to bring a wealth of low
clouds and areas of fog through the rest of today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday night and Friday low pressure initially near Iowa will
slowly fill as it makes its way northeastward across the central
Great Lakes and on into central Quebec...with this system pushing
one or more warm frontal segments across our area through the first
half of Friday...with its trailing cold front then easing across our
region Friday evening. Continued shots of warm advection/isentropic
upglide out ahead of the former will bring occasional showers to the
area later Thursday night through the first half of Friday...
followed by a few more showers out ahead of/along its trailing
weak cold front Friday afternoon and evening.

While the low will be gradually weakening...the warm advection
pattern out ahead of it will still be accompanied by a pretty good
wind field aloft...with 850 mb winds still looking to peak in at
least the 50-60 knot range later Thursday night/early Friday
morning. While the warm advection regime will help to keep the
strongest winds from mixing down to the surface...we should still be
fairly breezy to windy nonetheless...certainly more so than
advertised by the NBM which again looks too low. This will
especially be the case in our typically favored areas of downslope
flow and across some of our higher terrain. The strongest winds
still look to lie along the Lake Erie shoreline for a period later
Thursday night/Friday morning...where gusts could potentially reach
advisory criteria (50 mph). Gusts may also reach the 40-45 mph range
within the Black River Valley and in areas downwind of the higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario...with the rest of the area generally
seeing gusts peak in the 30-40 mph range.

Otherwise...the warmer airmass accompanying the passage of the low
will result in temps running well above average during this 24-hour
window...with lows in the lower 30s east to lower 40s west Thursday
evening giving way to rising temps for the balance of Thursday
night...followed by widespread highs in the upper 40s east to mid
50s west on Friday. Should any substantial breaks in the showers
develop for a long enough period of time during Friday...the rather
mild airmass and brisk southerly flow could even potentially allow a
few spots to approach or reach 60 degrees.

Following the passage of the weak cold front Friday evening...high
pressure and drier air will briefly ridge across our region...
resulting in a trend back to mainly dry weather for the second half
of Friday night. With only weak to modest cold advection following
behind the front...overnight lows will only settle back into the 30s
for the most part...and will remain warmer than normal high temps
for this point in January.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Heading on into the weekend...a second...initially broad southern
stream low over the Ohio Valley will organize and make its way to
our general vicinity or a bit to our west by early Saturday evening.
The low should then become increasingly elongated and lift north
across southern Ontario/Quebec Saturday night while secondary
surface cyclogenesis takes place along the New England coastline...
with the resulting complex double-barrelled low then generally
sliding northeastward into southern Quebec and the Canadian
Maritimes during the day Sunday.

The above will bring us another milder day (highs mostly in the 40s)
with rain spreading back across the area from south to north during
Saturday. With the arrival of cold advection and dry slotting aloft
following the passage of an initial cold front Saturday evening...
the pcpn should then tend to diminish some while mixing with/
changing to snow Saturday night...with areas of light to modest lake
enhanced/upslope snow then following downwind of the lakes Sunday
and Sunday evening.

Given the ongoing and expected milder temperatures and rainfall/
snowmelt through the first half of the weekend...streamflows should
be elevated through the weekend...with the potential for a few area
creeks and streams (most notably a few Buffalo area creeks and the
Black River in the North Country) to reach action stage.

Depending upon the exact track and strength of the initial surface
low (factors which still remain in question at this time)...the
potential also remains for a period of stronger winds behind the
system`s trailing cold front later Saturday night and especially
Sunday...with the magnitude of these remaining in question given
continued run-to-run and model-to-model inconsistencies in the
track/strength of the low and its associated low level wind field.
This said...it`s worth noting that both the latest GFS and ECWMF
hang the initial low further west and keep it stronger initially...
which if realized would support a potential for at least some
advisory-type gusts first in the typical areas northeast of the
lakes...with this then shifting to areas E/ESE of the lakes as winds
veer with the approach/passage of a secondary cold front later
Sunday/Sunday evening. With this in mind...have again raised winds
and gusts for this time frame from those advertised by the
NBM...though have kept these mostly capped in the 30-40 mph range
for now given the continued uncertainty and still somewhat-distant
time frame.

Later Sunday night and Monday high pressure and drier air will build
east across our region. This will bring an end to any lingering lake
enhanced/upslope snows east of the lakes...with generally dry
weather otherwise prevailing through Monday night. Chances for a few
rain/snow showers may then return on Tuesday as another system
approaches from the west/northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure will move east of the area today, with widespread rain
changing to wet snow before ending from west to east. A wintry mix
across the Saint Lawrence Valley north of KART will continue early
this morning before changing back to snow. Widespread low stratus
and areas of fog will bring wall to wall IFR/LIFR conditions through
this morning, even where precipitation begins to taper off.

The brief period of snow in the wake of the departing system will
quickly end from west to east from late morning through early
afternoon. While the weather will be dry this afternoon through
tonight, deep low level moisture left behind by the system combined
with mild air over snowpack will result in a wealth of low stratus
and areas of fog persisting this afternoon through tonight with
widespread IFR conditions.

Outlook...

Thursday...Early morning MVFR/IFR in low stratus and fog,
improving to VFR.

Thursday night and Friday...Deteoriating to IFR/MVFR in rain
showers. LLWS and locally gusty winds.

Saturday...Mainly VFR deteriorating to IFR/MVFR in rain later in the
day.

Sunday...MVFR/local IFR in snow showers, especially east of the
lakes. Windy.

&&

.MARINE...
A brief period of moderate westerlies will bring Small Craft
Advisory conditions to Lake Erie this morning, and to Lake Ontario
from this morning through early afternoon. Winds will gradually
diminish later today through Thursday as high pressure passes by
just south of the lakes.

Low pressure will move through the central Great Lakes Friday,
bringing a period of higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions to
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Thursday night through Friday. Another
stronger low will take a similar track Saturday through Sunday and
continue to strengthen as it reaches southern Quebec later Sunday.
This may bring a period of gales to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
Sunday as colder air pours back into the eastern Great Lakes behind
the system.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock