Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

849
FXUS61 KBUF 031031
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
631 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather is expected to return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather is expected to return this
weekend.

A well established ridge axis of an omega pattern will begin to fade
through the end of the week, with a PACNW trough cresting
this ridge axis and bearing down upon our region this weekend.

Day to day warming through the week, combined with a southerly moist
flow late in the week, will lend to building instability by the
weekend. This, combined with lift ahead of the shortwave trough and
well established lake breeze circulations will increase confidence
for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the peak heating of
the day for the weekend.

Forecasted PWATS are expected to reach 1.5 inches or so, which would
allow for downpours of rain within any stronger thunderstorms.
Latest ensemble datasets have converged on Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning for the bulk of the precipitation activity,
with lingering showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon
before drier air builds in from the Northwest through the day and
evening Sunday...this behind the exiting shortwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS a broad area of surface high pressure centered
just to the west of Lake Erie will slowly drift southeastward
today and tonight, while bringing a continuation of VFR flight
conditions.

Local lake breeze circulations will become established off both
Lakes, with southwest flow for KBUF and KART while KROC and KJHW
will have more northwest flow. Initial northwest flow for KIAG will
likely become southwest through the afternoon as the Lake Erie
lake breeze circulation expands.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Friday night...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers (MVFR).

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly MVFR/VFR, with IFR in showers and
thunderstorms. Heavy downpours are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure near the western end of Lake Erie this Wednesday
morning will drift south and eastward through the Ohio Valley today
before drifting to the Southeast late in the week. This will
maintain light winds and gentle waves.

A cold front will drop southward across the eastern Great Lakes this
weekend with an increase in both wind and wave action...possibly to
small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas