Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

044
FXUS61 KBUF 120755
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
255 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Impactful lake snows will move north into Oswego County today off
Lake Ontario with lighter snows further inland, while the remainder
of the area sees a brief break in the active weather. Lake effect
snow will develop late tonight toward Niagara County ahead of a
strong cold front, with a quick few inches of snow possible
northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario Saturday as the front crosses
the region. Much colder air moves back into the area Saturday night
and Sunday behind the cold front with heavy lake effect snows
possible east of both lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes will continue
to wind down through the early morning hours. A band of moderate to
at times heavy lake effect snow will then redevelop east of Lake
Ontario today, mainly across Oswego County, but possibly reaching
into far southwestern Lewis County at times. Otherwise, the
remainder of the area will get a well deserved brief break in the
active weather. Lake effect snow details follow just below...

Off Lake Erie...

Westerly flow will slowly back to southwesterly through the day with
little activity off the lake through the daylight hours. However, as
southwesterly flow aligns down the long axis of the lake very late
today, may see a few light snow showers develop northeast of the
lake for the evening hours with only very minor accumulations
expected. Later tonight, winds back even further to south-southwest
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Deeper moisture pushing
into the area combined with increasing surface convergence ahead of
the front will lead to a band of lake effect snow developing
north-northeast of the lake, initially across western Niagara
County, possibly sagging south into far northern Erie County very
late tonight with a couple inches of accumulation possible across
these areas by daybreak Saturday.

Off Lake Ontario...

Light lake effect snow showers southeast of the Lake Ontario will
continue to wind down through the early morning hours. Will keep
Winter Storm Warnings in place through daybreak for Wayne and
northern Cayuga counties, as well as the Winter Weather Advisory for
Monroe County. Later this morning, winds will realign out of the
west, allowing a band of lake effect snow to redevelop and
strengthen east of the lake into Oswego County, possibly stretching
into southwestern Lewis County at times. An upstream connection with
Georgian Bay looks to develop as well, further boosting confidence
for a well-organized band to regenerate. Flow will then back to
southwest later this evening before shifting to south-southwest and
eventually south by daybreak Saturday. This will not only cause the
band to shift northward from late this evening through the second
half of the night, but weaken it at the same time as the band sweeps
from south to north through Jefferson County. As for accumulations,
expecting 6-10 inches in the most persistent snows across central
and northern Oswego County through this evening, with lesser amounts
for adjacent areas. With this in mind, have upgraded the Winter
Weather Advisory currently in effect for Oswego County to a Lake
Effect Snow Warning. This warning will remain in effect through
Sunday afternoon to encompass a second event that is expected to
begin Saturday afternoon. See Short Term section for more details.
Otherwise, increasing shear and decreasing fetch off the lake will
rapidly weaken the band as it lifts north through Jefferson County
tonight with 2-3 inches across southern Jefferson County as the band
makes its initial move north, then an inch or less through the
northern half of the county as what`s left of the band moves all the
way into the Saint Lawrence Valley by very late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level closed low will advance from near the north shore of
Lake Superior Saturday morning to the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday,
sharpening and opening up into a trough axis with time. This system
will deliver a fresh batch of cold air to the eastern Great Lakes,
supporting the next round of heavy lake effect snow east of the
lakes.

Outside of lake effect areas, a baroclinic wave will move from the
Ohio Valley to southern New England on the southern flank of the
digging trough. This feature may produce some widespread (non-lake
effect) light snow late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night,
especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes with minor
accumulations.

The lake effect snow potential will increase again as cold air
deepens. Latest 00Z guidance continues to suggest the best setup
will be off Lake Ontario, especially Saturday night through Sunday
morning. Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise to near 15K feet,
peaking Sunday morning as the pool of coldest air aloft and best
synoptic scale moisture and forcing move over the eastern Great
Lakes.

Off Lake Erie...

A band of lake enhanced snow along the arctic cold front will be
northeast of the lake near the Buffalo Metro area and Niagara
Frontier early in the morning. This band of snow will move quickly
south into the Southern Tier by midday as boundary layer flow veers
more westerly. The lake effect setup becomes more complicated for
Saturday night as the weak baroclinic wave passes by to the south of
Lake Erie, which will likely introduce shear into the boundary layer
and disrupt banding structures. Flow will then become northwest on
Sunday with lake enhanced upslope snow across the higher terrain,
and there will likely be an upstream connection to Lake Huron that
will locally enhance snowfall. The northwest flow lake snow
continues through Sunday evening before drier air, shear, and
anticyclonic flow weakens lake effect overnight.

As far as accumulations go, the setup is not as favorable as Lake
Ontario will be, but nonetheless, snow totals will add up over the
36-48 hour period and likely approach low end watch/warning
criteria across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and
Boston Hills. With this in mind, we have issued a Winter Storm Watch
for lake effect snow for southern Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus
counties from Saturday through Sunday night. The initial phase of
this event may bring advisory worthy snow amounts to portions of the
Niagara Frontier and Buffalo Metro area Saturday morning before
quickly moving south.

Off Lake Ontario...

A band of lake enhanced snow along the arctic front will intensify
northeast of the lake over Canada Saturday morning, then swing
southeast across Jefferson County Saturday afternoon before focusing
on the Tug Hill region by Saturday evening. The band of snow will
then intensify Saturday night near the Oswego/Jefferson county
border and western Tug Hill Plateau. A strong convergence signature
and ideal cloud microphysics should allow this band to become quite
strong, with 2-3+" per hour snowfall rates likely. This intense band
will then move south across Oswego County Sunday morning, and settle
into northern Cayuga and far northeast Wayne County for a time
Sunday. The band will still be quite intense, with 2-3+" per hour
snowfall rates continuing through the first half of Sunday. A sharp
wind shift associated with a secondary arctic front will then move
south across the lake Sunday afternoon, shoving the band onshore and
breaking lake effect apart into a spray of much weaker multibands
and snow showers along the entire south shore and extending south
into the Finger Lakes by late afternoon. This weaker spray of
multibands will continue south of the lake Sunday night and
gradually weaken.

As far as accumulations go, it will depend on how long the band can
stay in one location as it crosses the Tug Hill region and Oswego
County Saturday night through Sunday morning. The residence time is
relatively brief with a steady southward shift, but even so, intense
snowfall rates may still support accumulations of a foot or more
across portions of Oswego County, southern Jefferson County, and
the western slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau. Accumulations may also
get close to low end Watch/Warning criteria in northern Cayuga and
eastern Wayne counties as the band moves south on Sunday.

For headlines, the Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Lake
Effect Snow Warning for Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties. In
Oswego County, it is a long duration warning to cover the the lake
snow today, and then the second event late Saturday through Sunday,
with a break between. For Jefferson and Lewis counties, the warning
is just focused on the second event later Saturday through Sunday. A
Winter Storm Watch has also been issued for northern Cayuga and
Wayne counties for Sunday through Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monday, one last mid level trough will cross the eastern Great
Lakes. This feature will produce some general light snow, and also
support lake enhanced snow east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The
favorable lake effect setup is brief, but may support one more round
of moderate accumulations east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
Boundary layer flow will back to the WSW, so some of the lake
enhancement may impact Buffalo and Watertown.

Monday will be the last wintry day for awhile as the pattern becomes
much more zonal across the US by the middle of next week, forcing
cold air to retreat back into Canada and allowing warmer air to move
northward into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Temperatures will
rise above the 40 degree mark for lower elevations by Wednesday, and
may get close to 50 by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Light lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario will
continue to wind down through the early morning hours with
intermittent VSBY restrictions possible at KROC for the next couple
of hours. A band of moderate to at times heavy lake effect snow will
then redevelop east of Lake Ontario today, mainly across Oswego
County, but possibly reaching into far southwestern Lewis County at
times. Otherwise, the remainder of the area will get a well deserved
brief break in the active weather.

Today...westerly flow will keep areas east of the lakes (KJHW/KART)
in mainly MVFR/low VFR CIGS, while mainly VFR conditions are
expected across the Niagara Frontier and lower Genesee Valley.
Outside of localized LIFR/IFR VSBY in lake effect snow east of Lake
Ontario (south of KART), VFR VSBYs are expected elsewhere through
the day.

This evening through 06Z...flow will become southwesterly which will
cause the lake band off Lake Ontario to weaken and start to shift
north through the evening with MVFR/IFR possible at KART later this
evening. Also expecting an uptick in lake effect activity
north-northeast of Lake Erie ahead of an approaching cold front with
MVFR/IFR possible at KBUF/KIAG later this evening as well. MVFR/low
VFR will continue across the higher terrain with mainly VFR
elsewhere.

Outlook...

Later Friday night through Saturday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow
showers. Local IFR in lake effect snow northeast of the lakes.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR/LIFR in
lake effect snow east of the lakes at the start of the day shifting
to areas southeast and south of the lakes.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR in lake
effect snow east and southeast of the lakes.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warnings on eastern Lake Ontario have been replaced with Small
Craft Advisories that are in effect through the early overnight
hours tonight.

Otherwise, winds will continue to gradually diminish from west to
east through today as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley
and central Great Lakes. The break in stronger winds will be brief
with another round of long-duration high end Small Craft Advisory to
marginal gales expected over the weekend, possibly starting as early
as tonight for Lake Erie.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ003.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ004-005.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     morning for NYZ004-005.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST
     Sunday for NYZ006.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday
     night for NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this
         morning for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM