Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

687
FXUS61 KBUF 301754
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
154 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added patchy fog across some interior locations tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler than average and mainly dry weather lasts through at least
midweek.

2) Trending warmer later in the week, with more unsettled weather
possible by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler than average and mainly dry weather lasts
through at least midweek.

An omega-blocking type pattern will remain in place across the CONUS
through at least the first half of next week. This will sandwich the
eastern Great Lakes between a reloading upper level trough across
the Northeast and a strong high pressure ridge spanning the nation`s
midsection and the Canadian Prairies. The former will maintain the
flow of unseasonably cool air (single digit 850mb temps) across the
region while the latter provides the necessary subsidence for dry
weather to prevail. Embedded shortwaves coupled with diurnal
instability and modest lapse rates within the eastern trough may
cause a few showers or a thunderstorm to clip the North Country at
times. Highest chances for this will be Sunday afternoon and
evening, with relatively lower chances again on Tuesday.

The coldest timeframe through the next 7 days will be today and
tonight as highs at the lower elevations only manage the low/mid
60s, with low temperatures tonight in the low/mid 40s. Upper 30s at
the higher elevations tonight with light winds and clear skies could
lead to some frost and valley fog, though thinking remains on track
that any frost would be too patchy and brief to warrant headlines.
Temperatures then moderate back towards average by Sunday and remain
seasonable through midweek.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Trending warmer later in the week, with more
unsettled weather possible by next weekend.

The aforementioned omega-block will begin to break down and shift
eastward around midweek. This will allow for the warmer airmass
under the ridge to the west to finally advect into the region,
causing surface temps Thursday onwards to swing above average for
early June.

Early signals from long range guidance suggest that by next weekend,
the omega-blocking pattern will have broken down and shifted
eastward such that the trough on the western side of the ridge will
finally begin moving into the Great Lakes. This would bring another
bout of unsettled weather back to the region, though confidence in
the details is low given the forecast range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions continue for most of WNY this afternoon as high
pressure attempts to build in from the west as a slow moving
upper low slides off the New England coast. Cool and dry high
pressure moves overhead tonight, with skies remaining mostly
clear. There will be potential for valley fog over the southern
tier of WNY overnight, which could affect KJHW at times until
shortly after sunrise. Thereafter, skies will be mostly clear
tomorrow for all but the eastern shore of Lake Ontario, as
another disturbance rolls into eastern New England from the
north.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...Mainly VFR with scattered showers across the North
Country.

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building into the area tonight will keep winds
light across the eastern Great Lakes through tomorrow. Westerly
winds increase across Lake Ontario tomorrow afternoon ahead of
yet another cold front. Winds and waves should remain below SCA
levels, but conditions will be choppy for a few hours across
eastern Lake Ontario. High pressure builds back into the region
from the west Monday, with more staying power, which will lead
to generally good boating conditions this upcoming week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PP
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...SGK