Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

964
FXUS61 KBUF 040953
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
553 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing confidence for accumulating snow Monday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers with embedded thunderstorms and potential for heavy
rainfall and severe thunderstorms through tonight.

2) Late season snow and winter`s chill Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers with embedded thunderstorms and potential
for heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms through tonight.

A frontal boundary to our south will lift back northward today,
ushering in a return of warmth, instability and convection. High
temperatures this afternoon are expected to be again into the
60s...with mid 70s through the downslope Genesee Valley and far WNY
where an easterly flow will downslope off higher terrain. This
warmth, and a return of PWAT values 1.25 to 1.50 inches will fuel
instability. MUCAPE values will approach 1000 J/KG across far WNY,
with northeast-east flow across the North Country leaving the
atmosphere with much less instability.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the daylight hours
today, will become more concentrated ahead of a strong cold front.
CAMs bring a line of showers and thunderstorms into our region after
sunset this evening. Instability will be quickly fleeting, as well
as a lowering to SRH values and wind shear. There could be a narrow
window this evening for severe storms across WNY, for which SPC has
our region in a marginal to slight risk. Damaging winds are the
primary threat, with an isolated tornado or large hail the secondary
threats. Additionally the high values of precipitation water in the
atmosphere will lend to moderate to heavy rain overnight, with basin
average 0.50 to 1.00, and locally higher amounts in thunderstorms.
This rain will elevate river and creek flows with just a low
probability at this time for a return to flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Late season snow and winter`s chill Sunday night
through Tuesday.

Following the passage of Sunday`s cold front a much colder airmass
will drop across the eastern Great Lakes region Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures at 850 hPa will drop to around -8 to -9
Monday, and then down to -13 to -15C Tuesday with the passage of a
second shortwave trough within the mean mid level flow.

Any snow accumulation Sunday afternoon through Monday will be minor
and mainly reserved for the higher terrain. By Monday night, with
the passage of the second shortwave trough, and temperatures below
freezing across the region, falling snow will be able to accumulate
with one to two inches expected across our region, with up to 4
inches on the hill tops of SW NYS. Accumulating snow will end by
Tuesday morning behind the shortwave trough and solar effects of a
strong April sun angle. Highs Tuesday are expected to be some 15 to
20 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CIGs will continue across the western Southern Tier (KJHW) this
morning, with MVFR CIGs likely east of Lake Ontario (KART).
Elsewhere, mainly cirrus level clouds. Shower chances increase after
12Z this morning, first across the western Southern Tier (KJHW),
then chances advancing into western NY. This activity has been
captured by PROB30 groups at impacted airfields.

The best chance for showers remains in the late afternoon and
evening hours. A few of these showers could be heavy at times. A
warm front advances north during the daylight hours today and
terminals that break into the warm sector will see CIG restrictions
lift. VFR should be abundant by late this afternoon, most likely
only broken by showers moving through. Winds will increase in the
warm sector out of the southwest with gusts up to 20kts.

Thunderstorms become increasingly likely toward 00Z. VSBY and CIG
restrictions in thunderstorms are likely and even IFR or lower
remains possible.

Outlook...

Tonight through Sunday...Periods of rain with non-VFR flight
conditions are expected. Scattered thunderstorms possible tonight.

Sunday night through Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow
showers...with IFR possible in areas of lake effect snow showers
east/southeast of the lakes.

Wednesday...VFR with high pressure moving across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
An easterly flow ahead of a warm front will bring waves to around
four feet on the western waters of Lake Ontario today, for which a
short-lived small craft advisory will be in effect.

Winds will veer to southerly later today and tonight ahead of a cold
front, with waves increasing along the eastern shoreline of Lake
Ontario tonight. Behind a cold front westerly winds will then drive
waves up past four feet across all remaining ice-free lake waters
later tonight and through Sunday evening on Lake Erie and
through Monday afternoon on Lake Ontario.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Tonawanda Creek remains in flood this early morning, with flow
heights continuing to decrease.

Low pressure and its associated warm and cold fronts will bring
additional moderate to possibly heavy showers and thunderstorms
today, and especially tonight. There will be a low risk for
additional flooding due to our still nearly-saturated ground
conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening
         for LOZ042.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...Thomas
HYDROLOGY...Thomas