Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

646
FXUS61 KBUF 242325
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
725 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Winds will increase Thursday ahead of a strong cold front that
will bring a round of showers and a possibly a few thunderstorms
later Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Winds will increase Thursday ahead of a strong cold front that will
bring a round of showers and a possibly a few thunderstorms later
Thursday into Thursday night.

A warm front may bring a few rain showers Wednesday night, before
stalling across southeastern Ontario and far southern Quebec
Thursday morning. A wave of low pressure over the western Great
Lakes early Thursday morning will then quickly slide east along this
stationary front through the morning hours. As the low moves
northeast of the area Thursday afternoon, it will send the boundary
southward through the area as a cold front later Thursday into
Thursday evening. Being solidly in the warm sector Thursday will
allow PWATs to surge over an inch ahead of the boundary. Combined
this with strong forcing owed to a stout LL jet just in advance of
the front, am expecting a fairly heavy, but short-lived slug of rain
to push north to south through the area with the frontal
passage...centered on Thursday evening. Plenty of vertical shear and
moisture will be in place ahead of the front, however the overall
stability of the atmosphere and poor mid level lapse rates are still
expected to preclude much of any severe threat across the majority
of our region, with the better threat remaining to our west and
southwest where better better instability/steeper lapse rates will
in play. That said, the eastern envelope of the better instability
gradient/steeper lapse rates may edge into southwestern NYS very
late Thursday/Thursday evening, for which SPC now has that area in a
Day 3 Marginal Risk with the main threat being damaging winds with
any stronger cells. Otherwise, a few general thunderstorms will be
possible from the Finger Lakes westward that may locally enhance
rainfall. Basin average rainfall amounts will be around a half inch,
with locally higher amounts in thunderstorms. Precipitation may end
as a some light snow showers as a much colder air mass pours back in
across the region later Thursday night into Friday morning behind
the front, however only very light accumulations look possible at
this time with much drier air quickly building in. This cold air
mass will linger through at least the first half of the weekend.

Limited shower activity should allow at least partial mixing of the
strong LLJ to the surface (dependent on cloud cover) later Thursday
morning into the afternoon hours. Combined with a tightening
pressure gradient, this will bring increasing winds through the day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid and upper level clouds will remain this evening ahead of a
weak frontal system approaching from the upper Great Lakes. An
associated cold front will make it as far south as northern NY
tonight bringing the chance for a few light snow showers to the
higher terrain well inland from Lake Ontario, however may bring
a couple periods of MVFR/low VFR CIGS across the eastern Lake
Ontario region (KART) overnight into Wednesday morning as the
boundary lingers nearby.

Otherwise, VFR conditions expected across the remainder of the area
through the 00Z TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR deteriorating to IFR late afternoon and evening with
rain developing. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Rain may end as a
brief period of light snow showers late Thursday night.

Friday...Areas of MVFR CIGS with a chance of scattered light snow
showers in the morning, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate chop will continue on Lake Ontario through tonight
before winds subside early Wednesday morning.

Southwesterly breezes will start to increase Thursday ahead of a
cold front that will cross the Lower Great Lakes first half of
Thursday night, with a round of Small Craft Advisories possible on
Lake Ontario second half of Thursday night through Friday afternoon
under a freshening N to NW flow in the wake of the cold frontal
passage.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM