Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

053
FXUS61 KBUF 101030
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
530 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased probability of snow showers across the higher terrain east
of Lake Erie tonight, with minor changes in snowfall amounts
across the forecast area through Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A widespread light to moderate snow will begin to impact north-
central NY today, while isolated areas of western NY may see a brief
period of a wintry mix when snow changes to rain. Due to the frozen
ground, precipitation could result in isolated slick spots.

2) Lake enhanced-upslope snows become focused southeast and south of
Lake Ontario Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A widespread light to moderate snow will begin to
impact north-central NY today, while isolated areas of western NY
may see a brief period of a wintry mix when snow changes to rain.
Due to the frozen ground, precipitation could result in isolated
slick spots.

An area of low pressure is located north of Lake Superior this
morning. Warm air advection and increasing moisture will overcome
the dry low levels and light snow will move across western NY this
morning. A shortwave trough and strong thermal convergence will push
the area of snow northward into the Eastern Lake Ontario region by
this afternoon. Western NY will become entrenched in the warm sector
of this system and temperatures will rise to the mid to upper 30s.
As warmer air builds into the region from west to east, there still
remains a slight chance of a brief period of a wintry mix. This
would be spotty in nature and short-lived. Rain is expected to
develop as a cold front approaches from Ontario later today.
Rainfall amounts are expected to less than a tenth of an inch mainly
across the I-90 corridor from Weedsport to Buffalo. Due to the
recent cold snap, there is the potential for some slick spots as
rain may freeze on contact.

Best forcing looks to be across the North Country through tonight.
Widespread light to moderate snow will transition to lake enhanced
and upslope snow tonight. Snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches is expect
ed today. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 11am to 1am
Thursday.

A cold, westerly flow will build back into the region tonight and
snow showers will develop with focus across the higher terrain east
of Lake Erie and across upslope areas east of Lake Ontario. Snowfall
amounts of 1-2" are possible across the higher terrain east of Lake
Erie, and 2-4" east of Lake Ontario.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Lake enhanced-upslope snows become focused southeast
and south of Lake Ontario Wednesday through Thursday.

Colder air spilling in behind the departed low and synoptic moisture
filling back in will likely support a hybrid lake enhanced-upslowp
snows Wednesday, then transitions to pure lake snows Wednesday night
into Thursday. With 850 hPa falling to -10C to -12C on Wednesday and
plenty of synoptic moisture wrapping back in over the region,
favored areas east-southeast of the lakes and the higher terrain
(upslope areas) will see the greatest accumulations overall.

Synoptic moisture begins to get stripped away Thursday with lake
snows dimiishing as we head into Thursday evening. Weak surface ridge
brings a brief period of quite weather Thursday night into Friday,
ahead of the next clipper system which may bring another round of
accumulating snows to the North Country.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A clipper system will move north of the Great Lakes region through
tonight. Increasing moisture and lift ahead of this system will
support an arm of light snow to move briefly into Niagara
Falls/Buffalo, before moving east across Rochester this morning.
There remains a non-zero chance of spotty sleet or freezing rain on
the backside of the light snow from west to east for an hour or two
between 12-16z. Dry air will move into western NY from west to east
and cut off precipitation for another brief period. Light rain
showers develop across western NY this afternoon and flight
conditions will worsen to MVFR/IFR. A cold front will usher in
cooler weather and snow showers are expected tonight, with focus
across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie.

East of Lake Ontario, light to moderate snow is expected late this
morning through this afternoon. Colder conditions will keep snow
across the region through tonight. Widespread VFR conditions will
drop to IFR in snow later this morning through tonight. Snow will be
more focused east of KART late tonight, potentially improving
flight conditions at the TAF site.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...Restrictions possible in scattered
snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light offshore winds will become southwest with speeds approaching
15 knots today. A gradual shift to the west-northwest is expected
tonight into Wednesday with speeds of 20-25 knots with an eventual
need for small craft headlines during this time frame.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are
now ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...TMA