Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

392
FXUS61 KBUF 271726
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
126 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Comfortable temperatures and humidity through the rest of the
weekend.

2) Dangerous heat and humidity much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Comfortable temperatures and humidity through
the rest of the weekend.

Most areas will remain dry this afternoon, although a few spotty
showers and thunderstorms are possible with peak daytime heating
across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and east of Lake
Ontario. Coverage of any convection will remain sparse, with any
showers quickly ending early this evening as the boundary layer
stabilizes.

Comfortable temperatures and humidity will continue through the rest
of the weekend with gradual day to day warming. High pressure
centered just north of the Great Lakes will provide good radiational
cooling conditions tonight, with lows dropping back into the mid to
upper 50s in most areas. Expect some patchy fog again overnight
through Sunday morning, mainly across the valleys of the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes.

Sunday, temperatures will creep up a few more degrees with ongoing
weak warm advection. Highs will reach the lower 80s for lower
elevations, and mid to upper 70s for higher terrain and the
lakeshores. There is a slight chance of a pop up shower or
thunderstorm across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier Sunday
afternoon, but the better chance of more organized convection will
remain south of the area across Pennsylvania.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous heat and humidity likely much of next
week.

Model and ensemble guidance continue to be in good agreement with
the evolution of a classic heat dome across the eastern half of the
United States next week. A strong and expansive mid/upper level
ridge will center on the Ohio Valley by Tuesday, and then remain in
place while expanding to the east coast through the end of next
week. 850MB temps rise to near +20C by Tuesday afternoon, then
remain +20C or higher through at least Friday.

Temperatures will begin to ramp up Monday, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Dewpoints will remain tolerable however, with upper 50s
to lower 60s dewpoints yielding no appreciable heat index above the
actual temperature.

The heat and humidity will begin in earnest Tuesday, with highs in
the low to mid 90s for lower elevations away from the immediate
lakeshores. Highs will continue to run in the mid 90s for lower
elevations Wednesday through Friday, with even a few upper 90s
readings possible. Dewpoints will become oppressive, likely in the
low to mid 70s much of the time from Tuesday onward. This will yield
a heat index in the 100-105F range for many lower elevation
locations each afternoon, possibly reaching or exceeding heat
warning criteria (105F) on some days. Very warm and muggy nights
will offer little relief from the heat for those without air
conditioning, and increase the likelihood of heat related illness
for vulnerable populations.

Much of the time will be dry, but the eastern Great Lakes will be
near the northern periphery of the ridge axis. This may allow for a
few periods of thunderstorms. The best chances will likely be
Tuesday as a warm front crosses the eastern Great Lakes, and then
again late next week into the Fourth of July weekend as the ridge
axis begins to flatten and the westerlies settle back southward into
the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Southern edge of weak mid level trough will graze northern NY,
possibly forcing an isolated shower or storm across the North
Country, best chance across the higher terrain. Meanwhile,
stationary boundary over PA will sag a bit further south, but still
remain close enough to potentially trigger a few scattered
showers/storms across our three southernmost counties along the
NY/PA border. Otherwise, high pressure to our north will keep an
easterly wind component in place this afternoon, limiting the amount
of lake shadowing typically observed across our area on any given
day. Expecting mainly FEW-SCT decks in the 040-060kft range, however
brief periods of marginal MVFR decks will be possible, especially
across the higher terrain (KJHW).

Diurnal cu will fade this evening with the setting sun, leaving
mainly VFR conditions in place tonight, however fog will again be a
question for some areas. Not expecting much in the way of widespread
impacts from fog across the majority of our area, with the best
chance for fog across the Southern Tier, especially in the valleys.
Other player again will be the amount of cloud cover near the NY/PA
line with the stationary boundary still lingering to the south. Even
if a period of low VFR/marginal MVFR CIGS do form across the
Southern Tier, there will likely be breaks in the cloud cover, which
may allow for areas of fog to form.

Any fog/lower clouds lift out early Sunday, leaving widespread VFR
flight conditions through the day, with a light east to northeast
wind.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds on Lake Erie will produce a light to moderate chop
Sunday, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria.

Otherwise, light winds and minimal wave action are expected tonight
through Monday with a weak pressure gradient over the lower Great
Lakes. Southwest winds will increase Tuesday into the 10-15 knot
range, with similar winds each day through the end of next week.
This will produce choppy conditions at times on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario, but winds and waves will likely remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Hitchcock