Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

230
FXUS61 KBUF 222315
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
715 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added some fog into the forecast for higher terrain tonight,
otherwise no significant changes with the evening update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain will taper off from north to south tonight.

2) There is a chance of light snow showers and freezing drizzle
south of Lake Ontario late tonight through Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain will taper off from north to south
tonight.

A cold front and associated frontal wave over central PA will move
south and away from the area tonight. The front has become anabatic
in nature, with the layout of mid level forcing for ascent and upper
level jet support resulting in frontogenesis and ascent lingering
well into the cold side of the boundary.

An area of rain along and south of the NYS Thruway early this
evening will continue to shrink in coverage and weaken through the
evening hours, with the last of the rain ending across the Southern
Tier by around midnight. Increasing cold advection may allow for a
few wet snowflakes to mix in for an hour or two before the rain
ends, with minimal accumulation.

Low stratus in the northerly upslope flow regime will continue
to intersect the hilltops in some areas, with higher terrain fog
tonight across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and east of Lake
Ontario.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is a chance of light snow showers and freezing
drizzle south of Lake Ontario late tonight through Monday morning.

Cold air advection will move into the region behind an exiting cold
front tonight. Mid to upper level moisture will shift southward,
while low-level moisture remains in place across western NY. A
northeast flow across Lake Ontario and 850mb temperatures falling to
-10C will result in a shallow mixed layer to 4k feet, below the DGZ.
Light snow showers and/or freezing drizzle are possible across the
Lower Genesee Valley/Rochester Metro westward across Western NY late
tonight through daybreak Monday. Deepening cold air and moisture
should allow for ice nuclei to be introduced into the top of the
cloud bearing layer by mid morning Monday, ending any risk of
freezing drizzle and changing any spotty precip to all snow.

The low level flow will back to the northwest as a shortwave trough
moves across the forecast area Monday through Monday night. Cold air
advection across the Lower Great Lakes and an uptick in moisture
will support a period of snow showers with lake enhancement and
upslope east of Lake Erie and southeast of Lake Ontario Monday
afternoon through Monday evening. This will be short lived as a
strong high from the Mid-West builds into the region. A dusting to
an inch of snow is possible in the most persistent snow showers and
mainly across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front and associated frontal wave over PA this evening will
continue to move south and away from the area tonight. An area of
light rain will continue to lag behind the surface cold front across
Western and Central NY along and south of the NYS Thruway this
evening before ending around midnight. A few wet snowflakes may mix
in for the last hour or two of precipitation in some areas as cold
air continues to filter into the region. CIGS for lower elevations
will improve to mainly MVFR later this evening, with IFR continuing
across higher terrain overnight through Monday morning. The low
stratus will intersect the higher terrain at times with ridgetop
fog/mountain obscuration this evening through the overnight hours.

Late tonight through early Monday morning a weak lake response and
northerly upslope flow may support some patchy light snow or
freezing drizzle in a few spots south of Lake Ontario. Cold air will
continue to deepen and end the risk of freezing drizzle by mid
morning Monday, with any remaining spotty precip falling as snow.
The IFR CIGS across higher terrain will improve to MVFR Monday
morning, with MVFR CIGS then lingering through the day across most
of the region.

A strong mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday
afternoon and evening, supporting an increase in coverage of lake
effect and diurnal snow showers across Western NY. This will produce
areas of MVFR with spotty IFR in the more organized snow showers.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR with rain showers likely and a chance of snow
showers.

Friday...MVFR/VFR with a slight chance of rain and snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move south and away from the lower Great Lakes
tonight. In the wake of the front north/northeast winds will
increase tonight. This will especially be the case across the
central and eastern portion of Lake Ontario, where a moderately
brisk flow will develop tonight and will bring a period of Small
Craft Advisory worthy conditions to areas between Braddock Bay and
Mexico Bay tonight through midday Monday.

Winds will then become northwesterly and diminish to 15 knots or
less on Monday...before another brief uptick in winds possibly
develops across Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario late Monday and
Monday evening that may bring near Small Craft Advisory conditions
for a few hours.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK