Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

220
FXUS61 KBUF 090632
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
232 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small increases to winds and chances for snow behind a cold
front Wednesday night into Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Windy today, especially northeast of Lake Erie. Well above
average temperatures return today.

2) Snowmelt from mild temperatures through mid-week, along with
widespread rainfall will bring the potential for flooding
through the week.

3) A pair of frontal boundaries will bring rain showers and a few
thunderstorms to the region Tuesday through Wednesday.

4) Significantly colder air behind a strong cold front will support
minor accumulating lake enhanced/effect snow late Wednesday night
through Thursday.

5) Active pattern continues through early next week with several
shots of colder air and chances for snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Windy today, especially northeast of Lake Erie. Well
above average temperatures return today.

A 40-50 knot low level jet will remain overhead today, with surface
gusts will increase from late morning through the afternoon with
diurnal heating and improvement to boundary layer mixing. Expect
gusts of 25 to 35 mph areawide, and 35 to 45 mph across the
Niagara Frontier northeast of Lake Erie. The low level jet will
exit tonight, allowing for winds to rapidly diminish during the
evening.

Steady warm advection will allow 850 mb temperatures to climb to
around +9C this afternoon. This will support highs in the 65-70
degree range for the lower elevations of Western and Central New
York away from lake influences, with upper 50s to lower 60s
across the North Country. A southwest flow off the Lake Erie ice
field will keep the Buffalo Metro area much cooler. On the flip
side, the gusty southwest winds should prevent a lake breeze
from developing along the south shore of Lake Ontario, with warm
temperatures extending all the way to the lakeshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Snowmelt from mild temperatures through mid-week,
along with widespread rainfall will bring the potential for flooding
through the week.

Temperatures through the middle of the week will remain well above
normal across western and north central New York. This will be
the case for both afternoon highs and overnight lows, with
temperatures expected to remain above freezing through most of
Wednesday. This will allow for remaining snow on the ground to
continue to melt and contribute to runoff from earlier rainfall
events the past few days and for upcoming rainfall expected
during the middle of the week.

Saturated ground conditions are found across most of the area after
around half to one inch of rain fell over the past few days, and
snow melt added to runoff.

An area of low pressure will track across the northern Ohio Valley
and to the southern Great Lakes Tuesday night. The system will then
near/cross Lake Erie and then Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence
Valley Wednesday. Out ahead of the approaching surface low, rain
potential will start to increase through the afternoon on Tuesday
with a weak stationary front draped over or just north of the
area. As the system approaches western New York, steadier rain
will increase as forcing and moisture increases later Tuesday
night. A potent shortwave trough dropping south out of Canada
behind the surface low will start to increase forcing and
increase rain coverage and intensity as the low crosses the
region.

Rainfall amounts of one to two inches looks possible with this
system, and will have the potential to cause rises on area rivers
and creeks. Combined with saturated ground conditions and continued
snow melt, the risk for flooding is increasing. The greatest
potential for flooding is expected for areas east of Lake Ontario,
where the most snow coverage still exists. Areas across the Tug
Hill, such as at Highmarket, still have over 30 inches of snow on
the ground as of Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A pair of frontal boundaries will bring rain showers
and a few thunderstorms to the region Tuesday through Wednesday.

A pair of Pacific-based waves will phase on the leeward side of the
Rockies Tuesday through Wednesday, leading to surface cyclogenesis
in the central Mississippi Valley. The strengthening low will track
northeast through the central/eastern Great Lakes through Wednesday
evening. Leading shortwave energy rippling across southern Ontario
will interact with a stalled boundary over the forecast area on
Tuesday and bring a few rounds of scattered showers through the
evening. Convective instability looks quite limited with this
activity so the threat for thunderstorms should initially be low.

The approaching low will cause the stalled front to lift northward
as a warm front Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The increasing
amount of elevated instability, Gulf-based moisture, and LLJ forcing
in the warm sector will cause widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms to move into the region. This activity will likely
peak in coverage late Wednesday afternoon and early evening once the
system`s powerful cold front begins to approach from the west.

With the earlier warm frontal elevated convection likely precluding
much surface-based instability from forming across the eastern Great
Lakes, the threat for severe weather through Wednesday night appears
low. Convective potential also be hampered by breezy winds shifting
southwesterly ahead of the cold front, which will add a high amount
of CIN to the environment downwind of the icy Lake Erie. This said,
will continue monitoring as models suggest conditionally unstable (6-
7C/km) low to mid-level lapse rates with strong 50-60kts of 0-6km
bulk shear present, so could see a marginal threat emerging though
confidence is low.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Significantly colder air behind a strong cold front
will support minor accumulating lake enhanced/effect snow late
Wednesday night through Thursday.

Wednesday night`s powerful cold front will send 850mb temps
plummeting from near +12C to -14C in about 12 hours, with many
waking up to sfc temperatures in the 20s (F) Thursday morning.

Accompanying this much more winter-like airmass will be chances for
chances for accumulating snow. The first opportunity for this will
be with some wrap-around and upslope snow immediately behind the
front late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The amount of
available moisture decreases very quickly in this timeframe so
accumulations should be on the order of a dusting to a half inch by
daybreak.

Thereafter, the airmass will be cold enough to support lake enhanced
or pure lake effect snow east of both lakes through the day
Thursday, though again moisture will be a limiting factor. A notable
amount of GEFS/ENS members are more muted the the depth of the
overhead trough and more aggressive with the arrival of drier air,
which if this verifies there will be hardly any activity once the
front clears the region. In addition, the strong mid-March sun angle
will inhibit the ability for more focused bands of lake effect to
form, as well as mitigating the sfc impacts from the snow itself.
Best chances for more impactful (think low-end Advisory) snowfall
will be east of Lake Ontario, mainly across the Tug Hill as better
fetch and moisture linger across the lake with lower ice coverage
than Erie.

Stout high pressure ridging at all levels quickly moves in Thursday
night, which should completely shut down any lingering lake response
by Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 5...Active pattern continues through early next week
with several shots of colder air and chances for snow.

The upper level jet stream will likely remain across the northern
tier of the CONUS through early next week, which will aim several
more low pressure systems at the Great Lakes. Much higher
uncertainty in the details beyond Thursday night, though
temperatures will largely average below normal for mid-March. Long
range guidance remains in reasonable agreement in regards to brief
warm-ups with the approach of each system being offset by deep polar
continental air wrapping in behind them. Broadly speaking these
temperature profiles will support both rain and snow chances, with
the airmass likely becoming cold enough for lake enhancement/effect
at times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will prevail the next 24 hours with a dry and
warm airmass building into the eastern Great Lakes. Cirrus level
clouds and some scattered mid level clouds will slide across the
region today. It will be quite windy today with a persistent 40
to 50 knot low level jet overhead. Low level wind shear will
remain in the terminals through 14z, with lighter surface winds
and the strong low level jet in place just off the deck.
Improved boundary layer mixing will remove the low level wind
shear after 14z, but also result in higher surface gusts. Expect
gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range in most areas and up to 40
knots northeast of Lake Erie, including KBUF and KIAG from late
morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers in the afternoon.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR with occasional rain
showers. Chance of a few isolated thunderstorms. Windy Wednesday
night.

Thursday...Areas of MVFR/IFR with snow showers likely. Windy.

Friday...Areas of MVFR with rain/snow showers likely. Windy.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure ridge will slowly drift southeast of the lower
Great Lakes through tonight, as a strong cold front approaches
from the northwest. Southwest winds less than 15 knots this
morning will pick up during the day with speeds of 15 to 25
knots, especially on the western end of Lake Ontario and Lake
Erie, including the Niagara River. Small craft headlines in
place for these areas into this evening.

Winds will lighten tonight and trend more variable Tuesday at less
than 12 knots. Frontal boundary across the lower Great Lakes by
midweek with a wave of low pressure riding northeast along it will
causing winds to trend more southerly on Lake Erie and easterly on
Lake Ontario, with speeds likely remaining below 20 knots.

The cold front sweeps through the lower Great Lakes Wednesday into
Thursday as a strong wave moves northeast into southern Quebec.
Strong west then northwest winds will develop behind the front
with small craft headlines likely being required on both lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding will continue along Tonawanda Creek today. The
creek crested at Batavia last evening, with the flood crest
then progressing downstream towards the Rapids gauge later
today, with a crest occurring there tonight. Minor flooding will
impact low lying areas along the creek in northwest Genesee and
northeast Erie counties.

Some road closures are possible in low areas along the creek
from the Tonawanda Reservation downstream through the northern
portions of Newstead, Clarence, and Amherst. Given the expected
crest in the low end of the minor flood category, flooding
impacts should be limited to the typical flood prone areas along
the creek and tributary creeks.

There is still significant snowpack across the higher terrain of
the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks. Rapid snowmelt
will continue through the middle of the week, and another
significant rainfall will produce 1 to 2 inches of QPF Wednesday
through Wednesday night. The combination of already high flows
and runoff from ongoing snowmelt and additional rain will
increase the flood risk east of Lake Ontario mid to late week.
This includes the Black River and other rivers that drain the
Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042-
         043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK/PP/SW/TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock/TMA