Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

944
FXUS61 KBUF 051024
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
624 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of fog through the early morning hours.

2) Unsettled weather will continue today through Tuesday, with the
most persistent rain across the southern portion of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of fog through the early morning hours.

A weak east-west oriented front will continue to sag slowly south
into northern PA this morning. Weak northeast upslope flow in its
wake along with residual low level moisture will promote areas of
low stratus and fog early this morning. The most prevalent fog and
lowest visibilities will likely be in areas which received rainfall
yesterday. The fog will quickly dissipate by 8 to 9 AM.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather will continue today through
Tuesday, with the most persistent rain across the southern portion
of the area.

An east-west frontal zone will stall just south of the area today
and linger through Tuesday, supporting a continuation of unsettled
weather especially across the southern portion of the area.

Today, deep moisture will remain in place across the Southern Tier
in close proximity to the stalled frontal zone over northern PA. A
series of small scale convectively modulated shortwaves will move
atop the frontal zone and support periods of enhanced ascent.
Scattered showers this morning will increase in coverage midday
through the afternoon as modest diurnal instability develops, with a
few scattered thunderstorms developing as well. A few storms may
produce locally heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, high pressure building
across Ontario and Quebec will feed drier mid level air southward to
the Canadian border, and result in a sharp northern edge to rain
chances. Expect mainly dry weather to prevail today along and north
of the NYS Thruway.

Tonight, most of the thunder will end early this evening, and
showers will diminish in coverage to scattered showers across the
Southern Tier. Mainly dry weather will continue along and north of
the NYS Thruway through the first half of the night. Overnight, a
gradually deepening mid level trough upstream across the central
Great Lakes combined with weak low pressure over Ohio will allow
deeper moisture to begin to advect northward, with scattered showers
moving north towards the south shore of Lake Ontario by daybreak
Monday.

Monday through Monday night, the weak mid level trough upstream
across the central Great Lakes will move slowly east towards the
lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weak, diffuse
low will drift from the Ohio Valley east towards the Mid Atlantic.
Large scale ascent ahead of the mid level shortwave will combine
with moisture convergence and weak frontogenesis north of the
surface low to support occasional showers Monday through Monday
night. The most persistent rain and highest QPF will be across the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, although a few showers will
occasionally reach the south shore of Lake Ontario as well. A few
embedded thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon and evening
mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes with locally heavy
rainfall possible. The lowest rain chances through the period will
be across the North Country farther removed from forcing and
moisture.

Tuesday through Tuesday night the mid level trough will gradually
drift southeast of the area, with the surface low moving off the
southern New England coast. Enough moisture may linger Tuesday to
support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly across the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Most of this will end Tuesday night
as the system continues to move away from the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Areas of fog and low stratus will continue early this morning with
residual low level moisture and weak northeast upslope flow behind a
weak cold front drifting south of the area. Areas of IFR will
continue through early to mid morning before quick improvement to
VFR for most of the area, with the exception of the higher terrain
of the Southern Tier where MVFR CIGS will linger today.

A frontal boundary stalled across northern PA along with associated
deep moisture and a series of mid level shortwaves will continue to
support occasional showers and a few scattered thunderstorms across
the Southern Tier today. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue much of
the day across the Southern Tier, with reduced VSBY in areas of
heavier showers and thunderstorms. There will be a sharp northern
cutoff to the rain, with mainly dry conditions and VFR along and
north of the NYS Thruway.

Tonight, showers will continue across the Southern Tier this evening
with diminishing coverage and intensity. Overnight, a mid level
trough approaching from the west will allow scattered showers to
expand northward towards the south shore of Lake Ontario. VFR will
prevail for most of the area. The one exception will be across the
higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, where low
stratus and associated MVFR/IFR CIGS will expand overnight.

Outlook...

Monday...Occasional showers, especially across the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes with areas of MVFR/IFR. Less rain farther north, with
VFR/MVFR CIGS.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms, mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled just south of the lower
Great Lakes through Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build
from Hudson Bay today to Quebec Monday, gradually tightening the
pressure gradient. Northeast winds will increase somewhat today
through tonight with a light chop developing on Lake Ontario and
Lake Erie. Northeast winds will increase further on Monday, with
winds and waves approaching Small Craft Advisory criteria on the
west half of Lake Ontario.

Light to moderate chop will continue in east to northeast winds
Tuesday before a return to light winds by Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock