Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

381
FXUS61 KBUF 071824
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
124 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory for Jefferson county has expired.

Gale and Heavy Freezing Warnings for western Lake Ontario have
expired.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake effect snow will continue south and southeast of Lake
Ontario through tonight, with blowing and drifting snow.

2) Dangerously cold wind chills between 15 and 35 below zero are
expected through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Lake effect snow will continue south and southeast
of Lake Ontario through tonight, with blowing and drifting snow.

Very cold northwest flow (850 mb temperatures around -28C) producing
multi-lake bands downwind of the Great Lakes this afternoon. Most of
the activity remains focused south and southeast of Lake Ontario.
Extensive ice cover limiting activity off Lake Erie.

Multiple narrow lake bands will continue through Sunday south and
southeast of Lake Ontario, but moisture will slowly diminish
with time. Due to the very cold airmass, a fluffy few additional
inches of snow is possible in the most persistent bands through
Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold wind chills between 15 and 35 below
zero are expected through Sunday.

Arctic air continues to pour into the region. 850mb temperatures
bottom out around -28C today, these are expected to be some of the
coldest 850 mb temperatures ever for the month of February in
Buffalo sounding climatology. The lowest 850 mb temperature measured
in February is -28.5C on February 13th 2016. The core of the coldest
air aloft will slowly lift eastward across the North Country into
northern New England tonight through Sunday.

Northwest winds will slowly diminish tonight through Sunday, but a
with the arctic airmass in place and sub zero air temperatures,
dangerous wind chill values from 15 to 35 below zero will continue
through at least Sunday morning. The coldest values will be across
the North Country and western Southern Tier. Cold weather headlines
are in effect for the entire region tonight and Sunday. Though air
temperatures Sunday night may be the colder that tonight, an
advancing surface ridge will bring lighter winds and may keep
wind chill values above advisory thresholds

An upper level ridge will build into the Plains the start of the
work week with a less harsh airmass expected to start the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Very cold northwest flow will continue to produce localized lake
effect snow showers south and southeast of Lake Ontario through
tonight. Gusty winds will produce areas of blowing snow through
this afternoon. Winds will diminish tonight with blowing snow
becoming less likely.

Overall, MVFR flight conditions will continue across western NY into
tonight, however narrow bands of lake effect snow showers and
blowing snow will reduce flight conditions to IFR or lower at
times, impacting KBUF, KIAG, and KROC. KJHW and KART will have
the greatest chance of going VFR.

Outlook...

Sunday...Areas of IFR in lake effect snow showers south of Lake
Ontario.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, trending to MVFR Tuesday
afternoon.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Restrictions possible in scattered
snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale force northwest winds have diminish below 30 knots this
afternoon. Northwest winds will remain elevated tonight, especially
on Lake Ontario with small craft headlines remaining until Sunday
morning on the eastern basin. Winds will further drop off Sunday,
although northwest winds may reach 15 knots on Lake Ontario.
Winds should become variable at under 10 knots by Monday as high
pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are
now ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-
     002-010>012-019-020-085.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001>005-
     010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003>006-
     013-014.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ006>008.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for NYZ012>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/Thomas/TMA
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...HSK/SW/Thomas/TMA