Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

101
FXUS61 KBUF 052350
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
750 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Bumped up PoPs a little for this afternoon across far Western New
York.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday, with the most
persistent rain across southern portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday,
with the most persistent rain across southern portions of the area.

A stalled out frontal zone will remain draped just to our south
through Monday night...before slowly drifting further southeast
Tuesday and especially Tuesday night. This will keep unsettled
weather in place (particularly across southern portions of the area)
at times through Tuesday...before widespread drier conditions
finally return Tuesday night.

This afternoon a convectively enhanced shortwave will ripple
eastward along the stalled-out frontal zone. An attendant period of
increased moisture/forcing and modest diurnal instability should
support a round of fairly widespread showers along with a few
scattered thunderstorms across areas from southern Erie-Wyoming-
Livingston counties southward...with a few spottier showers also
possible further north across portions of the Niagara Frontier and
interior portions of the Finger Lakes. Meanwhile high pressure over
Ontario/Quebec will keep sufficiently drier air in place across the
remainder of the area...such that locations further north and east
will see dry weather continue to prevail.

As we make our way through this evening...the loss of heating and
subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will allow for the pcpn to
diminish to some leftover spotty showers across the Southern Tier
and the far interior of the Finger Lakes Region...with mainly dry
weather again found further north.

This relative lull in the pcpn will be short-lived however...as a
low-amplitude mid-level trough over the central Great Lakes will
gradually slide eastward and across our region overnight through
Monday night...with an attendant broad/weak surface wave over the
Ohio Valley slowly making its way eastward into the mid-Atlantic
states. Another uptick in moisture and forcing attendant to these
features should result in scattered showers returning to most areas
south of Lake Ontario overnight. As lift and moisture become
maximized during Monday...more numerous/occasional showers will
overspread the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes...which will lie
closest to the surface low track and consequently the best overall
forcing/deepest moisture...and where a few diurnally-driven
thunderstorms may also develop and lead to a potential for localized
heavy rainfall given PWATs of 1.5"-1.75". Elsewhere the showers will
generally tend to become increasingly more scattered with increasing
northward extent...though a few of these may reach as far north as
portions of the North Country...which will lie underneath a weak
inverted trough extending northeastward from the main surface low.

As we push through Monday night...shower coverage and potential will
both tend to slowly diminish from northwest to southeast (but not
end altogether) as the mid-level trough axis and surface low push
further eastward. Lingering moisture/weak diurnal instability along
the slowly departing trough may then potentially allow a few more
widely scattered showers/isolated storms to re-blossom across
interior sections during Tuesday...before high pressure and drier
air/subsidence finally bring a return to more widespread dry
weather Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

For the 00Z TAFs a wavy frontal boundary across PA will linger
across the state through this TAF cycle. Convective waves along
this boundary will continue scattered showers, especially near
the state line (KJHW) through the TAF cycle. Farther to the
north probabilities for showers diminish, with any activity
favoring late morning and early afternoon for KBUF/KIAG and
afternoon for interior Southern Tier and Genesee Valley (KROC).

Additionally, a more moist airmass to the south will bring a
wealth of IFR to MVFR ceiling heights along with patches of IFR
fog tonight, including KJHW, while slightly drier air to the
north will maintain VFR/MVFR ceiling heights through the day.
IFR ceiling heights across the Southern Tier tomorrow morning
will only improve to MVFR/ low end VFR through the afternoon.

Light and variable winds will be common through this TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Lingering MVFR conditions with rain showers
continuing. Less rain farther north, with VFR/MVFR CIGS.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms, mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday and Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled just south of the lower
Great Lakes through Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build
from Hudson Bay today to Quebec Monday, gradually tightening the
pressure gradient. Northeast winds will increase tonight with a
light chop developing on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. Northeast winds
strengthen slightly on Monday, with winds and waves approaching
Small Craft Advisory criteria on the west half of Lake Ontario.

Light to moderate chop will continue in east to northeast winds
Tuesday before a return to light winds by Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock/SGK