Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

012
FXUS61 KBUF 192342
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
642 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very windy conditions will continue through this evening before
subsiding overnight. Accumulating lake effect snow east of the
lakes will diminish overnight, with dry weather through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep low pressure over Quebec will continue its northeastward track
into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. Westerly flow lake effect snow
will continue through this evening with strong winds creating
blowing snow and reduced visibility, with near whiteout conditions.
The greatest snow accumulations will be across the Chautauqua Ridge,
Boston and Wyoming Hills and on the Tug Hill. Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect for these areas through tonight.

Strong westerly winds, gusting up to 55 mph will gradually drop off
this evening and into the early overnight hours as the surface low
continues to advance northeast and a ridge of surface high pressure
over the Mississippi Valley enters the Great Lakes, weakening the
pressure gradient overhead.

Surface high pressure will ridge across the eastern Great Lakes
early Saturday morning. Much drier air will filter into the region,
quickly diminishing lake effect activity, first off of Lake Erie and
then off of Lake Ontario. Dry weather will then persist through
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure slips off the Mid Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening
as the next area of low pressure moves rapidly east from Ontario
into quebec as it passes just south of James Bay. Similar to the
last area of low pressure, two separate cold fronts will accompany
this system as well. First moisture lacking cold front moves quickly
across the region Saturday evening, possibly kicking off a weak lake
enhanced band of rain and snow northeast of both Lake Erie and
Ontario. A slushy coating is possible through the early overnight,
although temps will be marginal. Marginal moisture and cold air
behind the initial front will allow for some weak westerly flow lake
enhanced snows east of the lakes along with minor upslope snows
second half of Saturday night with a coating to an inch possible in
those areas. Winds will also ramp up once again with southwest winds
veering westerly through the night. Gusts of 25-35 mph will be
common, with a few gusts to 40 mph not out of the question northeast
of Lake Erie.

Secondary cold front slides east across the area Sunday morning
ushering in another shot of chilly air with 850mb temps falling into
the minus mid teens C for Sunday and Sunday night. Better
moisture/lift associated with approaching mid level trough combined
with a fresh batch of cold air aloft will help ignite some
accumulating lake snows Sunday and Sunday night, especially east
then southeast of Lake Ontario. While no big snows are expected
during this timeframe, a few to several inches will be possible east
and east-southeast of Lake Ontario, with an inch or two east of Lake
Erie. Expect gusty west winds up 30-40 mph through the day Sunday,
tapering down later Sunday night as stronger winds off the deck pull
east and surface high pressure approaching from the west relaxes the
pressure gradient.

Some discrepancies continue with regard to the lake effect potential
Sunday night into the start the new work week, lowering the overall
confidence in LES shutting down by Monday morning, at least
completely. Of note, any lingering activity will be mainly minor.
Guidance has come into somewhat better agreement on an area of high
pressure shifting a bit further south of the area, which would allow
a cold west to west-northwest flow to remain in place into at least
Monday morning, with some light LE snow showers potentially
lingering east of the lakes (mainly Lake Ontario) through at least a
portion of Monday. High pressure will eventually win out, as WAA
processes and drier air finally win out before the next system in
the pipeline moves in Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak low passing to the north is advertised to bring a period of
light wet snow Monday night that will transition to a wintry mix and
eventually all rain through the day Tuesday as an attendant warm
front crosses the region. A few rain or wet snow showers may linger
into Tuesday night, before transient high pressure tries to dry
things out for Christmas Eve and much of Christmas Eve night. Medium
range guidance then diverges on the track and timing of the next low
pressure system. This leaves the door open for anything from mainly
dry weather to showers across the area for Christmas Day and Friday.
Higher confidence lies within the temperature forecast for the later
part of the period, with above average temperatures favored for both
Christmas Day and Friday, which would keep any precipitation in the
form of liquid...meaning minimal chances of seeing snow on Christmas
Day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow will maintain IFR or lower conditions at KJHW
tonight. Elsewhere a spray of lake effect snow could briefly
bring IFR conditions at the other terminals tonight.

Strong westerly winds gusting to 35 to 45 knots will drop off
fairly quickly after 06z.

Ridge of surface high pressure will slide across the region
Saturday, supporting dry weather and all TAF sites to improve to VFR.

Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR/VFR in scattered light snow showers.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with scattered showers.

Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
In the wake of a passing strong low pressure system,
southwesterly to westerly gales up to 45 knots on the eastern
half of Lake Ontario and up to 40 knots on the eastern half of
Lake Erie through this evening. Winds will gradually diminish
overnight as the pressure gradient weakens.

The next low pressure system will quickly follow, supporting winds
to increase to gale force again Saturday night and lasting through
Sunday night. This being said, a Gale Watch is in effect for both
Lakes for this time period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ001>008-010>014-
     019>021-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ012-019-
     020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening
         for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...EAJ/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...EAJ/TMA