Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

116
FXUS61 KBUF 211805
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
205 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A mix of snow and rain east of Lake Ontario tonight.

2) Widespread rain Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday
night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A mix of snow and rain east of Lake Ontario tonight.

Clipper low will track along a baroclinic zone orientated NW to SE
across the Great Lakes, with the center of the low sliding from
the upper Great Lakes tonight to northern New York Sunday. A
period of warm advection snow will develop east of Lake Ontario
tonight before changing to mainly rain by Sunday morning, as
warmer air spreads northward. A brief mix with sleet/freezing
rain is possible before the transition to all rain. Snow
accumulation should be minor (<2") with latest HREF probabilities
showing a 10% to 20% of amounts greater than 2 inches.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread rain Sunday, possibly ending as light
snow Sunday night.

Clipper low slides across New York State Sunday sending a cold
front south through the area. This will bring a round of rain
to areas south of Lake Ontario. Rainfall amounts generally a
tenth to a quarter inch. Colder air filtering in Sunday night
may bring a change to all snow, but any accumualations will be
very light, with HREF probabilities showing only about 10% for
amounts greater than an inch.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS are expected to lift into the VFR range areawide as some low
level dry air associated with high pressure passing by to the north
works in this afternoon.

Tonight...Terminals south of Lake Ontario are expected to remain VFR
through much of tonight south of a quasi-stationary boundary draped
from southeast Ontario Province ESE across the eastern Lake Ontario.
Deteriorating conditions (MVFR/possible IFR VSBY at times) are
expected to re-develop north of this boundary across the North
Country (KART) overnight as a weak wave of low pressure riding ESE
along this boundary brings a period of light snow at the onset this
evening, gradually changing over to light rain through the second
half of tonight. A period of LLWS will be possible second half of
tonight for areas south of Lake Ontario as a LL jet segment works
ESE across the western NY.

Sunday...Conditions will gradually deteriorate region-wide as a
Clipper system pushes through Sunday morning, followed by a trailing
cold front Sunday afternoon...both bringing a period of rain to the
area. Expect MVFR conditions to develop south of Lake Ontario during
the morning hours, with IFR North Country. Conditions will worsen
through the afternoon with widespread IFR conditions developing as
the cold front slowly presses south through the region.

Outlook...

Sunday night...IFR improving to mainly MVFR with rain tapering off
as light wet snow.

Monday...Mainly MVFR with scattered snow showers.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with chances for rain or snow showers.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR with snow changing to rain.

&&

.MARINE...
A clipper low approaching from the northwest will cause easterly
winds to increase on Lake Ontario this evening. Northeasterly winds
will briefly increase on Lake Erie as well, though small craft
headlines are not anticipated.

Light to moderate onshore flow will develop on the lower Great Lakes
Sunday, with northerly winds further strengthening Sunday night
behind a cold front. This may result in a period small craft
advisory conditions on Lake Ontario, particularly the eastern
end of the lake. Winds become northwesterly and diminish to 15
knots or less Monday.

Calmer conditions are expected through mid week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...PP/TMA