Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

181
FXUS61 KBUF 270946
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
546 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather returns Tuesday, then begins turning cooler
Wednesday and last through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather returns Tuesday, then begins
turning cooler Wednesday and last through the rest of the week.

High pressure will support fine spring weather across the entire
Lower Lakes region today. As the ridge drifts to our east we will
see return southerly flow develop and pick-up across the area. This
will help to boost afternoon temperatures well into 60s to low 70s.

A deepening low pressure system over the Midwest region will track
northeast tonight into the upper Great Lakes. A vigorous low-level
jet ( +50 knots) with this system will arrive across our region late
tonight and early Tuesday morning. Given south to southeast flow,
there is the potential that we could see some gusty downslope winds
(45-50 mph), especially across the higher terrain south of
Rochester/Buffalo and off the Chautauqua ridge. With the arrival of
the front, expect some measure of showers Tuesday and even a few
rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out. As was noted...as the front
moves east into the Finger Lakes region and North Country the LLJ
weakens and with overall lack of instability will limit shower
coverage.

A brief lull or gap in precipitation chances develops Tuesday night
ahead of the next potentially soaking rainfall. That`s not to say we
will be precipitation free just less in terms of shower coverage.
Attention turns to an area of low pressure tracking ENE across the
Ohio Valley Wednesday. Given advertised favorable jet dynamics
(right entrance region) and deep moisture streaming north across the
area (PW values 1-1.10") we could see another soaking rainfall
across the region. With the departure of the low Wednesday evening
its cold front will sweep across the region with a much colder
airmass spilling in across the Lower Lakes. In fact, 850 T`s are
expected to tumble to -3C to -6C behind the cold front beginning
Wednesday night. A slow lumbering closed low will then maintain a
chilly cyclonic flow across the region the rest of the week into the
weekend. Temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be unseasonably
cool with highs expected in the 40s to right around 50F. We are
`likely` to not see much improvement temperature wise until Sunday
or until early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flight conditions will remain at VFR levels through tonight with a
large area of high pressure to the northeast and as a ridge crosses
the area through the TAF cycle. Some valley fog has developed
this morning for areas of the Western Southern Tier, but this
fog should remain far enough away from the JHW terminal to not
cause reductions to VSBY.

Light and variable winds this morning will increase today out of the
southeast, but remain at or below 10 knots for most areas, with
gusts to 15 knots at times. Winds will pickup some tonight in the 15-
20 knot range with gusts of around 25 knots, and possibly higher for
the downslope areas. Some LLWS will be possible during the later
portion of the night tonight as a LLJ moves into the area.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...IFR/MVFR with scattered rain showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR, with an isolated rain or overnight wet snow
shower.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes region will
slowly exit off to our east today. Expect mainly light winds and
wave action for much of the day, with some chop developing on the
western end of Lake Ontario by late this afternoon. South to
southeast winds strengthen tonight into Tuesday, which will support
small craft conditions but the higher wave heights will remain in
the Canadian waters. Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will approach
the area Wednesday and then send its cold front through the lakes
Wednesday night. With the frontal passage expect strengthening west
to northwest flow which will likely support another round of small
craft conditions that lasts through much of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AR