Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

067
FXUS61 KBUF 031738
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
138 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minimal changes to the forecast with this package update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Post peak heat and humidity will continue to ease through the
holiday weekend, though still above normal warmth.

2) Showers and thunderstorms likely at times through the weekend, a
few of which may be strong to severe.

3) Showers and thunderstorms remain possible to start the new work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Post peak heat and humidity will continue to ease
through the holiday weekend, though still above normal warmth.

A 596 dm ridge centered over the Southeast this afternoon will
weaken to around 590 dm and ease to the seaboard by Sunday...and
this will allow for 850 hPa temperatures to lower from around +20C
this afternoon to +16C Sunday afternoon as the core of the heat
drops southward. Pwats will also lower, from around 2.00 inches this
afternoon down to 1.50 inches Sunday, with the potential for sub
1.00 inch Pwats across the North Country Sunday.

The lowering of both heat and humidity will continue the downward
trend in apparent temperatures, such that todays mid 90s to lower
100s oppressive heat index values lower to upper 80s for Saturday
and lower 80s for heat indices for Sunday. Like recent days the max
heat index values will focus upon the Lake Ontario lake plain and
through the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. A heat advisory
will remain in effect through 8 PM this evening...and this will be
the last of the heat headlines with this heat wave.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms likely at times through
the weekend, a few of which may be strong to severe.

Several convective shortwaves will pass across our region through
the weekend...these ahead of a deeper shortwave trough that will
remain across the Western Great Lakes through the weekend.

Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will focus across areas
south of Lake Ontario, within a higher moisture rich airmass, and a
theta-E ridge situated across WNY. Initial development is presently
upon lingering outflow and lake breeze boundaries. This developing
lake breeze boundary may keep areas northeast of Lake Erie,
including the Buffalo metro dry through a good portion of the
afternoon, with a shower or thunderstorm possible late afternoon
or early evening with the weakening of the lake breeze boundary.

While high-res models are in poor agreement, they do focus the
stronger parameters for severe weather today with a 2000 J/KG MUCAPE
environment supporting taller storms, coupled with a 40 knot jet at
10K feet. Though favorable 0-6 km shear values remain across our
north, the taller storms will support strong downdrafts of which some
may become severe. A high melting layer will make for an unfavorable
environment for large hail, though smaller hail cannot be ruled out.

By Saturday the environment for severe storms will settle
southward, with better instability and wind flow near the State
line. This will line up with SPCs marginal risk outlined across our
southern zones...with again straightline winds the main focus for
severe potential.

A weak frontal boundary will be dropping southward across Western
New York supporting these showers and thunderstorms. Though PWATs
will lower some, a still 1.50 to 1.75 inches Pwat values will allow
for heavier downpours with flooding a possibility if any training of
storms occurred along this west to east frontal boundary.

There will still remain showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, but
behind the frontal boundary and lowering instability and wind
fields, the prospects for severe storms with wind damage
lowers...but heavy downpours remain, especially towards the State
line.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Showers and thunderstorms remain possible to start
the new work week.

A deeper, closed, shortwave trough that remained to our west this
holiday weekend will become an open wave as it advances eastward,
passing across the eastern Great Lakes next Monday and Tuesday. This
will continue the potential for showers and thunderstorms,
especially during the peak heating of the afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFs VFR flight conditions are present with a few
showers and thunderstorms beginning to blossom. Within an
environment with favorable instability, storm coverage will increase
through the afternoon hours, especially for the TAF sites south of
Lake Ontario.

While VFR will be dominate this afternoon, any storm will have the
potential to bring brief IFR flight conditions within downpours of
rain. Ceiling heights will largely remain VFR through the evening
hours, but deeper into the night a layer of MVFR stratus may
develop.

Another round of showers is possible late tonight...though
confidence in timing of this convective shortwave is low at this
time.

Any morning showers Saturday will end around 14-16Z, with daytime
instability bringing another round of afternoon
activity...especially south of the Thruway by around 17-18Z.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Monday...VFR/MVFR with occasional showers
and scattered thunderstorms. Greatest coverage of rain over the
southern half of the area. Brief/local IFR in thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms, mainly inland from the lakes.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds tonight through Saturday with minimal wave action.
Behind a weak frontal boundary winds will become northwesterly on
Lake Ontario tomorrow afternoon, and then as surface high pressure
builds southward Sunday winds will predominately become
northeasterly on both lakes. Winds to close out the holiday weekend
and into Monday will remain 15 knots or lower, leaving minimal waves
on the Lakes, though waves may reach 2 feet on the western waters of
Lake Ontario with a longer fetch to the northeast wind

Scattered thunderstorms are expected from midday through early
evening today, and again Saturday. Some storms may produce locally
stronger winds and higher waves.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hot and humid conditions will continue today. Here are the record
maximum and high minimum temperatures for Buffalo, Rochester,
and Watertown.

                    7/3
Buffalo, NY
High Max          94(1949)
Warm Low          74(1911*)

Rochester, NY
High Max          100(1911)
Warm Low          75(1911)

Watertown, NY
High Max          91(1966)
Warm Low          74(1973)


Average Temperatures for July 3
Buffalo
Max           79
Min           62

Rochester
Max           82
Min           61

Watertown
Max           78
Min           58

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas
CLIMATE...Hitchcock