Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

608
FXUS61 KBUF 100134
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
934 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The threat for severe weather this evening has ended.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool but relatively dry weather Sunday through Tuesday with
frost potential Sunday and Monday night.

2) Unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week with
periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool but relatively dry weather Sunday through
Tuesday with frost potential Monday night.

A longwave troughing pattern will remain overhead across the Great
Lakes and into New England Sunday through Tuesday supporting a cool
airmass to linger across the region, resulting in daily high
temperatures to average around 10 degrees below average through the
start of the week. Clear skies and light winds each night (Sunday
and Monday) will support radiational cooling and result in
temperatures to plummet into the 30s supporting the threat for frost
and freeze conditions. Frost will likely form away from the
lakeshores, with freeze conditions possible in the colder Southern
Tier valleys and across Lewis County. Please note the remainder of
the forecast area enters their growing seasons on May 11th.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns by the middle of next
week with periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday.

A potent shortwave trough will dive and rotate through the longwave
trough by Wednesday, likely evolving into a mid-level closed low
settling in across the Great Lakes by the middle of the week. This
being said, chances for rain will increase from west to east late
Tuesday night through Wednesday as this system nears. Chances for
precipitation will continue into the end of the week as the trough
and closed low slowly departs east.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Light showers, generally with VFR visibilities, but MVFR ceiling
heights will pass across our region overnight. All together
these showers will exit east of KART by 12Z. Behind a cold
frontal passage winds will veer to west to northwest overnight,
though within a light surface pressure gradient field lake
breeze circulations will develop late in the period with SW
winds northeast of the Lakes.

Outlook...

Sunday....MVFR CIGs improving to VFR.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with showers and a few thunderstorms.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR improving to MVFR/VFR with showers ending
through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will work from west to east tonight supporting
continued choppy conditions through Sunday, with potential for low
end small craft advisory levels on the east end of Lake Ontario
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ/TMA
AVIATION...Thomas/TMA
MARINE...EAJ/TMA