Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

650
FXUS61 KBUF 060718
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
218 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Upgraded Extreme Cold Watch to an Extreme Cold Warning or Cold
Weather Advisory for the weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread snow expected today and tonight as a weak low and an
Arctic cold front cross the region, some of the snow may be heavy
later this evening with potential squalls and along the cold front.

2)Wrap around moisture and lake effect snow will develop behind the
Arctic cold front Saturday through Saturday night, with blowing and
drifting of the fresh snowpack.

3) Dangerously cold wind chills between 15 and 35 below zero are
expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Widespread snow expected today and tonight as a
weak low and an Arctic cold front cross the region, some of the snow
may be heavy later this evening with potential squalls and along the
cold front.

A strong vertically stacked low over James Bay will send its strong
Arctic cold front southeast across the Central & Eastern Great Lakes
through the day today. As the cold front tracks southeast out of the
the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes, a strong shortwave trough
and vorticity maximum will track along the western fringe of the
larger parent trough. As this shortwave trough and vort max catchup
to the cold front, a weak sfc low will develop over the Central
Great Lakes along the front and continue southeast, tracking
along/near the north shore of Lake Ontario this afternoon and into
Northern NY by later this evening. The core of the Arctic airmass is
associated with this stronger shortwave trough and vort max and
drops temperatures aloft behind the cold front further once they
phase.

Widespread light snow will move into the far western NY area by
around daybreak, and continue east through the afternoon. This first
batch of snow will be associated with a weak mid-level warm front.
Snow this morning with this weak warm front/warm air advection will
remain on the lighter side as it pushes east. Higher resolution
guidance suggest a lull of a few hours in the steadier snow with a
more scattered nature. Generally late morning into the mid afternoon
from west to east. Snow will then increase some for a few hours
after this lull as a shortwave trough/weak front crosses the area
during the later portion of the afternoon for western areas and
early evening for eastern portions of the area. Snow will then
increase additionally, becoming at least moderate at times for a few
hours as the strong Arctic cold front crosses the region, generally
from around 9pm to 2am from Western NY to the North Country. Snow
along the cold front and within potential squalls will have the
potential to become heavy for an hour or two with drastically
reduced visibilities and a quick inch or so. After the cold front
crosses, snow will become lighter, but will persist through most of
the first half of the night. Lake enhancement off of Lake Ontario
and upsloping east of Lake Erie will increase the potential for snow
to linger into the early portion of the day on Saturday. Snowfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across much of the area from
today through tonight, with some higher amounts closer to 6 inches
for the higher terrain near Lake Erie and for areas along the south
shore of Lake Ontario.

Winds will also increase later in the afternoon and through the
night as the pressure gradient over the region tightens with the
incoming cold front. Winds along the cold front will gust to around
35 mph, causing blowing and drifting snow, further reducing
visibilities within any areas of snowfall, and especially with the
heavier snow expected with the cold front. With strong cold air
advection behind the passing cold front, gusty winds to at least 30
mph will continue through the rest of the night, prolonging blowing
snow conditions and reductions to visibility.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A mid-level trough axis will move across the region Saturday. Deep
moisture and large scale ascent will exit to the east with
widespread snow coming to an end Saturday. A very cold, northwest
flow across the eastern Great Lakes and modest low-level moisture
will support lake effect snow showers downwind of of Lake Ontario
through the weekend. Forecast soundings show sub-par conditions,
with equilibrium levels between 3-5km and moisture continuing to
retreat to the east through Sunday. Due to the very cold airmass, a
fluffy couple of inches is possible in the most persistent snow
Saturday through Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Dangerously cold wind chills between 15 and 35 below
zero are expected this weekend.

Arctic air will arrive on the backside of a strong cold front late
tonight through Saturday and cold weather will persist across the
region through Sunday. A 50-knot low-level jet with 850mb
temperatures around -28C will spread across the forecast area late
tonight through Saturday. The core of the coldest air will slowly
lift eastward across the North Country into northern New England
Saturday night through Sunday. Temperatures will plummet behind the
cold front from west to east late tonight through Saturday. Low
temperatures will fall to near zero to the single digits below zero
by sunrise Saturday. Little improvement is expected during the day
with highs near zero to the single digits.

Strong winds behind the front will exacerbate this cold airmass and
create wind chills well below zero. The combination of frigid
temperatures and strong winds will create dangerous wind chills
across the region. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero are expected
to be felt across the higher terrain south of Buffalo, and across
the Finger Lakes region late tonight through Saturday, then east of
Lake Ontario Saturday through Sunday morning. While still very cold,
wind chills will be slightly higher (15 to 24 below zero) across the
Niagara Frontier and southern shore of Lake Ontario. Winds will
diminish across the region later Saturday through Sunday which will
allow wind chills to improve during the day, before dropping back
down Saturday night. Cold weather headlines are in effect for the
entire region for the weekend.

An upper level ridge will build into the Plains the start of the
work week and "warmer" weather is expected to start the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
After mainly VFR conditions early this morning, persistent periods
of MVFR/IFR conditions are expected today with light to at times
moderate snowfall causing lower VSBYs and CIGs. This will occur
as a weak sfc low and cold front approach the region today. Periods
of LIFR conditions can`t be ruled out during the day today, but
should be brief, the best chance for this will be as winds
increase later in the day, causing some blowing and drifting of
snow.

Tonight, a weak sfc low and strong Arctic cold front will cross
the region tonight. Widespread snow is expected to continue
through most of the first half of the night, with periods of
moderate to heavy snow at times, especially within snow squalls
and with the passing Arctic cold front. Reductions in VSBY and
CIGs to IFR is expected to continue through most of the night.
Within these heavier snow showers, LIFR and brief VLIFR
conditions will be possible at times. Increasing winds late this
afternoon and through much of the night will cause blowing and
drifting snow, further reducing VSBYs outside of the moderate to
heavy snowfall.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday... Areas of IFR in lake effect snow showers
south of Lake Ontario.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong arctic cold front will pass across the region tonight
through Saturday resulting in a period Gales across the far western
and central portions of Lake Ontario, and Small Craft Advisories on
Lake Erie. This being said, a Gale Warning is in effect for tonight
into Saturday morning for the western and central portions of Lake
Ontario. Due to the frigid nature of the airmass overhead, along
with the strong winds, freezing spray will also be likely on Lake
Ontario. Winds and waves will subside later Sunday as surface high
pressure builds into the lower Great Lakes.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are
now ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ001>005-010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for NYZ003>006-013-014.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     NYZ006>008.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
         Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM
         EST Sunday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday
         for LOZ042-043-062-063.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...EAJ/SW