Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

694
FXUS61 KBUF 171855
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
255 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The overall severe weather potential for Saturday has increased
a little further east with a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
stretching east into the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region, and
across the far western Southern Tier, with a Slight Risk (level
2/5) for Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Southern Erie, and far
western Wyoming county.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One more round of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms
expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, some of which could
be strong to severe across Western NY.

2) Below average temperatures return late in the weekend, however
more seasonal temperatures will arrive by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...One more round of widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, some
of which could be strong to severe across Western NY.

Other than low clouds slow to break up through the afternoon across
areas south of Lake Ontario, a welcomed period of dry weather is
expected across western and northcentral NY through Saturday
morning. Shower and thunderstorm potential will then quickly ramp up
Saturday afternoon from west to east as a strong cold front enters
western NY. The cold front will begin to slow eastward progression
as it moves into central NY, owed to a surface wave riding northward
along the boundary. Although the heavier showers and storms will
press off to the east, this wave will act to keep lighter showers
going through Saturday night as the wave moves north over the area
while the boundary slowly trudges east through eastern NY. The more
persistent light showers will taper off across western NY second
half of Saturday night, however as they do, much colder air will be
rushing behind the front with some wet snowflakes mixing across the
higher terrain areas.

Basin averaged rainfall amounts of 0.5-1" are still expected across
much of the area, with less than a 0.5" across the Niagara Frontier
where the secondary frontal wave will have less of an influence.

Severe weather potential Saturday afternoon...

Diurnal timing of the boundary and PWATs rising to around 1.25" in
advance of the cold front still look to yield a conditionally
unstable environment across WNY Saturday afternoon. Combined with 40-
50 knots of effective shear and strong 0-1km speed shear, this would
pose the threat of damaging wind gusts, with a lesser threat for
large hail and a low but non-zero threat for a tornado or two. All
this said, there continues to be several potential limiting factors
in this environment to consider; ongoing convection upstream headed
into the day, the amount of surface-based instability and CIN
remains in question as there will likely be a plethora of blowoff
cirrus and mid-level clouds, along with the possibility for even a
few scattered showers ahead of the main line of convection.
Potentially poor mid-level lapse rates may help to inhibit stronger
convection as well. In addition, while the low to the north will be
in the process of deepening Saturday/Saturday night, the system will
be pulling more north-northeast further away from our area, which
may pull stronger low and mid-level winds away from the region as or
shortly before the onset of showers/storms. This timing will play a
big role in higher severe potential and will need to be monitored.
While shear values will still be enough to pose some severe threat
in any case, the window for optimal wind profiles may be short-lived
and not perfectly timed with peak instability or a lack thereof.
Severe weather continues to look most favorable across southwestern
NYS.

As of this update, local assessment continues to be in-line with
SPC`s latest Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for Saturday across most of
WNY, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for southwestern NYS.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures return late in the
weekend, however more seasonal temperatures will arrive by Tuesday.

Deep mid-level troughing will slide east across the Great Lakes
Sunday, before pulling east across New England Monday and Monday
night. In its trek, a few shortwave troughs will round the base. Due
to the deep nature of the troughing pattern overhead, cold air (to
the degree of -10C at 850mb) will spill across the region in the
wake of a passing cold front Saturday night. Temperatures Sunday and
Monday will plummet into the upper 30s to low 40s for daytime highs
and 20s for overnight lows. Additionally, with the passage of each
shortwave, some minor lake enhanced/upslope effects may support some
snow showers or flurries at time for the start of the week. However
due to the higher sun angle for April, and the trend for a drier
airmass overhead, snow accumulations will be greatly inhibited.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low clouds have finally dissipated across the western Southern Tier
(KJHW) and the North Country (KART). Sites south of Lake Ontario
have improved to mainly MVFR and are expected to become VFR by mid
to late afternoon.

High pressure overhead the area this evening, will slide east into
New England tonight while maintaining widespread VFR flight
conditions and light winds.

VFR flight conditions will persist through the end of the TAF period
with mid-level decks thickening and lowering late in the TAF period.
Southerly winds will increase through early Saturday afternoon ahead
of a cold front, with widespread wind gusts of 20-30 knots, some
areas up to 35 knots by late in the TAF period.

Expect deteriorating conditions Saturday afternoon as a strong cold
front brings showers and embedded thunderstorms into the area.

Outlook...

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with rain showers mixing with wet snow
showers.

Sunday/Sunday night...A mix of MVFR/IFR with upslope/lake effect
rain showers mixing with and changing to snow showers.

Monday...Improvement to VFR with leftover scattered lake
effect/upslope snow showers ending.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of dense fog will continue on Lake Erie through at least mid
to late afternoon, thus the Dense Fog Advisory over the lake has
been extended through 4 PM this afternoon. Confidence remains low as
to when the fog will start to dissipate, so there is the possibility
the marine fog layer over the lake could linger into tonight, before
south/southeast flow starts to ramp up later tonight well ahead of a
cold front approaching from the west.

Relatively light winds and minimal wave action will continue through
most of tonight as high pressure moves from the lower Great Lakes
into New England. Southerly flow will increase Saturday through
Saturday night in association with the approach/passage of a strong
cold front. This may result in the next round of SCA conditions for
portions of the lakes with the frontal passage also accompanied by
another round of showers and storms, some of which could produce
locally stronger winds and higher waves. A period of post-frontal
stronger westerlies will then develop on Lake Ontario Sunday and
persist through Sunday night with small craft conditions possible.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ/JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM