Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

959
FXUS61 KBUF 010650
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
150 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Locally heavy lake effect snows will focus southeast of the
lakes through Friday with varying intensity and placement. The
lake snows will finally weaken over the weekend. Moderating
temperatures are expected next week with more general snow or
mixed precipitation at times.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Flow has shifted northwest behind the passage of a cold front. This
has resulted in the lake bands settling southeast of the lakes.
Multiple streamers of lake snow will continue to impact areas
southeast of the lakes through the day today. These bands should be
of less intensity than the past few days, as some drier air at mid
and upper levels works into the region. Localized amounts near 2 or
3" possible off Lake Erie with amounts of 3-5" from Wayne to Oswego
county southeast of Lake Ontario. Winds will also slacken with less
of a blowing and drifting concern, except for areas right along
the immediate lakeshores.

A quick hitting upper short wave will approach tonight. This will
return moisture back to the region and reinvigorate the lake
snows, as the low level flow backs more westerly. This will focus
a band of heavy lake snow from southern Erie county into the
western Southern Tier. Amounts here on the order of 3-6", but
localized heavier amounts are certainly possible. Very favorable
set up off Lake Ontario, with some hi-res guidance suggesting
convergent band forming for within the longer lake axis and
focusing heavy snow from northeast Wayne, northern Cayuga into
Oswego county, with the northern edge perhaps as far north as
southern Jefferson county. Peak snowfall rates could exceed 3"
per hour with overnight totals of 12-18".

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Focus will continue to be on lake effect snow through the end of the
week. A longwave trough will remain established over the eastern
half of Canada, allowing for a constant supply of sufficiently cold
air to be delivered to the Great Lakes. Synoptic scale support and
moisture will be less abundant than earlier in the event, but a very
favorable setup over Lake Ontario will continue to support locally
heavy snowfall.

Off Lake Ontario...

Lake induced equilibrium levels will remain close to 10K feet
through Friday evening, with deep saturation with respect to ice and
a deep dendritic growth zone beneath the inversion. Latest Canadian
RGEM and other high-res guidance shows a slight anticyclonic
curvature to the Lake Ontario band, indicative of strong land breeze
convergence. These types of band structures often produce high
snowfall rates and fluffy snow at the southeast corner of the lake,
and some recent high-res CAMS guidance certainly suggests this
possibility. In fact, the 00Z HREF mean and 00Z HRRR both have a
bullseye of 40+ inches across southern or central Oswego County
today through Friday. While this is a possibility, there remains
some uncertainty with band placement. The 00Z GFS wind profiles
suggesting a little farther north band location.

Given the close agreement in mesoscale guidance and the overall
pattern, the local Oswego County bullseye of 3+ feet is a plausible
outcome, and we have increased snowfall across southern Oswego
County into this range. If the intense band of snow comes together
as advertised, hourly snowfall rates may max out with 3-5" per hour
possible. Monitor future forecast updates as the exact placement of
the axis of heaviest snow may change slightly in future forecasts.

If the higher end snowfall amounts and rates materialize in Oswego
County, travel impacts will be severe, with the worst conditions
coming later tonight through Friday.

It will be a close call if the band reaches back into portions of
Jefferson and Lewis counties later tonight through Friday. If it
does, it would only be the far southern end of Jefferson and far
southwest corner of Lewis. With some uncertainty in band placement,
the warnings will stay for these two counties for now, but its
possible the band will not make it that far north and east. The band
of heavy snow is more likely to impact far northern Cayuga and far
northeast Wayne counties at times with locally another 1-2 feet. The
warning has been extended for these two counties.

Friday night through Saturday, the inversion heights will steadily
lower, and overall conditions will become less favorable for heavy
snow. The band will still center on Oswego County much of the time
with additional accumulations likely. Diminishing boundary layer
flow will allow land breeze forcing to become more dominant, which
may allow the band to hug the south shore and produce local
accumulations along the Route 104 corridor as far west as near
Irondequoit Bay.

Off Lake Erie...

Lake effect snow will be far less impressive off Lake Erie, with
lower inversion heights and less moisture available. Following a
brief resurgence tonight through early Friday morning, expect a
general weakening trend Friday through Friday night. Additional
accumulations will be on the order of a few inches across the higher
terrain of the western Southern Tier and Boston Hills, with most of
that falling during the first half of Friday. What remains of the
lake effect snow will gradually diminish and end Friday night
through Saturday as inversion heights continue to lower.

Saturday night, a shortwave and weak clipper low will move southeast
across the Great Lakes. Increasing moisture and forcing for ascent
with this feature may produce a general light snowfall for much of
the region with minor accumulations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The pattern will gradually become less active and less wintry
through the long term period.

Sunday, a few light snow showers will continue east and southeast of
the lakes. Surface high pressure will rapidly build into the eastern
Great Lakes later Sunday, largely shutting down the lake response. A
mid level shortwave and warm front will then cross the eastern great
Lakes Monday, with another round of light snow possible.

Tuesday through Wednesday, the pattern will quickly become more
zonal across North America, allowing mild Pacific origin air to
flood eastward across the country. This will bring a notable warming
trend through the middle of the week, with highs well above the
freezing mark by Wednesday. An approaching weak system will bring a
chance of a few rain/snow showers Tuesday, transitioning to all rain
by Wednesday as temperatures surface and aloft continue to warm.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Winds shifting out of the northwest behind the passage of a cold
front. This will shift the focus of the lake snows to the southeast
of the lakes today. This will bring occasional IFR or lower
conditions to KJHW and briefly this morning to KROC. Otherwise,
mainly VFR ceilings outside of the lake effect. Northwest winds
gusting to 20 to 30 knots through about 12z, but slackening to less
than 20 knots for the remainder of the day.

Outlook...

Tonight...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR in lake
effect snow east/southeast of the lakes.

Friday...Local IFR/LIFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes,
VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers elsewhere.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR in lake
effect snow east of the lakes.

Sunday and Monday...VFR/MVFR conditions with scattered snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue
through the end of the week on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario before
winds diminish over the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ004>008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST Friday for NYZ012-019-020-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...AR/Brothers/TMA
MARINE...AR/Hitchcock