Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

209
FXUS61 KBUF 141849
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
249 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the
week.

2) Marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy
rainfall through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through much of the week.

Broad ridging will remain in place across the eastern CONUS through
the end of the week...with a parade of shortwave impulses (some
convectively-enhanced) rippling northeastward along the periphery
this ridge and across our region. In the process...these features
and their associated weak to modest surface lows will track
northeastward along a persistent frontal zone draped across the
Great Lakes and Northeast...causing this boundary to waver north and
south while also generating frequent rounds of showers and scattered
thunderstorms.

Digging more into the forecast details...the first in the series of
these waves is now in the process of Southern Ontario...with the
last of its initial round of convection now in the process of
crossing the North Country. As we push through the afternoon and the
attendant surface low pushes east into the Saint Lawrence Valley...
it will swing its trailing cold front southeastward across our area.
Coupled with convergence along a lake breeze boundary setting up to
the lee of Lake Erie and diurnal heating...this will likely lead to
another round of convection from the Southern Tier northeastward
across the Finger Lakes and into central New York...while further
north the stabilizing flow off the cooler waters of Lakes Erie and
Ontario should lead to a much lower chance of storms across the lake
plains. This next round of convection should then die out fairly
quickly early this evening with the loss of heating/departure of the
cold front and collapse of the lake breeze boundary...with a
relative lull then following for the balance of the evening.

Overnight and Wednesday we`ll get to do things all over again as yet
another convectively enhanced shortwave and surface low/attendant
warm frontal segment makes its way across the central Great Lakes
and southern Ontario. This will bring another round of fairly
widespread warm-frontal showers and scattered thunderstorms that
will cross our region from west to east between later tonight and
the first part of Wednesday morning. Following the passage of these
we can expect another relative lull between the mid morning and
early afternoon hours...before the trailing cold front/developing
lake breeze boundaries/diurnal destabilization lead to another round
of showers/scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon...with the
greatest convective potential again likely to lie across areas
inland from lake breeze boundaries.

Wednesday night through Thursday night it`ll be more of the same as
a stronger mid-level shortwave trough and surface low will track
from the Upper Midwest to southern Ontario, then into New England...
resulting in yet another warm frontal/cold frontal passage with each
of these features accompanied by additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. By Friday...the guidance diverges some with how
quickly this system departs...with it possible that at least some
showers/a few storms could linger into at least part of Friday...
especially across eastern portions of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms and
locally heavy rainfall through Wednesday.

Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms will cross our region
through Wednesday, with a few of these rounds potentially bringing a
risk of isolated strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

The next of these should affect areas primarily from the southern
Tier northeastward across the Finger Lakes into central New York...
along and ahead of an advancing weak cold front and to the lee of
more stable lake shadows off both lakes. Within this area...
developing weak to moderate surface-based instability and strong/
largely unidriectional flow aloft may support a low risk for some
isolated strong wind gusts. This round of convection and any severe
risk will end by early this evening with the departure of the cold
front/collapse of any lake breeze boundaries and diminishing
instability.

Later tonight and Wednesday morning...the next convectively-enhanced
shortwave/surface low and warm frontal segment will approach and
cross our area from west to east along with another round of
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. While not at a
favorable time of day...a few of the above storms could still pose a
risk of locally strong wind gusts if any bowing segments from
upstream manage to persist as these cross our region. In the wake of
this round of convection...diurnal heating should again allow weak
to moderate instability to develop inland from developing lake
shadows...with the associated lake breeze boundaries and the
approach of yet another weak cold front combining with this to yield
yet another round of showers/storms during the afternoon. The
greatest coverage of these will again likely lie from the Southern
Tier across the Finger Lakes...with a strong and mostly
unidirectional flow aloft again supporting a risk for mainly
isolated strong/damaging wind gusts. This said...low level shear
will be a bit greater than today and may support a low...but also
nonzero risk of an isolated tornado across the Southern Tier...where
available instability looks to be the greatest.

Finally...PWATs will be in the 1.25-1.50 inch range at points. While
a continued fast flow aloft should help to keep any storms moving
along and any flooding risk on the lower side...any training of
storms could result in a localized flash flood risk should the
latter develop.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
today, with brief heavy downpours at times as well. CIGs/VSBY to IFR
and possibly LIFR at times within heavier showers/storms.
Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce gusty winds and
hail at times through the evening. Outside of showers/storms mainly
VFR or higher end MVFR for the afternoon hours.

Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorm potential will continue
through the evening. A batch of showers and thunderstorms will move
through the area during the second half of the night. Moderate to at
times heavy downpours will be possible with any showers/storm.
Flight conditions through the evening and early overnight mainly in
the higher end MVFR to VFR is expected. Flight categories will lower
to IFR and at times LIFR will be possible with the steadier
showers/storms during the second half of the night. Again, any
storms could produce some gusty winds and locally heavier downpours
at times.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at
times. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible.

Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers later in the
afternoon.

Sunday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with rain showers mixing with and
changing to snow through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA-level conditions across eastern Lake Erie...the Niagara
River...and western Lake Ontario will diminish quickly late this
afternoon and early evening as the pressure gradient across our
region weakens.

Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms will cross the
lower Great Lakes today through Thursday. A few storms may
produce locally higher winds and waves along with lightning
strikes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020-
         040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ030-042.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...JJR