Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

619
FXUS61 KBUF 130555
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1255 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to PoPs for Saturday to reflect some potential for
light snow showers to linger across the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Residual lake effect snow showers will end across the region
this morning.

2) A light snowfall will arrive this evening and linger into
tonight, focused mainly east of the Genesee Valley into the Finger
Lakes region.

3) Warming temperatures and increasing chances for rain will likely
cause movement of ice on area creeks and streams next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Residual lake effect snow showers will end
across the region this morning.

Depleting moisture and a lowering subsidence inversion will put an
end to any remaining lake effect as we move into and through the
morning hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A light snowfall will arrive this evening and linger
into tonight, focused mainly east of the Genesee Valley into the
Finger Lakes region.

A robust shortwave will dive southeast towards the Lower Lakes
through the broader trough today into tonight. Increasing moisture
and lift focused along a tightening 850 hPa thermal gradient setting
up across the area will bring a period of light snow. The best shot
at seeing accumulating snows will likely be found east of the
Genesee Valley into the Finger Lakes and then northeast towards the
Tug Hill region. Overall...a general 1 to 3 inches will be possible
in the locations mentioned above, with up to 4" in some isolated
spots.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warming temperatures and increasing chances for rain
will likely cause movement of ice on area creeks and streams next
week.

Offshore ridging in the western Atlantic is expected to strengthen
next week as pacific shortwave energy races east of the Rockies,
forming a broad area of low pressure between the north-central
Plains and the Midwest by Wednesday. Across the lower Great Lakes,
this shift in the synoptic-scale pattern will cause a generally NW-
SE oriented thermal gradient to become established, with most of the
forecast area under a prevailing south to southwesterly low level
flow. This will result in a modest advection of warmer air through
midweek, while several waves of low pressure riding along the
boundary cause increased chances for precipitation. A couple of
weaker clipper-type lows could bring some wintry mix east of Lake
Ontario Sunday night and again Monday night, though significantly
higher chances for precip will arrive Wednesday.

The evolution of this pattern, particularly in regards to the waves
of low pressure moving across the thermal boundary, remains quite
uncertain at this time with a high amount of volatility noted among
the long range ensembles. There is enough of a consistent signal
such that confidence remains high in daytime high temperatures
through this weekend and into next week trending upwards each day,
with afternoon temps in the low 40s becoming commonplace south of
Lake Ontario by Sunday and/or Monday. Lows will be more weakly
correlated, though overnight temps well above normal will similarly
be common.

These temperature profiles will allow plain rain to be the dominant
ptype across WNY, with more uncertainty east of Lake Ontario. While
the potential for a wintry mix will need to be monitored, the
primary concern will be how the above freezing temps and rain cause
the copious amounts of ice on area creeks and streams to begin
breaking up and moving throughout the week. NBM temperature trends
advertise 300 to 400 thawing degree hours across WNY which will
elevate the threat for ice jams on area waterways. While still too
soon to pinpoint specifics, the typical problem creeks and streams
around Buffalo and in the Southern Tier will likely need to be
watched. Given how deep and cold this recent stretch has been across
the entire region however, it is not out of the question that hydro
issues arise even outside of the normal areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect clouds and snow showers will produce MVFR cigs across
far western terminals (KBUF, KIAG, and KJHW) through this morning,
but will give way to VFR by the afternoon. A clipper system will
approach this evening and then cross the eastern Great Lakes
tonight. This will bring a period of IFR conditions in light snow
along with MVFR/IFR CIGS.

Outlook...

Saturday...Local MVFR/IFR in snow showers east and southeast of Lake
Ontario through mid-morning, then improving to VFR.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...VFR to MVFR/IFR. A brief wintry mix possible east of
Lake Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds strengthen ahead of the next clipper system diving southeast
towards the Lower Lakes today. Winds will approach Small Craft
conditions this afternoon and then slowly beggining lessening
tonight.

Surface high pressure builds into the lower great Lakes Saturday
bringing lighter winds through Saturday night. Another fast moving
clipper dives towards the region Sunday which may bring a brief
period of near Small Craft conditions.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are
ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/PP
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR