Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

223
FXUS61 KBUF 271848
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
148 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold Weather Advisory has been extended across the western Southern
Tier through 10 AM Wednesday.

Minor adjustments to snowfall amounts and placement of the band off
Lake Ontario.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heavy lake effect snow persist of Lake Ontario through much of
the week, with bands varying in location and intensity. Limited lake
effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie.

2) A frigid airmass will remain locked in place through at least
this weekend, with bitterly cold wind chills and persistent chances
for lake effect snow downwind of Lake Ontario.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy lake effect snow persist of Lake Ontario
through much of the week, with bands varying in location and
intensity. Limited lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie.

A clipper system will pass by to our north through this evening then
off towards New England tonight. Lake effect snows, mainly off Lake
Ontario will strengthen late this afternoon and evening.
Extensive ice cover on Lake Erie, although thin will limit lake
effect potential but not eliminate it.

Otherwise...the fresh snowfall combined with gusty southwest
winds up to 40 mph will produce extensive blowing and drifting
snow through this evening. This will make for difficult travel
in spots, especially in open areas.

Off Lake Ontario...

Weak and disorganized lake snows will begin to re-intensify over
Jefferson County this afternoon. As the trough associated with the
clipper crosses the area flow will veer to the west then west-
northwest by this evening. As the flow changes, it will send
the band south across the Tug Hill region and then into Oswego
County this evening. Guidance suggest that the band will even
push into Wayne and northern Cayuga, possibly touching parts of
eastern Monroe county for a time tonight.

Once the band intensify this afternoon...snowfall rates of 2-3" per
hour will be possible within the most intense portion of the band.
That said...frequent change in location (oscillations) of the band
will potentially limit accumulation. Even so...where we do see the
band reside the longest expect locally heavy accumulations.

Flow will once again back to the west and then west-southwest
Wednesday morning ahead of the next shortwave. This will send
the band back north across Oswego County to the Tug Hill region
and again into Jefferson County. The band may weaken brief as
the trek north occurs due to shear.

Wash, rinse, and repeat...the next shortwave trough pushes across
the region Wednesday evening-night. Flow will again veers from
southwest to west then west-northwest. Expect the band to sink
south across Jefferson county Wednesday evening then the Tug
Hill region and finally into Oswego county. As this occurs...we
may see the lake effect snow band rapidly intensify as the full-
fetch of the lake becomes realized, with perhaps 3"/hr or more
rates along the southeastern Lake Ontario shoreline. All said
and done...we could see some spots pickup a foot or more of
fluffy snowfall as we had into Thursday morning, especially near
the immediate Oswego County shoreline.


Off Lake Erie...

Extensive ice cover on the lake will certainly play a role but not
eliminate it. There is just enough open or breaks/slush to allow
for a response this afternoon. A southwest flow will continue
ahead of the clipper will support a lake enhanced snow northeast
of Lake Erie across the Niagara Frontier. Overall...light
accumulations anticipated with 1- 2" through this evening,
possibly some localized areas seeing up to 3" when all is said
and done. With the passage of the clipper tonight, snow showers
will move south to the higher terrain well south of Buffalo and
then gradually weaken to flurries overnight. The bigger issue
through this evening will be the gusty winds picking up the
freshly fallen snow creating areas of drifting snow across
roadways in spots, especially in open areas.

Boundary layer flow will back to the southwest again Wednesday ahead
of the next clipper. There will be less synoptic scale ascent and
moisture, and more shear, so just expect scattered light snow
showers east and northeast of the lake with spotty minor
accumulations. As flow veers to the west then west-northwest
Wednesday evening-night, lake snows will further weaken and shove
south of the Buffalo metro area. Any additional accumulations will
be minor at this point and under an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A frigid airmass will remain locked in place through
at least this weekend, with bitterly cold wind chills and persistent
chances for lake effect snow downwind of Lake Ontario.

Water vapor satellite imagery depicts a slow moving closed low in
the vicinity of James Bay this afternoon, with a robust shortwave
moving east of the Great Lakes. Through the course of the week,
several additional shortwaves will round the base of this closed
low, causing the deep -2SD longwave trough to remain effectively
locked in place across the Northeast. Near the end of the week the
abnormally W-E oriented trough axis will slowly drag the core of the
cold airmass southward across the Great Lakes. The system will then
eventually interact with another wave near the Gulf Coast to cause a
coastal low to rapidly develop near the Carolinas. For our region,
the focus continues to be on how this pattern will prolong the
stretch of bitterly cold temperatures and generate lake effect snow
off Lake Ontario.

Lake Effect Snow Potential Thursday Onwards...

The initially heavy lake effect snow band ESE of Lake Ontario early
Thursday should trend weaker through Thursday night in response to
depleting synoptic moisture and EQL heights falling below 6.5kft. A
subtle veering of the low to mid-level flow ahead of the trough axis
should direct the waning lake snows from southern/central Oswego
towards Wayne and Northern Cayuga, where they will linger through
much of Friday. Peak snowfall rates up to 3" per hour early Thursday
morning should quickly fall to 1-2" per hour, then remain at or
below 0.5" per hour in the afternoon through Friday. While the main
band should remain in this general vicinity through Friday night,
even lesser intensity snows will likely clip most of the southern
shoreline through this timeframe. Behind the trough axis Saturday
and Sunday, the main lake effect area should drift west of Oswego
and N. Cayuga and remain light in intensity. Airmass modification
should then actually allow for even less of a lake response early
next week.

As for Lake Erie...As demonstrated this afternoon, there remains
enough thin slush ice and small breaks in the ice cover to allow for
a weak lake response. The flow of Arctic air should continue to
dampen this response as the ice thickens through the rest of the
week, though it is difficult to determine the magnitude of weakening
far in advance. As such, low-end but persistent chances for snow
remain in the forecast due east of the lake.

Cold Temperatures...

As alluded to previously, the core of the coldest airmass will move
overhead by Friday morning as the trough axis slides into the
region. Mid-range guidance suggests 850mb temps bottoming out around
-23C at this time before the airmass modification kicks in and leads
to warming aloft through early next week. In terms of impact on sfc
temps, highs in the teens and through this weekend, with widespread
lows in the single digits on either side of zero. Headline-worthy
wind chills are thus expected during a few periods this week. First
will be through tonight for the Southern Tier where the current Cold
Weather Advisory has been extended. The second will be Thursday
night into Friday when wind chills could plummet well into the
negative teens, potentially nearing -30F again across the North
Country. Additional Cold Weather headlines could be needed outside
of these two timeframes though wind chills appear marginal.

The `good` news here is that long range ensembles are fairly
consistent in the warming temperatures early next week, though this
is only looking like an improvement to highs in the 20s as opposed
to teens.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Winds gusting up to 35 knots will create areas of BLSN at area
terminals, especially northeast of the lakes this afternoon.
The combination of BLSN and localized lake effect snow will
produce IFR-LIFR for terminals northeast of the lakes to include
KBUF, KIAG, KART, and KGTB through this evening. Terminals
outside of the main lake effect areas will see a mix of MVFR-IFR
conditions to low end VFR.

A passing clipper system to our north this evening-tonight will send
lake snows south as flow veers from southwest to west then west-
northwest.

Off Lake Ontario, lake effect snow will re-intensify near KART, then
move back south this evening across the Tug Hill region to Oswego
County, remaining near KFZY overnight. This band of snow will
produce local LIFR/VLIFR conditions in heavy snow.

Off Lake Erie, lake enhanced snows northeast of the lake will move
south towards KJHW mid-late afternoon and evening, then weaken to
flurries overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Localized lake effect snow with LIFR
east and southeast of Lake Ontario. Much weaker lake effect snow
will produce localized IFR east of Lake Erie. VFR/MVFR outside of
lake effect areas.

Friday...Lake effect snow along the south shore of Lake Ontario with
local IFR. VFR/MVFR elsewhere.

Saturday...Snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario with MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...Snow showers southeast of the lakes with MVFR/VFR

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated westerly winds will continue through Thursday on the
eastern Great Lakes, producing Small Craft Advisory conditions most
of the time. Winds will become northwest Thursday night through
Friday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely continuing along
the south shore of Lake Ontario.

Of note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are now
ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ001-002-010>012-085.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ004.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for
     NYZ005>008.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ019>021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LOZ043-
         044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/PP
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/Hitchcock