Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

404
FXUS61 KBUF 111013
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
613 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool with a few spotty showers today.

2) Widespread frost tonight through early Tuesday morning, with
freeze conditions across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

3) Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week with periods
of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool with a few spotty showers today.

850MB temperatures around -2C will persist today. Areas of frost
will be found across the cooler locations of the Southern Tier and
east of Lake Ontario through the early morning hours. Temperatures
will struggle to recover today, with highs in the lower 50s in most
areas and upper 40s higher terrain.

A weak mid level shortwave will cross the eastern Great Lakes this
morning, with an increase in clouds and possibly a few sprinkles or
spotty light showers along and north of the NYS Thruway.

A stronger shortwave will sharpen and dig across the eastern Great
Lakes this afternoon. There is minimal deep moisture to work with,
but the combination of DPVA ahead of the shortwave and steep lapse
rates may allow a few spotty showers to develop this afternoon. The
best chance of a few passing showers will be found across the Saint
Lawrence Valley where synoptic scale forcing maximizes, and also
along the lake breeze convergence zone from the Niagara River
extending ESE into the Finger Lakes. Stable lake shadows will
develop east/southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this afternoon,
preventing showers and allowing for more sunshine.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread frost tonight through early Tuesday
morning, with freeze conditions across the Southern Tier and east of
Lake Ontario.

Surface high pressure will build east across the Great Lakes
tonight, reaching Western NY/PA by daybreak Tuesday. Clearing skies
and diminishing winds in this cool airmass will allow for strong
radiational cooling overnight. Lows will drop back into the low to
mid 30s areawide, with upper 20s likely in the typically colder
Southern Tier Valleys and Tug Hill region. Widespread frost is
expected, with freeze conditions in colder inland areas.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week
with periods of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.

Another strong Pacific shortwave will dig into the mean eastern
CONUS trough through the middle of the week, evolving into a closed
low as it crosses the Great Lakes Wednesday and then the Northeast
by Thursday. This system will bring another extended period of
unsettled weather from Tuesday night through at least Thursday
night.

An area of strong warm advection and moisture transport will arrive
Tuesday night, supporting the development of widespread rain from
west to east across the region. The widespread rain will last into
Wednesday morning before a mid level dry slot arrives over the
eastern Great Lakes by afternoon, allowing the widespread rain to
become more showery in nature. Showers will continue Wednesday night
through Thursday night with additional forcing for ascent and deep
moisture from the passing mid level trough and weak, vertically
stacked surface low slowly crossing the eastern Great Lakes.

Model guidance begins to diverge on the timing of this system by
Friday, with the GFS suggesting a faster exit off the New England
coast, while the GEM and especially ECMWF show a slower progression
and lingering showers. The current forecast is mainly dry for our
area Friday, but this may change pending future model trends.

There is still some spread in model and ensemble guidance in total
rainfall amounts for the Tuesday night through Thursday night
period, but even the higher end of the guidance envelope does not
generate enough QPF for any flood concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak mid level shortwave will cross the eastern Great Lakes this
morning, bringing an increase in mid level clouds and possibly a few
spotty light showers, mainly along and north of the NYS Thruway.
Cloud bases will remain VFR.

Another stronger shortwave will cross the eastern Great Lakes this
afternoon. Moisture will be very limited, but strong forcing and
steep lapse rates may support a few spotty showers this afternoon.
The best chance of showers will be across the Saint Lawrence Valley
where synoptic scale forcing is strongest, and also along the lake
breeze convergence zone from near KIAG and KBUF extending ESE into
the Finger Lakes. Otherwise, expect plenty of cumulus and
stratocumulus today with cold air aloft. Stable lake shadows will
reduce cloud cover over and east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes tonight, with
clearing skies and light winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday... MVFR/IFR with periods of rain. A few widely scattered
thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR improving to MVFR/VFR with occasional showers.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW winds will increase on Lake Ontario this afternoon and evening,
with a light to moderate chop especially on the east half of the
lake. High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes tonight,
with diminishing winds. Light winds will continue Tuesday as high
pressure drifts to the east coast.

Low pressure will then cross the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night,
reaching the lower Great Lakes Wednesday. Southeast winds will ramp
up ahead of this system later Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning, likely bringing a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions
to the east end of Lake Ontario. Winds will become more
southwesterly with time later Wednesday, with a moderate chop on
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ006>008-012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock