Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

351
FXUS61 KBUF 292332
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
732 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area for
tomorrow. Additionally, an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for I-
90 corridor and Finger Lakes for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity is expected beginning tomorrow, and
lasting through at least Friday.

2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow as
a warm front lifts through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity is expected beginning
tomorrow, and lasting through at least Friday. A Heat Advisory has
been issued for the entire forecast area for tomorrow. Additionally,
an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for I-90 corridor and Finger
Lakes for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

Guidance remains in lockstep on upper level ridging building across
the eastern CONUS through Thursday...with the core of the ridge
strengthening to near 600 dm while drifting east from the Tennessee
Valley to the mid-Atlantic coastline. After that time...a series of
shortwave impulses digging southeastward across eastern Canada will
help to slowly buckle and flatten the ridge Friday through the
holiday weekend...with its core correspondingly settling
southwestward into the southern Plains/southeastern States. Under
this regime...850 mb temps will climb to around +20C by later
Tuesday afternoon...then will remain around or even a little above
+20C through at least Thursday and possibly even Friday...before
pulling back into the mid to upper teens next weekend.

After a warm front lifts through the area tomorrow morning heat and
humidity will then build in with highs reaching the upper 80s to low
90s. Increasing humidity will result in heat indices climbing to 95-
100 degrees for much of the area outside of the highest elevations
and immediate lakeshore. Some locations around the Finger Lakes
could top 100 degree heat index briefly tomorrow afternoon.

Low level heights continue to build mid week as the upper level
ridge strengthens. This will bring even hotter conditions to upstate
NY. Widespread highs in the 90s are expected Wednesday through
Friday, and readings will reach the mid to possibly upper 90s
Wednesday and Thursday across the I-90 corridor and the Finger
Lakes. It`s here that an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued, where
heat indices will likely top 105 degrees both afternoons. Heat
indices will be slightly lower Friday, but the cumulative effect of
3+ days of high heat and humidity will extend the dangerous
conditions through Friday afternoon.

**Several other factors may make this potential heat wave more
impactful such as the early summer season timing, very warm
overnight temperatures (mid/upper 70s), Holiday week with
many folks outside or vacationing, and the cumulative effect over
several days.**

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible tomorrow as a warm front lifts through the
region.

A warm frontal boundary will slide eastward early tomorrow morning
through Western NY. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
develop along this boundary. Most CAMs show potential for a MCS to
develop somewhere in eastern Ontario or southwest Quebec, and dive
southward into NY later tomorrow afternoon. Strong wind shear (40+
kts) and moderate instability (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) with support
supercell structures within any cluster of storms that form, or any
discrete cells that develop. SPC has upgraded portions of the North
Country to a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms, with all
hazards possible (damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated
tornadoes). The biggest question that remains is where this
convection will initiate, and where it will track into upstate NY,
or if it tracks farther east into Vermont.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR weather is expected through tonight. Mid to high level clouds
from a complex of thunderstorms upstream will increase in coverage
across the region through tonight.

A warm front will move across the region Tuesday morning. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible, however confidence is low
on the timing and location of the storms. A brief period of IFR or
below is expected in any heavy showers or storms.

Outlook...

Tuesday Afternoon...Mainly VFR with scattered showers/thunderstorms
and localized flight reductions possible...with the greatest
potential for these across the eastern Finger Lakes and North
Country.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will pass across the region on Tuesday, with modest to
moderate southwesterlies then following for the remainder of the
week.

The warm frontal passage may also bring the potential for at least a
few showers and thunderstorms later tonight and Tuesday...some of
which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dangerous heat and humidity are expected across western and
north central NY this week. Here are the record maximum and high
minimum temperatures for Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown.

                    6/30        7/1         7/2         7/3
Buffalo, NY
High Max          94(1963)    93(1963)    94(1966)    94(1949)
High Low          73(1941)    75(1901)    75(1931)    74(1911*)

Rochester, NY
High Max          96(1964)    96(1901)    99(1931)    100(1911)
High Low          72(2014)    76(1931)    76(1931*)   75(1911)

Watertown, NY
High Max          89(1977)    92(1967)    92(1966)    91(1966)
High Low          73(2014*)   74(2014)    73(2002)    74(1973)


Average Temperatures for June 30-July 3
Buffalo
Max           79
Min           62

Rochester
Max           82
Min           62

Watertown
Max           78
Min           57

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NYZ001>006-010-011-013-014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR/SGK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...HSK/JJR
CLIMATE...BUF