Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

040
FXUS61 KBUF 111023
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
623 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dense Fog Advisory for Erie County has been cancelled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms through this evening.
A brief period of freezing rain will is possible near the Saint
Lawrence River this morning.

2) Low chance of severe thunderstorms late afternoon and
evening.

3) Gusty winds today through early Thursday, especially close
to the lakes.

4) A frontal system will bring accumulating snow, rain and gusty
winds to western and northcentral New York Friday into Friday night.

5) Active pattern continues late this weekend into early next week
as another system may bring the chance of rain, snow, strong winds,
and a return winter-like temperatures to western New York.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms through
this evening. A brief period of freezing rain will is possible
near the Saint Lawrence River this morning.

Multiple rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms will cross the
eastern Great Lakes as convectively augmented shortwaves and deep
moisture move across the region. The first round will arrive into
western New York this morning, followed by a few more rounds through
the day. A few storms may produce brief heavy downpours. The last
round of rain and storms will cross the area from west to east this
evening along a strong cold front.

A localized area of freezing rain is likely across the Thousand
Islands region this morning as low level northeast flow brings
surface temperatures to near or just below freezing in the Saint
Lawrence Valley. Ice accumulations of a trace to less than a tenth
of inch are possible over far northern Jefferson County, where a
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.

Rainfall amounts of 1.0" to 1.5" are likely across much of the
region through tonight. The combination of rain and snowmelt will
continue to increase the flood risk east of Lake Ontario. See the
Hydrology section below for more details.

A few snow showers will develop late tonight through Thursday
morning in the strong cold advection regime behind the cold front,
along with some limited lake enhancement east of both lakes. The
airmass quickly dries out, so accumulations will be limited to a
dusting for lower elevations up to a few inches for higher terrain
east of the lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low chance of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening.

Strong dynamics from a sharp trough and powerful cold frontal
passage will bring at least a chance of isolated severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. There will be several
rounds of thunderstorms today, but the severe weather risk will
likely be limited to the last round of storms in the late afternoon
and early evening along the cold front.

Shear profiles are very favorable with a 55-65 knot low level jet in
the warm sector, but extensive cloud cover and multiple rounds of
showers will limit destabilization. The best chance of sufficient
surface based instability to support an isolated severe risk will be
across western New York, where SPC has a Marginal Risk. The primary
severe weather risk would be isolated damaging wind gusts, with the
risk conditional on sufficient destabilization.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Gusty winds today through early Thursday, especially
close to the lakes.

A strong 55-65 knot low level jet will cross the eastern Great Lakes
through this evening. The strongest winds aloft will be confined to
the warm sector of the system, with warm advection and poor lapse
rates limiting the mixing potential. Nonetheless, a few gusts may
reach or exceed 40 mph this afternoon and tonight, especially on the
lake plains. Areas near the eastern shores of Lake Ontario from
Oswego up to Watertown will have the best chance of seeing winds
gusts up to 50 mph overnight tonight, in the post-frontal cold
advection regime as the surface low continues to deepen moving
across southern Quebec. Farther west, it will be windy in the post-
frontal cold advection tonight, but gusts may generally be in the 35-
45 mph range.

KEY MESSAGE 4...A frontal system will bring accumulating snow, rain
and gusty winds to western and northcentral New York Friday into
Friday night.

Winds: A compact, but strong surface low will track from the western
Great Lakes Friday morning to far southern Quebec by Saturday
morning bringing another round of precipitation and strong winds. A
tight surface pressure gradient combined with a stout low level wind
field will result in windy conditions across the area, especially
Friday afternoon and Friday night. The strongest winds are expected
to impact areas from the Finger Lakes westward. At this point, winds
look to peak in the advisory level range. Of note is that the area
of low pressure will be slowly weakening as it progresses to the
east Friday into Saturday. This will allow the surface pressure
gradient and winds off the deck to weaken just a bit. If trends
remain consistent, this slow weakening of the system is what will
prevent what would have likely been warning criteria gusts for some
areas versus advisory level gusts. That said, a few spots may still
gust close to 50 knots.

Precipitation: Precipitation may start off as wet snow across much
of western NY to start Friday morning, however warming temperatures
will force a changeover to rain across the lower elevations, with a
rain/snow mix possible across the higher terrain as surface
temperatures climb well into the 30s and even some lower 40s. As the
precip moves into the eastern half of the area later Friday morning
into the afternoon, expect light rain across the lower elevations,
with p-type remaining all snow across the Tug Hill and western Dacks
where a slushy few inches may accumulate by late in the day. A cold
front will move east across the area late Friday and Friday evening
with another shot of colder air moving in behind the front. 850mb
temps will fall into the -10C to -12C range Friday night. Wraparound
moisture will help contribute to modest lake enhanced and upslope
snows east of Lake Ontario, with an additional several inches
possible across the Tug Hill and western Dacks Friday night. Only
minor accumulations expected elsewhere. Snow showers will taper off
Saturday as deeper moisture is stripped away, with minor additional
accumulations possible across the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario.


KEY MESSAGE 5...Active pattern continues late this weekend into
early next week as another system may bring the chance of rain,
snow, strong winds, and a return winter-like temperatures to western
New York.

As the active wave train continues across the northern CONUS, a
stronger push of colder air will dig a deeper, larger scale trough
across the eastern half of the US late this weekend into early next
week. This larger scale system looks to have an expansive warm
sector with warm southerly flow driving temperatures back above
normal briefly Sunday as the warm front lifts north with
precipitation traversing the region. Additional precipitation will
accompany the system`s cold front early Monday while also leading to
areas of lake effect snow showers under northwest flow in the
system`s wake. Latest guidance from the grand ensemble places
probabilities of 850mb winds >50 kt at 60-80% with a deepening
surface low moving northeast from eastern MI across southern Ontario
into Quebec that may need future monitoring for strong wind
potential. Plenty of uncertainty still needs to be resolved with the
track of this system based on ensemble guidance, which will have
ramification to ptype and strength of winds across western NY for
Sunday afternoon through Monday. The majority of this uncertainty
surrounds the timing for this system based on latest cluster
analysis. The interquartile range for 850mb temps is quite wide
between 2 to -12 degC early Monday morning, but most members are in
agreement with eventually dropping around -15 to -20 degC, below the
climatological 2nd percentile for mid-March.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stationary boundary extending across the Southern Tier of New York
State this morning. A few showers with embedded IFR/MVFR cigs will
continue this morning. Low pressure over southern Michigan this
morning will deepen as it moves northeast across Ontario and
into Quebec by tonight. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered
thunderstorms expected through this evening, with local
MVFR/IFR in the heavier downpours.

A strong low level jet will propagate across the eastern Great Lakes
today. This may initially produce some low level wind shear this
morning before surface gusts increase. Gusts may reach or exceed 30
this afternoon, especially across far Western New York.

Outlook...

Tonight...Rain and scattered thunderstorms early, then some light
snow showers overnight. MVFR/IFR conditions. Windy.

Thursday...Areas of MVFR/IFR with a few light snow showers likely
early, improving to mainly VFR. Windy.

Friday...Areas of MVFR/IFR with rain/snow showers likely. Windy.

Saturday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of a snow shower. Windy.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR with rain and snow likely. Windy.

&&

.MARINE...
A stationary boundary across the lower Great lakes this morning with
east/northeast winds to 25 knots on Lake Ontario, with lighter and
more variable winds on Lake Erie. SCAs will remain on lake Ontario
will later ts morning when winds temporarily diminish.

Low pressure will move from southern lower Michigan this morning to
southern Quebec tonight, with a strong cold front crossing the lower
Great Lakes this evening. West winds will rapidly increase following
the cold frontal passage, with a period of gales likely on Lake
Ontario tonight through early Thursday morning. Winds will
gradually diminish later Thursday.

A series of low pressure systems will cross the Great Lakes Friday
through early next week, with multiple rounds of gale force winds
likely.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing well above average temperatures will continue to support
rapid snowmelt across the North Country through today.
Significant snowpack and SWE remains across the higher terrain
of the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks. Rain will bring
another 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rain through tonight over much of
the region, including the North Country.

Rivers will continue to rise east of Lake Ontario from ongoing
snowmelt and rainfall. The Black River will likely flood
starting late tonight or early Thursday, with flooding
continuing through the weekend on this slow responding river.
The latest forecast shows the Black River at Watertown reaching
the high end of Minor Flood Stage, but moderate stage is
possible by the weekend, which would result in more significant
impacts.

Flooding is also possible on many other rivers that drain the
Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks tonight through the
end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     NYZ007.
     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
         Thursday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
         Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM
         EDT Thursday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ042-043.
         Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday
         for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Thursday
         for LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers/Hitchcock/JM/TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock/Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock/TMA