Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

292
FXUS61 KBUF 081741
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
141 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Next round of showers, with a few afternoon rumbles of thunder
possible Saturday into Saturday night.

2) Periods of unsettled and cool conditions to persist well
into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Next round of showers, with a few afternoon rumbles
of thunder possible Saturday into Saturday night

After a brief period of dry time this afternoon and tonight due to a
passing bubble of high pressure into the Mid-Atlantic, a southern
stream shortwave and upper level jet will support a baroclinic wave
to develop and track from the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania
overnight. Meanwhile along the northern edge of the baroclinic wave
increase frontogensis combined with thermal packing will support
another period of rain to the Southern Tier overnight through
Saturday morning. This patch of rain will move into the Finger Lakes
and Central NY for a few hours Saturday morning, with dry weather
prevailing to the north and west.

The next cold front will slide east across the Great Lakes Saturday
afternoon, supporting the next chance for scattered showers. Due to
the arrival of the cold front being during peak diurnal heating,
ample instability, shear, moisture, and lift will support afternoon
thunderstorms, where an isolated storm may become severe with the
main threats being winds and hail.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Periods of unsettled and cool conditions to
persist well into next week.

In the wake of a weak surface ridge passing across the Great Lakes
for Mother`s Day throughout the start of the new work week,
additional shortwave trough passages will round the base of the
longwave trough overhead, supporting continued chances for wet and
cool conditions Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR flight conditions to start the 18Z TAF cycle, and these flight
conditions will prevail into the evening hours with a Southeast
surface high pressure ridged across our region.

A shortwave trough will lift showers across the Ohio Valley
northward tonight, with a few showers possibly impacting the KJHW
terminal with ceiling heights lowering to IFR. North of this
activity the airfields will likely remain dry, though clusters of
MVFR ceiling heights will be possible through mid morning.

By late morning hours lake breeze circulations will develop, leaving
KBUF/KIAG/KROC, VFR with a light southwest breeze...though east of
Lake Ontario more of a southeast to southerly flow will prevail.

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible...likely after 18Z along
these lake breeze boundaries...aided by the passage of a cold front.

Outlook...

Saturday evening and night...MVFR with showers and thunderstorms
early, isolated showers late.

Sunday...A return to VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...MVFR with a chance for rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Light southwest winds will become southerly this afternoon,
freshening to 10 to 15 knots tonight through Saturday, supporting
winds and waves to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

A cold front will then cross the lower Great Lakes Saturday
afternoon through into Sunday morning resulting in southwest to west
winds to increase in the wake of the front, especially on Lake
Ontario. Wave action will become very choppy, with a chance of low
end Small Craft Advisory conditions at the east end of Lake Ontario
later Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...EAJ