Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

054
FXUS61 KBUF 220714
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
214 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake snows off Lake Ontario will move north and further weaken
today, with minor additional accumulations. Elsewhere...high
pressure will bring largely dry weather to the Lower Lakes. A
clipper system and its warm front will then bring some light
snow tonight which changes over to rain Tuesday. High pressure
builds into the Lower Lakes Tuesday night with dry weather
expected through Christmas eve.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake snows will begin to move back north as winds begin to back to
the west then west-southwest through this morning. As this
occurs...flow will weaken...and then lake snows off Lake Ontario
will also retract back toward the lakeshore. Additional
accumulations will be minor with no more than an inch or two at
best.

Otherwise...much of the area will see dry quiet weather as the
sfc ridge moves through the region. Highs today will largely be
found in the 30s.

A clipper system will move into the upper Great lakes tonight into
Tuesday, with a warm frontal segment extending in across the region.
Increasing isentropic lift and a swath of deeper moisture will bring
some light snowfall to Western New York overnight. Snowfall
wise...expect 1-2" at best for most locations by sunrise, maybe
a few spots seeing up to 3" but even that is a stretch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will sharpen as it moves from northern Ontario to
southern New England Tuesday through Tuesday night. A surface
low/clipper will follow a similar track, with a warm front moving
across the forecast area Tuesday morning, then a cold front
following on it`s heels late Tuesday. Isentropic lift over a narrow,
modestly moist region is expected to be across the region Tuesday
morning. The precipitation shield is expected to lift northeast
through the afternoon, exiting the North Country Tuesday night.
Initially, thermal profiles support snow across most of the region
Tuesday morning. Snow will change to rain or drizzle across the
lower elevations from west to east Tuesday. Colder, low level air
will support the chance for freezing rain or freezing drizzle across
the western Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes as the back
edge of the precipitation moves out of the area Tuesday morning.
Although only a day out, there remains uncertainty in the timing and
potential for ice accretion for this region Tuesday morning.

Snow is expected to have the longest residence time across the
Eastern Lake Ontario region, especially the higher terrain Tuesday.
Forecast snow accumulations of 1-3" is expected across western NY,
and 2-4" east of Lake Ontario. The axis of heavier snow may linger
across the Eastern Lake Ontario, and there is a chance for
accumulations of up to 7" on the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario
through the event. At this time, snow amounts remain under advisory
levels and due uncertainties, no headlines were issued this morning.

Another wave of snow may move across the Eastern Lake Ontario region
late Tuesday night, as the shortwave swings across New England. An
additional 1-2" of snow is possible for the higher terrain. Cold,
northwest flow will move across the region Tuesday night. High
pressure will move across the region Christmas Even. Ridging and
warm air advection will begin Wednesday night. A few showers may
brush the western Southern Tier as a weak wave passes to our
southwest late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A modest warming trend will move into the region Christmas Day and
Friday. Surface high pressure south of James Bay will build
southeast towards the Canadian Maritimes and New England. A pseudo-
stationary front across the Ohio Valley will put us near a track of
potential clippers late in the week/weekend. Besides a few potential
showers across the western Southern Tier Christmas Day, mostly dry
weather is expected. Confidence is increasing that widespread
precipitation will move across the region Friday through Friday
night. Rain is the favored ptype with the exception of snow across
the North Country. A progressive pattern continues through the
weekend with chances of rain and snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake snows and clouds will bring MVFR to IFR (KROC TO KFZY)
conditions southeast of Lake Ontario early this morning. As flow
backs more to the W and then WSW lake clouds and remain lake snows
will bring lower cigs and vsbys to KART through early this
afternoon.

Otherwise...high pressure building in will bring VFR for all other
terminals through much of today.

An approaching clipper system will bring some light snow to western
New York...resulting in MVFR cigs and possibly some IFR/MVFR vsbys
by this evening and tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with rain and snow.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with rain and snow showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will pass to our south today will largely bring
lighter winds and wave action. A weak clipper low will then pass
through the region late tonight and Tuesday bringing yet another
round of SCA conditions...before high pressure builds back in for
Wednesday and brings a return to lighter winds and lower waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ005-
     006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR