Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

707
FXUS61 KBUF 131048
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
648 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory issued for all of western and north-central NY from 11
AM to 8 PM Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A brief period of dangerous heat Tuesday, with very warm, but
less humid conditions today and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...A brief period of dangerous heat Tuesday, with
still very warm, but less humid conditions today and Wednesday.

Large dome of high pressure will expand east across much of the
central CONUS today, where its center will strengthen to an
impressive 600dam over the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great
Lakes region. The eastern periphery of this large ridge will then
expand east into the central and lower Great Lakes tonight and
Tuesday.

In response, surface temperatures will rise above average today,
however humidity levels will remain in check. This should keep heat
indices mainly in the mid 80s to around 90 this afternoon. Tuesday
will be the hottest day with 850mb temps rising into the the 22C-25C
range (99th percentile for mid July), with the higher-end values
across western NY. This will support highs in the low to mid 90s for
much of the region, likely approaching record territory. When
combined with rising humidity levels, heat index values are expected
to be in the mid and upper 90s across much of western and north
central NY, with low 100s possible across portions of the lake
plains, Genesee Valley, and Finger Lakes region. For these reasons
and in collaboration with surrounding offices, a Heat Advisory has
been issued for all of western and north-central NY from 11 AM to 8
PM Tuesday.

A fairly stout 30-40 knot LLJ will be located just 1-2 kft off the
deck Tuesday afternoon, allowing a good portion of those stronger
winds aloft to mix to the surface. When combined with a tightening
pressure gradient, expect to see frequent WSW to SW`erly gusts in
the 25-35 mph range, with a few gusts to 40 mph not out of the
question northeast of Lake Erie and east through northeast of Lake
Ontario. This will at least provide some natural relief to the heat,
especially across those areas downwind of the lakes. That said, with
lake surface temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s, it`s
cooling effects will be much less pronounced than earlier in the
season.

Very warm and humid conditions will remain into at least the first
part of Wednesday, before an approaching mid level trough and
surface cold front drop south out of eastern Canada ushering in
cooler and drier air from north to south through the second half of
the day. High temps will still range through the 80s by early
Wednesday afternoon, but dropping humidity levels will keep heat
indices about the same as the actual air temperature.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds over the area today providing VFR flight
conditions at all sites that will prevail throughout the period.

Mainly light southwest winds through tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers or a thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly light winds with waves generally less than one foot or less
today.

SW winds start to increase tonight, then freshen Tuesday as the
pressure gradient tightens well ahead of an approaching cold front,
with a period of SCA conditions possible from Tuesday through early
Wednesday morning, with the higher winds and waves expected on Lake
Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM