Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

945
FXUS61 KBUF 231802
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
202 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast snow accumulations have increased about an inch across the
higher terrain of Chautauqua and southern Erie counties through this
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow showers across the region through this evening, with
minor accumulating snow across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie.

2) Next round of active weather returns Wednesday night through
Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Light snow showers across the region through this
evening, with minor accumulating snow across the higher terrain east
of Lake Erie.

GOES WV imagery shows a shortwave trough traversing the Great Lakes
region this afternoon. Surface low pressure across the Mid-Atlantic
region will move off the east coast today. Northeast flow will back
to the northwest and low-level moisture and cold air will deepen
across the forecast area this afternoon. Upstream snow showers will
continue to move into western NY this afternoon, while steepening
lapse rates and daytime mixing supports additional scattered snow
showers across the remainder of the forecast area. As the shield of
snow showers moves east, cold air will deepen to -12C and lake
enhancement and upslope snow showers will pick up through this
evening. Little accumulation is expected across the region today,
however as the sunsets a brief period of accumulating snow is
expected across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier to the
Boston and Wyoming Hills. Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
are expected, with less than an inch across the lower elevations.

Strong high pressure will build into the region tonight and snow
showers are expected to end across western NY by midnight. A
northwest flow across Lake Ontario will likely maintain light snow
showers across the Finger Lakes region overnight. Less than an inch
of accumulation is expected across higher elevations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Next round of active weather returns Wednesday night
through Thursday night.

A west-to-east positioned stationary boundary will be draped from
the Ottawa Valley to northern NY Wednesday night. A weak wave
gliding east along this boundary and attendant wing of warm
advection may produce some precipitation, mainly in the form of
light rain showers across the eastern Lake Ontario region, with just
the chance for a few showers across western NY. A few wet snow
flakes may mix in across the Tug Hill/western Dacks, with any light
accumulating wet snows expected to remain to our northeast.

A few showers will remain possible Thursday morning before a more
potent system approaches the area later Thursday. Model trends
continue to show a further northward track of the low as it slides
east along this same stationary boundary, only now positioned a bit
further to the north across southeastern Ontario and far southern
Quebec. This increases confidence in the p-type being mainly, if not
entirely in the liquid form, at least for the bulk of the event. As
the low moves northeast of the area, it will send the boundary
southward through the area as a cold front later Thursday into
Thursday evening. Being solidly in the warm sector will allow PWATs
to rise over to an inch ahead of the boundary. Combined this with
strong forcing owed to a stout LL jet just in advance of the front,
am expecting a fairly heavy, but short-lived slug of rain to push
north to south through the area with the frontal passage...centered
on Thursday evening. Plenty of vertical shear and moisture will be
in place ahead of the front, however the overall stability of the
atmosphere and poor mid level lapse rates are expected to preclude
any severe threat, although a few general thunderstorms will be
possible and may locally enhance rainfall amounts. Precipitation may
end as a some scattered light snow showers as a much colder air mass
pours back in across the region later Thursday night into Friday
morning, however little to no accumulation is expected at this time
as drier air quickly works in. This cold air mass will linger into
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Prevailing MVFR conditions will continue across the region this
afternoon. A trough will swing across the Great Lakes region today,
and snow showers will move across western NY through early
evening. Additional widely scattered snow showers are possible
elsewhere. A cold northwest flow will produce lake enhancement
and upslope snow showers east of Lake Erie and southeast of Lake
Ontario through this evening. Snow showers are expected to
bring a reduction in visibility with periods of IFR or below
across the WNY terminals 18z-00z. Widely scattered snow showers
are expected across the North Country (ART) will little impact
to visibility.

Flight conditions will slowly improve overnight with MVFR conditions
persisting across the higher terrain across western NY. VFR
conditions are expected region-wide Tuesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR with rain showers likely and a chance of snow
showers.

Friday...MVFR/VFR with a slight chance of rain and snow showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
North winds become northwesterly this afternoon and another
brief uptick in winds will develop across Lake Erie and western
Lake Ontario through this evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for the central-southern coast of Lake Ontario through
this evening.

Winds and waves will drop off late tonight through Tuesday as
high pressure moves across the region. A southwest wind will
pick up on the waters Tuesday afternoon creating a little chop,
but Small Craft Advisory conditions are not expected at this
time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
         Tuesday for LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/JM
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK