Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

510
FXUS61 KBUF 251029
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
629 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Active weather returns for Thursday through Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Active weather returns for Thursday through Friday
morning.

Tonight, a stationary front draped from west to east over southern
Ontario and Quebec will provide the mechanism for weak waves/troughs
and warm air advection to push along. These weak troughs will track
across the region tonight through Thursday morning providing the
chance for showers across Western & North Central NY. The bulk of
the showers for tonight into Thursday morning are expected to remain
north of the area, but a few showers can`t be ruled out. In addition
to providing for some extra synoptic lift, warm air advection will
also increase temperatures for Thursday into the upper 50s to 60s
for most areas south of Lake Ontario and into the mid/upper 50s for
areas east of Lake Ontario.

As a shortwave trough tracking east along the US/Canadian border
amplifies in a previously mostly zonal flow, a large sfc low will
develop over the Northern Great Lakes tonight, and then track east
to the ON/QC border by Thursday afternoon. The sfc low will continue
to track east toward New England by Thursday evening. As the low
tracks east, it will cause the previous stationary front to drop
southeast as a cold front. As the front drops southeast, an influx
of moisture, along with passing warm frontal boundaries will
increase the potential for rain across the area. There remains
uncertainty with the strength of the passing warm front during the
mid-morning hours on Thursday, which may push some showers across
the area. Guidance does have rain filling in during the afternoon on
Thursday behind the passing warm front as moisture and synoptic lift
increases, from both the warm front and out ahead of the approaching
cold front. There may be enough clearing during the morning into
early afternoon hours to provide for some diurnal mixing, which
would allow for gusty winds across the area, with gusts up to the 30-
35 mph range possible, if mixing is more favorable. The potential
for mixing, along with a tightening pressure gradient and LLJ over
the area will increase the potential for gusty winds to reach the
sfc.

Some thunderstorms can be expected for Thursday afternoon/evening
ahead of and with the front, but instability is generally pretty
low. There is some higher shear values expected across SW NY,
where a `Marginal Risk` for severe thunderstorms is in place by
SPC. Rain with this system will be moderate to heavy at times,
but should move through the region at a fairly quick speed,
helping to limit the rainfall amounts to between a third to two
thirds of an inch. There still remains some uncertainty with the
timing of the cold frontal passage, but the later portion of the
evening for frontal passage is starting to look more certain.
Most guidance does bring the front and system through pretty
quickly with any scenario as a large trough develops over the
eastern portion of North America behind this system.

Cool cyclonic flow over the region will continue to promote the
potential for lingering showers into the morning on Friday. With
cold air rushing back into the region behind the passing cold front,
precipitation will end as snow Friday morning. The push of cold air
will also result in another couple of days of cool temperatures for
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR CIGS prevail this morning across western and north
central New York, despite a weak cold frontal boundary sagging south
into northern New York. With this front, some lower CIGS of MVFR may
be possible across areas east of Lake Ontario, impacting KART this
morning due to the close proximity of the frontal boundary.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail today and into this evening,
however as a surface warm front approaches the region later today
and overnight, expect mid level clouds to push across the region
along with some LLWS impacting mainly WNY TAF sites.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR deteriorating to IFR late afternoon and evening with
rain developing. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Rain may end as a
brief period of light snow showers late Thursday night.

Friday...Areas of MVFR CIGS with a chance of scattered light snow
showers in the morning, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate chop will continue on Lake Ontario early this
morning before subsiding by day break.

Southwesterly breezes will start to increase Thursday ahead of a
cold front that will cross the Lower Great Lakes first half of
Thursday night, with a round of Small Craft Advisories possible on
Lake Ontario second half of Thursday night through Friday afternoon
under a freshening N to NW flow in the wake of the cold frontal
passage.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/JM