Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

584
FXUS61 KBUF 112255
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
655 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Confidence continues to increase for a brief period of
potentially dangerous heat early next week, especially Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Confidence continues to increase for a brief period of
potentially dangerous heat early next week, especially Tuesday.

A high pressure ridge currently spanning across the four corners
region will expand across much of the central CONUS through this
weekend and into early next week. The 500mb high looks to reach near
600dam over the northern plains into the upper Great Lakes region
Monday before expanding eastward.

While temperatures will climb above average on Monday, southerly
moisture advection will just be getting established as the
weekend`s high pressure begins to shift off the Atlantic Coast,
helping to keep heat index values not too far off from observed
temperatures. However, humidity will be on the rise headed into
Tuesday along with 850mb temperatures climbing above the 99th
percentile for mid-July around 22-24 degC. This would support
Tuesday afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to mid-90s and
heat index values reaching up near the triple digits south of
Lake Ontario from the Niagara Escarpment eastward towards the
northern Finger Lakes region.

Two considerations for this next warm period across western NY are
1) increasing pressure gradient associated with a deeper low
crossing Hudson Bay well to the north will lead to breezy conditions
Tuesday providing relief from the heat, especially northeast of the
lakes, and 2) this larger system moving into eastern Canada looks to
breakdown/disrupt the upper level ridging pattern enough to limit
this heat wave to just one day. While temperatures will still remain
above average into late next week, western NY looks to end up on the
cooler side of the trailing cold front late in the week, however
uncertainty still remains at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Much drier air is continuing to infiltrate the area. This should
result in much lower probabilities of fog toward morning in the
valleys around the hills of the Southern Tier and KJHW.
Elsewhere, clear skies and nothing but a cumulus cloud or two on
Sunday resulting in VFR conditions throughout the forecast
period on a weakening NNE flow.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds gusting 10-15 kt will continue to result in a period
of 1-3 foot waves through this afternoon and early evening for Lakes
Erie and Ontario. Light winds are expected through the remainder of
the weekend into Monday as high pressure settles over the area.
Pressure gradients begin to tighten Tuesday that will lead to gusty
winds and notable wave activity.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers
AVIATION...Fries
MARINE...Brothers