Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

342
FXUS61 KBUF 021823
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
223 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have increased winds and wind gusts tonight and Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Risk of showers and a few thunderstorms through Friday, but
additional flooding is not expected.

2) Rather windy conditions developing tonight and Friday.

3) Increasing confidence in another round of showers with embedded
thunderstorms with the potenial for heavy rainfall Saturday through
Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Risk of showers and a few thunderstorms through
Friday, but additional flooding is not expected.

A mid-level trough and slowly weakening surface low over the Upper
Midwest will make their way northeastward across the Upper Great
Lakes tonight...then across southern Quebec on Friday. A warm front
extending southeastward from the low will lift across our area
through tonight...with a shortwave/trailing weak surface trough then
sliding across our area late tonight/Friday morning...followed by a
weak trailing cold front Friday afternoon and evening.

Each of the above features will generate a brief round of scattered
to numerous showers as they cross our region. With weak instability
(MUCAPEs of a few hundred J/kg) arriving across far southwestern New
York later this afternoon and then spreading northeastward through
tonight and Friday...a few embedded thunderstorms will also be
possible at times. This being said...basin average rainfall amounts
through Friday look to remain under a quarter to a third of an
inch...and therefore unlikely to lead to any additional flooding
concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rather windy conditions developing tonight and
Friday.

A strong (55-65 kt) low level jet accompanying the above system will
overspread our region from west to east tonight...then will weaken
and shift eastward late tonight and Friday in association with its
parent low. While stable temperature profiles will prevent the
strongest winds aloft from mixing to the surface through early
Friday morning...still expect to see some southeasterly/southerly
gusts to 40-45 mph across the higher terrain and in areas of favored
downslope flow tonight into early Friday morning. The strongest
gusts will be most likely along the Lake Erie shoreline of
Chautauqua county...where a few marginal advisory-level gusts cannot
be ruled out. East of Lake Ontario...some stronger gusts will also
likely develop within the Black River Valley.

On Friday increasing daytime heating/mixing will help to better mix
some of the winds from the weakening/departing low level jet down to
the surface...particularly as we move from the late morning hours
into the afternoon and thermal profiles become more conducive. This
will allow for a period of stronger southwesterly gusts to 40-45 mph
downwind of Lake Erie...with a few marginal advisory-level gusts
again not completely out of the question. Elsewhere...winds should
gust to 25 to 35 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Increasing confidence in another round of showers
with embedded thunderstorms with the potenial for heavy rainfall
Saturday through Sunday morning.

Heading into the later half of the weekend, a trough spread across
the lee side of the Rockies, Friday afternoon will deepen and lift
northeast into the Great Lakes late Saturday into Sunday night. In
turn this will support a pair of frontal boundaries (warm, then
cold) to pass across the region late this weekend. In the wake of
the warm front lifting north across the region Saturday morning,
bringing a chance for showers, ample warm moist air from the Gulf
will spill across the lower Great Lakes region. Despite limited
instability (MUCAPE of 250 to 750 J/kg) with ample shear, severe
thunderstorms will be possible, with the main threat being damaging
winds and isolated hail. Additionally with PWAT values of 1.25
inches (approaching climatological daily maximum of around 1.3
inches on April 5 at 00Z), any thunderstorms that do form will have
the potential for heavy rainfall, where rainfall amounts will range
from 0.75 inches across WNY to over an inch, possibly near an inch
and a quarter across the eastern Lake Ontario region.

To summarize, with the cold frontal passage there is a Marginal Risk
for both Severe Thunderstorms (per the Storm Prediction Center) and
Excessive Rainfall (per the Weather Prediction Center) Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of early afternoon the surface warm front is now in the process
of lifting back northward across our region...with a few showers in
the process of crossing western New York. These will continue to
lift northeastward through the rest of the afternoon and evening...
with a few more showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
becoming possible across far WNY late this afternoon and early this
evening. In general...IFR to MVFR ceilings out ahead of the front
(with MVFR visibilities possible within any showers) will improve to
VFR across the lake plains of far WNY through early this evening as
the warm front lifts northward...and a drying downslope flow sets up
in its wake.

Tonight a few more rain showers and possibly a couple isolated
thunderstorms will be possible as the warm front continues lifting
northward to Lake Ontario...with brief/localized restrictions
possible within these. Meanwhile flight conditions will continue to
gradually improve to VFR across the remainder of the lake plains...
while the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and North Country will
generally see continued IFR/MVFR ceilings. A 55-65 knot low level
jet will also overspread the region from west to east as we push
through the night...leading to the development of LLWS in many
areas...with some surface-based gusts to 35 knots or so becoming
possible within areas of favored downslope southerly flow.

On Friday the passage of a weak shortwave/surface trough in the
morning followed by a trailing weak cold front in the afternoon will
set off a few more showers and possibly a couple more storms...with
brief/localized restrictions again possible with these. Otherwise
flight conditions will largely be a mix of MVFR/VFR areawide after
about mid morning...with the LLWS also dissipating with increasing
diurnal mixing and weakening of the low level jet. This being
said...the latter will also lead to the development of rather breezy
to windy conditions...particularly downwind of Lake Erie where
southwesterly gusts to 35-40 knots will be likely from mid-late
morning into the afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...Periods of rain with non-VFR are expected.
Scattered thunderstorms are also possible through Saturday night.

Sunday night through Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow
showers...with IFR possible in areas of lake effect snow showers
east/southeast of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated east-northeasterlies will continue on Lake Ontario into
early this evening...before turning southerly and freshening with
the passage of a warm front. The former will maintain advisory-level
conditions across the southwestern portion of Lake Ontario into this
evening...with the latter then likely generating SCA conditions
across the eastern end of the lake as we push through tonight.
Increasingly brisk southerlies will also develop on Lake Erie...and
will likely also lead to advisory-worthy conditions there as well in
spite of the unfavorable wind direction. Elevated southwesterlies
are then expected to follow on Friday...likely resulting in
continued SCA conditions.

Otherwise, the next period of concern will be Saturday night into
Monday, as a cold front ushers in west winds of 20 to 25 knots. A
Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed during this time period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Several creeks and rivers remain in flood, including the Tonawanda
Creek, Black Creek at Churchville, and the Oatka Creek at Garbutt.
In addition...the Black River is expected to reach flood stage at
Watertown later this evening. These slower responding waterways will
remain in flood into Friday and/or Friday night.

The passage of another low pressure system and its associated warm
and cold fronts will then bring the risk for additional of moderate
to possibly heavy showers and thunderstorms Saturday and especially
Saturday night...a potential that will need to be closely watched
given our still nearly-saturated ground conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ/JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...JJR