Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

471
FXUS61 KBUF 120519
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
119 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread frost and freeze conditions early this morning.

2) Periods of rain Tuesday night through Wednesday, with a few
thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

3) Slow-moving low pressure system will keep unsettled weather
over the area Wednesday night and Thursday, with a very gradual
west to east drying trend Thursday night through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread frost and freeze conditions early this
morning.

A surface ridge will crest over the eastern Great Lakes this
morning, with light winds and clear skies in this cool airmass
allowing for ideal radiational cooling. Daybreak temperatures will be
in the low to mid 30s in most areas, with upper 20s across the
normally colder Southern Tier Valleys and Tug Hill region.
Widespread frost/freeze conditions will continue through early
morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Periods of rain Tuesday night through Wednesday,
with a few thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

A sharp mid level trough will dig into the central Great Lakes
tonight, then slowly move towards the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday,
gradually evolving into a closed mid level circulation. An
associated surface low will reach the central Great Lakes late
tonight, then move east towards Lake Ontario by late Wednesday. A
warm front downstream of the surface low will move from southwest to
northeast across our region later tonight through Wednesday morning.

Increasing isentropic upglide and moisture transport atop the
approaching warm front will couple with DPVA, height falls, and
mid/upper level diffluence ahead of the approaching trough to
support a period of deep layer ascent later tonight through
Wednesday morning. The warm front will initially be moving into a
dry incipient airmass this evening, with plenty of sub-cloud
evaporation resulting in just spotty light rain across Western NY.
The rain will become more widespread and soaking across Western NY
late tonight through early Wednesday morning, and mainly Wednesday
morning east of Lake Ontario as the strongest forcing and deepest
moisture cross the area.

A mid level dry slot will then move into the eastern Great Lakes
late morning through afternoon Wednesday, allowing the initial
widespread rain to become more showery in nature. Forecast soundings
and CAMS guidance suggest the airmass will become unstable enough by
afternoon to support a few scattered thunderstorms, mainly from the
Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes and southern Tug Hill region. A
gusty southwest wind off Lake Erie will likely allow a stable lake
shadow to develop across the Niagara Frontier by Wednesday
afternoon, lowering the chance of showers locally despite the
background synoptic scale forcing.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Slow-moving low pressure system will keep
unsettled weather over the area Wednesday night and Thursday,
with a very gradual west to east drying trend Thursday night
through Friday.

Large upper level trough digging across the Great Lakes Wednesday
will become a closed low, while all but stalling out over the Lower
Great region for Wednesday night and Thursday. Cold cyclonic flow
aloft will guarantee unsettled weather continues across our area
during this period. The low will become vertically stacked as the
system slowly drifts east-southeast across the region. In terms of
sensible weather, expect on and off bouts of rain showers as spokes
of upper level energy and associated surface troughs pinwheel about
the main low. While the large upper low will provide plenty of lift,
the deeper moisture will reside to the east of the area, thus expect
rounds of mainly light showers as each disturbance rotates through
the region with non-impactful rainfall amounts in terms of any heavy
rain/flooding threat. The system`s occluded boundary is progged to
get hung up across central and eastern NY, as result showers will
likely be more numerous across the eastern Lake Ontario region along
with a bit more in the way of QPF, while western NY remains in the
lighter wraparound moisture/shower regime on the back side of the
low.

Though ridging starts to ever so slowly nudge in from the west
Thursday night, the stubborn cut-off low will be tough to dislodge
and will only lethargically exit east, making it to the New England
coastline by late Friday. This will translate to very slow west-to-
east drying. In fact, this is a scenario where far western NY may
dry out by later Thursday night, while areas east of Lake Ontario
hold onto at least the chance of rain showers through the day Friday
as that area remains under the influence of the western flank of the
upper low and ridging builds into far western NY. Also need to keep
in mind that model guidance tends to struggle with cut-off low
scenarios, so confidence in exact timing and movement of the system
and associated features remains medium at best as of this update.

Looking a bit further down the road, confidence continues to grow in
a significant pattern change resulting in above average temperatures
this weekend, possibly climbing well above average by the start of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes this morning will
drift to the eastern seaboard this afternoon. VFR will prevail with
clear skies this morning giving way to thickening and lowering
mid/high clouds later this afternoon and evening ahead of the next
system.

A strong mid level trough and associated surface low will move into
the central Great Lakes tonight. A warm front downstream of the low
will move from southwest to northeast across the eastern Great Lakes
late tonight through Wednesday morning. Increasing ascent and deep
moisture along and ahead of the warm front will support widespread
rain developing from west to east later tonight through Wednesday
morning. VSBY may drop to MVFR at times in steadier rain as low
levels begin to saturate. CIGS will stay VFR trough the first half
of the night, with areas of MVFR developing late tonight through
Wednesday morning.

A 40-50 knot low level jet will cross the eastern Great Lakes late
tonight through Wednesday morning. This may initially result in low
level wind shear across Western NY, then surface gusts will increase
into the 20-30 knot range Wednesday morning as the boundary layer
begins to partially mix stronger winds down to the surface.

Outlook...

Wednesday... Areas of MVFR and local IFR with occasional showers.
Scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, mainly from
the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes to the Tug Hill region.

Thursday through Thursday night...Areas of MVFR with showers likely
at times.

Friday...A chance of showers, mainly east of Lake Ontario. Areas of
MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes this morning will drift
to the eastern seaboard this afternoon. Light synoptic scale flow
and strong differential heating will allow lake breeze circulations
to develop midday through the afternoon, with winds becoming onshore
along all the nearshore zones. Winds will generally remain 10 knots
or less with flat wave action.

Low pressure will then move into the central Great Lakes tonight,
reaching the lower Great Lakes Wednesday. Southeast winds will ramp
up ahead of this system later tonight through Wednesday morning,
likely bringing a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to the
east end of Lake Ontario. Winds will become more southwesterly with
time later Wednesday, with a moderate chop on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Lighter winds will return by Thursday with a weakening
pressure gradient across the lower Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001>005-014.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ006>008-
     010>013-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock