Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

640
FXUS61 KBUF 122346
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) After a break in shower activity tonight, gusty winds and
more rain arrive Monday.

2) Continued much warmer and unsettled weather through much of the
mid to late week period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...After a break in shower activity tonight, gusty
winds and more rain arrive Monday.

The warm front will move north of the region this evening,
supporting a period of dry time across much of the region overnight.
Although, a few showers may be possible across the far portions of
the North Country due to the close proximity of the front.

A cold front will approach the region from the west early Monday
morning before crossing from west to east throughout the remainder
of Monday. With its passage, expect rain showers to return to
the region from west to east. Additionally, a strong (over 50kt)
low- level jet within the warm sector will cross the eastern
Great Lakes region Monday ahead of the cold front. Despite poor
low-level lapse rates, partial mixing will support wind gusts
between 25-35 mph across much of the region, where a few over
40mph gusts will be possible northeast of Lake Erie across the
Niagara Frontier to Rochester.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued much warmer and unsettled weather through
much of the mid to late week period.

Following the passage of Monday`s weak system...the rest of the work
week will feature digging troughing across western North America...
which in turn will translate into gradually amplifying downstream
ridging over the eastern CONUS. Within this slowly amplifying larger-
scale flow...multiple weak to modest shortwave disturbances will
ripple east-northeastward while interacting with/modulating the
position of a low-level frontal zone draped across the Great Lakes
and Northeast. This will result in the latter wavering back and
forth over/near our region while also serving as the conduit for
periodic rounds of showers and widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorms.

Taking a little bit of a deeper dive into the details...we can
expect a veritable train of hard-to-time weak shortwave impulses to
track across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario/Quebec Monday
night through Wednesday...with at least a couple of attendant
surface lows lifting northeastward along the frontal boundary left
behind by Monday`s system. The passage of these features will
encourage the front to lift back northward again as a warm front in
a couple of segments between later Monday night/Tuesday and Tuesday
night/early Wednesday...with the boundary then settling back south
again as a cold front later Wednesday following the passage of the
second surface wave. Consequently...we can expect frequent
opportunities for showers during this 48 hour period. In addition...
building warmth/moisture will also allow for the development of at
least modest to locally moderate instability both Tuesday and
Wednesday...which should be supportive of at least some widely
scattered/scattered thunderstorms both days. This will particularly
be the case along/on the warm side of any developing lake breeze
boundaries and Wednesday`s cold frontal passage. The above said...
elevated instability attendant to the warm frontal segments could
also lead to a few nocturnal/early morning storms as well Monday
night into Tuesday morning...and again Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. With PWATs climbing to between 1.25" and 1.50"...any
heavier showers or storms could generate locally heavy downpours.

Heading into the latter part of the week...a stronger shortwave
trough over the Plains states still looks to slide eastward across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday night through Thursday
night...with its associated surface low making its way from the
Upper Mississippi Valley to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The passage
of this next system will again cause the frontal boundary to lift
back north across our region as a warm front Wednesday night/early
Thursday...then back south as a cold front later Thursday/Thursday
night. This will generate additional rounds of showers and a few
more thunderstorms...with modest ridging at all levels then building
overhead in time to finally support a mainly dry and quiet Friday.

As for temperatures...this pattern will support readings more
typical of late springtime/early summer than the second week of
April. Expect daily highs to range from the upper 60s to the 70s
away from lake influences...with a few of our normal interior warm
spots in the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes possibly even reaching or
breaking the 80 degree mark at points. Meanwhile...nightly lows will
largely be in the 50s/lower 60s. With surface dewpoints also
climbing into the upper 50s/lower 60s it will also feel a touch
humid for much of the Tuesday-Thursday period...before humidity
levels drop off again for the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue across western and north-central NY
this evening. A low level jet will move overhead tonight with 45-
50knots at 1-2k above the surface. Low level wind shear is
anticipated at all the TAF sites, with occasional weaker gusts
reaching the surface by daybreak.

An upper level disturbance will move northwest of the area Monday
morning. A weak cold front and rain showers will cross the region.
The chance for showers is higher across the Buffalo-Rochester
corridor and Watertown. Mostly dry weather with widely scattered
showers across interior portions of the region Monday afternoon.
Flight conditions will become MVFR from west to east Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Thursday...VFR/MVFR (IFR at times) with a few
showers likely at times, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
The area will remain between exiting high pressure to the east, and
an approaching warm front, supporting an increasing pressure
gradient and a gradual strengthening of offshore winds. There will
be a more noticeable uptick in the winds this evening, with a fresh
south to south-southwest breeze developing on the lakes tonight and
Monday. A period of strong southerly breezes across the eastern
third of Lake Ontario will begin this evening, with winds and waves
increasing across the eastern end of Lake Erie and the western half
of Lake Ontario overnight. Small Craft headlines are in effect
through Monday before winds and waves subside below advisory
criteria Monday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EDT Monday
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ/JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...EAJ/HSK