Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

454
FXUS61 KBUF 082335
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
735 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Next round of showers, with a few afternoon rumbles of thunder
possible Saturday into Saturday night.

2) Periods of unsettled and cool conditions to persist well
into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Next round of showers, with a few afternoon rumbles
of thunder possible Saturday into Saturday night

After a brief period of dry time this afternoon and tonight due to a
passing bubble of high pressure into the Mid-Atlantic, a southern
stream shortwave and upper level jet will support a baroclinic wave
to develop and track from the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania
overnight. Meanwhile along the northern edge of the baroclinic wave
increase frontogensis combined with thermal packing will support
another period of rain to the Southern Tier overnight through
Saturday morning. This patch of rain will move into the Finger Lakes
and Central NY for a few hours Saturday morning, with dry weather
prevailing to the north and west.

The next cold front will slide east across the Great Lakes Saturday
afternoon, supporting the next chance for scattered showers. Due to
the arrival of the cold front being during peak diurnal heating,
ample instability, shear, moisture, and lift will support afternoon
thunderstorms, where an isolated storm may become severe with the
main threats being winds and hail.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Periods of unsettled and cool conditions to
persist well into next week.

In the wake of a weak surface ridge passing across the Great Lakes
for Mother`s Day throughout the start of the new work week,
additional shortwave trough passages will round the base of the
longwave trough overhead, supporting continued chances for wet and
cool conditions Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Shortwave energy across the Ohio Valley will clip the Lower Great
Lakes overnight into Saturday morning. This will likely bring
showers to the Southern Tier of NY overnight, though the northern
extent of shower coverage will remain very limited. CAMS remain
split in impacts at KJHW, with higher confidence of showers a bit
further east across KOLE and KELZ. Cigs are expected to deteriorate
to MVFR with areas of IFR in this area, while further north VFR will
continue to prevail. Otherwise, winds will become southerly but
remain under 10kts overnight.

Saturday, the southern shortwave will climb a bit further
northeastward and bring additional showers and MVFR cigs to portions
of WNY and the Finger Lakes, though likely away from the TAF sites
aside from KJHW. Lake breeze circulations will likely form as well,
though southerly flow is expected to prevail at the TAF sites.

A cold front approaching from the west will then bring a round of
more widespread showers and potentially a few thunderstorms after
21z Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday night...MVFR with showers and thunderstorms early, isolated
showers late.

Sunday...A return to VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...MVFR with a chance for rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Variable southerly winds will persist across the lakes tonight into
Saturday morning. The breeziest conditions will likely be along the
eastern end of Lake Ontario, though winds will remain below
15kts. This will support wave action below Small Craft Advisory
criteria.

A cold front will then cross the lower Great Lakes Saturday
afternoon through into Sunday morning resulting in southwest to west
winds to increase in the wake of the front, especially on Lake
Ontario. Wave action will become very choppy, with a chance of low
end Small Craft Advisory conditions at the east end of Lake Ontario
later Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...EAJ/PP