Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

510
FXUS61 KBUF 112305
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
605 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The widespread snow showers and lake effect snow from earlier today
is starting to weaken this evening with the arrival of drier air.
Expect a rapid downward trend in snow coverage and intensity through
the evening hours, with just a few light snow showers left across
the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and Wayne to Oswego
counties off Lake Ontario by mid to late evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A period of lake enhanced/lake effect snow, mainly east of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario tonight. Winds gusting to 35 to 45 mph will
also produce areas of blowing and drifting snow.

2) A clipper low will enhance lake snows Monday and Monday night,
mainly east of Lake Ontario with additional modest accumulations.

3) Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday night through
Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and mixed
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A period of lake enhanced/lake effect snow, mainly
east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight. Winds gusting to 35 to
45 mph will also produce areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Synoptic moisture wrapping in behind the primary surface low,
combined with cold advection behind a passing cold front will
support a round of lake enhanced/lake effect snow through tonight.

Steering flow turning west-northwest with the passage of a
secondary cold front will result in the most organized snows,
primarily impacting areas east-southeast of the lakes late this
afternoon and this evening. Building low-level ridging and
associated drying/subsidence/warming aloft will then result in
the lake snows weakening into some lingering snow showers from
west to east through the first half of tonight, before gradual
backing flow starts sending the latter back northward again by
later on tonight.

Snowfall amounts still look to be on the order of 3-6" across the
higher terrain east of both lakes, but with winds of 35-45 mph also
producing areas of blowing snow. Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect east of Lake Erie through the first half of tonight and
through Monday night east of Lake Ontario when taking into
consideration the additional snowfall expected there Monday and
Monday night. See Key Message 2.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A clipper low will enhance lake snows Monday and
Monday night, mainly east of Lake Ontario with additional modest
accumulations.

A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes, reaching the
eastern Great Lakes Monday. Warm air advection will be found ahead
of this shortwave, making poorer conditions for lake effect snow,
though this feature will bring back ample moisture supporting snow
growth. Temperatures at 850 mb around -10C over Lake Ontario will
be just cold enough to allow for a band of lake enhanced snow,
which combined with upslope terrain east of Lake Ontario, will
bring additional snow accumulation on the Tug Hill and western
Adirondack foot hills. Lower terrain will remain with much less
snow accumulation.

East of Lake Erie temperatures of 850 mb will be too warm for a
lake response with the -6 to -7C air just cold enough for a few
lake enhanced snow showers, combined with general lift ahead of
the shortwave snow that around an inch of snow will accumulate
in spots.

It is possible that the warmer environment the snow DGZ will be
elevated, possibly above the layer of low level moisture, which may
allow for the snow to taper off with a little freezing drizzle
Monday evening and overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday
night through Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and
mixed precipitation.

Ahead of a slightly deepening surface low, forecast models still
have around a 50 knots low level jet across the area Tuesday night,
with the jet supporting warming in the lower atmosphere. NBM
probabilities have a 40 to 50 percent chance for southwest wind
gusts to 30 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline and across the metro
Buffalo/Niagara Falls area Tuesday evening.

The warmer temperatures will support mainly rain Tuesday night.
Overall, rainfall will be light to modest, with lake enhanced and
upslope terrain effects possibly yielding up to a third of an inch
of liquid before a change over back to snow later Wednesday. Thus
hydro concerns will remain low.

Light rain and higher terrain snow Tuesday night into Wednesday will
become all snow Wednesday evening following the passage of a strong
cold front. Models continue to have disagreement with the depth and
placement of a closed low within an upper level trough to our west
Thursday and into Friday. Greater certainty in the return to cold
air with good agreement that 850 hPa temperatures will drop 10 or so
degrees behind the cold front into Thursday, which could lead to
some lake snows on a northerly flow. Dry, arctic air will not
support any significant snow accumulation for the lake snows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Snow showers and lake effect snow east of the lakes will rapidly
diminish in coverage and intensity from west to east this evening as
drier air builds into the eastern Great Lakes. Expect nothing more
than a few light snow showers across the western Southern Tier off
Lake Erie, and southeast of Lake Ontario by mid to late evening.
CIGS/VSBY will improve to VFR for lower elevations from late evening
through the overnight, with MVFR lingering across the higher terrain
including KJHW.

Monday, another mid level trough and weak surface trough will cross
the eastern Great Lakes. Boundary layer flow will back from WNW to
WSW, and increased moisture and synoptic scale ascent will allow for
lake effect snow to increase in coverage and intensity east of the
lakes. Off Lake Ontario, expect snow to center on the northern Tug
Hill Plateau most of the day, with at least the northern edge of the
band clipping KART with periods of IFR. Heavier snow across the Tug
Hill may bring LIFR there. Off Lake Erie, lake effect snow showers
will develop near KBUF and continue through the day with MVFR/IFR
VSBY.

Wind gusts of 30-35 knots this evening will diminish overnight.
Winds will ramp up again Monday as the trough crosses the eastern
Great Lakes. Expect gusts of 20-30 knots for most of the area, and
locally 30-40 knots northeast of Lake Erie including KBUF and KIAG
from late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night...Localized IFR/LIFR with mixed lake effect
precipitation east/northeast of the lakes. Mainly VFR/MVFR elsewhere.

Tuesday...VFR to MVFR.

Tuesday night...Mainly MVFR with increasing chances for rain. Wet
snow at higher elevations with attendant IFR conditions.

Wednesday...MVFR with a mix of rain and snow showers, with IFR
possible in any snow showers.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with localized lake enhanced snow showers
possible east-southeast of the lakes.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with localized lake effect snow showers east-
northeast of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Widespread southwesterly to westerly gales will continue across
Lakes Erie and Ontario into this evening. Looking further out
through the first half of the week, elevated southwesterly to
westerly flow looks to continue, with at least advisory-level
conditions persisting across the Lower Lakes the majority of the
time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-
     020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas/TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...JJR/TMA