Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

901
FXUS61 KBUF 021733
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
133 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor edits made with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity continues through Friday, then
gradually lessening heat/humidity for the holiday weekend.

2) Showers and thunderstorms possible at times through the weekend,
a few of which may be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity continues through
Friday, then gradually lessening heat/humidity for the holiday
weekend.

Strong, dominant mid and upper level ridge over the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic region will begin to slide east towards the coast
through the end of the weekend. Overall this will support the
continuation of oppressive heat and humidity across the eastern
Great Lakes today, before a slight cool down starts Friday.

High temperatures today will solidly be in the mid 90s for areas
away from any lake influences. A few of the climatological warmer
locations will have a few readings in the upper 90s, with even the
higher elevations across the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario
region reading in the upper 80s to near 90. These high temperatures
combined with the dewpoint readings in the mid to upper 70s are
resulting in dangerous heat index values. Peak heat index values
this afternoon will reach the 104 to 108 range in the Extreme Heat
Warning areas, and the 98 to 104 range in the Heat Advisory areas.
The Buffalo Metro area and Jefferson County will continue to benefit
from southwest flow off the cooler lakes over the next few days, but
it will still be very warm and humid nonetheless.

As the mid and upper level ridge begins to retreat back into the
southeastern portions of the CONUS for the end of the week and the
weekend. This being said, Friday will still remain hot and humid,
though it will be a few degrees lower than today for both
temperature and dew point temperatures. A frontal boundary will sag
southward across the Great Lakes and support some relief to the heat
and humidity. Daytime highs will settle back into the mid to upper
80s Saturday and the low to mid 80s Sunday. While temperatures will
be cooling, should note that it will still be humid, however
conditions won`t be as oppressive as today and Thursday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms possible at times through
the weekend, a few of which may be strong to severe.

Synoptic pattern remains similar today as it has been the past few
days as the area remains on the northern periphery of the strong
ridge over the Ohio Valley. Heat and humidity will will continue to
support strong instability to persist across the area. Weak
convectively modulated shortwave troughs will pass along the top of
the ridge from the upper Great Lakes to southern Quebec and northern
New England this afternoon through the overnight hours. As such,
widely scattered convection will pass east-southeast across the area
this evening. There is a chance of another cluster of more organized
convection if efficient merging of cold pools take place which will
result in the development of an MCS, thus bringing a risk for
damaging wind gusts along with it.

Friday`s pattern will look similar to today`s with a frontal zone
oriented east west across the Great Lakes. Again, increasing
westerly flow on the northern periphery of the upper level ridge
will allow for a series of convectively modulated shortwaves to
traverse the Great Lakes region, supporting an increase in large-
scale ascent as well as an associated risk of showers and
thunderstorms. 12Z guidance is depicting organized thunderstorms to
arrive Friday evening and drop south across the area throughout
Friday night. Given the degree of instability and weak to moderate
shear profiles, locally strong to severe storms are again possible
with the primary risk being damaging winds.

Unsettled weather will then continue through the holiday weekend and
into the start of next week as the aforementioned frontal boundary
remains in proximity to the forecast area and shortwave troughs
ripple across the Great Lakes. A somewhat deeper mid level trough
will gradually evolve Sunday into Monday, with associated large
scale ascent continuing to support the chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Primarily dry weather and VFR are expected through 18Z/Fri as a
surface ridge anchored near the Mid and Upper OH Valley continues to
affect western and central NY. Our regional surface winds trend
SW`erly to W`erly around 5 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 to 25 knots
are expected at times before 00Z/Fri and after ~14Z/Fri.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop along
the Lakes Huron, Erie, and Ontario lake breeze fronts late this
afternoon and early evening, especially in southern ON and north-
central NY. These showers/storms should then persist generally
ESE`ward and impact portions of western and central NY between
~23Z/Thurs and ~04Z/Fri. Farther upstream, additional showers and
thunderstorms may persist generally ESE`ward and impact western and
central Lake Ontario and vicinity, including KIAG and KROC, after
~15Z/Fri. Showers/storms are expected to produce periods of heavy
rainfall and brief MVFR to LIFR. Frequent lightning and
brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 40 to 50 knots should
accompany storms.

Outlook...

Friday through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms
likely, especially in the afternoon and evening. Brief/localized IFR
and gusty winds in storms are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds around 15 knots will continue to produce choppy
conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today, but winds and waves
will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A light chop will
continue Friday with west to southwest winds in the 10-15 knot
range. Winds will diminish over the weekend as the pressure gradient
relaxes across the lower Great Lakes.

There will be a chance of a few thunderstorms at times this
afternoon through the weekend. Some storms will produce gusty winds
and locally higher waves.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dangerous heat and humidity are expected across western and
north central NY this week. Here are the record maximum and high
minimum temperatures for Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown.

                    7/2         7/3
Buffalo, NY
High Max          94(1966)    94(1949)
High Low          75(1931)    74(1911*)

Rochester, NY
High Max          99(1931)    100(1911)
High Low          76(1931*)   75(1911)

Watertown, NY
High Max          92(1966)    91(1966)
High Low          73(2002)    74(1973)


Average Temperatures for June 30-July 3
Buffalo
Max           79
Min           62

Rochester
Max           82
Min           62

Watertown
Max           78
Min           57

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ001>006-013-
     014.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ007-008-010>012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Hitchcock
CLIMATE...Hitchcock