Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

026
FXUS61 KBUF 291009
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
609 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms later tonight
through Tuesday.

2) Dangerous heat and humidity expected for a majority of the week,
then turning more unsettled with slowly lessening heat and humidity
for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
later tonight through Tuesday.

In advance of building ridging that will provide us with an extended
spell of heat and humidity for a majority of the week (see Key
Message 2 below)...a warm frontal boundary will slide eastward
across the area between later tonight and Tuesday. An attendant
increase in isentropic ascent/elevated instability along with the
potential for a convectively-augmented shortwave rippling southeast
along this boundary will bring an increasing potential for at least
a few scattered showers and thunderstorms from west to east
overnight and Tuesday. With the guidance suite continuing to
struggle regarding the details of the timing/placement/coverage of
this convection have capped PoPs in the chance to low likely range
for now...with the greatest probabilities currently indicated across
the eastern Finger Lakes/North Country during Tuesday...in line with
a general multimodel consensus.

While some uncertainty persists with respect to the extent of
morning pcpn/cloud cover and consequently the amount of surface-
based instability that can develop during Tuesday...given the amount
of shear that will be in place a few stronger to severe storms
cannot be ruled out...as is captured by the Marginal Risk in SPC`s
Day 2 Convective Outlook. Were these to materialize...damaging winds
and hail would be the primary risks.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous heat and humidity expected for a majority
of the week, then turning more unsettled with slowly lessening heat
and humidity for the holiday weekend.

Guidance remains in lockstep on upper level ridging building across
the eastern CONUS through Thursday...with the core of the ridge
strengthening to near 600 dm while drifting east from the Tennessee
Valley to the mid-Atlantic coastline. After that time...a series of
shortwave impulses digging southeastward across eastern Canada will
help to slowly buckle and flatten the ridge Friday through the
holiday weekend...with its core correspondingly settling
southwestward into the southern Plains/southeastern States. Under
this regime...850 mb temps will climb to around +20C by later
Tuesday afternoon...then will remain around or even a little above
+20C through at least Thursday and possibly even Friday...before
pulling back into the mid to upper teens next weekend.

At the surface...this will initially translate into highs climbing
into the mid and upper 80s today...though that`s also about how warm
it will actually feel with dewpoints mostly remaining in the
tolerable upper 50s to lower 60s. Following the warm frontal
passage...heat and humidity will then build in earnest Tuesday and
especially Wednesday and Thursday...when daytime highs away from
lake influences/the higher terrain will surge into the lower to mid
90s for many areas...with a few of our normal hot spots possibly
even reaching the upper 90s. At the same time dewpoints will climb
into the lower 70s (and possibly mid 70s in a few spots by
midweek)...supporting oppressive heat indices in the upper 90s to
lower 100s (heat advisory criteria) for much of our lower elevations
each afternoon...with some locations across the Finger Lakes and
Niagara/Orleans counties possibly even seeing these briefly approach
or reach heat warning criteria (105F) Wednesday/Thursday. At this
point...the greatest confidence in meeting heat headline criteria
lies south of Lake Ontario Tuesday through Friday...with some
potential for convection and associated cloud cover to limit temps
across eastern portions of the Finger Lakes and North Country
Tuesday...and then possibly again east of Lake Ontario at points
Wednesday-Friday. Very warm and muggy nights will also offer little
relief from the heat for those without air conditioning...and will
increase the likelihood of heat-related illness for vulnerable
populations.

Aside from the warm frontal passage tonight/Tuesday and the
potential for some additional scattered convection across the North
Country (which will lie closest to the northern periphery of the
ridge) at points Wednesday-Thursday...it should be largely dry much
of the time through Thursday. Increasingly more unsettled conditions
should then return Friday through the holiday weekend as the ridge
slowly flattens and we once again become more subject to shortwave
disturbances rippling along its northern periphery...though timing/
placing any such impulses and their related convection remains
difficult at best this far in advance. This being said...the general
increase in convective potential/associated cloud cover and slowly
declining temps aloft should gradually lessen the potential for
headline-worthy heat and humidity as we push through the
weekend...though it will still likely remain very warm and humid.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aside from some spotty IFR/MVFR valley fog across the Southern Tier
early this morning...widespread VFR conditions are expected through
this evening. An approaching warm frontal boundary will then bring a
west-to-east increase in high and mid-level cloud cover during the
second half of the upcoming night...with a low chance of showers/
thunderstorms arriving late in the night across far western New
York.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers/thunderstorms and
localized flight reductions possible...with the greatest potential
for these across the eastern Finger Lakes and North Country.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Lingering surface high pressure will keep light to modest winds and
minimal wave action across the Lower Great Lakes today. A warm front
will then pass across the region on Tuesday, with modest to moderate
southwesterlies then following for the remainder of the week.

The warm frontal passage may also bring the potential for at least a
few showers and thunderstorms later tonight and Tuesday...some of
which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR