Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

188
FXUS61 KBUF 031846
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
146 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light freezing rain will continue across the Southern Tier today,
with some snow across the Tug Hill Plateau, and just light rain
elsewhere.

2) An active pattern is expected from Thursday into early next week
with mostly rain expected. Some freezing rain will also be possible
Thursday night into early Friday morning near Lake Ontario and the
St. Lawrence Valley.

3) Temperatures will continue to warm through the late week and into
the start of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Light freezing rain will continue across the
Southern Tier today, with some snow across the Tug Hill Plateau, and
just light rain elsewhere.

A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes region through
tonight. A surface trough extends from the Ohio Valley into western
NY while a warm front is draped west to east from the Lower Ohio
River to the Mid-Atlantic region. Modest ascent, warm air advection,
and moisture will will support light precipitation across the region
through early this evening.

Surface temperatures have climbed into the mid to upper 30s across
most of the region early this afternoon, with the exception of
a few locations at or just below freezing across the western
southern Tier. A +3 deg C warm nose moving over sub-freezing
temperatures will support light freezing rain across the western
Southern Tier and a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
through 4PM today. Additional ice accumulations of a few
hundreths of an inch is expected. Sub- freezing temperatures
are also on the Tug Hill and thermal profiles show temperatures
mainly below freezing through the column and rain or wet snow is
expected across the eastern Lake Ontario region. A coating to
an inch of snow is expected across the higher terrain.
Elsewhere, light rain is expected across the region today.

Precipitation will end from west to east this evening. Surface high
pressure will build into the region tonight and Wednesday. Forecast
soundings show low-level moisture will pool across the region. Low
stratus and areas of fog are expected tonight through Wednesday
morning. Low visibility may impact the Wednesday morning
commute.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An active pattern is expected from Thursday into
early next week with mostly rain expected. Some freezing rain will
also be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning near Lake
Ontario and the St. Lawrence Valley.

A few rounds of showers will move across the area from Thursday
through Saturday night. While mainly rain is expected, some freezing
rain will be possible for the St. Lawrence Valley and for areas
along the Lake Ontario shoreline. As the area of low pressure tracks
across the area Thursday into Friday morning, the northern portion
of the precipitation where slightly colder temperatures are expected
will have the potential for freezing rain. As the sfc low tracks
away from the area and slightly colder air pushes into the region,
the precipitation may end as freezing rain. There is also a chance
that for these areas that will be just north of/near the warm front
associated with the system will have the best chance for freezing
rain overall. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the
track of the sfc low for Thursday and Friday morning.

The best chance for freezing rain is expected for areas closer to
the St. Lawrence Valley down to Watertown. This setup will have the
classic northeast flow that keeps colder sfc temperatures lingering
the longest for these areas. If the sfc low tracks a bit farther
south, resulting in cooler temperatures for these areas, then there
may be a slightly more prolonged period of freezing rain and the
potential for more of a snow onset precip type.

For the system on Thursday into early Friday, there may be enough
rain when combined with snowmelt from the warmer temperatures there
may be some hydrology issues on local stream/rivers where water
levels will be come elevated.

After a mostly dry day Friday, another sfc low will track well north
of the area, firmly putting the region in the warm sector of the
system for late Friday into Saturday. Showers will move into the
region as the warm front associated with the system tracks north and
a shortwave trough crosses at the same time. The cold front is
expected to cross the area during the late morning or early afternoon
on Saturday, bringing another batch of showers and a few
thunderstorms with it. There still remains some timing issues with
this system as well, especially the timing of the passing frontal
boundaries. There may be a period of dry warm conditions on Saturday
morning into the early afternoon from west to east, but it is highly
dependent on how quickly the warm front and showers move north
through the area before the cold front passes east.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures will continue to warm through the late
week and into the start of the weekend.

Warming will continue into the start of the weekend as ridging
increases over the eastern third of the CONUS. Temperatures on
Wednesday and Thursday are expected to warm above average for the
entire area. WAA will continue into the later portion of the week as
surface lows and warm front cross the region and as the East Coast
ridge continues to build. Temperatures will increase further on
Friday and Saturday ahead of an approaching area of low pressure and
as the warm sector for the system pushes into the region.
Temperatures by Saturday are expected to warm into the 60s to near
70.

While temperatures cool some behind a passing cold front on
Saturday, well above normal reading are expected into the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes region
through tonight. Warm air advection and modest moisture continues to
move across a warm front and light precipitation will be possible
through this evening. Near to below normal temperatures across the
western southern Tier will support freezing rain this afternoon.
Light rain is possible across the remainder of western NY, with rain
and snow showers possible east of Lake Ontario where thermal
profiles are colder. Surface high pressure will build into the
region before moving overhead Wednesday. Low level moisture will
remain across the region tonight and low clouds and areas of fog are
expected. Widespread IFR/LIFR is expected across most of the
region through daybreak.

Flight conditions will slowly improve to VFR Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Areas of IFR in fog and low stratus early, improving to
VFR.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR with showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated south winds will continue to produce choppy conditions
across the northeast end of Lake Ontario today before winds diminish
tonight.

Low pressure will pass just south of the lower Great Lakes Thursday
through early Friday. East to northeast winds will increase on Lake
Ontario as this system passes by, with a period of Small Craft
Advisory conditions likely.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ019>021.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/SW
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK