Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

356
FXUS61 KBUF 261835
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
135 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Short lived dry conditions to end the week with milder
weather Friday.

2) Turning colder Saturday night through early next week before a
more active, but milder pattern arrives the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Short lived dry conditions to end the week with
milder weather Friday.

Surface high pressure overhead today will continue to see clearing
skies headed into late this afternoon and Thursday night with any
lingering snow showers diminishing this afternoon. Afternoon
temperatures Friday will aim to be 10-15 degF warmer than Thursday.
These milder conditions will come to an end with a cold frontal
passage Saturday associated with a system passing into northern
Quebec that will also bring scattered rain showers (high elevation
snow showers) to western and north-central NY. Current hi-res
guidance suggests prefrontal showers in the morning with a cold
frontal passage in the early afternoon that will likely limit maxTs
for Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning colder Saturday night through early next week
before a more active, but milder pattern arrives the middle of next
week.

Behind the frontal passage earlier on Saturday, colder air will
continue to spread across western NY overnight into Sunday.
Additionally, a progressive shortwave passage just to the north
within the broader scale troughing pattern will help to enhance the
trailing frontal boundary aloft leading to a quick round of light
snowfall. Accumulations will be on the lighter side with latest NBM
probability of exceeding 2" of accumulation only reaching 30%. The
main focus area will be across the western Southern Tier Saturday
night into early Sunday.

Grand ensemble members have continued to trend slightly drier and
become better aligned for the start of next week with a stronger and
more expansive area of high pressure over the lower Great Lakes into
the northeast. However, this trend ensures a colder start to the
week with 850mb temps in the -15 to -20 degC range approaching the
climatological 10th percentile for early March. This cold looks to
stick around until this surface high begins to move off the coast
Tuesday with southerly low-level flow kickstarting a warming trend
for the middle of next week. This warming trend to milder conditions
for the remainder of the week will also bring an active pattern of
multiple chances for precipitation with numerous shortwave passages
ejecting out of the central CONUS. As of right now, ptype looks to
be primarily rainfall based on the track of the these systems into
the upper Great Lakes, but plenty of uncertainty still remains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overall confidence is fairly high for favorable flight conditions
through most, if not all of the 18Z TAF period. Mainly low VFR CIGS
with some isolated MVFR CIGS will erode from southwest to northeast
through the remainder of the afternoon as high pressure and
associated drier air/subsidence builds across the area from the west.

High pressure crosses over the area tonight, then slides east into
New England Friday morning with VFR flight conditions expected to
prevail through the period. Otherwise, a weakening disturbance
passing by to the north will produce some extra clouds from the
Niagara Frontier to the North Country, however as mentioned above,
any CIGS are expected to remain VFR. Some low VFR CIGS will be
possible across the North Country (KART) second half of tonight
through Friday morning.

Winds will be mainly light through much of the TAF period, before
slowly increasing through the first half of Friday.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night...Areas of IFR with light snow likely.

Sunday...Areas of MVFR with a few light snow showers possible.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
The next period of stronger winds and Small Craft Advisory
conditions will arrive Friday night and last through Saturday as
a cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Hitchcock