Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

483
FXUS61 KBUF 061815
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
115 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continuing to monitor the threat for severe thunderstorms Saturday
now as soon as the early afternoon for western NY.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will bring widespread rain showers and a few strong
thunderstorms with gusty winds to western NY Saturday.

2) Next chances for widespread precipitation across western and
north-central NY arrive Wednesday with mainly rainfall, but latest
guidance has been trending cooler.

3) There remains a low-end threat for flooding through next week,
mainly across the North Country, as a result of above average
temperatures and multiple rounds of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will bring widespread rain showers and
a few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds to western NY Saturday.

Latest GOES WV imagery shows a larger scale trough over the
central/northern plains along with a leading shortwave moving across
Lake Michigan early this afternoon. Ongoing showers and
thunderstorms currently over MI will continue to march eastward and
any remnants headed into tonight will be the first batch of
convection with this system across western NY. This will mainly
be in the form of scattered showers and possibly a few elevated
thunderstorms as a warm front lifts through the region late
tonight into Saturday morning.

A positively tilted mid-level shortwave will separate out from the
larger scale trough over the central CONUS and will continue to move
through the Great Lakes Saturday through Saturday night. An
elongated surface troughing pattern extending from the Midwest into
Quebec progressing eastward will in turn drag a strong 55-65kt
southwesterly LLJ across the forecast area. Convection will develop
earlier in the day closer to the frontal boundary in the Midwest,
accelerating eastward with a line of storms approaching western NY
Saturday afternoon. This round will be highly dependent on storm
evolution earlier in the day across OH moving northeast as well as
if any isolated cells can develop with localized diurnal heating
within pockets of clearing skies. The second round will be closer to
the cold frontal passage in the evening and will be mainly composed
of light to moderate showers as instability will be limited, but
lingering low-level moisture will remain.

SPC`s Outlook for severe weather Saturday remains largely unchanged
from the previous issuance, with a Slight Risk (2/5) extending from
Lake Erie to the Genesee Valley, and a Marginal Risk (1/5) further
east across the Finger Lakes. This system will have rather strong
dynamics/kinematics and impressive bulk shear values approaching 50
kt, though instability and convective inhibition will be limiting
factors. Around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE looks to be present out ahead of
the front across western NY with surface dew points climbing into
the mid-50s. However, a locally stable environment with high CIN is
expected downwind of Lake Erie with a stout SSW flow coming off the
icy lake. General thinking remains on track that the highest (though
likely "conditional") risk for a few storms generating locally
strong gusty winds will be from the western Southern Tier to the
western Finger Lakes region. It is worth noting that latest HREF
guidance does highlight portions of southwestern NY (Chautauqua and
Cattaraugus Co) with >50% probabilities of STP > 1. Impressive
low- level flow with gradual veering in the 0-1 km layer does
carve out hodographs with 0-1 km SRH exceeding 200 m2/s2.
Therefore, cannot rule out the chance for a tornado, especially
with any bowing segments that will end up aligning more
perpendicular to the 0-3 km shear vectors.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Next chances for widespread precipitation across
western and north-central NY arrive Wednesday with mainly rainfall,
but latest guidance has been trending cooler.

After a relatively dry period late this weekend into early next week
with day-to-day warming of above-normal temperatures for early
March, the next chance for widespread precipitation arrives for
midweek. Another progressive upper level trough will dig into the
northern plains and upper Great Lakes sending a surface low across
western NY Tuesday night into Wednesday. The main questions will be
whether or not the cutoff low over the Baja ejects out in phase with
the northern stream trough. Additionally, latest guidance has been
trending slightly cooler with a stronger surface high over eastern
Canada. This will bring some uncertainty to ptype forecasts that
were earlier more certain on primarily rainfall.


KEY MESSAGE 3...There remains a low-end threat for flooding through
next week, mainly across the North Country, as a result of above
average temperatures and multiple rounds of rain.

Above average temperatures for early/mid March along with long range
ensemble guidance and WPC forecast showing an additional 1-2.5" of
QPF across the eastern Great Lakes over the next 7 days. This
pattern will lead to rises on most area waterways with an increased
threat for flooding as the rainfall combines with accelerated
snowmelt runoff. Rises on the faster responding creeks are already
being observed with this most recent batch of rain/freezing rain,
and the slower responding waterways continue creeping up through the
weekend.

All this said, based on the limited amount of SWE and antecedent
water levels being low, the threat for flooding should be very
limited for the waterways across WNY. A handful of creeks are
forecast to crest in Action stage, though most are expected to
remain below flood stage over the weekend. The one exception will be
the Tonawanda Creek at Rapids, which looks to crest right at the 12
ft minor flood stage threshold Monday morning.

A very different story east of Lake Ontario as recent SWE surveys
have measured over 10" of liquid in the snowpack across the Tug
Hill. This could lead flooding along the Black River and other
rivers that drain the western Adirondacks and Tug Hill Plateau.
MMEFS guidance suggests water levels on the Black River should begin
to rise today and crest near the middle of next week. Still some
discrepancy in regards to maximum crest height in spots such as at
ARTN6 (Black River at Watertown), though aside from the typically
bullish NAEFS, there is only a low (25% chance or less) chance to
reach flood stage. While a slow rise to Action stage appears to be
the most likely scenario, will need to continue monitoring
trends.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS low stratus continues across the region this early
afternoon, especially south of Lake Ontario. Latest visible
satellite imagery as well as forecast soundings indicate that this
stratus should thin and lift...to at least MVFR if not VFR for sites
south of Lake Ontario through the late afternoon and evening hours.

As a warm front lifts northward across the TAF region later this
evening, ceiling bases will likely lower back to MVFR and higher
terrain IFR, with scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder...generally between 08Z and 14Z.

A LLJ, with a base around 1500 feet, will peak around 50 knots by
the second half of the night and bring LLWS to the TAF region before
surface gusts begin to increase through the daylight hours.

After a brief break in the precipitation with daytime mixing...and
perhaps flight conditions returning back to VFR, a line of showers
and thunderstorms will bear down upon WNY...with this line reaching
WNY just after 18Z. Gusty southwest winds ahead of this line of
storms will reach near 20 knots, with gusts reaching 25 to 35 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday Afternoon...Flight restrictions in showers and
thunderstorms continue into the early evening hours...ending as a
few showers. Patchy fog across the inland Southern Tier.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR becoming VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers
Tuesday.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...IFR/MVFR in another period of rain
showers and perhaps rumble of thunder.

&&

.MARINE...
Behind a departing area of high pressure, and ahead of a digging
shortwave trough southerly winds will increase tonight and
tomorrow...this ahead of a cold front. These winds, likely to reach
SCA on the eastern waters of Lake Ontario...will also direct the
higher wave heights towards the Canadian waters.

These winds will become a bit more southwesterly Saturday ahead of a
cold front...with waves increasing and possibly necessitating the
westward expansion of any SCA to include the entire Lake Ontario
waters.

The winds will veer to westerly behind the cold front Saturday
afternoon and night, with winds slowly diminishing through Sunday
morning such that waves heights will fall below small craft
thresholds.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers/PP/TMA
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas