Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

693
FXUS61 KBUF 251155
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
655 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast total snowfall amounts have increased by 1 to 2 inches
across the area and onset time is expected to be a few hours
earlier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread heavy snow expected today through tonight, with wrap
around lake enhanced snow through Monday night.

2) Lake enhancement will continue to support some additional light
accumulations Monday behind the departing snowstorm.

3) More localized moderate to heavy lake effect snow will then
develop east and southeast of Lake Ontario Monday night through
Tuesday night, with light snow east of Lake Erie.

4) Prolonged cold with lake effect snow especially downwind of Lake
Ontario Wednesday and through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread heavy snow expected today through
tonight, with wrap around lake enhanced snow through Monday night.

An expansive area of elongated surface low pressure currently draped
across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys will continue
tracking to the northeast while slowly strengthening today. Radar
imagery reveals a very impressive precipitation shield currently
stretching from eastern New Mexico/western Texas all the way
northeast to Pennsylvania, encompassing the southern Plains, entire
Southeast (except Florida), Mid Atlantic and Ohio valley regions.

As deep moisture and strong ascent continue pushing northeast
through the early morning hours and the lower levels saturate,
expect a steady light snow to move north into the Southern Tier
before daybreak, then spread north across areas south of Lake
Ontario by mid morning...then lastly into the eastern Lake Ontario
region late morning/midday. Expect the heavier snow to begin a few
hours after onset. The bulk of the heaviest snow will fall from late
this morning through tonight across the area, with moderate lake
enhanced snow continuing across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie
through the day Monday, and along the southern Lake Ontario shore
and southeast of Lake Ontario through Monday night...especially from
Monroe County east to Oswego County.

When all is said and done, expect total snowfall amounts ranging
from 9 to 18 inches. The highest amounts will be across the higher
terrain of the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region...as
well as the southern Lake Ontario shoreline and southeast of Lake
Ontario owed to lake enhancement.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Lake enhancement will continue to support some
additional light accumulations Monday behind the departing snowstorm.

The bulk of the significant snowstorm will already be over before
daybreak Monday, with lesser intensity wrap around snow and lake
enhancement lingering through the day.

The secondary coastal low will be just southeast of Cape Cod early
Monday morning, and will continue to move northeast across the Gulf
of Maine. A mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes
Monday and combine with wrap around moisture from the departing low
to produce occasional light snow across the region. There will be
some embedded lake enhancement as well along the south shore of Lake
Ontario, with some upslope enhancement across the higher terrain
east of Lake Erie. Some Lake Huron lake effect may also reach the
Niagara Frontier at times later Monday afternoon and evening.

Additional snow accumulations Monday will be minor, generally just 1
to 2 inches in most areas, with some spotty 3 inch amounts in lake
enhancement areas. Northwest winds will increase some in the
afternoon with gusts in the 20-30 mph range, producing some limited
blowing and drifting in open areas.

KEY MESSAGE 3...More localized moderate to heavy lake effect snow
will then develop east and southeast of Lake Ontario Monday night
through Tuesday night, with light snow east of Lake Erie.

Any lingering wrap around light snow will end Monday evening, giving
way to more localized bands of lake effect snow. Lake induced
equilibrium levels will rise to near 10K feet by Monday evening as a
fresh pool of cold air aloft crosses the eastern Great Lakes.
Inversion heights will fall overnight through Tuesday morning, only
to rise again to near 10K feet by Tuesday evening as another
clipper crosses the eastern Great Lakes and brings a fresh batch of
cold air and synoptic scale ascent/moisture.

Off Lake Ontario...

Multiple bands of light lake effect snow southeast of the lake in
the evening in a northwest flow regime will consolidate into a more
concentrated band later Monday evening across Wayne and northern
Cayuga counties, with backing boundary layer flow forcing this band
to move steadily east into Oswego County overnight. Boundary layer
flow continues to back to the WSW through Tuesday morning, carrying
the band rapidly north and east across the Tug Hill region to
Jefferson County by mid to late morning Tuesday.

Snowfall rates should become quite heavy later Monday night through
Tuesday morning in this band, but the very rapid movement will limit
accumulations to the 2-4" range as it races northeast across the
region.

Lesser intensity lake effect snow will continue across Jefferson
County Tuesday, then a clipper shortwave will force boundary layer
flow to veer to the west and eventually WNW Tuesday night, with an
intensifying band of lake effect snow moving south across the
eastern Lake Ontario region and ending up southeast of the lake by
Wednesday morning. Additional moderate accumulations are likely
through this period, but again the fairly rapid band movement may
prevent any truly heavy accumulations in any one location.

Off Lake Erie...

Lake Erie is now extensively ice covered, however a recent look on
visible satellite imagery from January 23rd shows the ice east of
Long Point is still thin and slushy, and not fast ice. This should
still allow for a good amount of sensible heat flux, and support
some limited lake response.

WNW flow Monday evening will support lake enhanced upslope snow
showers across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier.
Boundary layer flow will then back to the SW late Monday night and
Tuesday ahead of the approaching clipper, carrying light lake effect
snow showers north towards Buffalo.

The passing clipper will introduce more synoptic scale ascent and
moisture Tuesday through Tuesday evening, which should help the ice
limited lake response off Lake Erie. Southwest flow will continue to
bring lake enhancement to the Buffalo/Batavia corridor much of the
day, with the lake enhanced snow then settling back south into the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier Tuesday night as
boundary layer flow veers to the WNW following the clipper.

Forecast confidence is low for snow accumulations off Lake Erie
given the uncertainty with how ice will continue to expand and
thicken over the next few days. There is the potential for a few
inches of accumulation from Buffalo southward Tuesday through
Tuesday night if enough area of thin/slushy ice remains in the
eastern basin of the lake.

It will become quite windy Tuesday as the clipper moves through the
eastern Great Lakes, with gusts in the 25-35+ mph range, highest
northeast of Lake Erie. This will bring increasing blowing and
drifting snow with the deep, fresh snowpack in place.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Prolonged cold with lake effect snow especially
downwind of Lake Ontario Wednesday and through the end of the week.

A -2SD 500 hPa trough will drop across the Great Lakes and mid-
Atlantic region this period, maintaining well below normal
temperatures through the end of the week. Maximum temperatures
forecasted in the teens for highs the second half of the week, may
match the beginning half of the week...and for what it worth the
last time we had a weeks worth of maximum temperatures in the teens
or colder was the winter of 2017-18 (late December into early
January).

Single digit to below zero minimum temperatures this period, that
with a light wind may produce a night or two with cold weather
advisory conditions met.

Ambient moisture will remain plentiful within this deep trough, with
several shortwaves rippling through the mean flow oscillating a band
of lake effect snow off Lake Ontario. Upstream lake connections,
frictional convergence and upslope flow may bring lighter lake
effect snow showers off Lake Erie this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Light snow rapidly expanding northward across the area just before
daybreak with MVFR/IFR conditions at most terminals south of Lake
Ontario. Expect these conditions to continue to gradually worsen to
LIFR/VLIFR through the morning hours as snow will become moderate to
at times heavy within a few hours after onset. Although a bit
delayed, these conditions are expected to reach the North Country by
late morning/early afternoon. After onset, these conditions will
last through the bulk of the TAF period with some improvement to
LIFR/IFR possible this evening, with more in the way of mainly
IFR/possible areas MVFR overnight as steadier synoptic snow slowly
tapers off. However, areas of lake enhanced snow south and southeast
of the lakes may keep those areas IFR through the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Monday...IFR/LIFR in widespread moderate to heavy snow, diminishing
later in the day.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Localized lake effect snow and IFR southeast
of Lake Ontario.

Thursday...Chance of snow, locally heavier near the Lakes. IFR or
below is possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterlies will start to freshen later this morning on Lake Ontario
as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure departing to
the northeast and strengthening low pressure approaching from the
southwest. These easterlies will remain elevated through tonight
before backing to the north  and weakening late tonight into Monday
morning as low pressure pulls northeast off the New England coast. A
Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the western half of Lake
Ontario from later this morning through mid morning Monday.

Following a brief lull in the winds first half of Monday, winds will
freshen on both lakes Monday afternoon and remain elevated, with
small craft conditions possible through at least mid week on both
lakes, possibly persisting over Lake Ontario for much of the
upcoming week. Of note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore
waters are now ice covered.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Buffalo
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 25                         -14 (1884)                         5 (1884)

Rochester
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 25                         -6  (1945)                         7 (1884)

Watertown
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 25                         -18 (2007)                         3 (1992)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ001-002-010-
     011.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ003>008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ012>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
         Monday for LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JM/Thomas
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
CLIMATE...HSK