Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

449
FXUS61 KBUF 111727
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
127 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe weather risk continuing to lower for Friday for much of
western New York and the Finger Lakes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures and high humidity today and Friday.
Warmest heat index values reaching the mid 90s and allowing for an
increased risk in heat related illnesses.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Friday
evening. A few storms may become severe this afternoon,
especially across the western Southern Tier.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures and high humidity today
and Friday. Warmest heat index values reaching the mid 90s and
allowing for an increased risk in heat related illnesses.

A mid-level ridge will continue to amplify across New York state
today before exiting east into New England Friday; supporting heat
and humidity to increase across the region. 850mb temperatures will
surge into the upper positive teens Celsius, supporting surface
temperatures to climb well into the 80s, and low 90s (especially
across the inland locations of the Genesee Valley. The combination
of this heat and humidity will translate to heat index values to
surge into the mid 90s today and therefor support Heat Advisory
conditions for portions of the Finger Lakes and counties lining the
southern shore of Lake Ontario.

Heat and humidity will continue into Friday, however due to the
exiting mid-level ridge axis, and approaching surface trough and
associated cold front, heat will be limited to the eastern portions
of the area and therefore confidence in Heat Advisory criteria
continues to lower.

In the wake of the aforementioned frontal passage Friday, cooler and
more comfortable weather are expected regionwide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Friday evening. A few storms may become severe this afternoon,
especially across the western Southern Tier.

A soupy warm airmass continues to remain overhead this afternoon, as
PWAT values from the 12Z sounding are 1.75 inches. Remnants from
last night`s MCV/Derecho in the Midwest combined with diurnal
instability this afternoon currently passing and building across
Lake Erie and northwestern Pennsylvania as of 17Z. This activity
will continue to progress northeast and then east across the CWA
this afternoon. Stronger thunderstorms may become severe, especially
across the western Southern Tier where a Thunderstorm Watch is
already in effect through 8PM this evening. The main impacts of any
stronger/severe thunderstorm will be torrential downpours, damaging
winds and large hail.

A trough across the upper Great Lakes this afternoon, will continue
to deepen and push east into eastern Great Lakes Friday, where its
resultant cold front will slide east across the region. Ahead of the
front, the heat and humidity, an unstable airmass in addition to an
increasing wind field will support the potential for strong/severe
thunderstorms with the primary . Due to the quicker nature of the
front`s arrival, the best coverage of severe thunderstorms will be
limited to the eastern reaches of the CWA. Otherwise, with PWAT
values of 1.5 inches across the area will continue to support
torrential downpours.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The moist airmass over the region will continue through Friday ahead
of a cold front crossing the area. Within this moist airmass,
scattered showers and thunderstorms that cross the terminals will
have the potential to cause lower VSBYs within downpours. CIGs will
also vary depending on location of showers/storms and elevation
across the area. Flight categories through mid afternoon on Friday
with any lowering due to brief heavy rain to IFR are possible and
brief LIFR can`t be ruled out, especially over the higher terrain.

The best chance for showers/storms today is expected for this
afternoon into the early evening mainly for areas south of Lake
Ontario, and especially south of I90. A few scattered showers will
be possible later this evening, but should be limited in coverage
and intensity. Outside of any showers/storms flight conditions will
remain mostly VFR, with some MVFR CIGs possible over the higher
terrain. West to southwest winds will continue to gust to the 20 to
25 knot range, with the strongest gusts expected for areas northeast
of Lake Erie.

Tonight, mainly VFR flight conditions are expected to continue, but
lowering CIGs to MVFR will be possible starting a few hours before
daybreak on Friday morning, especially over the higher terrain,
where some IFR levels are possible. A few scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms can`t be ruled out tonight, especially closer
to daybreak.

Friday, CIGs will lower to MVFR and IFR as a pre frontal trough and
the cold front cross the area. Showers and thunderstorms will move
into the area and expand some in coverage. Shower and storm
potential will increase from west to east. Earlier timing of the
cold frontal passage will reduce the instability available for
showers/storms to develop for the western areas. This will lead to
better timing for eastern portions of the area to have increased
daytime heating ahead of the front. Further reductions to CIGs and
VSBY will be possible within showers/storms that drop heavier rain
at times during the day on Friday. CIGs are expected to improve
during the mid to late afternoon hours behind the passing cold front
to VFR.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though there is a slight chance for a few
showers.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, MVFR possible within a few showers/storms
that may move across the area

&&

.MARINE...
10 to 15 knot winds out of the west to southwest will cause choppy
conditions through Friday, but waves are expected to remain below 3
feet. Some weakening of the winds and lowering of waves can be
expected overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

Winds will increase some briefly ahead of an with a passing cold
front on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible
through Friday until the cold front crosses the region. The best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be this afternoon and
early evening, and then again on Friday ahead of the passing cold
front. Friday showers and storm potential will increase from west to
east.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>005-013-
     014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW