Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

059
FXUS61 KBUF 122344
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
744 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity expected Tuesday, with heat
indices over 100 degrees possible. Slightly less hot Monday and
Wednesday with peak heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Dangerous heat and humidity expected Tuesday,
with heat indices over 100 degrees possible. Slightly less hot
Monday and Wednesday with peak heat indices in the low to mid
90s.

Large dome of high pressure will expand east across much of the
central CONUS Monday, where its center will strengthen to an
impressive 600dam over the upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes. The
eastern periphery of this large ridge will then expand east into the
central and lower Great Lakes region Tuesday.

In response, surface temperatures will rise above average Monday,
however humidity levels will remain in check. This should keep heat
indices mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s. Tuesday will be the
hottest day with 850mb temps trending even a bit warmer with the
latest guidance, rising into the the 22C-24C range (99th percentile
for mid July), with the highest values across western NY. This will
support highs in the low to mid 90s. When combined with rising
humidity levels, heat index values are expected to range from the
mid 90s to low 100s across the lake plains, Genesee Valley, and
Finger Lakes region, and low to mid 90s elsewhere.

A fairly stout 30-40 knot LL jet will be located just 1-2 kft off
the deck Tuesday afternoon, allowing a good portion of those
stronger winds aloft to mix to the surface. When combined with a
tightening pressure gradient, expect to see frequent WSW to SW`erly
gusts in the 25-35 mph range, with gusts to 40 mph possible
northeast of Lake Erie and east through northeast of Lake Ontario.
This will at least provide some natural relief to the heat,
especially across those areas downwind of the lakes.

Hot and humid conditions will remain for at least the first half of
Wednesday, before an approaching mid level trough and surface cold
front drop south out of eastern Canada and usher in cooler and drier
air. High temps will still reach the upper 80s to low 90s by early
Wednesday afternoon across the south shore of Lake Ontario over to
the Finger Lakes, but dropping humidity levels will keep heat
indices from climbing past the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at all sites throughout the period
with extremely high confidence. Light NNE winds this evening
will go calm and turn light SW on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers or a thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds with waves generally one foot or less today through
Monday.

SW winds increase Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front, with a
period of SCA conditions possible from Tuesday afternoon through
early Wednesday morning, with the higher winds and waves
expected on Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/SGK
AVIATION...Fries
MARINE...JM/SGK