Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

991
FXUS61 KBUF 020037
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
737 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures have trended slightly warmer during and around
this weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Brief cold period through Monday.

2) Multiple shortwave troughs and associated surface lows will bring
more active weather starting Tuesday...with some hydro concerns
possible by late in the week.

3) A warming trend will take place this week with well above
normal temperatures by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Brief cold period through Monday.

A cold airmass will settle upon our region behind a cold front, with
temperatures at 850 hPa lowering to -14C near the state line, to -
20C across the North Country. For Buffalo an 850 hPa temperature of -
16 would be in the lower 10 percent for all soundings taken in the
first week of March.

High pressure passing over the region tonight will provide for light
winds, and with a clear sky outside of any lingering lake clouds
excellent radiational cooling conditions will promote single digit
lows across WNY, and into the minus 10 to minus 15 range east of
Lake Ontario. A few traditionally colder spots of the Southern Tier
may also dip below zero tonight.

A cold start to the day Monday, but a developing light southeasterly
flow should help temperature values to increase back 5 to 10 degrees
higher than their previous day maximum.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Multiple shortwave troughs and associated surface
lows will bring more active weather starting Tuesday...with some
hydro concerns possible by late in the week.

A warm southerly flow Tuesday ahead of the first shortwave trough
will leave rain the predominate p-type for WNY, though a wintry mix
(including freezing rain) may occur for several hours at
precipitation onset, while shallower warmth east of Lake Ontario
will promote more of snow for the Tug Hill and a wintry mix across
lower elevations. Any wet snow accumulation Tuesday and Tuesday
night on the Tug Hill will likely be an inch or two.

Additional waves of low pressure Wednesday and through the end of
the week will primarily favor plain rain as the precipitation type.
Though precipitation chances remain every day, the current
progression of frontal boundaries may end up favoring rain occurring
during the overnight hours as opposed to the daylight hours for
several of the upcoming days this week.

Models continue to have variances with the timing of these
shortwaves and where eventual warm fronts/periods of isentropic lift
rain occur, but there is great agreement in an active and wet period
mid week through Saturday...if not Sunday.

A stronger cold front Saturday, with a 100 or so J/KG of elevated
instability and strong low level flow ahead of the cold front may
bring a rumble of thunder to our region.

NBM 72-hour precipitation probabilities continue to have a 50 to 70
percent chance for at least an inch of precipitation (primarily in
the form of rain) for much of WNY outside of the Genesee Valley 12Z
Tuesday - 12Z Friday. Additional rain is expected Friday and
through the beginning of next weekend.

Area creeks and rivers will likely contain this rain and snowmelt
through Thursday. However, by Friday and into the start of next
weekend river forecast model ensembles of the GEFS and NAEFS suggest
many area creeks and streams to have decent chance to reach action
levels, with several potentially reaching flood stage by the end of
next weekend.

The recent GEFS ensembles have increased the QPF to around 1.5 to
2.0 inches for our region...now similar to the NAEFS ensembles. This
QPF for the ensembles does seem plausible considering the synoptic
pattern with multiple waves (opportunities) for rain starting
Tuesday.

If such a scenario unfolds, and given the still ample amount
of water (1-2") held in the snowpack of the headwaters of the
Buffalo Creeks and much more SWE for the Black River basin of the
North Country we could see the Buffalo area Creeks/Tonawanda River
as well as the Black River in the North Country have creek and river
level rises to above bankfull. That said, there is still plenty of
uncertainty to how much rain will fall with the axis of heavier
rainfall for the week possibly remaining just to our west and south.

Any lingering creeks and streams will be at risk for ice jams as
well for the North Country with temperatures warming through the
late week and into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A warming trend will take place this week with
well above normal temperatures by the weekend.

The longwave pattern across the continent will evolve throughout the
week to become increasingly favorable for early (meteorological)
spring warmth. Strong Arctic high pressure and weak upper level
troughing across the Northeast bringing us the cold start to the
week will translate off the coast Monday night, causing a southerly
return flow to develop and a quick recovery back to above average
temperatures by Tuesday. A ridging pattern out west will then shift
eastward as Pacific-based troughing moves inland, with slow height
rises gradually translating downstream. This may briefly get
disrupted by passing shortwaves, though by the end of the week, the
building ridge will phase with another area of high pressure off the
Southeast coast and amplify. This will likely causing a more
noticeable jump in temperatures, especially in the Friday/Saturday
timeframe when NBM probabilities of max temps >60F peak around 60-
80% for many areas south of Lake Ontario.

It should also be noted that this eastern/offshore ridging pattern
could have a bit of staying power beyond the 7-day forecast, as
CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks both strongly favor above normal
temperatures for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aside from some lingering patchy areas of MVFR/low-end VFR decks
southeast of Lake Ontario from east of KROC to around KFZY this
evening, drier air and subsidence associated with strong high
pressure building in from the west will provide widespread VFR
flight conditions tonight, and through the day Monday as the center
of the high passes right over our region. Winds will be light.

Outlook...

Monday night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR with rain becoming likely
from southwest to northeast. Some snow or wintry mix possible at the
start. Precipitation may stay mainly snow or wintry mix across the
North Country.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the day. Rain likely with MVFR/IFR
flight conditions returning Wednesday night.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain likely.

Friday...MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated north to northwest winds will continue to produce very
choppy conditions through late this evening along the south shore of
Lake Ontario, but remain just below SCA criteria. Surface pressure
gradient will then begin to weaken as strong high pressure builds
over the lower Great Lakes from the west second half of tonight
through Monday, with subsiding winds and waves.

South winds will increase on the eastern half of Lake Ontario Monday
night through Tuesday as the high drifts off the New England coast
and low pressure approaches from the west. This will produce another
period of choppy conditions across the eastern half of the lake,
however a mainly S to SSE offshore flow will keep the higher waves
over the open lake and Canadian waters.

Winds are then expected to be mainly light with low wave action from
later Tuesday through Wednesday.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PP/Thomas
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Hitchcock/JM