Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

284
FXUS61 KBUF 101029
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
629 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler but mainly dry today, some patchy frost possible tonight.

2) Cool but relatively dry weather Monday through Tuesday with
widespread frost Monday night.

3) Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week with periods
of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler but mainly dry today, some patchy frost
possible tonight.

A few showers will be possible as the cold front continues to drift
off to our east this morning. After that...we should see mainly dry
weather today. Otherwise...it will be cooler with temperatures
peaking in the 50s, maybe a few spots hit 60F this afternoon.

Tonight...we should see mainly clear skies with see decent
radiational cooling resulting in lows in the 30s inland away from
the lakes. With light winds we may see some patch frost, especially
in the colder Southern Tier valleys and east of Lake Ontario (Lewis
County).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool but relatively dry weather Monday through
Tuesday with widespread frost Monday night.

A mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday
afternoon and evening, bringing a period of large scale ascent.
Despite the increase in forcing, deep moisture will be lacking with
just a shallow layer of low level moisture available. The best
chance of a few showers will be across the Saint Lawrence Valley and
northern NY where the strongest forcing will be found. Elsewhere,
expect mainly dry conditions with just a slight chance of a passing
light shower.

Surface high pressure will drift east across the Great Lakes Monday
night, settling overhead by Tuesday morning. Clearing skies and
diminishing winds in a cool airmass will allow for strong
radiational cooling. Lows will drop into the low to mid 30s
areawide, with some upper 20s likely in the colder Southern Tier
Valleys and Tug Hill region. This will bring widespread frost and
freeze conditions Monday night through Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week
with periods of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.

A mid level trough over the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night will
advance slowly east to the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night, then
to the eastern seaboard Thursday night where it will evolve into a
mid level closed low. A surface low will take a similar track,
crossing the eastern Great Lakes late Wednesday through early
Thursday.

A wing of warm advection and moisture transport will arrive ahead of
the system from west to east Tuesday night, with rain spreading into
the region. The slow moving mid level trough will continue to bring
ascent and deep moisture, supporting periods of rain Wednesday
through much of Thursday. Model guidance is in good agreement on the
overall timing and placement of rain Wednesday through Thursday, but
there is still considerable spread on rainfall amounts. Even the
higher end of the ensemble envelope would not produce enough
rainfall for any flooding, so while it will be unsettled, the rain
will not be too impactful.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the cold front exits off to our east any MVFR-IFR cigs will
improve to VFR for the remainder of the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with showers and a few thunderstorms.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR improving to MVFR/VFR with showers ending
through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated winds behind the front will produce choppy conditions on
area lakes today, with small craft conditions on the east end of
Lake Ontario. Lighter winds and wave action expected Monday and
lasts through Tuesday. The next chance of Small Craft conditions
possible by Wednesday as low pressure sends a cold front towards the
region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
         evening for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/Hitchcock
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR