Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

469
FXUS61 KBUF 091117
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
617 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High wind warning now in effect for Chautauqua and southern Erie
counties through 10 pm this evening.

High wind warning in effect for northern Erie, Niagara, Orleans,
Genesee, Wyoming and Monroe counties through 10 pm.

Wind advisory now in effect for Jefferson and Lewis counties through
10 pm this evening.

Wind advisory in effect for Cattaraugus, Allegany, Livingston,
Ontario, Wayne, northern Cayuga and Oswego counties through 10 pm
this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Southeast to southerly downslope gusty winds this morning, to be
followed by a brief window, but of very strong southwest wind gusts,
this afternoon and evening region-wide.

2) Snowmelt due to unseasonably mild temperatures and rain will
result in increased runoff through this weekend...though with very
low chances for any river/creek or ice jam flooding.

3) Another period of strong...potentially advisory-worthy winds
remains possible across much of the area later Saturday night and
Sunday.

4) It will turn colder Sunday...with a round of accumulating lake
effect snow expected downwind of the eastern Great Lakes Sunday and
Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Southeast to southerly downslope gusty winds this
morning, to be followed by a brief window, but of very strong
southwest wind gusts, this afternoon and evening region-wide.

This early morning a surface low lies near Lake Michigan, with a
cold front slicing across the western Midwest. IR satellite imagery
displays a well defined dry slot along and ahead of this cold front.
Meanwhile, regional radars display a swath of showers, and even some
embedded thunder across MI and down through the southern Ohio
Valley. Mainly virga is found along an elevated warm front over our
region this early morning.

For today upstream rain showers will reach WNY around
daybreak...with activity passing eastward through the remainder of
the morning. Behind these showers expect some clearing as noted
upstream, especially across the Niagara Frontier.

Southeast winds ahead of this low have already reached greater than
50 mph off the Chautauqua Ridge this early morning, and expect these
gusts to continue through the morning...in addition to southeast
downslope flow off the Tug Hill. Model soundings display 60 knots of
flow at the top of the inversion, allowing south to southeast winds
to accelerate to the lee of the Chautauqua Ridge...and soon to the
lee of the Tug Hill. By daybreak, and ahead of these rain showers
southerly winds will increase over the hill tops of the Wyoming
Hills and Finger Lakes region...with a southerly downslope flow
gusting towards the New York State Thruway.

Rain showers will offer brief stabilization of the boundary layer
through the midday hours, such that even with a strong flow of 50 to
60 knots aloft...wind gusts will be highly variable.

Partial clearing behind the line of showers along with strengthening
of the LLJ to near 80 knots will allow for southwest winds to
rapidly increase through the afternoon hours near Lake Erie and
downwind across the Lake Plain. Though the surface low will be
slightly filling as it passes to our north across Ontario Canada,
there will be strong isallobaric pressure rises of near 10 mb this
afternoon and early evening across WNY. This combined with strong
cold air advection and deepening mixing from sunshine ahead of the
cold front will allow for winds to gust to 60 mph, as such a high
wind warning is now in place for counties near and downwind of Lake
Erie.

Timing of the peak wind gusts off Lake Erie will likely be in a 3 pm
to 7 pm window. Strongest gusts may not be along the shoreline
(where a stable boundary layer will reside from the cold lake
waters) but farther inland where downslope winds off a dome of cold
air (enhanced by inland warming that may reach 60F) may bring peak
wind gusts near the airport out towards Batavia.

Though the jet will not be as strong farther inland...and east of
Lake Ontario (which will lie farther from the surface low and with
slightly less isallobaric pressure rises) southwest winds gusting to
advisory levels are anticipated. Will issue a wind advisory for
remaining counties...with the stronger gusts remaining east of Lake
Ontario into the mid-evening hours.

Models depict the core of the LLJ shifting north and eastward this
evening allowing for wind gusts to begin to subside. As such will
run all wind headlines through 10 pm.

Otherwise these southerly winds will promote well above normal
temperatures, that could reach 60F across the inland northern
Niagara Frontier and Lake Plain. Expect a sharp decrease in
temperatures this late afternoon and evening with the frontal
passage (that may have little rain shower activity) and strong cold
air advection which will send temperatures down to near the freezing
mark tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Snowmelt due to unseasonably mild temperatures and
rain will result in increased runoff through this weekend...though
with very low chances for any river/creek or ice jam flooding.

An initial low pressure system passing by to our northwest will
bring rain showers to our region today...with a second low pressure
system then moving northeast from the Ohio Valley and bringing
another round of widespread rain later Saturday into Saturday night.
While overall rainfall amounts from each system will not be
particularly significant (for the most part, a quarter to a half
inch out of each)...the combination of this rainfall and snowmelt
due to continued mild temperatures through Saturday will result in
increased runoff.

While this will result in elevated streamflow in area rivers and
creeks...MMEFS data suggests that only a few of the Buffalo area
creeks may reach action stage...with very little risk of reaching
minor flood stage.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Another period of strong...potentially advisory-
worthy winds remains possible across much of the area later Saturday
night and Sunday.

As the second low pressure system slowly deepens and passes by to
our north/northwest Saturday night...it will pivot its trailing cold
front eastward and across our region. The ensuing cold air advection
regime will then support effective downward transport of higher
momentum air from aloft down to the surface later Saturday night and
Sunday...thereby resulting in another round of windy conditions
during this time frame.

At this juncture...some model differences still persist with respect
to the track/strength of the low and the corresponding strength of
the low level jet within the cold advection regime...with the
stronger guidance continuing to suggest the potential for a round of
advisory-worthy winds sometime between later Saturday night and
Sunday. Were this to come to fruition...the greatest potential for
these would lie across the typical areas ENE of the lakes later
Saturday night into Sunday...with some potential for advisory-type
gusts then extending a bit further inland/along the ESE shore of
Lake Ontario for a time later Sunday/early Sunday evening as winds
veer more westerly or even west-northwesterly. Given the model
differences and resulting uncertainty...for now have continued to
indicate fairly widespread wind gusts of 30-40 knots during this
period...with the greatest values found across the lake plains.

KEY MESSAGE 4...It will turn colder Sunday...with a round of
accumulating lake effect snow expected downwind of the eastern Great
Lakes Sunday and Sunday night.

In the wake of Saturday night`s cold front...steady cold air
advection will result in 850 mb temps falling to -8C to -10C by the
start of Sunday morning...then into the -11C to -14C range during
the day Sunday. In the presence of a swath of deeper wraparound
moisture pivoting eastward across the area...this will allow for a
period of accumulating lake enhanced/lake effect snow downwind of
the lakes...particularly from Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening
when synoptic moisture will be most favorable.

Initially...a general WSW flow may allow weak lake snows to first
develop across the Buffalo/Watertown areas by later Sunday
morning...with the snows then shifting south to areas east and east-
southeast of the lakes and gaining some strength Sunday afternoon
and evening as winds slowly veer and the aforementioned deeper
moisture arrives. The bulk of the accumulations should tend to focus
across areas east and east-southeast of the lakes owing to the
timing of the deeper moisture and an added boost from upslope
flow...though the expected movement of the lake bands may tend to
keep accumulations on the moderate side. The lake snows will then
wind down fairly quickly from west to east later Sunday night and
Monday morning as high pressure and much drier air build across the
region...with just a few remnant flurries/snow showers then lifting
back northward during Monday as winds back again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS VFR flight conditions start the period. Aloft
a strengthening LLJ to near 60 knots at 2K feet this morning
will bring LLWS to all TAF sites through the morning hours,
until surface winds sufficiently increase through the afternoon
hours.

Ahead of a cold front an area of rain showers will pass
across the TAF region across the western TAF sites at package
start, and activity mainly passing through and exiting to the
east by 18-20Z. Variable gusty winds with this activity as
though a strong LLJ aloft, shallow stabilization of the
atmosphere may bring a period of weaker gusts.

Winds will rapidly increase with a cold front passage this late
afternoon and evening. Aiding in stronger gusts will be a
strengthening LLJ to near 80 knots over WNY, along with some
clearing.

Cold front will pass through the region with just scattered rain
showers, but lowering of ceiling heights to MVFR. Could see some IFR
ceiling heights across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier
tonight (KJHW) before drier air builds in with a return to VFR
flight conditions late tonight from the north.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR deteriorating to IFR/MVFR in rain later in the
day, mixing with and changing to snow at night.

Sunday...MVFR/local IFR in snow showers, especially east of the
lakes. Windy with southwesterly/westerly gusts to 40 knots possible.

Monday...A couple leftover snow showers possible east of the
lakes...otherwise mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Rain or snow showers. Mainly VFR, however IFR is possible
in snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast winds this early morning over Lake Erie and the eastern
half of Lake Ontario will reach small craft thresholds...and as
winds veer to southerly along the entire southern Lake Ontario
shoreline, for which Small Craft Advisories have been issued as
outlined below. The highest waves will remain over Canadian waters.

South to southwesterly flow will strengthen along and behind a cold
front later this afternoon, bringing a brief period of Gale force
winds on both lakes this afternoon and evening. Though the window
for gales is small, have upgrade the watch to a gale warning for
both Lakes, while also issuing a small craft advisory for the
Niagara River today and this evening.

There will be a brief lull second half of Friday night into Saturday
before winds increase from the east with a second storm system for
the remainder of the weekend. This will bring greater wave action
along the western Lake Ontario waters Saturday and Saturday evening.
Winds become southwesterly Sunday, potentially again to near gale
force. Elevated southwest to westerly flow Monday and through
mid-week will maintain small craft conditions on the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ001>003-
     010>012.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ004>006-013-
     014-020-021.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ007-008.
     High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this
         evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
         LOZ042>045.
         Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this
         evening for LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR/Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas