Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

878
FXUS61 KBUF 231753
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Some patchy river valley fog possible tonight across the Southern
Tier and Black River Valley. Otherwise...dry weather through
Wednesday.

2) Unsettled weather returns Thursday, with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some patchy river valley fog possible tonight across
the Southern Tier and Black River Valley. Otherwise...dry weather
through Wednesday.

Limited lingering moisture and daytime heating will aid in some
measure of a fair weather CU to be found across the area this
afternoon. There will be some lingering marine stratus and fog that
will continue to impact the south shore of Lake Ontario from N.
Cayuga to Jefferson county, this should dissipate with time this
afternoon.

Otherwise...we should see plenty of sunshine for most areas and dry
weather with highs in the low to mid 70s.

Tonight...with the loss of daytime heating clear skies will resume.
Some limited fog will be possible but mainly in the river valleys of
the Southern Tier and Black River Valley.

Another glorious day is anticipated Wednesday with high pressure
over the region. Temps Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns Thursday, with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The next chance at precipitation will come as a shortwave drops E-
ESE through the broader trough across the upper Great Lakes. This
will set the stage for increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the area on Thursday. That said...the overall
evolution of the convection at this point is less than certain.
Guidance shows a leading shortwave just ahead of the stronger
shortwave advancing across the upper Great Lakes.
Additionally...there is an ill-defined warm frontal segment
advertised over the area Thursday morning, which could keep much of
the area enshrouded in cloud cover with some showers across the
region. After that...the question will be what measure of
instability will be able to build in the afternoon through the eve
hours. At the moment...12Z packages show > 1500 J/kg well inland
from the stabilizing influence of the lakes. That would suggest we
will see some convection in the afternoon which could have the
potential to become severe.

With the passage of the front Thursday eve we should see coverage of
showers and storms diminish from west to east overnight. Overall
drier weather is expected Friday but still cant` rule out a few
showers. Plus the front slows it southward progression and then
stall out near the Mid-Alantic region. Given its close proximity and
uncertainty in its placement have low chance PoPs through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Diurnal CU will erode by early evening inland from the lakes, then
SKC through tonight. The exception will be the possibility for
Southern Tier and Black River valley fog formation after 06Z
tonight, which may produce localized MVFR/IFR in those areas.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday and Friday...VFR most of the time, but brief/local
restrictions possible with a few showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Some marine stratus and fog (limited visibilities) will be found on
the eastern end of Lake Ontario this afternoon which should mix out
by this eve. Otherwise...light winds and minimal wave action
expected on area lakes through Wednesday.

Winds and waves pick-up a bit Thursday ahead of an approaching cold
front which may produce some chop on area lakes but still below SCA
levels. Additionally...there will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, of which may produce localized higher winds and waves.

Winds and waves will remain below SCA levels Friday and into the
weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...AR