Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

762
FXUS61 KBUF 230711
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
311 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall amounts lowered through this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms at times for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms at times for Thursday
through Saturday.

A warm front will track north into the area on Thursday, bringing
the potential for showers and thunderstorms along with it. Current
placement of the front drapes it over the BUF forecast area from
west to east as its associated sfc low tracks along the boundary.
With this scenario the area will have better potential for showers
for the entire day on Thursday. If the warm front pushes farther
north, then there will be increased potential for a break in the
showers. South of the warm front, further into the warm sector of
the system, increased instability will provide a better chance for
thunderstorms. A shortwave trough tracking across the WNY area on
Thursday afternoon will also provide for additional forcing and the
better potential for thunderstorms overall. Guidance tracks the sfc
low across Lake Ontario and the systems cold front will cross the
area Thursday evening/overnight. There is still timing uncertainty
among guidance. Showers/storms should push out of the area behind
the passing front.

For Friday, a passing shortwave trough during peak heating will
bring the potential for another batch of showers and thunderstorms
across most of the area.

Latest guidance is still uncertain on the shower/storm potential for
Saturday, but some guidance does bring at least a few showers/storms
into the southern portions of the area. Potential for showers/storms
will be heavily dependent on placement of a shortwave trough
tracking nearby, with some guidance tracking it farther south away
from the area, resulting in lower potential for showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will move east into southern New England early this
morning. Rain showers have moved out of the area, but northerly
upslope flow and an abundance of lingering low level moisture will
allow for low stratus to persist overnight, with widespread IFR/MVFR
CIGS remaining intact through early to mid morning. There may be
some patchy drizzle, but more likely fog persisting through within a
couple of hours after daybreak, producing areas of MVFR/IFR
VSBY...with LIFR persisting across the higher terrain south of the
NYS Thruway where the low stratus will intersect terrain with
hilltop fog.

The fog and low stratus may persist in some areas through early to
mid morning. High pressure will then build across the Great Lakes,
with subsidence and drying arriving from northwest to southeast.
This will allow for quick northwest to southeast improvement back to
VFR in most areas by midday to early afternoon.

Mainly VFR flight conditions will then continue later this afternoon
through tonight. The exception will be the possibility for Southern
Tier and Black River valley fog formation later tonight, which may
produce localized MVFR/IFR in those areas.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...VFR most of the time, but brief/local
restrictions possible with a few showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are expected to remain below SCA levels through the rest of
the work week. Winds through tonight will generally be out of the
west to northwest, with some northerly winds at times. Winds through
tonight will remain at or below 10 knots for most zones as high
pressure builds into the Ohio Valley and Central Great Lakes. As the
sfc high tracks east, winds will back to the southwest on
Wednesday, with winds again remaining mostly under 10 knots.

Ahead of an approaching sfc low, winds will continue to back to the
south and southeast Wednesday night into most of Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...SW