Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

875
FXUS61 KBUF 071729
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1229 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continuing to monitor the threat for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon, specifically from 1-4 PM EST for western NY.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will bring widespread rain showers and a few strong
thunderstorms with gusty winds to western NY this afternoon.

2) Next chance for rain/storms arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday,
before possibly ending as some mixed precipitation or snow.

3) There remains a low-end threat for flooding through next week,
mainly across the North Country, as a result of above normal
temperatures and multiple rounds of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will bring widespread rain showers and
a few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds to western NY this
afternoon.

Latest GOES DCP RGB imagery has shows clearing skies across much of
western NY through midday with a line of showers approaching the
Niagara Peninsula early this afternoon. At the surface, a deepening
trough from the Midwest to Southern Quebec will continue to slide
eastward with notably strong kinematics, forcing a 55-65kt
southwesterly LLJ to move overhead this afternoon and evening. The
main focus for severe thunderstorms continues to be along the line
of stronger convection with the system`s pre-frontal trough this
afternoon. Latest radar imagery over central OH and portions of
central Lake Erie shows this line of storms continuing to organize
and moving east slightly quicker than morning CAMs suggested.
With that being considered, the main window for strong to severe
thunderstorms will be between 1-4 PM EST for western NY with
sub- severe storms impacting north-central NY between 4-7 PM
EST. Additional round of showers expected later this evening and
overnight closer to the cold frontal passage behind the main
line.

The general area of SPC`s Outlook for severe weather this
afternoon and early this evening persists from the previous
outlooks, with a Slight Risk (2/5) from roughly the Genesee
Valley westward, and a Marginal Risk (1/5) further east. This is
largely driven by the strong dynamic forcing that will be in
play, with the LLJ bring impressive 0-6km bulk shear values of
45-50kts along the pre-frontal trough which will pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts. Low-level wind profiles are also
problematic across WNY with veering winds in the 0-1km layer
producing around 200 m2/s2 of SRH. HREF probabilities of STP
values >1 are around 60-70% for the western Southern Tier as
well, so can`t completely rule out an isolated tornado with any
bowing line segments that align perpendicular to the 0-3km shear
vectors. Today`s outlook did introduce a 5% tornado probability
area over northeast OH and northwest PA with an associated CIG1
hatched area that extends northeast into portions of the
western Southern Tier further highlighting this potential.

While instability has been a concern with this setup, clearing skies
across much of western NY late this morning will allow enough
diurnal insolation to support SBCAPE values to exceed 500 J/kg,
but likely remain below 1000 J/kg. This narrow corridor of
instability will be pinched between the cool southwest breeze
off icy Lake Erie and cooler temperatures over the terrain
farther to the east. There will still remain a high degree of
CIN to the environment downwind of the lake, but areas from KBUF
and southward remain under SSW low- level flow and seem to be
rather unaffected at this time with less overlake flow
immediately upstream. This shows with KBUF ASOS reaching 70 degF
by midday Saturday. Thinking this influence will likely be
greatest northward towards the Niagara Falls area.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Next chance for rain/storms arrives Tuesday night
and Wednesday, before possibly ending as some mixed precipitation or
snow.

A dry period expected Sunday through Tuesday with a day to day
warming trend and above normal temperatures for early March. The
next chance for rain/storms arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Current guidance suggesting that a northern stream shortwave may try
to phase with a southern stream closed low locked into the four
corners region. This wave then moves eastward into the region during
the Tuesday night and Wednesday time period. Ensembles are in decent
agreement on this solution and bringing chances for rain and
possible thunderstorms to the region. Deterministic guidance
pointing to strong high pressure over eastern Canada possibly
forcing a backdoor cold front south into the region Wednesday night
and Thursday. This could bring cooler temperatures and a potential
risk for mixed precipitation or snow, but there is a fair amount of
uncertainty among long range ensembles on the depth of the trough
and timing. Majority of GEPS members are slightly slower or less
sharp with the upper level trough compared to EC and GEFS members.
Regardless, most guidance suggests 850mb temps will dip towards -10
to -14 degC by late next week after being above the climatological
90th percentile for the first half of the week.


KEY MESSAGE 3...There remains a low-end threat for flooding through
next week, mainly across the North Country, as a result of above
normal temperatures and multiple rounds of rain.

Above normal temperatures along with long range ensemble guidance
and WPC forecast showing an additional 1-2.5" of QPF across the
eastern Great Lakes over the next 7 days. This pattern will lead to
rises on most area waterways with an increased threat for flooding
as the rainfall combines with accelerated snowmelt runoff.

Based on the limited amount of SWE and antecedent water levels being
low, the threat for flooding should be very limited for the
waterways across western NY. However, numerous creeks are forecast
to crest in Action stage, though are expected to remain below flood
stage this weekend. The few exceptions continue to be the Tonawanda
Creek at Batavia and at Rapids looking to crest at Minor flood stage
Sunday morning and Monday, respectively.

A different story east of Lake Ontario as recent SWE surveys have
measured over 10" of liquid in the snowpack across the Tug Hill.
This could lead minor flooding along the Black River and other
rivers (Beaver, Independence, and Moose) that drain the western
Adirondacks and Tug Hill Plateau. MMEFS guidance suggests water
levels on the Black River should continue to rise through the
weekend, cresting near the middle of next week. Still some
discrepancy in regards to maximum crest height on the Black River
(Watertown and Boonville), though aside from the typically bullish
NAEFS, there is only a low (15% chance or less) chance to reach
flood stage. While a slow rise to Action stage appears to be the
most likely scenario, will need to continue monitoring trends.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will move quickly northeast across Quebec this evening
with a trailing cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes. The
majority of the showers and scattered thunderstorms will be found
along a pre-frontal trough, which will cross Western NY this
afternoon before reaching Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario
region by early this evening. Expect a 2-3 hour window of scattered
thunderstorms and moderate to briefly heavy showers and CIG/VSBY
restrictions at any given location as this trough crosses the
region from west to east. A few thunderstorms may contain locally
gusty winds. It will be quite windy this afternoon and evening even
outside of the thunderstorms, with gusts in the 25-35 knot range.

A few showers will linger through the first half of tonight as the
actual cold front crosses the eastern Great Lakes, but there will be
little instability remaining so no thunder is expected after early
this evening. Widespread MVFR/IFR CIGS will develop this evening and
continue overnight. Marine layer fog and low stratus over Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario may bring reduced VSBY close to the lakes tonight.
Some of this marine layer fog may advect into KBUF for a few hours
during the mid to late evening with LIFR CIGS/VSBY.

Sunday, areas of low stratus with MVFR and higher elevation IFR will
persist into the morning before improving to mainly VFR by midday to
early afternoon. It will become quite windy again from late morning
through afternoon with gusts in the 25 to 35 knot range, strongest
northeast of Lake Erie.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers in the afternoon.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR with occasional rain
showers. Chance of a few isolated thunderstorms. Windy Wednesday
night.

Thursday...Areas of MVFR with snow showers likely. Windy.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will move northeast across Quebec this evening, with a
trailing cold front crossing the lower Great Lakes. Moderate to
strong SSW winds will produce Small Craft Advisory conditions on
Lake Ontario and Lake Erie through much of tonight. There will be a
brief period of somewhat lower winds late tonight and early Sunday
morning before southwest winds increase again Sunday. This will
maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes. A similar
trend will occur Monday, with a brief early morning lull in winds
before southwest winds increase again through the daytime. Winds
will diminish Monday night through Tuesday.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for LEZ020-040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Sunday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers/PP/TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock