Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

529
FXUS61 KBUF 271710
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
110 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Increased POPS south of Lake Ontario Thursday morning for a
brief period of scattered light showers.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) A few scattered light showers possible Thursday morning behind a
weak cold front.

2) A stronger cold front will move south across the area late Friday
through Friday night with a few showers possible, followed by below
average temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A few scattered light showers possible Thursday
morning behind a weak cold front.

A weak and moisture starved cold front will move south of the area
this afternoon with nothing more than a wind shift and a few areas
of mid/high clouds. The associated mid level trough will swing
across NY and New England Thursday morning. Large scale ascent in
the DPVA and height falls ahead of the trough will combine with
northwest upslope flow and a modest increase in moisture to bring
the chance of a few scattered showers Thursday morning. The best
chance of a few showers will be found across The Genesee Valley and
Finger Lakes.

Any showers and the brief period of cloud cover will clear from
north to south Thursday with increasing amounts of sunshine in the
afternoon. A cooler airmass behind the departing cold front will
keep temperatures cooler Thursday, with highs in the mid 60s for
lower elevations and around 60 higher terrain and along the Lake
Ontario shore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front will move south across the
area late Friday through Friday night with a few showers possible,
followed by below average temperatures for the weekend.

A compact but deep mid level low will move south across Quebec
Friday, reaching New England Saturday. The stronger forcing and deep
moisture associated with this system will remain well east of the
area across eastern NY and New England, where the more widespread
rain will be found. Farther west, the surface cold front will move
south across the Great Lakes late Friday afternoon and Friday night,
bringing a chance of a few light showers. The greatest chance of
measurable rain will be east of Lake Ontario in closer proximity to
the mid level closed low.

Dry weather will return Saturday for most of the area as high
pressure builds into the central Great Lakes. A low chance of a few
showers will continue across the North Country where cyclonic flow
and shallow low level moisture linger on the western periphery of
the closed low over New England.

It will be much cooler Saturday, with highs only in the low to mid
60s at best for lower elevations and upper 50s higher terrain. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 40s, with some upper 30s possible in
the Southern Tier Valleys and Lewis County. Temperatures will begin
to recover closer to average by Sunday afternoon after a chilly
start.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak, moisture-starved cold front will push south of the Western
NY/PA border by 18z this afternoon. Conditions are expected to
remain VFR across the region with just passing mid to high clouds.
Winds behind the front will prevail northwesterly at around 10kts or
less, subsiding to 5kts or less overnight tonight.

An upper level trough axis and secondary cold front will similarly
drop southward through the eastern Great Lakes beginning early
Thursday morning. Despite unfavorable diurnal timing, this feature
will have a bit more moisture to work with. Scattered showers will
likely develop over or near Lake Ontario around 09z, then track
southward towards the Finger Lakes region while diminishing through
about 16z. Vsbys are expected to remain VFR, though a swath of low
VFR to MVFR cloud cover associated with this area of precip is
expected. Greatest chances for showers will be east of KBUF to
around KFZY, while highest confidence in MVFR cigs is at the higher
elevations south of KBUF and KROC.

By 18z Thursday afternoon, the showers and lower cloud cover should
be mostly scoured out with a return to areawide VFR.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR to MVFR with scattered
showers Friday afternoon into Friday night. Greatest potential for
showers east of KROC.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR. An isolated shower or two, mainly east of KART.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers across the North
Country late.

Monday...VFR/MVFR. 20-40% chances for showers inland from the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds in the 10-15 knot range will bring some chop to Lake
Ontario tonight through Thursday morning, but winds and waves will
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Westerly winds will increase Friday ahead of another cold front,
with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible on Lake Ontario. Winds
will become northwest Friday night behind the cold front, then
diminish later Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...Hitchcock