Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

088
FXUS61 KBUF 030626
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
126 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light freezing rain is expected across the Southern Tier today,
with some snow across the Tug Hill Plateau, and just light rain
elsewhere.

2) A series of warmer systems will bring periods of rain and
possibly some hydrological concerns later this week...with some
limited freezing rain also possible Thursday and Thursday night.

3) Springlike warmth will move into the region this week and likely
continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Light freezing rain is expected across the Southern
Tier today, with wet snow across the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario, and just light rain elsewhere.

A passing weak mid level shortwave will support the development and
rapid eastward progression of a frontal wave along an east-west
baroclinic zone stretched from the Ohio Valley to southern New
England. Warm advection and moisture transport will spread northeast
across the area today in advance of the weak wave, with light
precipitation overspreading Western and Central NY from southwest
to northeast. The precipitation will reach maximum coverage later
this afternoon before quickly tapering off and ending from west to
east tonight as the wave of low pressure moves quickly off the New
England coast.

Precipitation type will be mainly rain on the lake plains with a
midday to afternoon arrival time allowing for the boundary layer to
warm above freezing. A period of light freezing rain is likely
across the Southern Tier this morning through the midday hours where
colder surface temperatures will linger. Ice accumulations will be
light, less than a tenth of an inch. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in place for the western Southern Tier. Marginally cold
surface temperatures combined with the high March sun angle will
likely keep any road impacts very minor and spotty even where
freezing rain materializes.

Temperatures aloft will remain a few degrees colder across the North
Country, supporting a rain/snow mix today into this evening. The
higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western foothills of the
Adirondacks should remain cold enough for all snow, with
accumulations of 1-2 inches across higher terrain.

The precipitation will quickly end from west to east tonight.
Forecast soundings show a shallow layer of low level moisture will
be left behind in the very weak boundary layer flow in the wake of
the system. A steepening low level inversion may support the
development of fog and low stratus overnight across much of the
region, with the fog lasting through Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A series of warmer systems will bring periods of
rain and possibly some hydrological concerns later this week...with
some limited freezing rain also possible Thursday and Thursday night.

The large-scale pattern will across North America will gradually
amplify as we push through the middle and latter portions of the
week...with a zonal flow on Wednesday giving way to developing
western troughing and downstream eastern height rises/building
ridging by late in the week. This change will be driven by a series
of shortwave troughs and attendant surface waves rippling
eastward...then eventually more northeastward through the larger-
scale mean flow as the pattern amplifies.

Following the passage of the initial weak system today and tonight
(see Key Message 1 above)...a passing surface ridge should bring us
a dry Wednesday...before departing off to our east Wednesday night.
At the same time...additional shortwave energy will ripple along the
frontal boundary deposited across the Ohio Valley by today`s
system...causing it to slowly lift back northward as a warm front
Wednesday night through Thursday night...with the main shortwave
trough/attendant surface low eventually passing over or just south
of our region Thursday night. As a result...we can expect our next
round of widespread precipitation Thursday and Thursday night.

While thermal profiles continue to suggest that the atmospheric
column will be warm enough to support predominantly plain rain with
this next system...there may be a couple of exceptions to this. The
first (and less likely scenario) may come along and a bit inland
from the south shore of Lake Ontario Thursday morning...where an ENE
low-level flow could result in surface temps cold enough to support
a brief period of freezing rain at the onset. This being said...the
latest guidance also continues to slow down the arrival of the
pcpn...which could act to greatly limit this potential/any impacts
on roads and walkways given the steepening early March sun angle.
The other possible (and more likely) area of concern will lie across
the Saint Lawrence Valley/and immediately adjoining portions of
Jefferson county Thursday night...where the cold NE flow up the
Saint Lawrence Valley and nocturnal time frame may support a better
potential for some freezing rain/light icing.

In comparison to today`s weaker surface wave...the systems affecting
our region from Thursday onward through the weekend appear to have
the potential to deliver more substantial basin-average rainfall
amounts over time...with a multimodel consensus still supporting the
idea of a general 1-2" of rain falling across our region from
Thursday through the weekend. Highly localized higher amounts of 2-
3" are also not out of the question...with this risk greater if a
few thunderstorms can develop. With respect to the latter...a couple
of these cannot be ruled out across the Southern Tier Thursday
night...and then in a more general sense Saturday/Saturday night in
association with a passing cold front.

Coupled with progressively warmer temperatures driving increasing
runoff from snowmelt (particularly east of Lake Ontario where the
snowpack is deeper and SWE`s higher)...this rainfall will result in
rising levels on area waterways later on this week and weekend.
While MMEFS river forecasts continue to suggest that there should be
little concern through Thursday...by Friday a number of waterways
north of the southern Tier are projected to at least reach action
stage...with a few potentially reaching or exceeding minor flood
stage. The best chances for the latter appear to lie within the
Black River basin where the combination of potential rainfall and
runoff from snowmelt will be greatest...though a few of the Buffalo
and Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes creeks will also need to be watched.
The elevated flows will then likely continue into the first part of
next week on some of our slower responding waterways (most notably
the Black River and Tonawanda Creek). The ongoing warmup and
rainfall/snowmelt will also induce the breakup and movement of ice
where it still exists on area waterways...thereby leading to the
risk for a few ice jams as well.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Springlike warmth will move into the region this
week and likely continue into next week.

The ongoing pattern change will also act to pump increasingly warmer
air across our region right through the start of the upcoming
weekend...with increasing chances of temperatures climbing to
springlike levels by Friday and especially Saturday as the main
surface low track shifts progressively further northwestward. This
particularly appears to be the case south of Lake Ontario on
Saturday...where widespread high temps in the 60s (and possibly some
readings in the 70s) are appearing increasingly likely.

It should be noted that while the potential passage of a cold front
may then help to knock readings back somewhat for Sunday...the
overall pattern of a trough in the west/ridge in the east looks to
persist through the first half of next week...thereby strongly
favoring continued well above normal temperatures as highlighted in
CPC`s 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak wave of low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley today to
New England tonight. Warm advection and moisture transport
associated with this system will spread light precipitation into the
region today from southwest to northeast, with the best coverage
peaking later this afternoon before the precipitation ends from west
to east tonight. Precipitation type will be mainly rain for the
lower elevations of Western and Central NY. A period of freezing
rain is likely across the Southern Tier this morning through midday
before temperatures warm above freezing. Wet snow will mix in east
of Lake Ontario, with the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and
western foothills of the Adirondacks likely staying cold enough to
support all snow.

CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR for lower elevations and IFR higher
terrain today from south to north a few hours after the
precipitation begins. Tonight, forecast soundings suggest a shallow
layer of moisture being left behind as the weak system departs. This
will support the development of areas of fog and low stratus
overnight with IFR becoming more prevalent even across lower
elevations. There is some risk of the fog becoming dense enough to
impact airport operations late tonight through Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Areas of IFR in fog and low stratus early, improving to
VFR.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR with showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated south winds will continue to produce choppy conditions
across the northeast end of Lake Ontario today before winds diminish
tonight.

Low pressure will pass just south of the lower Great Lakes Thursday
through early Friday. East to northeast winds will increase on Lake
Ontario as this system passes by, with a period of Small Craft
Advisory conditions likely.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST
     this afternoon for NYZ019>021.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock