Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

213
FXUS61 KBUF 281712
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
112 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Another cold front will move south across the area late Friday
through Friday night with a few showers possible, followed by below
average temperatures Saturday.

2) Near to slightly below average temperatures through the first
half of next week with a chance of a few showers at times east of
Lake Ontario.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Another cold front will move south across the area
late Friday through Friday night with a few showers possible,
followed by below average temperatures Saturday.

A compact and progressive mid level closed low will dive southeast
across Quebec Friday into New England Friday night, with an
associated surface cold front moving south across the area Friday
evening. The deeper moisture and strongest forcing with this system
will pass over northeast NY and New England, where the most
organized rain will be found.

Farther west, a few showers will develop east of Lake Ontario Friday
afternoon and continue through Friday night, most persistent in
upslope areas of the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks.
Forcing will be weaker and moisture more shallow along the front
with western extent, and this will only support a low chance of a
few brief, scattered showers from the Finger Lakes westward across
Western NY Friday evening.

Showers east of Lake Ontario will end by daybreak Saturday, leaving
dry weather to prevail as high pressure and associated dry air and
subsidence build into the Great Lakes. A cool airmass will arrive
behind the departing cold front, with highs only in the low to mid
60s at best for lower elevations, and upper 50s higher terrain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Near to slightly below average temperatures through
the first half of next week with a chance of a few showers at times
east of Lake Ontario.

Relatively benign weather is expected Sunday through the middle of
next week. A deep trough will remain in place downstream across
eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes, with the eastern
Great Lakes situated in northerly flow aloft between this trough and
an Omega Block over the Canadian Prairie Provinces. A series of mid
level shortwaves will move through the mean longwave trough and
support a chance of a few showers at times east of Lake Ontario late
Sunday through Tuesday, but rainfall amounts will be light with each
round. Farther west, mainly dry conditions are expected from the
Genesee Valley westward.

Temperatures will remain near or slightly below average through the
period. Highs most days will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s for
lower elevations Sunday through Tuesday, with mid 60s higher
terrain. A warming trend will likely develop towards the end of next
week as the ridge over central North America begins to flatten and
build east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are present this afternoon across WNY under cool
northerly flow. Diurnal cumulus deck has formed over the land areas
to the south of the eastern Great Lakes, but this has kept most of
the TAF sites scattered due to their proximity to the Lakes, while
further south and east ceilings have developed around 3000-4000 ft.
Expect more of the same until this evening when lower clouds
dissipate, and skies will remain relatively clear overnight.

High clouds will increase overnight in advance of a low pressure
system dropping southward over the St. Lawrence Valley. As the low
deepens over northern NY tomorrow morning, showers will move into
areas east of Lake Ontario. VFR conditions should hold here through
early afternoon (including KART), but MVFR ceilings are expected to
develop across the eastern shore of Lake Ontario at some point
tomorrow afternoon.

Winds will gust 15-20 kts out of the north the rest of this
afternoon, and then 20-25 kts out of the W/WSW tomorrow.

Outlook...

Friday night...MVFR conditions are likely across the North Country
to the eastern shore of Lake Ontario due to increasing rain showers.
Mainly VFR conditions to the south and west.

Saturday...Majority VFR. Some persisting MVFR conditions possible
across the North Country including KART.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers across the North
Country late.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. 20-40% chances for showers and
MVFR mainly east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
West to west-southwesterly winds will increase Friday out ahead of
another cold front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions becoming
likely on Lake Ontario, and possible across eastern Lake Erie. Winds
will then quickly veer to northerly behind the cold front Friday
night with Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing on Lake
Ontario, before gradually diminishing through the day Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...Hitchcock