Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

584
FXUS61 KBUF 270733
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
233 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
New Lake Effect Snow Warning for Wayne County from 9 PM this evening
through 1 PM Wednesday.

New Winter Weather Advisory issued for the Niagara Frontier
through 10 PM this evening for blowing and drifting snow along
with minor snow accumulations from lake enhanced snow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Ontario through the
end of the week, with bands varying in location and intensity.
Limited lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie.

2) A prolonged period of bitterly cold air will remain in place
through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Ontario
through the end of the week, with bands varying in location and
intensity. Limited lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie.

Lake effect snow will continue in some form most of the time through
the rest of the week. A series of clipper shortwaves will bring
numerous wind direction changes and modulate the environment over
the lakes, forcing numerous band oscillations and changes in
intensity. Extensive ice cover on Lake Erie will limit, but not end
the lake effect snow potential.

Southwest winds will gust in the 30-40+ mph range today across the
Niagara Frontier northeast of Lake Erie, producing extensive blowing
and drifting snow and difficult travel in open areas.

Off Lake Ontario...

A band of heavy snow over Oswego County early this morning will move
steadily north and east into Jefferson County through mid morning as
boundary layer flow rapidly backs to the southwest. Increasing shear
will likely force the band to weaken through the morning and midday
hours.

Lake induced equilibrium levels will peak this evening at nearly 14K
feet over Lake Ontario as the clipper shortwave passes over the lake
and deepens cold air and moisture. Expect a band of snow to
intensify over Jefferson County this afternoon on southwest flow. A
trough associated with the clipper will then cross the lake late
this afternoon and evening, merging with the lake effect band and
enhancing low level convergence. This will further strengthen the
band, and also force it to move southward across the Tug Hill region
to Oswego County through the evening hours. The band will likely get
as far south as northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga counties for
awhile late tonight through Wednesday morning and take on an anti-
cyclonic curvature as a land breeze circulation enhances convergence
along the south shore.

Snowfall rates late today through Wednesday morning may reach 2-3"
per hour in the most intense portion of the band. The band movement
and frequent change in location will limit accumulation potential
somewhat, but still expect locally heavy accumulations where the
band has some residence time.

Later Wednesday morning through afternoon boundary layer flow will
back to the WSW again ahead of the next shortwave. This will force
the band to move back northeast across Oswego County to the Tug Hill
region and Jefferson County. Increasing shear may force some
weakening in the afternoon.

A shortwave trough will ripple across our region Wednesday night,
taking a single band of heavy lake effect snow that lifted northward
towards southern Jefferson and western Lewis counties back southward
as the flow veers behind the shortwave trough. There is model
indication that the snow band will take on an anticyclonic shape,
which typically results in an increase in snowfall rates, perhaps
3"/hr or more as it drops southward along the southeastern Lake
Ontario shoreline. Coupled with upstream lake moisture this band of
snow could yield a foot or more of snow Wednesday night and into
Thursday morning for the immediate Oswego County shoreline, with a
light wind flow (that will be from the southwest on the southern
flank of the snowband) limiting the overall snow accumulation
farther inland into the County.

On a northwest flow a band of snow will likely continue southeast of
Lake Ontario through the day Thursday. A cold front will slowly drop
southward across the Lake Thursday night, shoving the band of snow
to along the entire southern Lake Ontario shoreline, before added
wind shear, and added low level dry air, disrupts the snowband
Friday. A continued northwest to northerly flow Friday through
Saturday night will maintain at least chances for light lake effect
snow south of Lake Ontario.

Off Lake Erie...

Extensive ice cover on the lake will certainly play a role in
diminishing lake effect potential, but the lake was still able to
enhance a band of snow that moved north across the Buffalo Metro
area during the pre-dawn hours, proof that there is still enough
open water or thin ice for the lake to still influence the boundary
layer.

Southwest flow will continue today ahead of the clipper, supporting
occasional lake enhanced snow showers northeast of Lake Erie across
the Niagara Frontier. The snow should peak in coverage this
afternoon through this evening as synoptic scale ascent and moisture
increase with the passage of the clipper. Snow showers will move
south to the higher terrain well south of Buffalo by mid evening,
then gradually weaken to flurries overnight. Expect 2-4" of
accumulation today through this evening east and northeast of Lake
Erie including the Buffalo Metro area. The combination of a few
inches of snow and gusty winds will result in difficult travel,
especially in open areas.

Boundary layer flow will back to the southwest again Wednesday ahead
of the next clipper. There will be less synoptic scale ascent and
moisture, and more shear, so just expect scattered light snow
showers east and northeast of the lake with spotty minor
accumulations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A prolonged period of bitterly cold air will remain
in place through the end of the week.

A very cold airmass will remain in place through the end of the
week. Wind chills will run below zero much of the time, with a few
periods of notably colder wind chills.

Strong winds today will drop wind chills to near 15 below zero
across the Niagara Frontier and 20 below zero across the western
Southern Tier this morning, with modest improvement this afternoon.
Wind chills across the western Southern Tier will continue to run in
the 10 below to 15 below zero range tonight through Wednesday
morning.

A -2SD 500 hPa trough will then drop across the Great Lakes and mid-
Atlantic region Thursday and Thursday night, with a surface cold
front slowly settling southward across Lake Ontario. The anchored
trough aloft over the Northeast will maintain below normal
temperatures mid to late week, and matching the cold beginning half
of the week will likely bring a weeks worth of maximum temperatures
in the teens or colder. The last time this occurred was the winter
of 2017-18 (late December into early January).

The coldest period is likely to be Thursday night and Friday.
Temperatures at 850 hPa lower to -20 to -22C that with a light
northwest flow will bring dangerously low wind chill values into the
negative teens, if not negative 20s...with actual temperatures below
zero and possibly negative teens for the North Country.

Remaining cold Friday with single digit highs common for our region
outside of lake snowbands (where modified airmass from Lake Ontario
may allow for maximum temperatures just above 10F).

Modest relief will enter our region to start next weekend as a less
frigid airmass settled into our region...with temperatures possibly
reaching 20F next Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue today east of Lake Ontario and Lake
Erie with locally poor flight conditions. Outside of lake effect, it
will be quite windy today with gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range in
most areas and 30 to 35 knots northeast of Lake Erie. The gusty
winds will produce some blowing and drifting snow on airfields.
CIGS/VSBY outside of lake effect areas will generally run VFR most
of the time today through tonight.

Off Lake Ontario, a band of heavy lake effect snow over Oswego
County early this morning will move rapidly north and east towards
KART through mid to late morning as boundary layer flow backs to the
southwest. Lake effect snow will intensify this afternoon near KART,
then move back south this evening across the Tug Hill region to
Oswego County, remaining near KFZY overnight. This band of snow will
produce local LIFR/VLIFR conditions in heavy snow.

Off Lake Erie, the lake is mostly ice covered, but will still be
able to enhance snowfall to some extent from breaks in the ice and
from areas of thin/slushy ice cover. Expect occasional snow showers
today northeast of Lake Erie with periods of IFR, including KBUF and
KIAG. The snow should peak in coverage this afternoon through this
evening as a clipper passes across the eastern Great Lakes and
enhances moisture and ascent. The lake enhanced snow will move south
towards KJHW later this afternoon and evening, then weaken to
flurries overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Localized lake effect snow with LIFR
east and southeast of Lake Ontario. Much weaker lake effect snow
will produce local IFR east of Lake Erie. VFR/MVFR outside of lake
effect areas.

Friday...Lake effect snow along the south shore of Lake Ontario with
local IFR. VFR/MVFR elsewhere.

Saturday...Light snow showers south of Lake Ontario with areas of
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated westerly winds will continue through Thursday on the
eastern Great Lakes, producing Small Craft Advisory conditions most
of the time. Winds will become northwest Thursday night through
Friday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely continuing along
the south shore of Lake Ontario.

Of note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are now
ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ001-
     002-010>012-019>021-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ001-002-010>012-085.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ004.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ005-
     006.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ005>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LOZ043-
         044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock