Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

191
FXUS61 KBUF 271136
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
636 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Upped sky cover for today based upon upstream satellite trends.

Increased winds/gusts and precipitation chances attendant to the
approach/passage of a cold front late tonight/early Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and milder weather today and much of tonight... followed by
the passage of a cold front and briefly gusty winds later tonight/
early Saturday.

2) Light snow and minor accumulations likely Saturday night through
early Sunday morning, followed by a brief push of cold air to start
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and milder weather today and much of tonight...
followed by the passage of a cold front and briefly gusty winds
later tonight/early Saturday.

Surface high pressure draped from the Piedmont to New England will
drift east and off the mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines
today...while deepening low pressure over southern Manitoba makes
its way to central Ontario. While a couple light snow showers cannot
be completely ruled out across the North Country and Saint Lawrence
Valley this morning in association with the latter system`s warm
front...we can otherwise expect dry weather. After a chilly
start...the warm advection pattern in between the departing ridge
and advancing low will help to pump milder air across our
region...with thermal fields supporting high temps of roughly a half
dozen to dozen degrees above normal today. This being said...with
the latest update have tried to better account for a swath of 4-5
kft clouds over Southern Ontario and western Lake Erie that is
slowly pushing eastward and is not being handled particularly well
by guidance...with this likely to affect the western half of the
area to at least some extent between mid morning and the first part
of this afternoon.

As we push through tonight the surface low will lift northeast
across the southern end of James Bay...with a strengthening
southwesterly flow of mild air remaining in place across our region
until the arrival of the system`s trailing cold front late tonight.
Consequently...we can expect tonight`s lows to range some 15 to 20
degrees above typical end-of-February normals. As the cold front
approaches late tonight...increasing low level convergence and an
uptick in moisture will trigger some scattered light rain showers
(with higher-elevation wet snow showers east of Lake Ontario)...for
which PoPs have been bumped into the chance range in line with some
of the more realistic-looking shorter-term guidance.

The cold front itself will also preceded by the passage of a fairly
impressive 50-60 knot southwesterly low level jet later tonight and
early Saturday...though rather stable thermal profiles ahead of the
front will generally not allow these to mix down to the surface all
that effectively...with the orientation of low level wind profiles
also unsupportive of a headline-worthy downslope wind event.
Nonetheless...we`ll still probably see some gusts to 30-35 mph
across western portions of the Niagara Frontier and within the Black
River Valley east of Lake Ontario prior to/with the cold frontal
passage...with some higher gusts to around 40 mph also possible
along the Lake Erie shoreline. Winds and gusts will then drop off
markedly within an hour or two of the frontal passage later
tonight/early Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure draped from the Piedmont to New England will slide
east and off the mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines today...
while low pressure over southern Manitoba makes its way to central
Ontario. This promote dry weather and widespread VFR conditions
across the area today...along with light to modest winds. This being
said...with the latest TAFs have tried to better account for a swath
of lower-end VFR clouds across Southern Ontario and western Lake
Erie that is slowly pushing eastward and is not being handled
particularly well by guidance...with this now expected to affect our
western terminals to at least some extent between mid morning and
the first part of this afternoon.

Tonight the surface low will make its way across the southern tip of
James Bay and into northwestern Quebec...while pivoting its trailing
cold front into our region by 12z Saturday. Widespread VFR
conditions will continue through the first half of the night...with
some scattered...mainly rain showers then developing and ceilings
lowering into the lower VFR/MVFR range with the approach/passage of
the front late tonight and early Saturday.

With a 50-60 knot southwesterly low level jet also traversing the
area from west to east in advance of the cold front...a period of
LLWS is also expected to develop at most of the TAF sites this
evening into the early overnight hours...before dissipating in a
similar manner with the departure of the LLJ later tonight/early
Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday...Leftover scattered rain and higher-elevation wet snow
showers east of the lakes ending in the morning...with early
MVFR/low VFR ceilings improving to VFR.

Saturday night...Areas of light snow/associated IFR likely.

Sunday...Areas of MVFR with a few light snow showers possible.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR...with a few rain/snow showers
possible Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
After quiet conditions today...the next period of stronger winds and
advisory-worthy conditions will arrive tonight as a cold front
crosses the lower Great Lakes...with conditions then gradually
improving from west to east Saturday and Saturday evening.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
         Saturday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
         Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM
         EST Saturday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
         Saturday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
         Saturday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR