Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

626
FXUS61 KBUF 310009
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
809 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and a few storms possible from the Finger
Lakes east through the remainder of the afternoon, otherwise
increasingly drier conditions return through Saturday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms develop for the second half of the
weekend bringing the potential for another round of heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Scattered showers and a few storms possible
from the Finger Lakes east through the remainder of the
afternoon, otherwise increasingly drier conditions return
through Saturday.

The western periphery of persistent stacked low pressure spinning
over southeastern New England will continue to impact portions of
our area through the late afternoon/evening hours while slowly
weakening and ever so slowly starting to exit east off the New
England coast through tonight. Although areas from the Genesee
Valley westward are expected to remain dry, a veil of low cloud
cover will hang in across western NY through the remainder of the
afternoon. Further east, deeper moisture combined with diurnal
heating will keep the threat of widely scattered showers and
possibly an isolated storm two in the forecast for the Finger Lakes
region and points east into the late afternoon/early evening hours.

As deeper moisture associated with this stubborn area of low
pressure finally begins to exit east and drier/air subsidence
attendant to high pressure building in from the west, eastern areas
will finally dry out tonight, with dry and seasonably warm weather
for Friday. Mainly dry and seasonably warm weather is expected to
persist into Saturday, although a modest uptick in humidity levels
in advance of the next system combined with diurnal heating may be
enough to trigger a couple widely scattered showers/storms along any
lake breeze circulation boundaries Saturday afternoon.

Key Message 2...Showers and thunderstorms develop for the second
half of the weekend bringing the potential for another round of
heavy rainfall.

An upper level trough will dig south across the western Great Lakes
Saturday night, while at the same time be in the process of phasing
with a potent mid-level shortwave/attendant surface low diving
southeast into the Ohio Valley. This will result in a
deepening/sharpening mid and upper-level trough that will also slow
its eastward progression. This will allow for a deep southwesterly
flow to develop with warm/humid air being advected in across the
region all the way from the Gulf. This will transport an anomalously
high PWAT airmass northeast into the region late Saturday night and
Sunday with PWAT values possibly approaching 2 inches. In addition,
a 30-40 knot LLJ will move into the region ahead of surface cold
front later Saturday night and Sunday. This will not only give a
boost to the overall forcing, but will result in some breezy to
possibly windy conditions as well. Taking these aforementioned
factors into account, expect a round or rounds of showers and storms
from later Saturday night through at least the day Sunday, and
possibly into Sunday night for which WPC continues with a Slight
Risk (Level 2 of 4) for areas east of the Genesee Valley, with a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) across the remainder of western NY.

Beyond Sunday, there remains some disagreement amongst medium range
guidance as to the overall pattern evolution going into the first
part of next week. Majority of medium range guidance, including the
NBM have the deeper moisture and more persistent shower activity
pushing east of the area by or during the day Monday with drying
conditions. However, just looking at the overall pattern and some
outliers in the guidance, there is some potential for a cutoff low
to develop somewhere over or near our region first part of next week
as well, which would result in more in the way of at least on and
off showery weather during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

For the 00Z TAFs VFR flight conditions are found as an upper
level low exits farther to the east and weak surface high
pressure builds towards our region.

Residual moisture will allow for patches of fog to form,
especially across eastern zones where rain showers occurred
today. This may bring fog into the KART airfield overnight.
Additionally, river valley fog forming in the Southern Tier may
expand up and over the KJHW terminal. Will place some periods of
IFR visibility into the KJHW TAF.

Fog will dissipate between 12-13Z tomorrow with VFR flight
conditions with a light wind through the remainder of the TAF
cycle.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Periodic showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours and associated reductions
to MVFR to LIFR, especially from later Saturday night through Sunday
evening.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR and dry, though a few widely
scattered showers/storms and associated restrictions cannot be ruled
out both days.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure will settle across the Lower Lakes Region through
Friday...before slowly drifting off the Atlantic coastline on
Saturday. This will provide us with generally light to modest winds
and minimal wave action through Saturday...with the weak pressure
gradient allowing the development of local lake breeze circulations
and onshore flow Friday afternoon.

Between Saturday night and Sunday night an elongating wave of low
pressure and surface cold front will slowly make their way east
across Lakes Erie and Ontario...with a light to modest southerly
flow out ahead of the front giving way to a northerly/northeasterly
flow of similar strength following its passage. Of more concern to
marine interests will be the showers and thunderstorms that are
expected to accompany the frontal passage...some of which could
contain locally heavy downpours/greatly reduced visibility and
locally higher winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...JJR