Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

106
FXUS61 KBUF 262331
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
731 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few spotty showers and thunderstorms through this evening.

2) Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
from Monday through Tuesday night, some of these storms may
produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

3) Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger into
Thursday, with drier conditions for the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...A few spotty showers and thunderstorms through
this evening.

An upper level trough deepens across the Northeast today. An
embedded shortwave trough is expected to move from the Upper Great
Lakes region to the Ohio Valley. Diurnal heating and modest
dewpoints across the eastern Great Lakes region will support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms inland from lake
breezes through early this evening. Further to the west, numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across southern
Ontario into Ohio this afternoon, and this activity may reach the
eastern Lake Erie shoreline and the Buffalo/Niagara Falls Metros by
early evening. Hi-res guidance has trended drier in recent runs.

Key Message 2...Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
from Monday through Tuesday night, some of these storms may
produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

An upper level ridge will build across the Northern Plains and Upper
Great Lakes region through Monday. This will nudge the upper level
trough over the Northeast while putting the eastern Great Lakes
region within northwest flow aloft. Similar to previous days,
diurnal heating and dewpoints in the 60s will support showers and
thunderstorms inland from lake breezes Monday afternoon. Surface-
based CAPE is expected to be higher Monday, leading to an increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Winds aloft remain on the
weaker side with mean 0-6km wind shear around 15-20 knots across far
western NY, and less than 15 knots elsewhere. A shortwave trough and
surface low are expected to dive across the Central Great Lakes to
the Lake Erie region through Monday night. A corridor of increasing
mid-level winds, steepening mid-level lapse rates, and high PWATS
will move into the Ohio Valley and parts of western NY Monday night.
Mean 0-6km wind shear will increase to 25-30 knots across far
western NY, remaining less than 20 knots east of the Genesee Valley.
The risk for an isolated strong thundertorm increases across
far western NY overnight, especially if organized convection
forms upstream Monday afternoon. If storms develop, the main
hazards are damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Upper level troughing will return across the eastern Great Lakes
region Tuesday, and the surface low will become stacked and nearly
stationary across western and central NY. Diurnal heating within a
very moist environment will support numerous showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday. While winds will be weak within the stacked
low, a low level jet will wrap around the low and a few strong
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall may lead to localized heavy
rainfall across parts of western and central NY Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday evening. The low pivots into southern New England
Tuesday night with a warm, moist conveyor belt moving into the
eastern Lake Ontario region. The potential for showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue into this region.
Northerly flow and wrap-around moisture will move into western NY
and chances for showers will remain overnight.

WPC has the entire region in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall
Monday through Tuesday night.

Key Message 3...Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
to linger into Thursday, with drier conditions for the end of the
work week.

A cool season type set-up will persist Wednesday with a stacked low
over the Northeast. Deep moisture will persist across the forecast
area through Wednesday, before drier air builds into the region
Wednesday night through Thursday. Diurnal heating will support
another day of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Cooler weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday with highs in
the 70s.

High pressure will move into the eastern Great Lakes region for the
end of the week bringing dry and seasonal weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible early this
evening, largely VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight.
Some Southern Tier patchy IFR/MVFR valley fog and/or lower stratus
may develop overnight. Some light (MVFR) fog can also not be
completely ruled out at KIAG overnight.

On Monday any early morning patchy fog/stratus across the Southern
Tier should dissipate fairly quickly with the return of daytime
heating/mixing. Continued diurnal destabilization will then allow
for some widely scattered/scattered showers and thunderstorms (along
with brief/localized restrictions) to develop mostly inland from the
lakes Monday afternoon...with VFR conditions otherwise prevailing.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night...Showers and scattered
thunderstorms pushing across the area from west to east...with
initial VFR flight conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR.

Wednesday...Showers and a few leftover thunderstorms with initial
MVFR/IFR possibly improving to VFR/MVFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms inland from the lakes.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak surface-based ridging will linger across our region through
Monday...with a corresponding weak pressure gradient resulting in
light to modest winds and minimal wave action...and localized lake
breezes developing near the lakeshores both this afternoon and
Monday afternoon.

Monday night through Tuesday a broad wave of low pressure will
settle southeastward across the Great Lakes...with the low then
slowly drifting to the mid-Atlantic coastline Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Out ahead of the low a light to modest southerly flow
will develop Monday night. Winds will then transition to northerly
to northeasterly for Tuesday night/Wednesday once the low passes off
to our southeast...though the finer details of this transition are
not yet clear as these will be highly dependent upon the exact
timing and track of the low...factors which remain rather uncertain
at this time. Once we do get into the northerly/northeasterly flow
behind the low though...this should at least turn moderately brisk
and supportive of choppy conditions along the south shores of the
lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday...with lower-end SCA-level
conditions possible. Winds will then lighten and turn more westerly
Thursday and Friday...allowing for a commensurate decrease in wave
action.

Out ahead of the approaching low...some widely scattered to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will also become possible Monday
into Monday evening...with more widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms then expected later Monday night and Tuesday as the
low crosses our region. Any storms could produce locally higher
winds and waves...with this potential greatest across Lake Erie
later Monday afternoon and Monday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR