Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

715
FXUS61 KBUF 191100
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
700 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Summer-like heat continues today.

2) Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive very late today into
tonight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe
limits (Slight Risk for Severe Weather continues for late today and
tonight).

3) Drier, but much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold
front for the middle and later half of the work week, before the
potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Summer-like heat continues today.

Mid and upper level heights will start to fall today as the mid and
upper level ridge axis slides east of the area. NBM max temperature
output continues to be too warm. Looking at Monday`s high
temperatures, NBM forecast highs averaged 3-5 degrees F too warm.
NBM again looks too warm today. In fact, NBM high temperature output
is right near the top of the chart, nearing the 90th percentile
amongst all other guidance. With that in mind and in coordination
with surrounding offices as has been done over the past several
days, daytime highs were lowered a couple to few degrees again
today. Highs are expected to top out mainly in the mid and upper
80s, with a run at 90 again for those traditionally warmer
locations, while it will remain a bit cooler along and closer to the
lakeshores.

Winds will continue to ramp up through the day with gusts 20-30 mph
areawide this afternoon and up to 35 mph, or even a few gusts to 40
mph northeast of Lake Erie, especially a bit further from the lake
away from the cool dome over and closer to the lakeshore.

A few mainly light showers will cross the area this morning.
Additional scattered showers and storms will then be possible during
the peak heating hours this afternoon, and would mainly be confined
to areas along and inland of any lake breeze circulations. Some
gusty winds are possible with a stronger storm or two, however
overall severe potential through this afternoon remains low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive very
late today into tonight, with a few storms having the potential to
reach severe limits (Slight Risk for Severe Weather continues for
late today and tonight).

Confidence for a few strong to severe storms continues to moderate
for late today through the early overnight hours just ahead of a
strong cold front approaching from the west. CAPE values of 1000-
2000 J/kg (especially earlier in the evening) with 25-35 knots of 0-
6km shear will foster the potential for damaging wind gusts, which
will be the greatest threat. Local BUFKIT soundings continue to
advertise "fat" CAPE profiles, which supports stronger updraft
potential, indicating the possibility for large hail as well.
Finally, 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m^2/s^2 (300-400 m^2/s^2 far
western NY) support the chance for an isolated tornado or two. SPC
has all of western and northcentral NY outlined in a Slight Risk for
scattered severe storms during this period. The best window for
severe storms will be 6-7 PM this evening through 1-2 AM tonight.
With that timing comes the gradual loss of diurnal heating heading
through the evening. This leads to some uncertainty as to whether or
not the line can maintain its` intensity, especially by later in the
evening. Current thinking is the line will maintain intensity as it
nears or enters far western NY early this evening, then gradually
weakens as it heads further east into our area as heating wanes.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier, but much cooler conditions arrive in the wake
of the cold front for the middle and later half of the work week,
before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday
weekend.

A large area of high pressure will build into our region in the wake
of the cold frontal passage, bringing a mainly dry, but much cooler
airmass back in across the area for the middle and later half of the
week. Coolest day will be Thursday, with many locations not getting
out of the 50s. Expect a slow rebound in temperatures into the
holiday weekend with mainly 60s across the area, however an area of
low pressure approaching from the southwest may bring unsettled
weather back into our region for at least a portion of this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR flight conditions are found this morning, and these
conditions will be predominate through most of today, although a
few VFR showers will be around this morning. A few afternoon
instability showers and storms will also be possible along and
inland of lake breeze circulations.

A consistent flow of 35 to 45 knots off the deck will bring gusty
winds later this morning through the afternoon as diurnal mixing
commences, especially northeast of the Lakes where gusts may reach
30 to 35 knots.

The main concern during this TAF period will come tonight. A line of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into far western NY
around early this this evening ahead of a strong cold front, then
trek east while slowly weakening through around 06Z. A few storms
will have the potential to produce strong winds and large hail.
Expect localized LIFR/IFR flight reductions within any of the
stronger storms. In the wake of the cold front, expect widespread
IFR/MVFR CIGS to develop for the second half of tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Lingering IFR/MVFR improving to VFR.

Thursday through Friday...VFR.

Saturday...Potential for sub-VFR with as a low pressure system
brings rain to the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Pressure gradient will continue to tighten across the lower Great
Lake region today ahead of a strong cold front. Light to gentle
breezes this morning will increase to moderate later this morning
into the afternoon bringing a light to moderate chop on both lakes.
However, a freshening breeze will develop across western Lake
Ontario, where a Small Craft Advisory criteria has been issued from
late this morning through the early overnight. In addition, a line
of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead
the cold front bringing the possibility for locally higher winds and
waves early this evening into the overnight with any stronger storm,
with the potential for large hail as well.

Winds will then veer west behind the cold front late tonight, then
freshen through Wednesday morning on eastern Lake Ontario, where
another round of Small Craft Advisories will be possible by later
Wednesday morning through a portion of Wednesday night.

High pressure will then build across the lower Great Lakes region
bringing lessening winds and lowering waves later Wednesday night
through Thursday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
         Wednesday for LOZ042.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM