Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXUS61 KBUF 051120
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
620 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extreme Cold Watch was issued for western and north-central NY
this weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light lake effect snow will continue southeast and then south of
Lake Ontario through this morning.

2) Widespread light to moderate snowfall is expected Friday and
Friday night, and combined with gusty winds will support blowing and
drifting snow and poor visibility.

3) Light lake effect snow will develop Saturday and persist through
the weekend.

4) Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values return
for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Light lake effect snow will continue southeast and
then south of Lake Ontario through this morning.

Light lake effect snow found across much of the BUF CWA this morning
will shift to the south of Lake Ontario through the early morning
hours, where it will remain into the early afternoon. Snow is
expected to remain mostly on the light side as synoptic moisture and
equilibrium heights are limited compared to a more significant
event. Equilibrium heights mainly to around 4k feet will allow some
lake snow development. The best potential for snow will be through
the first few hours after daybreak as a trough drops south across
the region bringing some slightly better lift and moisture briefly.

Any lake effect snow south of Lake Ontario will scatter out during
the late morning to early afternoon as the trough tracks away from
the area, and drier air works into the region.

With thermal profiles mainly within the dgz, snow ratios will be
high resulting in light fluffy snow. Accumulations to an inch or two
along the Lake Ontario shoreline of Monroe County and southeast to a
large portion of Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. Outside of
these areas, an inch or less is expected for the rest of the areas
along and south of Lake Ontario.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread light to moderate snowfall is expected
Friday and Friday night, and combined with gusty winds will support
blowing and drifting snow and poor visibility.

A series of shortwave troughs will move south within a broader
trough across the Great Lakes region Friday through Friday night. An
area of low pressure will move across northern Ontario and Quebec
and an associated cold front will cross the Great Lakes region.
Initially, warm air advection will take place across the forecast
area Friday morning. Large scale forcing and increasing moisture
will support light snow to move into western NY Friday morning. Snow
will slowly expand eastward and about an inch or two of snow is
possible across far western NY, with amounts 2-3 inches possible
across the Chautauqua Ridge. Further east, light snow and little to
no accumulation is expected through Friday afternoon.

The main story will be the passage of an arctic cold front across
the forecast area Friday night. Cold air and moisture will deepen
along and behind the front and snow will intensify overnight. A
lowering of the tropopause to 600mb coupled with a 35-40kt low-level
jet in a well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty winds through
Saturday. Gusty winds and dry snow will create blowing snow and poor
visibility. Moisture will pull away quickly, with falling snow
tapering off from west to east late Friday night through Saturday
morning. Gusty winds and dry, fresh snow will continue to support
blowing snow through Saturday. A widespread 2 to 4 inches of snow is
expected, with the potential for 4 to 6 across the Chautauqua Ridge
Friday through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Light lake effect snow will develop Saturday and
persist through the weekend.

The core of the coldest air will move overhead Saturday with 850mb
temperatures between -25C and -29C. Northwest flow and lingering low-
level moisture will support lake effect snow showers south of Lake
Ontario, with the main focus across the Rochester Metro to the
Finger Lakes region Saturday through Saturday night. Moisture will
pull away and high pressure will build into the region from the
west. Snow showers will commence through Sunday. An additional few
inches of snow are possible where the most persistent band set up.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values
return for the weekend.

Confidence is increasing that dangerously cold temperatures and
wind chill values will return for the weekend. An arctic cold front
will move across the region Friday night. Cold air advection and
gusty winds will cause temperatures and, subsequently wind chills to
plummet into Saturday morning. Temperatures will struggle to get
through the single digits, and above 0F across the higher
terrain Saturday. Wind chill values may reach -25F or colder
late Friday night through Saturday across western NY. Wind
chills will be likely improve across the lower elevations
including the Buffalo Metro and Rochester Metro later Saturday
through Saturday night. Wind chill values may reach -30F east of
Lake Ontario Saturday through Sunday morning. For these
reasons, an Extreme Cold Watch was issued for the entire
forecast area with the increased risk of frostbite and
hypothermia this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Light lake effect snow across much of the area early this morning
will shift southeast of Lake Ontario and then south of the lake
through the morning hours. Within the light snow, MVFR VSBYs are
predominant, with some brief IFR possible at times. CIGs for most
areas (regardless of snow or not) are MVFR with some lowering
to/near IFR across the higher terrain. There may be some breaks in
the clouds across the terminals to VFR at times, with the best
potential for this at KART.

Light lake and upslope snow will linger south of Lake Ontario
today, but will scatter out by the late morning and early
afternoon. The best chance for light snow will be along most of
the south shore of Lake Ontario and for areas east of Rochester.
But all 4 TAF sites south of Lake Ontario will have the
potential for at least some snow early. Mainly higher end MVFR
and lower end VFR CIGs expected. Some higher terrain IFR will be
possible at times for areas south of Lake Ontario. East of Lake
Ontario with a northwest flow, more VFR conditions are expected
with less influence from the lake. Snow should become light
enough through the morning that any reductions in VSBYs early
will improve, but early VSBYs of lower end MVFR within the best
organized lake/upslope snow should improve through the morning.

Tonight, a mixture of MVFR/VFR CIGs expected through the first half
of the night, with the higher terrain mainly MVFR. Clouds will start
to fill in during the second half of the night with an approaching
system from the west. With this, widespread MVFR will is expected
for western terminals by daybreak. Some higher terrain spots south
of Buffalo will have CIGs approaching IFR by this time.


Outlook...

Friday through Friday night...Periods of IFR/LIFR in light to
moderate snow and blowing snow. Snow squalls and brief bursts of
1/4SM +SN possible Friday night along an arctic cold front.

Saturday through Sunday...Areas of IFR in lake effect snow showers
south of Lake Ontario.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
The next period of windy conditions will develop Friday and continue
Friday night through Saturday as a strong arctic cold front crosses
the eastern Great Lakes, producing higher end Small Craft Advisory
conditions that peak Friday night through Saturday on Lake Ontario.
The airmass will be very cold, and will likely result in freezing
spray on Lake Ontario as well. Winds and waves will subside later
Sunday as high pressure builds into the lower Great Lakes.

Of note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are now
ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday
     morning for NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...Hitchcock