Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

538
FXUS61 KBUF 100626
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
226 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing heat and humidity this week. Warmest heat indices
could reach the mid to upper 90s Thursday and Friday.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Friday
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing heat and humidity this week. Warmest
heat indices could reach the mid to upper 90s Thursday and
Friday.

Increasing heat and humidity is expected Thursday and Friday as a
ridge builds into the region. 850 mb temperatures will climb near
+18C and the combination of heat and humidity will support heat
index values in the lower to mid 90s, possibly even higher. Heat
headlines are possible for some locations during this time
period.

Cooler and more comfortable weather are expected across the region
behind a cold front this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Friday evening.

An anomalously moist airmass will remain over the region this
morning. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will move east
into western New York early this morning, with heavy downpours
as the primary impact through this morning. Due to dry
antecendant conditions, the flood risk is low tonight. Coverage
will decrease form west to east through the day, as subsidence
and dryer air builds into western New York. A westerly flow will
also stabilize areas east of Lake Erie. Showers and a few
thunderstorms may form along the convergence of lake breezes
south of Lake Ontario this afternoon. Profiles indicated an
uptick in shear with an isolated risk of strong/severe storms,
mainly across the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario this
afternoon. Any heavy showers or thunderstorms will produce heavy
rain. There is a non-zero threat of localized flooding if
training storms materialize.

A very moist airmass will remain in place Thursday. Scattered
convection expected during the morning, with heavy downpours as
the primary impact. Impressive instability developing by
afternoon will lead to additional convection, mainly on lake
breeze or convergence boundaries inland from the lakes. Weak
shear profiles gives lower confidence of severe potential.

A trough will deepen across the Great Lakes region Friday. A warm,
moist airmass will reside ahead of an approaching strong cold front.
The combination of an increasing wind field and a unstable airmass
will support the potential for strong thunderstorms across the
region. Another risk from any heavy showers or thunderstorms will be
heavy rain, as PWAT values are expected to exceed 1.5", which is
above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Drier air is
expected to move into the region for the start of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front will push east across the area early this morning
bringing deteriorating flight conditions. Flight conditions should
deteriorate to widespread MVFR/IFR (LIFR interior Southern Tier)
Cigs from west to east through 12z, with the worst conditions
expected across the western NY terminals. An uptick in shower and
isolated thunderstorm activity expected after 09z with brief
periods of MVFR/IFR within any heavier showers/storms.

Widespread IFR/MVFR CIGS will remain in place through midday today,
while scattered showers and storms persist as a mid level trough
moves in from the west. As the mid level trough starts to exit the
area this afternoon, so will the widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity across western NY, with improvement back to VFR from KROC
westward this afternoon. MVFR is expected to linger east of Lake
Ontario through the end of the day.

Outlook...

Tonight through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier
showers or storms. Also, lower CIGS possible during the overnights
(Wednesday night and Thursday night) across the higher terrain.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds will continue this morning at generally 10 knots or
less. Winds will turn more southwest by this afternoon with a
general southwest to west flow remaining through Thursday
night. Wind speeds likely remaining 15 knots or less with only
the expectation of some light chop with waves 2 feet or less.

The passage of a cold front Friday could bring a brief uptick to
winds, but headlines are not anticipated.

The passage of several waves of low pressure will generate a few
thunderstorms over the lakes at times through the end of the work
week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA