Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

690
FXUS61 KBUF 241907
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
207 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast snowfall amounts have increased slightly Sunday afternoon
through Sunday might.

Small changes were made in lake effect snow off Lake Ontario through
mid-week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread heavy snow expected Sunday through Sunday night, with
wrap around lake enhanced snow through Monday.

2) Cold weather will continue through next week.

3) Lake enhancement will bring a continued threat for accumulating
snow Monday, albeit with lesser intensity and coverage compared
to Sunday.

4) Following the widespread snow, moderate to heavy lake effect snow
is likely east and southeast of Lake Ontario through at least
midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread heavy snow expected Sunday through Sunday
night, with wrap around lake enhanced snow through Monday.

A mid-level trough over the Canadian Rockies this afternoon, will
become amplified as it moves across the Plains and phases with a
southern stream trough through Sunday night. A developing area of
low pressure across the Tennessee Valley will tap into Gulf moisture
as it moves just west of the Appalachians through Sunday. A
secondary low will develop off the Carolina coast and move northward
with another plume of moisture. These systems will continue to
deepen and eventually phase off the southern New England coast by
Monday.

Strong moisture advection and isentropic lift will lift across the
forecast area tonight, and snow will move from south to north across
western NY late tonight and continue northward across the eastern
Lake Ontario region Sunday morning-afternoon. Impressive dynamics
will occur across the region, as a strong upper level jet moves
north of the region Sunday. As the favorable right entrance region
moves over the forecast area, strong frontogenesis with anomalously
high moisture content will move towards the Northeast. Moderate to
heavy snow will spread across western and north-central NY, with
snowfall rates averaging an inch per hour Sunday afternoon through
Sunday night. As the surface low moves off the coast Sunday night,
the strong dynamics will retreat to the east, and snowfall intensity
will decrease from the western Southern Tier into western NY. Wrap-
around moisture and a cold column will maintain light to moderate
snow across the forecast area through Sunday night.

Forecast soundings show a well saturated column in the DGZ for most
of the area Sunday through Sunday night. Snow ratios are expected to
be 20:1 so expect a dry, fluffy snowfall. As you move eastward,
warmer air in the mid-level levels may reduce snowfall efficiently,
and snowfall ratios may fall to 15:1. Overall, this shouldn`t limit
accumulation due to the abundant moisture content. The bulk of the
steady, heavy snow will be from 1PM Sunday to 1AM Monday. Lake
enhancement will result in heavy snow continuing along the southern
shore of Lake Ontario into Oswego county Monday through Monday
night.

A widespread area of 10-18" of snowfall is expected across western
and north-central NY, with the higher end amounts 12-18" from the
southern shore of Lake Ontario to the southern Tug Hill region
Sunday through Monday night. Snowfall amounts increased slightly on
the northwest of the expansive precipitation shield due to increases
in the forecast QPF.

Easterly winds 10 to 15 mph are expected through the event and will
limit blowing and drifting snow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold weather will continue through next week.

A very cold airmass is situated across the eastern Great Lakes
region today. Winds have diminished which is resulting in improving
wind chill temperatures, however cold wind chills and temperatures
will remain across the region well into next week.

The next period of dangerous wind chills (10 to 20 below zero) is
Monday night into Tuesday morning across far western NY. A Cold
Weather Advisory may be needed for this time period. Be sure to
cover all exposed skin if you must be outside for a long duration.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Lake enhancement will bring a continued threat for accumulating
snow Monday, albeit with lesser intensity and coverage compared
to Sunday.

By Monday, the massive winter storm will have transferred nearly all
of its energy to the strengthening secondary low off the East Coast.
This low will be initially situated off the coast of Cape Cod by
daybreak, then slowly drift by the Gulf of Maine before moving east
along the Canadian Maritimes through Monday night. The western
fringe of its large precipitation shield may still be over the North
Country Monday morning, though general wrap around snow showers will
likely continue across much of the region through the day Monday.
The airmass over the Great Lakes will remain rather frigid in the
wake of the system, with northwest flow and residual synoptic
moisture allowing for lake enhanced bands of snow to form downwind
of Lake Ontario. Highest confidence in a few additional inches of
accumulation will be along the shoreline north and east of Rochester.

Relatively lower confidence in the snow potential east of Lake Erie.
Satellite imagery the past couple of days indicates a rapid
expansion and thickening of the ice on the lake, but still a fair
amount of thinner ice on the eastern end of the lake between Long
Point and the Buffalo Harbor. This ice will dampen the response off
the lake to some extent, but not completely mute it. There is also
the possibility of a Lake Huron and/or a Georgian Bay band pivoting
around and locally enhancing the snowfall south of Buffalo. As of
now, snowfall totals are a couple of inches higher from the
Chautauqua Ridge to the Boston Hills area.

The more widespread snow shower coverage and number of lake enhanced
bands should diminish Monday evening and overnight as the flow veers
and EQL heights come down with the passage of an 850mb ridge.


KEY MESSAGE 4...Following the widespread snow, moderate to heavy
lake effect snow is likely east and southeast of Lake Ontario
through at least midweek.

Despite the passage of the mid-level ridge mentioned in Key Message
#3 Monday night, 850mb temps will remain quite cold while residual
synoptic moisture remains within the crest of the ridge. This
moisture will remain over Lake Ontario and as winds begin to veer,
the increasing fetch and convergence will allow a more focused band
of snow to develop in the vicinity of Wayne/N. Cayuga/S. Oswego
counties Monday evening. This mobile band will then drift northward
to the Tug and further intensify overnight, with snowfall rates of 1-
2" per hour likely. Could see snowfall rates briefly exceeding 2"
per hour for a time, though current forecast snowfall remains modest
as the movement of the band should help limit more significant
accumulations in any one area.

The next sharp trough will then pivot through the Great Lakes
Tuesday into Tuesday night, forcing a decaying clipper low across
southern Ontario and Quebec. The main lake effect area off Lake
Ontario should remain across much of Jefferson County Tuesday in a
weakened state from the previous night as shear increases from a sfc
high cresting over the region. The clipper should then force the
band to get shunted back southward across the Tug and into the same
general vicinity where it began, though there remains higher
uncertainty in regards to band strength as this occurs. Note that
this clipper low may also bring more widespread light snow to areas
outside of the lake effect Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Wednesday onwards, confidence is much lower as to the nature of the
lake effect off Ontario as a more robust upper level trough moves
back over the Great Lakes. This said, there is little doubt that it
will remain cold with the lake mostly ice-free, which in conjunction
with the increased moisture and forcing, moderate to heavy lake
enhanced snow will remain a threat east and/or southeast of the lake
through at least Thursday, though possibly beyond.

Off Lake Erie...As alluded to in Key Message #3, ice cover on the
lake is increasing and thickening which will likely hamper the lake
response. With no signs of this cold airmass letting up much over
the next 7 days, this trend will continue, though the degree to
which it will weaken the lake response remains uncertain. Therefore,
chances for snow are generally higher east of the lake through the
week, but snowfall intensity remains to be seen.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very cold airmass will continue across the eastern Great Lakes
region through tonight. A northwest flow has maintained weak lake
effect snow showers near the lakeshores against the western Southern
Tier and southern shore of Lake Ontario. This will continue to
produce MVFR/IFR conditions at KJHW and KROC today. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions are expected across the region.

Attention turns to the large area of low pressure that will move to
our south Sunday through Monday. A widespread heavy snow will move
into the eastern Great Lakes region from south and north late
Saturday night through Sunday morning. Flight conditions will lower
to MVFR/IFR from south to north across western NY Sunday morning,
reaching the eastern Lake Ontario early Sunday afternoon. Conditions
will fall to IFR/LIFR as moderate to heavy snow expands across the
region Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...IFR/LIFR with moderate to heavy snow.

Monday...LIFR in widespread moderate to heavy snow, diminishing
later in the day.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Localized lake effect snow and IFR southeast
of Lake Ontario.

Thursday...Chance of snow, locally heavier near the Lakes. IFR or
below is possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Light wind and little wave action will continue on Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario through tonight.

A light easterly flow will begin across the Lakes Sunday in response
to a large area of low pressure south of the region. East-northeast
flow will continue through Sunday night, before winds increase out
of the northwest by late Monday. Small Craft conditions are likely
on the western side of Lake Ontario Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Buffalo
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 24                         -11 (1976)                         1(1963)
January 25                         -14 (1884)                         5(1884)

Rochester
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 24                         -10 (1963)                         2(1963)
January 25                         -6  (1945)                         7(1884)

Watertown
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 24                         -30 (2014) RECORD BROKEN           0(2004)
January 25                         -18 (2007)                         3(1992)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     NYZ003>008.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/PP
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK
CLIMATE...HSK