Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

259
FXUS61 KBUF 070706
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
206 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continuing to monitor the threat for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon for western NY.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will bring widespread rain showers and a few strong
thunderstorms with gusty winds to western NY today.

2) Next chance for rain/storms arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday,
before possibly ending as some mixed precipitation or snow.

3) There remains a low-end threat for flooding through next week,
mainly across the North Country, as a result of above normal
temperatures and multiple rounds of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will bring widespread rain showers and
a few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds to western NY today.

WV Satellite imagery this morning indicates a positively tilted mid-
level trough moving across the north-central Plains, with leading
shortwave energy moving across the Great Lakes. The main trough
will make it into the the Great Lakes region later this
afternoon, then cross east of the forecast area late tonight
into Sunday morning. At the surface, strengthening cyclogenesis
will result in a deepening trough from the Midwest to Southern
Quebec that will slide eastward with notably strong kinematics,
forcing a 55-65kt southwesterly LLJ to move overhead this
afternoon and evening. This will result in multiple rounds of
showers and even a few thunderstorms across the forecast area
through early tonight, some of which could be strong to severe.

The first batch of showers will be early this morning as the leading
shortwave energy moves into WNY and forces an initial weak boundary
into the region. The decaying line of convection could contain a few
elevated rumbles of thunder though satellite/radar trends indicate
this probability is low. Thereafter, CAMs are relatively split on
the amount of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity lingering
through the morning hours. In any case, the main focus
continues to be on the expected line of showers and stronger
thunderstorms this afternoon as a pre-frontal trough and
stronger LLJ energy arrive ahead of a cold front.

SPC`s Outlook for severe weather today remains largely unchanged
from the previous outlooks, with a Slight Risk (2/5) from roughly
the Genesee Valley westward, and a Marginal Risk (1/5) further east.
This is largely driven by the strong dynamic forcing that will be in
play, with the LLJ bring impressive 0-6km bulk shear values of 45-
50kts along the pre-frontal trough. Low-level wind profiles are also
problematic across WNY with veering winds in the 0-1km layer
producing up to 200 m2/s2 of SRH. HREF probabilities of STP values >
1 are around 60-70% for the western Southern Tier as well, so can`t
completely rule out an isolated tornado with any bowing line
segments that align perpendicular to the 0-3km shear vectors. All
this said, instability remains a potential limiting factor as MUCAPE
values likely top out around 500J/kg, and the amount of surface-
based instability will remain dependent on the evolution of upstream
convection earlier in the day across Ohio, as well as any isolated
development across WNY. There is also the breezy southwest wind
coming off icy Lake Erie to contend with, which will likely add a
high degree of CIN to the environment downwind of the lake. Thinking
this influence will likely be greatest around Buffalo and northward
towards the Niagara Falls area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Next chance for rain/storms arrives Tuesday night
and Wednesday, before possibly ending as some mixed precipitation or
snow.

A dry period expected Sunday through Tuesday with a day to day
warming trend. The next chance for rain/storms arrives Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Current guidance suggesting that a northern stream
shortwave may try to phase with a southern stream closed low locked
into the four corners region. This wave then moves eastward into the
region during the Tuesday night and Wednesday time period. Ensembles
are in decent agreement on this solution and bringing chances for
rain and possible thunderstorms to the region. Deterministic
guidance pointing to strong high pressure over eastern Canada
possibly forcing a backdoor cold front south into the region
Wednesday night and Thursday. This could bring cooler temperatures
and a potential risk for mixed precipitation or snow, but there is a
fair amount of disagreement among long range guidance on how far
south this front gets.

KEY MESSAGE 3...There remains a low-end threat for flooding through
next week, mainly across the North Country, as a result of above
normal temperatures and multiple rounds of rain.

Above normal temperatures along with long range ensemble guidance
and WPC forecast showing an additional 1-2.5" of QPF across the
eastern Great Lakes over the next 7 days. This pattern will lead to
rises on most area waterways with an increased threat for flooding
as the rainfall combines with accelerated snowmelt runoff.

Based on the limited amount of SWE and antecedent water levels being
low, the threat for flooding should be very limited for the
waterways across WNY. A handful of creeks are forecast to crest in
Action stage, though are expected to remain below flood stage this
weekend.

A different story east of Lake Ontario as recent SWE surveys have
measured over 10" of liquid in the snowpack across the Tug Hill.
This could lead minor flooding along the Black River and other
rivers (Beaver, Independence, and Moose) that drain the western
Adirondacks and Tug Hill Plateau. MMEFS guidance suggests water
levels on the Black River should continue to rise through the
weekend, cresting near the middle of next week. Still some
discrepancy in regards to maximum crest height on the Black River
(Watertown and Boonville), though aside from the typically bullish
NAEFS, there is only a low (25% chance or less) chance to reach
flood stage. While a slow rise to Action stage appears to be the
most likely scenario, will need to continue monitoring trends.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A deepening trough of surface low pressure to the west will bring
several rounds of convective showers and thunderstorms at times to
the region today. There remains some LIFR cigs well inland from the
lakes where low stratus is trapped under a departing area of high
pressure, though conditions across much of Western NY
(KBUF/KIAG/KJHW and possibly KROC) will deteriorate to MVFR and IFR
after 07z as the first batch of rain moves in from the west.

Following this initial batch, conditions may improve to VFR/MVFR
after about 10z and through the remainder of the morning. A strong
cold front moving in from the west will then result in a line of
showers and storms after 18z,which will then move eastward through
the early evening. Southwesterly wind gusts ahead of this front may
reach 30-35 kts at KBUF and KIAG, with 25-30kts elsewhere. Storms
along this line may approach severe levels across Western NY with
locally strong wind gusts. Stable air blowing across Lake Erie may
prevent these from being surface-based from KBUF to KIAG in
particular.

Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR/IFR becoming VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers
Tuesday.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...IFR/MVFR in another period of rain
showers and perhaps rumble of thunder.

&&

.MARINE...
Behind a departing area of high pressure, and ahead of a digging
shortwave trough southerly winds will increase through the day today
ahead of a cold front. These winds, likely to reach SCA on the
eastern waters of Lake Ontario...will also direct the higher wave
heights towards the Canadian waters.

These winds will become a bit more southwesterly through the day
ahead of a cold front...with waves increasing and possibly
necessitating the westward expansion of any SCA to include the
entire Lake Ontario waters.

The winds will veer to westerly behind the cold front this afternoon
and tonight, with winds slowly diminishing through Sunday morning
such that waves heights will fall below small craft thresholds.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 5 AM EST Sunday
         for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 AM
         EST Sunday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Sunday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PP/TMA
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP/Thomas