Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

452
FXUS61 KBUF 221924
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
224 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extreme Cold Watch has been upgraded to a Extreme Cold Warning
from 7PM Friday to 1PM Saturday

Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all Western and North
Central New York from late Friday afternoon and evening through
Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Localized heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario and Lake
Erie through Friday, along with gusty winds and significant blowing
and drifting snow.

2) Dangerously cold airmass will arrive Friday and last into
Sunday morning.

3) Confidence continues to increase in a period of widespread
and potentially heavy snow late Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Localized heavy lake effect snow east of Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie through Friday, along with gusty winds and
significant blowing and drifting snow.

A broad mid-level trough will remain across the entire Great Lakes
through this entire period. At the sfc...low pressure found over
western Quebec will send an Arctic front through Friday which will
bring a down right `FRIDGID` air mass to `ALL` of Western and North-
Central New York into the weekend. Along with the frigid airmass we
will see significant lake effect snows east of both lakes,
especially off Lake Ontario where we will likely 2 to 3 feet across
the Tug Hill Plateau through Friday.

Off Lake Erie...

Ice coverage is very thin with a decent amount of chunk ice/sheets
found on the western end of the lake across the lake per latest
visible Sat. That said...there is still plenty of `open` waters to
support a response. Given that...a lake band should re-orgainze or
become better organized late this evening/tonight into Friday
morning, with boundary layer flow generally WSW but there will be
subtle variations over time forcing several north/south
oscillations. Expect the band to have the greatest residence time
across southern Erie and Wyoming counties, including some of the
Buffalo Southtowns. Accumulations may reach or exceed 1 foot in the
most persistent bands across Southern Erie and Wyoming counties,
with lesser accumulations across far northern/western Chautauqua
County and the northwest corner of Cattaraugus County. Accumulating
snow may also brush the southern portion of the northern Erie County
zone (including the more densely populated southern and eastern
suburbs of Buffalo) and southern Genesee County.

Off Lake Ontario...

A lake effect band has already developed east of the lake across the
Tug Hill, and stretching inland across Lewis county. We are even
seeing some `lighting` embedded within the most intense portion of
the band. This band will be heavy much of the time through Friday,
with snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour. Again...subtle variations in
wind direction will force the band to oscillate north/south multiple
times, with the northernmost extent reaching near Watertown and the
southern end of the oscillations extending into far northern Oswego
County. Snowfall amounts of 2-3 feet will be possible across the
central and northern Tug Hill Plateau, with a somewhat larger
footprint of 8-16" surrounding that.

As we head into Friday, an Arctic front will approach the Lower
Lakes which will begin the southward movement of the bands. Once
this occurs, we will see lake snows become focused southeast of
both lakes. Accumulations off Lake Erie at this point will diminish
and with the incoming drier air begin to diminish all together Friday
night. A little different of a story might occur off Lake Ontario,
where upstream aid might allow for some decent accumulations
southeast of the lake. The best chance for accumulating snows will
potentially be found east of the Rochester metro area across Wayne,
N. Cayuga into S. Oswego where we additional headlines might be
needed. Outside of the lake snows we will likely see widespread to
numerous snow showers, with some minor accumulations.

Additionally...wind gusts will reach up to 45 mph at times through
Friday. This will produce blowing and drifting snow, especially in
lake effect areas.

An Arctic front will cross the Lower Lakes Friday bringing with
it a `Frigid` airmass and dangerously cold wind chills across
the Lower Lakes. As was noted...highs on Friday will occur very
early then fall through the day into the single digits. More on
that below....


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold airmass will arrive Friday and
last into Sunday morning.

An anomalously strong (+3SD) Arctic high of around 1052mb across the
Northern Plains on Friday will gradually expand eastward across the
Great Lakes through Saturday night while weakening with time. The
airmass just ahead of this feature will be extremely cold with 850mb
temps as low as -40C. While it should slightly moderate as the high
weakens, confidence remains high in a period of dangerously cold
weather setting in across the region with its arrival on Friday. The
coldest period will be Friday night, when some clearing of skies and
calming winds across the North Country (namely Lewis/Jefferson) will
cause sfc temperatures to plummet down to near -20F, with wind
chills down to near -30F. Further southward where more cloud cover
is expected and with flow off the (relatively) warmer lakes, wind
chills will not be as extreme but still very frigid in the -10F to -
20F range. As such, Extreme Cold Warnings have been issued for
Jefferson & Lewis with this update, with the rest of the CWA under a
Cold Weather Advisory.

Temperatures will remain very cold into Saturday and Saturday night,
with yet another reinforcing swath of frigid air Monday night,
though headline-worthy wind chills appear unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Confidence continues to increase in a period of
widespread and potentially heavy snow late Saturday night
through Monday.

A phasing shortwave/coupled upper level jet pattern east of the
Rockies will result in a complex and major winter storm that will
impact an impressive swath of the Lower 48. As of this writing,
Winter Storm Watches or Warnings extend all the way from eastern
Arizona to New England. Ensemble systems are in relatively good
agreement on the general evolution of this storm, though subtle
differences in the exact track and transfer of energy to the East
Coast introduce some forecast uncertainty.

For our area, the frigid airmass around the Arctic high over
Southern Quebec will ensure the precip type remains all snow. Strong
upper level divergence overlaid with frontogenetic forcing on the
system`s northern periphery will likely enhance snowfall and SLRs
however, which could very well lead to a widespread heavy snow
across the region. This said, the nature of potential deformation
banding and lake enhancement remains uncertain. Despite a
northeasterly sfc flow, there appears to be quite a bit of
directional shear from the high over the lakes which could end up
directing the bulk of the lake enhancement from Lake Ontario into
Canada. Will maintain the Watch for now until some of these details
come into better focus.

Behind this system, the broad scale longwave pattern across North
America will struggle to change much, with continued frigid air
flowing back across the Great Lakes. This will likely cause
additional lake effect on the backside of this system throughout the
week, though in addition to uncertainty in the general flow
direction, the rapidly increasing ice coverage on Lake Erie could
very well lead to a muted response downwind of the lake.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Periodic oscillations and disruption of the lake effect snow bands
will bring IFR to LIFR conditions to terminals northeast of the
lakes to include KBUF,KIAG, KROC and KART. All other terminals
will see low end VFR to MVFR with some snow showers at times
bringing lower cigs/vsbys through tonight.

Additionally...winds will continue to gust up to 40 knots at times
through Friday. This will result in blowing and drifting snow on
airfields where fresh snow is on the ground.

Heavy lake effect snow to continue east of Lake Ontario Friday
morning ahead of the Arctic front, with local LIFR/VLIFR, especially
south of KART. With the arrival/passage of the front, lake effect
snows will shove south bringing localized LIFR southeast of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario and then weakens. Winds will continue to
remain gusty with blowing and drifting of snow.

Outlook...

Friday night...Localized lake effect snow and IFR southeast of Lake
Ontario, including KROC.

Saturday...Local IFR in lake effect snow showers southeast of the
lakes in the morning, mainly VFR in the afternoon.

Sunday through Monday...Widespread LIFR with moderate to heavy snow.

Tuesday...Localized lake effect snow east of both lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW gales will continue on Lake Ontario through Friday, with
sustained winds of 30 knots on Lake Erie. Winds will become
northwest Friday night following an arctic cold front, then rapidly
diminish late Friday night through Saturday as high pressure builds
into the lower Great Lakes. Low pressure will bring the next round
of Small Craft conditions on area lakes Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Buffalo
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 23                         -11 (1976)                         5(1976)
January 24                         -11 (1976)                         1(1963)
January 25                         -14 (1884)                         5(1884)

Rochester
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 23                         -14 (1976)                         5(1976)
January 24                         -10 (1963)                         2(1963)
January 25                         -6  (1945)                         7(1884)

Watertown
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 23                         -31 (1976)                        -1(1976)
January 24                         -30 (2014)                         0(2004)
January 25                         -18 (2007)                         3(1992)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for NYZ001>006-010-011-013-014.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     evening for NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ006>008.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday for
     NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ010-011-
     019-020.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ012-085.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/PP
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
CLIMATE...HSK