Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

773
FXUS61 KBUF 061016
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
616 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and scattered thunderstorms for most of the area today
with the exception of the North Country. Some storms may contain
locally heavy rainfall.

2) Drier weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday with a gradual
warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and scattered thunderstorms for most of the
area today with the exception of the North Country. Some storms may
contain locally heavy rainfall.

A weak mid level trough will continue to drift slowly southeast
across the eastern Great Lakes today through tonight. At the
surface, a weak/diffuse low will move from the Ohio Valley today
towards the Mid Atlantic by Tuesday, with an inverted trough
extending northward across western PA and southwest NY. Weak large
scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will combine with
moisture transport and frontogenesis north of the surface low to
support another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms today.

Scattered showers early this morning across the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes will gradually expand in coverage from late morning
through the afternoon, and also expand northward towards the south
shore of Lake Ontario as deep moisture gradually drifts north ahead
of the approaching trough. Extensive cloud cover will limit
instability, but just enough may develop to support widely scattered
thunderstorms or heavy convective showers without thunder this
afternoon. The rain will reach peak coverage this afternoon, then
gradually diminish to scattered showers this evening with the loss
of diurnal instability. A few scattered showers may persist
overnight especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes as
the mid level trough continues to drift slowly east. Meanwhile, the
North Country will stay dry today through tonight farther removed
from deeper moisture and forcing.

There is a risk of locally heavy rainfall today through this evening
with PWAT values around 1.75", tall/skinny CAPE profiles, and weak
low/mid level flow resulting in slow storm motion. Similar to
yesterday, small heavy convective showers may develop across the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes and become anchored on terrain
features in low level northeast upslope flow. The main risk of
localized heavy rainfall will be across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes. No widespread flooding is
expected, but there is a low end risk of isolated flash flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday with
a gradual warming trend.

Tuesday, the mid level trough will continue to drift slowly east
across NY/PA and into New England by evening. Deeper moisture will
drift towards the east coast and away from our region. A few
scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm may linger across the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, but otherwise the rest of the area
will be dry with increasing amounts of sunshine.

High pressure will settle over the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night
through Wednesday with dry weather returning areawide. Mainly dry
weather will likely continue through most of Thursday, although an
approaching cold front may bring an increasing chance of a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the day, mainly inland
away from stable lake shadows.

Temperatures will trend above average through the middle of the
week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s for lower elevations away
from lake influences by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers this morning across the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes will expand in coverage late this morning through the
afternoon, and also expand northward towards the south shore of Lake
Ontario. The rain will reach peak coverage this afternoon with
numerous showers and a few scattered thunderstorms for most of the
area with the exception of the North Country. Any heavier showers
and storms will bring temporary VSBY restrictions. MVFR CIGS will
continue today across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes, and may expand northward to the lake plains this
afternoon as the low levels saturate. Spotty IFR CIGS will continue
across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier.

Tonight, the widespread showers will gradually diminish in coverage
this evening, although scattered showers will continue overnight
especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. CIGS/VSBY will
be mainly VFR for the lower elevation lake plains, but areas of
MVFR/IFR will continue across the higher terrain of the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes.

Outlook...

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR CIGS across the higher terrain of the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes in the morning. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible across the Finger Lakes, otherwise mainly dry
and VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms
inland from the lakes in the afternoon.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled just south of the lower
Great Lakes through Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build
southeast across Quebec today, tightening the pressure gradient.
Northeast winds will increase to near 15 knots at times on Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie, producing a moderate chop on the lakes today
through Tuesday. Winds and waves are expected to remain a little
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Light winds will return Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure
settles over the eastern Great Lakes. Southwest winds will increase
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front, with choppy conditions
developing on both lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock