Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

940
FXUS61 KBUF 130945
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
545 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Windy and warm today with a few showers at times.

2) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the
work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Windy and warm today with a few showers at times.

A mid level shortwave and associated surface trough will cross the
eastern Great Lakes this morning. A period of large scale ascent in
the DPVA ahead of the mid level trough and moisture convergence near
the surface trough will support an area of mainly light showers
moving from west to east across the area. The rain will only last
for a few hours at any one location, crossing Western NY this
morning and the eastern Lake Ontario region later this morning
through early to mid afternoon.

Following the first batch of rain, the lake plains will become
mainly dry this afternoon as stable lake shadows expand ENE of the
lakes. A few more scattered showers may develop through the
afternoon and evening away from the lake shadows, mainly across the
Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario. There may be just enough instability to support an isolated
weak thunderstorm or two, but coverage will be very sparse.

Most of the area will be dry through the majority of tonight.
Another low level jet segment, increasing moisture transport and
warm advection, and elevated instability over the central Great
Lakes will approach by daybreak Tuesday. This will support an
increasing chance of showers and a few thunderstorms by Tuesday
morning.

A strong 50-60 knot low level jet will remain overhead this morning
before diminishing to 40-45 knots this afternoon. The strong winds
will partially mix down to the surface with some diurnal mixing, but
overall poor lapse rates in cloud cover and showers will prevent
full mixing of stronger winds from aloft. Expect gusts in the 30-40
mph range in most areas, and up to 45 mph in the normally windy
locations from the Niagara Frontier to Rochester. Winds will quickly
diminish early this evening as the low level jet moves away.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through much of the work week.

Large scale upper level trough will be evolving across the western
CONUS as we head into Tuesday. This will allow at least some
amplification of an eastern CONUS ridge with the center of the upper
high located over the eastern Gulf, where it will remain nearly
stationary through much of the upcoming work week before getting
suppressed a bit further south late in the work week as a
stronger/more amplified upper level trough crosses the eastern
CONUS. Eastern ridge will be somewhat flat and will provide the
conduit for ill-timed pieces of weak shortwave energy to eject out
of the base of the western trough and move northeast along the
periphery of the eastern ridge, which unfortunately looks to be
right over or very near the lower Great Lakes region. Meanwhile at
the surface, a generally west-to-east oriented quasi-stationary
surface boundary will linger somewhere near the NY/Canadian border,
acting as a conduit for surface waves to travel along as they make
their way northeast across the CONUS. These waves of low pressure
will also cause subtle north/south oscillations of the surface
boundary as they approach, then exit the region.

The exact position of the surface boundary and timing of shortwave
energy aloft will play a large role in our weather this week. With
that said, the surface boundary does look like it will remain close
to or right over New York State for the Tuesday through at least
Wednesday night or Thursday timeframe. Model runs over the past
couple of cycles showing the ingredients in place for the
possibility of severe weather, especially now that we`re getting
into the hi-res window. This will ultimately depend on the location
of the surface boundary and timing of surface waves and/or shortwave
energy aloft. Close proximity of surface boundary makes for a less
favorable environment for severe weather as persistent cloud cover
and showers will limit instability during the peak heating hours.
That said, if the front moves just far enough north allowing the
clouds to break, along with shortwave energy moving across the area
during peak heating, then chances for severe storms would get much
better. PWATs will average around 1.25" which will allow for
localized heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms that do develop.
Areawide basin average rainfall amounts look to fall in the 1.00" to
2.00" range through Thursday, so although within bank rises will
likely be observed on creeks and rivers, the overall threat for more
widespread flooding remains low.

One other aspect will be the warm and even somewhat humid conditions
that we will experience much of this week, with the higher humidity
piece the more unusual element during a mid-April warmup. Unlike our
neighbors to the south who may experience record or near-record
daily highs this week, more persistent cloudiness and showers will
likely limit daily high temperatures to the 70s for most areas, with
record highs for all three of our climate sites in the 80s. However,
this will also limit our daily diurnal temperature range, with
overnight lows very mild by mid April standards. In fact, although
it looks like we may not break any daily high temperature records,
record warm minimum records will be challenged.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong 50-60 knot low level jet will remain in place this morning
before diminishing somewhat to 40-45 knots this afternoon. This will
initially produce low level wind shear early this morning before an
increase in boundary layer mixing allows for stronger surface wind
gusts. Expect gusts in the 25 to 35 knot range areawide, and locally
35-40 knots northeast of Lake Erie including KBUF, KIAG, and KROC.
Winds will quickly diminish early this evening.

A mid level shortwave and associated surface trough will cross the
eastern Great Lakes this morning, producing a few hours of mainly
light showers moving from west to east across the region. The more
organized showers will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region by early
to mid afternoon. The rest of the afternoon and evening will be
mainly dry on the lake plains, with a few additional scattered
showers developing across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier
and Finger Lakes, and east of Lake Ontario. There may be an isolated
weak thunderstorm or two this afternoon and evening, but coverage
will be very sparse. Tonight will be mainly dry, with the chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms then increasing again towards
Tuesday morning across Western NY as the remnants of upstream
convection approach.

CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR from west to east today following the
arrival of the rain, with some local IFR across higher terrain. IFR
stratus may also develop over and just east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario this afternoon through tonight as higher dewpoints cross the
cold lake waters and allow a marine layer to develop.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at times.
Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of a few showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong low level jet will remain in place today as a surface
trough crosses the lower Great Lakes. Gusty SSW winds will become
more WSW following the passage of the trough, with Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will
quickly diminish this evening as the low level jet moves away and
the boundary layer stabilizes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock