Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

829
FXUS61 KBUF 280535
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
135 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Inserted some PoPs east of Lake Ontario through this morning to
cover the potential for some widely scattered showers.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler today with a few scattered light showers possible this
morning.

2) A stronger cold front will move south across the area late Friday
through Friday night with a few showers possible, followed by below
average temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler today with a few scattered light showers
possible this morning.

The axis of a mid level trough will push southeastward across the
area through this morning. Attendant height falls/DCVA along with a
northerly upslope flow and increased low-mid level moisture will
bring the potential for some widely scattered/scattered light
showers in tandem with the trough passage...with chances for these
greatest across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes...and to a somewhat
lesser extent east of Lake Ontario. Marked drying and subsidence in
the wake of the trough axis will then bring a return to dry weather
and increasing sunshine this afternoon...though a notably cooler
airmass aloft will help keep highs largely confined to the mid 60s
across the lower elevations...and to the lower 60s across the higher
terrain/along the south shore of Lake Ontario.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front will move south across the
area late Friday through Friday night with a few showers possible,
followed by below average temperatures for the weekend.

A compact but vigorous closed low will rapidly dive southeastward
across Quebec during Friday and reach the Saint Lawrence Valley by
late afternoon...before pushing further southeast across New England
Friday night...then offshore during Saturday. While the best forcing
and moisture with this system still looks to remain largely to our
east across eastern New York and New England...our area will still
be subject to the passage of its trailing cold front late Friday and
Friday evening. While the guidance suite continues to struggle with
respect to the westward extent of any attendant showers...agree with
the previous shift that the frontal passage is worth some slight
chance/lower-end chance PoPs for a few light showers across western
New York...with somewhat more numerous showers expected across
the North Country which will be closer to the low track.

In the wake of this system...leftover moisture/cyclonic flow may
allow a few spotty showers to linger into Saturday morning across
the North Country...with dry weather otherwise returning as
expansive Canadian high pressure and drier air builds southeastward
across the Great Lakes. Otherwise the much cooler airmass following
behind the low will lead to highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s
in most areas Saturday (some 10 degrees or so below normal)...with
lows Saturday night then ranging from the upper 30s across the far
interior of the Southern Tier/North Country to the upper 40s along
the lakeshores. This will be followed by some recovery in temps
during Sunday as the airmass modifies...though temps will probably
still be a little below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR for the terminals overnight, though the exception will be
for the higher terrain of the Finger Lakes and toward the Western
Southern Tier where CIGs down to MVFR will be possible. Brief MVFR
CIGs may also occur at KROC as well. Lower CIGs will be associated
with a trough dropping south across the area along with a brief
increase in moisture. A few scattered showers will be possible, but
should remain mainly east of KBUF.

Thursday, showers across the higher terrain for areas south of Lake
Ontario should taper off through the morning hours. MVFR CIGs will
continue through the morning hours for the higher terrain south of
Lake Ontario, especially in the Finger Lakes region. Otherwise,
mainly VFR flight conditions are expected for the TAF terminals.
Wind gusts to around 20 MPH out of the north to northwest are
expected for the late morning and afternoon hours, with lighter
gusts expected for area closer to the lakes.

Thursday night, mainly VFR flight conditions with some high clouds
at times and winds weakening during the evening and overnight hours.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR to MVFR with scattered to
numerous showers late Friday into Friday night...with the greatest
potential for these across the North Country.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A leftover isolated morning shower or two
possible, mainly east of KART.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers across the North
Country late.

Monday...VFR/MVFR. 20-40% chances for showers inland from the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds in the 10-15 knot range will bring some chop to Lake
Ontario through early this morning, but winds and waves will remain
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

West to west-southwesterly winds will increase Friday out ahead of
another cold front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions becoming
likely on Lake Ontario, and possible across eastern Lake Erie. Winds
will then quickly veer to northerly behind the cold front Friday
night, before diminishing during Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...JJR/SW
MARINE...JJR