Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

505
FXUS61 KBUF 180019
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
819 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to cause poor air quality
tonight.

2) Thunderstorms chances increase Saturday with severe and heavy
rainfall risks.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to cause poor
air quality tonight.

Greatest concentration of wildfire smoke from Canada remain just
south and west of the region this afternoon. The upper level flow is
expected to become more westerly, allowing the smoke plume to return
across the region through tonight. Latest HRRR model showing
improving conditions near the surface, with most of the smoke
staying aloft. Air Quality Alerts remain in effect until midnight.

Key Message 2...Thunderstorms chances increase Saturday with severe
and heavy rainfall risks.

A potent shortwave trough will dig across the Great Lakes region
tonight through Saturday. Surface low pressure will deepen as it
moves from the Upper Great Lakes region to the Saint Lawrence River.
A warm front will lift northward into region later tonight with
scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. The region will
be in the warm sector Saturday with dewpoints climbing into the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The pressure gradient ahead of the surface
low and cold front will tighten and southwest winds will increase
across the region. A 30-40 knot low level jet will move overhead
with wind gusts up to 30 mph, and some gusts up to 40 mph possible
northeast of the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

There remains uncertainty in the coverage of convection in the
morning, however surface based instability is expected to develop
with the potential for 1000-2000 J/kg across western New York. A
line of storms may initially form on a pre-frontal trough inland
from the Lakes late Saturday morning, with a secondary line of
convection with the front Saturday afternoon through evening.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible during this time with
damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall as the main threats. An
isolated tornado is possible in a favorable environment ahead of a
surface low. The SPC has issued a Enhanced Risk (3 of 5) of
severe thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.

The threat for thunderstorms will come to an end behind the cold
front Saturday night. A few showers may linger into Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFs patches of smoke with MVFR/VFR visibility this
evening is expected to further decease as smoke thickens overnight
on a southwest wind flow.

While visibilities may dip to IFR at times overnight, they should
improve between 09Z and 15Z as thicker smoke moves to the northeast,
and rain showers form along the warm front and cleanse the airmass
some. A few thunderstorms are possible tomorrow morning along the
warm front as well.

Ahead of a cold front, a strengthening gradient wind will begin to
increase southwest surface gusts by late morning. While there will
likely be a brief period of dry weather and VFR flight conditions
after the morning convection, line segments of strong to severe
storms are likely to drop down across the TAF region, centered upon
19Z and 22Z...with lingering showers ending from west to east
through the final hours of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Restrictions likely in periodic showers and
thunderstorms. Lingering smoke possible.

Sunday and Monday...Fair weather and VFR expected. Lingering smoke
possible.

Monday night and Tuesday...Restrictions likely in periodic showers
and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible with Lingering showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Smoke from Canadian wildfires will result in periods of reduced
visibility on the lower Great Lakes through tonight. The worst of
the conditions will be this afternoon on Lake Erie, where a Dense
Smoke Advisory remains in effect through 4 PM for visibility down to
one nautical mile.

A warm front will pass across the lower Great Lakes late tonight
into Saturday with south-southwest winds freshening to 15-20 knots.
Waves will build to near 3 feet Saturday.

A cold front will move across the region late Saturday with west and
northwest winds developing behind it, with a period of small craft
conditions likely developing on Lake Erie Saturday. Better chances
for small craft conditons on Lake Ontario within the west and
northwest flow behind the front Saturday night.

Thunderstorms chances will increase starting early Saturday with the
warm front and be possible throughout the day until the cold front
moves through.

High pressure builds in Sunday and persists through Monday with
winds and waves subsiding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for
     NYZ001>007-010>014-019>021-085.
     Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
     Saturday night for NYZ008.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 4 AM EDT
         Sunday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 10 AM EDT
         Sunday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT
         Sunday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...TMA