Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

542
FXUS61 KBUF 312220
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
620 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased the probability of precipitation east and southeast of
Lake Ontario through this evening. Also, increased wind gusts
southeast of Lake Ontario this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A backdoor cold front is expected to bring showers and a possible
thunderstorm across the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region
through this evening.

2) Unsettled weather is expected to return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A backdoor cold front is expected to bring showers
and a possible thunderstorm across the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake
Ontario region through this evening.

A long wave trough will remain across the Northeast and northern
Atlantic Ocean through Monday. An embedded shortwave trough over
northern Quebec will move south across the eastern Great Lakes
region through tonight. Increasing moisture and an approaching cold
front will support the development of showers for northern New York
into the Finger Lakes region. Weak instability is expected to
develop inland from Lake Ontario today and a thunderstorm or two
can`t be ruled out. Spotty rainfall amounts of less than a
tenth of an inch are expected.

Low-level dry air and steepening low-level lapse rates ahead of the
cold front will support wind gusts up to 30 mph in any heavy
showers. Ahead of the front, wind gusts up to 25 mph will
continue from the Finger Lakes region to Oswego county this
afternoon. Patchy fog is possible across the Black River Valley
overnight.

Elsewhere across the forecast area, mid-high level clouds will
increase through the evening. Clouds will then diminish in coverage
overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather is expected to return next
weekend.

The upper level pattern suggests that the ridge will break down
next weekend. Multiple deterministic models indicate that
shortwave troughs will move near the forecast area. Deep
southerly flow from the Gulf may result in increased moisture
across the region, subsequently increasing the chances for
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. The highest
probability for any activity will be inland from the lakes
during peak heating.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR flight conditions are expected across western and north-
central NY through Monday morning. A backdoor cold front north of
the Saint Lawrence River will move south across the Eastern Lake
Ontario region through this evening. Mid to high level clouds will
increase across the entire region through this evening, with showers
possible from the Eastern Lake Ontario to the Finger Lakes region.
Weak instability may result in a thunderstorm through peak heating,
however the chance is very low it would impact KART.

Mid to high clouds will fade away overnight, with scattered low
stratus possible inland from Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A westerly flow will continue on the Lakes. A cold front will
move across Lake Ontario tonight while surface high pressure
moves across Lake Erie and south of Lake Ontario. A somewhat
tight pressure gradient has allowed for winds on the east end of
the lake to near SCA criteria, however the peak of the winds has
already likely passed, so the previous SCA has been cancelled.
The wind that remains will cause a moderate chop, however waves
are expected to stay below 4 feet. Lighter winds and waves are
expected on Lake Erie.

High pressure settles across the eastern Great Lakes region through
mid-week with light winds and gentle waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Fries/HSK