Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

116
FXUS61 KBUF 281736
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
136 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few showers will gradually end from west to east this afternoon
and evening with diminishing winds.

2) Widespread, soaking rain develops Wednesday afternoon and
continue through Wednesday night.

3) Cool for the end of the week and into the weekend with prospects
for frost as well as a few snowflakes for the higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A few showers will gradually end from west to east
this afternoon and evening with diminishing winds.

A weakening mid level trough and surface occlusion will continue to
move east across the area through the rest of the afternoon and
early evening. The most concentrated area of showers just ahead of
the trough will continue to move east from the Finger Lakes to the
eastern Lake Ontario region through the rest of the afternoon,
weakening and shrinking in areal coverage with time. A few more
spotty showers may develop across Western NY later this afternoon
and early evening as a modest low level wind shift moves east and
interacts with weak boundary layer instability, but these showers
will remain sparse in coverage, if they develop at all.

Gusty southerly winds will continue to diminish from west to east
through the rest of the afternoon and evening as a low level jet
situated just ahead of the trough moves east and weakens.

Any spotty showers will end this evening, leaving mainly dry weather
overnight through most of Wednesday morning. Some patchy fog will
develop overnight through Wednesday morning, especially across the
higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes where low
stratus will intersect the hilltops.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread, soaking rain develops Wednesday
afternoon and continue through Wednesday night.

A stronger mid level trough will advance east across the Great Lakes
Wednesday through Wednesday night, with large scale ascent
increasing from west to east as height falls spread into the eastern
Great Lakes. A surface low will develop over the upper Ohio Valley
Wednesday morning, then track to Central NY by Wednesday evening.
The combination of large scale forcing from the strong approaching
trough, upper level jet support, and thermal packing/frontogenesis
along the strengthening frontal wave will support widespread, soaking
rain developing from southwest to northeast across the region from
midday through the afternoon. The widespread rain will persist into
Wednesday evening before tapering off from west to east later
Wednesday night as the mid level trough moves east, spreading deep
moisture and forcing into eastern NY and New England.

Rainfall totals Wednesday through Wednesday night will reach 0.75"
to 1.25" across much of the area. The one exception will be far
Western NY, where totals may stay below 0.50" with a slight eastward
shift in the track of the frontal wave, strongest forcing and
moisture convergence. These rainfall totals are not enough to result
in any true flooding, although ponding of water will develop in poor
drainage areas, with within-bank rises on creeks and rivers.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cool for the end of the week and into the weekend
with prospects for frost as well as a few snowflakes for the higher
terrain.

Following the mid week system an upper level low that resided near
James Bay to begin the week will rotate southeastward over our
region. A much cooler airmass will accompany the low, with 850 hPa
temperatures dropping towards -6C by the weekend...which lies within
the bottom 10 percent of values measured by the Buffalo sounding
climatology.

Temperatures will only manage to peak into the upper 40s and lower
50s, which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal, Thursday through
Sunday...and if any clearing develops, and winds lighten at night
there will be potential for frost and or freezing conditions. For
all counties outside of Cattaraugus, Allegany, Jefferson and
Lewis...the frost-freeze program begins on May 1st.

Additionally, though not much precipitation is expected with this
bout of cold air...it will become cold enough aloft to support a few
snow showers, especially for the higher terrain.

This closed upper level low will begin to weaken and slide eastward
to start the next work week, allowing for a return to near normal
temperatures...though chances for rain showers continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weakening trough will continue to move east across the area this
afternoon and evening. the most concentrated area of showers will
move from the Finger Lakes early this afternoon to the eastern Lake
Ontario region by mid to late afternoon, continuing to weaken to
scattered sprinkles by early this evening. A few more spotty showers
may develop across Western NY later this afternoon and evening with
sparse coverage. VSBY will remain VFR in most areas given the light
nature of the rain and unsaturated low levels. Areas of MVFR CIGS
will develop across Western NY this afternoon and evening, with
mainly VFR along and east of the Genesee Valley. Gusty southerly
winds will diminish through the afternoon and evening as the low
level jet moves east and weakens.

Mainly dry weather is expected from mid evening through Wednesday
morning. Areas of MVFR CIGS will expand to much of the region
overnight, with IFR becoming prevalent across the higher terrain of
the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. The low stratus will likely
intersect the higher terrain with ridgetop fog/mountain obscuration
overnight through Wednesday morning.

Another, stronger trough will move into the Great Lakes Wednesday
afternoon, with a surface low developing over the upper Ohio Valley
and tracking to Central NY by early evening. Dry weather in the
morning will give way to widespread, soaking rain developing from
southwest to northeast from midday through the afternoon hours. The
steadier rain will bring MVFR/IFR VSBY in the afternoon, and CIGS
will deteriorate to widespread IFR a few hours after the rain
begins.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night...Widespread MVFR/IFR with rain in the evening,
tapering off from west to east overnight.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a few scattered showers possible,
especially east of Lake Ontario.

Friday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a few scattered showers at
times. Some wet snowflakes may mix in across higher terrain at
times.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to strong southerly winds will become southwest and
diminish from west to east this evening with the passage of a weak
trough. Small Craft Advisory conditions will end from west to east
as the winds diminish.

Low pressure will then develop over the upper Ohio Valley Wednesday
morning and track to Central NY by Wednesday evening. Northeast
winds will develop on both lakes Wednesday, then become northwest
Wednesday night and increase. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
likely at times from late Wednesday night through the end of the
week, especially on Lake Ontario, as an unseasonably cool airmass
and moderate pressure gradient setup over the Great Lakes region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The combination of dry fine fuels, south to southeast wind gusts
up to 30 to 35 mph, and relative humidity values as low as 25 to
35 percent will contribute to an elevated risk of fire spread
this afternoon for Lewis County. This concern will remain
through the late afternoon hours today, at which time rising RH
values as well as diminishing wind gusts and the increasing
potential for rain showers will end the near critical fire
weather condition. After this, widespread rain Wednesday and
much cooler conditions through the end of the week will keep
fire weather concerns low.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
FIRE WEATHER...Hitchcock/Thomas