Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

638
FXUS61 KBUF 011735
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
135 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor edits made with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity through Friday, then slowly lessening
heat/humidity for the holiday weekend.

2) Showers and thunderstorms possible at times through the weekend,
a few of which may be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity through Friday, then
slowly lessening heat/humidity for the holiday weekend.

Strong, dominant mid and upper level ridge will remain focused over
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region through the end of the work
week, supporting the continuation of oppressive heat and humidity
across the eastern Great Lakes. 850mb temperatures will continue to
be between the +20C to +22C range through Thursday, before a slight
cool down starting Friday.

High temperatures today and Thursday will solidly be in the mid 90s
for areas away from any lake influences. A few of the climatological
warmer locations will have a few readings in the upper 90s, with
even the higher elevations across the Southern Tier and eastern Lake
Ontario region reading in the upper 80s to near 90. These high
temperatures combined with the dewpoint readings in the mid to upper
70s are resulting in dangerous heat index values, which will
continue through Thursday. Peak heat index values this afternoon and
Thursday afternoon will reach the 104 to 108 range in the Extreme
Heat Warning areas, and the 98 to 104 range in the Heat Advisory
areas. The Buffalo Metro area and Jefferson County will continue to
benefit from southwest flow off the cooler lakes over the next few
days, but it will still be very warm and humid nonetheless.

As the mid and upper level ridge begins to retreat back into the
southeastern portions of the CONUS this weekend, a frontal boundary
will sag southward across the Great Lakes and support some relief to
the heat and humidity. Daytime highs will settle back into the mid
to upper 80s Saturday and the low to mid 80s Sunday. While
temperatures will be cooling, should note that it will still be
humid, however conditions won`t be as oppressive as today and
Thursday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms possible at times through
the weekend, a few of which may be strong to severe.

Synoptic pattern remains similar today as it was the previous day,
which will continue through Thursday with the region located on the
northern periphery of the strong ridge over the Ohio Valley. Heat
and humidity will will continue to support strong instability to
persist across the area. Convectively modulated shortwaves will
continue to pass along the top of the ridge from the upper Great
Lakes to southern Quebec and northern New England. Thus allowing
each shortwave disturbance to provide an uptick in mesoscale ascent
to support clusters of showers and thunderstorms.

For western and north central New York, the most likely location for
one or two more rounds of showers and thunderstorms is east of Lake
Ontario and the Saint Lawrence Valley. Latest high-res CAMS guidance
continues to be in poor agreement with the timing and placement of
potential thunderstorms complexes, but it appears the most likely
time frame will be this evening through tonight. For the rest of the
area, expect mainly dry weather this afternoon through tonight with
southwest flow supporting a stable lake shadow over and northeast of
Lake Erie.

As previously mentioned, expect a similar synoptic pattern Thursday
and Friday, with several complexes of showers and thunderstorms
developing north and west of our area, each being difficult to time
and place as any remnants move into/across the eastern Great Lakes.

A better chance of more organized showers and thunderstorms will
arrive this weekend as the upper level ridge begins to break down,
allowing and east-west oriented frontal zone to sag slowly south
across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Primarily dry weather and VFR are expected through 18Z/Thurs as a
surface ridge centered near the Mid OH Valley continues to affect
western and central NY. Our regional surface winds trend SW`erly
around 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are expected at
times before 00Z/Thurs and after ~14Z/Thurs.

At 17:20Z/Wed, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms was located
over northern Lower MI and another was located over eastern portions
of WI. These clusters of showers/thunderstorms should persist
generally E`ward to ESE`ward and impact the Eastern Lake Ontario
Region, including KART, between ~22Z/Wed and ~06Z/Thurs. Brief MVFR
to LIFR, frequent lightning, and brief/erratic surface wind gusts up
to 40 to 50 knots should accompany the storms.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible at times with localized/brief MVFR or
worse conditions.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
likely at times. Any thunderstorms will produce localized/brief
MVFR or worse conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwesterlies will produce choppy conditions much of the
time today through Thursday on Lake Erie and portions of Lake
Ontario, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria. Winds will diminish by the end of the week as the pressure
gradient relaxes across the lower Great Lakes.

There will be a chance of a few thunderstorms at times, a few of
which may contain locally gusty winds and higher waves. The best
chance of thunderstorms today through tonight will be near the east
end of Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence River. More organized
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the weekend as a weak
cold front stalls over the Great Lakes.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dangerous heat and humidity are expected across western and
north central NY this week. Here are the record maximum and high
minimum temperatures for Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown.

                    7/1         7/2         7/3
Buffalo, NY
High Max          93(1963)    94(1966)    94(1949)
High Low          75(1901)    75(1931)    74(1911*)

Rochester, NY
High Max          96(1901)    99(1931)    100(1911)
High Low          76(1931)    76(1931*)   75(1911)

Watertown, NY
High Max          92(1967)    92(1966)    91(1966)
High Low          74(2014)    73(2002)    74(1973)


Average Temperatures for June 30-July 3
Buffalo
Max           79
Min           62

Rochester
Max           82
Min           62

Watertown
Max           78
Min           57

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ001>006-013-
     014.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ007-008-010>012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Hitchcock
CLIMATE...Hitchcock