Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

186
FXUS61 KBUF 140004
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
704 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lakes snows will continue tonight off the lakes, becoming more
intense east and then southeast of Lake Ontario into Sunday morning
with near white out conditions. It will be bitterly cold to close
out the weekend, with overnight lows in the single digits to inland
below zero and highs Sunday struggling to break out of the teens.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A upper level low will sharpen across the eastern Great Lakes, with
the closed low`s trough axis passing through the region Sunday. This
cold airmass will increase snow ratios tonight, while tomorrow an
arctic front will drop southward across Lake Ontario during the
afternoon, shoving bands of snow southward as surface winds veer to
the northwest.

This upper level low will maintain well below normal temperatures
with single digits widespread, to inland below zero readings.
Factoring in a west wind of 10 to 15 mph, and we`ll have apparent
temperatures in the single digits, to below zero over a fresh
snowpack. Highs Sunday will struggle to break out of the teens with -
16 to -18C airmass overhead at 850 hPa. This airmass at 850 hPa
would lie within the bottom 10 percent of measured air temperatures
for the date on Buffalo sounding climatology.

For the Lake Effect Snow...

Lake Erie...

There will be a bit of wind shear with low level flow from the west-
northwest and then winds back aloft ahead of the closed low to our
west. While the snowband will remain broadly across Ski Country and
the Southern Tier, the wind shear and lack of an upstream connect
will keep snowfall rates in check this evening and overnight.

Additional accumulations of 2-5" tonight and 2-4" tomorrow will be
enough to warrant continuation of the lake effect snow warning.

Lake Ontario...

Lake snows will re-organized and begin to strengthen with the return
of synoptic moisture later this evening and overnight. As lake
induced equilibrium levels rise to over 10K feet snowfall rates will
increase upwards to 2-4"/hr in northern Oswego County, with this
heavy lake effect snowband dropping southward along the shoreline of
Oswego County. While the -10C isotherm will drop towards the
surface, lake warming of the boundary layer near the shoreline
coupled with the increasing lake induced equilibrium level to over
10K feet and deep mixed phase layer may be enough to yield a few
rumbles of thunder along the shoreline to several miles inland.
Snowfall totals 8-14" tonight centered upon northern Oswego County/
and 6-12" for southern Jefferson County will taper down quickly to
around 4-8" at the Lewis County line. Additional snow 8-12" across
northern Cayuga to western Oswego County Sunday as the snowband
takes on an anticyclonic shape (a known shape for heavy lake effect
snow)...with more than 4 inches of snow possible for the northwest
tip of Wayne County. IF the snowband can remain stationary for an
additional few hours, snow totals of 2 feet are possible for Oswego
County...closer to the shoreline. As winds veer behind an arctic
front the band of lake effect snow will be shoved inland, yielding 1-
3" of snow along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Brief weak ridging Sunday night will give way to a subtle mid-level
shortwave trough diving across the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday.
Ongoing weak lake effect will become lake enhanced and shift north
as winds back from northwest to southwest. Additionally outside of
the lake enhanced areas east of the lakes, expect a widespread light
snowfall across the remainder of the area.

Mid-level flow will then become zonal Tuesday, supporting a warming
trend aloft. Surface high pressure centered over the Southeastern
United States will ridge northward into the region.

Looking further into the details...

Off Lake Erie - Drier air, shear and surface high pressure will
weaken lake snows Sunday night and Monday. However, activity won`t
completely diminish as the next mid-level feature arrives to the
eastern Great Lakes late Monday, reviving the activity and shifting
it north as it becomes lake enhanced. By Monday afternoon and into
the early evening, the lake effect will lie northeast of the lake,
impacting the Buffalo Metro. This activity will then drift south
into the Southtowns of Buffalo Monday night before weakening by
Tuesday morning as dry air pushes into WNY. There is an increasing
chance for some advisory worthy snow east and northeast of Lake
Erie, including the Buffalo Metro area.

Off of Lake Ontario - A spray of lake effect activity will continue
Sunday night while gradually weakening. However, activity won`t
completely diminish as the next mid-level feature arrives to the
eastern Great Lakes Monday, reviving the activity and shifting it
north as it becomes lake enhanced. This band will first re-intensify
across eastern Oswego county Monday morning then traverse as far
north as the Watertown Metro Monday afternoon before shifting south
and hanging overhead of the Tug Hill Monday night where it will
gradually weaken through the start of Tuesday. There is an
increasing chance that snowfall amounts Monday and Monday will
accumulate to high end advisory or low end warning amounts.

As the surface ridge nudges northward across the region Tuesday
morning, dry, `warmer` air will filter across the region, resulting
in a break in the snow activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Heading into the middle of the work week, mid-level flow will become
more zonal, forcing cold air to retreat north into Canada and allow
for warmer air to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. A
surface low centered over the Southeastern United States will shift
east out to sea by Tuesday night. Meanwhile, the next shortwave
trough will slide east across the Great Lakes through Wednesday,
resulting in a weak frontal boundary to cross the eastern Great
Lakes. With its passage, expect a chance for a few rain or wet snow
showers.

Ahead of a strong Pacific trough traversing east across North
America midweek, a much warmer airmass will arrive by Thursday
allowing temperatures to rise will into the 40s. However, with the
aforementioned trough, will come the associated strong surface low
pressure moving across northwest Ontario towards the James Bay,
supporting a trailing cold front to pass across the region and
resulting in widespread rain. Much colder air will arrive late
Thursday night and Friday, changing precipitation back over to snow.
There may be a brief window of lake effect snow Friday, but this
potential looks limited with a rapid arrival of dry air by later
Friday, and then another push of strong warm advection by Saturday.
The next shortwave trough will quickly follow the previous strong
trough, supporting another frontal boundary to pass across the
region Saturday. With the aforementioned strong warm advection, most
precipitation will fall in the form of rain, with the only exception
being a mix of rain and snow, or all snow across the colder eastern
Lake Ontario region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mixed bag of VFR-MVFR to IFR flight conditions will be found
across area terminals this evening, and continue into the overnight
hours.

Weakened lake effect snows off Lake Erie will bring MVFR-IFR across
the western Southern Tier (KJHW) this evening, and continue into
tonight. Lake snows off Lake Ontario will largely remaining south of
KART, but will strengthen this evening into tonight over northern
Oswego Co. This will occur as a synoptic moisture returns, and the
long fetch of the lake comes into play. Lake effect off Ontario will
then drop south through Oswego County on Sunday. This will occur as
the Arctic front approaches by late Sunday morning-afternoon, which
possibly could bring lake snows to KROC and KIAG between 18Z-21Z
Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night...lake snows begin to weaken some southeast of the
Lakes, with IFR or lower visibilities.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR in lake
effect snow east and northeast of the lakes.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers east of Lake
Ontario.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with a chance for rain/snow east of Lake
Ontario.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR in rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated southwesterly to westerly flow will be commonplace across
the Lower Great Lakes for much of the time through at least early
Monday...and for this reason Small Craft Advisories are in effect as
outlined below.

There will be a period of northwest flow Sunday afternoon and
evening behind an arctic front, of which a small craft advisory for
the Lower Niagara River will be issued for winds potentially 20
knots or greater through the Niagara River.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday
     for NYZ004.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday
     for NYZ005.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for NYZ006.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007-008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ019-020-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/Thomas
NEAR TERM...AR/Thomas
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR/Thomas
MARINE...JJR/Thomas