Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

593
FXUS61 KBUF 210704
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
304 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain moves into the area late tonight through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain moves into the area late tonight through Monday.

A convectively enhanced shortwave trough over the mid Mississippi
Valley this afternoon will help to re-develop a sfc low that will
track east across the Ohio Valley through Monday. Additional larger
scale troughing will also help develop the sfc low. The lingering
vorticity and shortwave trough will track out ahead of the sfc low
along a developing warm frontal boundary found along/near the NY/PA
border. Guidance does vary with the location of this boundary
between northern PA and closer to Lake Ontario. At the same time, an
influx of synoptic moisture out ahead of the sfc low will surge into
the WNY area. Showers/rain will push into the region, originally
supported by the forcing from the shortwave trough and then
supported additionally from the developing warm frontal boundary.
The increase in moisture will help with the potential for heavier
showers at times embedded within the shield of rain. Rain will
taper off Monday evening into the overnight from northwest to
southeast.

Guidance continues to struggle with the timing and placement of
the rain. As of this writing the general consensus is that
showers/rain moves into far southwestern NY around or shortly
after Midnight tonight and the main axis of higher rainfall
amounts will be the Western Southern Tier and northeast across
the Finger Lakes. Rainfall amounts in these areas of around an
inch is looking likely, with lower amounts to half an inch for
areas closer to Lake Ontario. Lower amounts to around a quarter
of an inch is expected far north into the North Country. The
track of the lingering shortwave energy and placement of the
warm frontal boundary will determine how far north the rain
pushes into the region, there is still the potential that the
axis of heavier rain can move slightly farther north or south.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak trough of low pressure will pass across western NY through
the early morning hours, bringing the chance for a few scattered
light showers into the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region through
around daybreak, with any scattered shower activity then pulling
east of the area as the trough moves into southcentral NY. The more
notable impact will likely be lowering CIGS across the terminals
south of Lake Ontario, however most CIGS across this area are
forecast to be in the 5-7kft range. Exception will be across the
western Southern Tier (KJHW) where low VFR/MVFR CIGS will be
possible roughly in the 08Z-13Z timeframe. Mainly VFR conditions
expected east of Lake Ontario, although some low VFR/MVFR CIGS may
hang on across the far interior higher terrain through a portion of
the morning.

Low VFR/MVFR CIGS may linger across the western Southern Tier (KJHW)
into the first part of the morning, otherwise mainly VFR flight
conditions and dry weather are expected across the majority of the
area today. Exception will again be chances for a few scattered
showers and storms across the North Country and SL Valley this
afternoon, which may produce localized brief reductions to IFR/MVFR
within any heavier shower or storm. Otherwise, a period of low VFR
CIGS (~4kft) will be possible this afternoon across interior
portions of the North Country.

Winds will generally be less than 10 knots through the entire TAF
period.

Outlook...

Tonight...VFR for bulk of the night. Rain chances increase across
western NY through the second half of the night, with low VFR/MVFR
getting into the western Southern Tier late.

Monday...MVFR/IFR with rain likely. Chance of a few thunderstorms.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure crossing the area today will result in sub SCA winds
and waves. Out ahead of the high pressure, westerly winds will
maintain a light chop on the lakes with winds near 10 kts.

Winds will shift to the northeast and then east on Monday as an area
of low pressure tracks south of the region. Winds on Monday are
expected to remain around 10 kts or less.

Winds are expected to remain below SCA levels through at least the
middle of the new work week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...SW