Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

296
FXUS61 KBUF 170644
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
244 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The potential for severe thunderstorms has increased Saturday
and Saturday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Smoke from active wildfires across south-central Canada will
continue to cause poor air quality across far western NY today.

2) There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms
Saturday and Saturday night, with locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Smoke from active wildfires across south-central
Canada will continue to cause poor air quality across far western NY
today.

The upper level flow became more northerly last night, pushing the
main wildfire smoke plume from Canada mostly south of our area
though it continues to impact southwestern NY this morning. The flow
is expected to back today, allowing the smoke to move north across
the region through tonight. Latest HRRR model and REFS show
improving conditions near the surface, with most of the smoke
staying aloft. The worst conditions remain concentrated across far
western NY where an Air Quality Alert remains in effect until
midnight.

Key Message 2...There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) of severe
thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night, with locally heavy
rainfall.

A potent shortwave trough will dig across the Great Lakes region
tonight through Saturday. Surface low pressure will deepen as it
moves from the Upper Great Lakes region to the Saint Lawrence River.
A warm front will lift northward across the forecast area Friday
night with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Can`t rule out
an isolated strong storm along the warm front late tonight. The
region will be in the warm sector Saturday with dewpoints climbing
into the upper 60s to low 70s. The pressure gradient ahead of the
surface low and cold front will tighten and southwest winds will
increase across the region. A 30-40knot low level jet will move
overhead and wind gusts up to 30 mph, with some gusts up to 35 mph
northeast of the Lakes are expected.

There remains uncertainty in the coverage of convection in the
morning, however surface based instability is expected to develop
with the potential for 1000-2000 J/kg across western NY. A line of
storms may initially form on a pre-frontal trough inland from the
Lakes late Saturday morning, with a secondary line of convection
with the front Saturday afternoon through evening. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are possible during this time with damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall as the main threats. An isolated tornado is
possible in a favorable environment ahead of a surface low. The SPC
has issued a Slight Risk (2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for the
entire forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. There will be
periods of dry time between expected rounds of thunderstorms Friday
night through Saturday evening.

The threat for thunderstorms will come to an end behind the cold
front Saturday night. A few showers may linger into Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Smoke from wildfires in Canada continues to impact terminals across
western NY this morning. MVFR/IFR conditions will continue across
the western Southern Tier and portions of the far western Finger
Lakes region. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere, however
ceilings between 035-050 are possible near KBUF/KGVQ this morning.

High pressure will remain across the region today with variable
winds. Near surface smoke is expected to improve across western NY
today, however the HRRR and REFS indicates that less dense smoke
moving back northward. VFR conditions are expected through Friday
evening, however we will need to monitor upstream observations
closely. A warm front is expected to move across the region Friday
night. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible.

Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday night...Restrictions likely in periodic
showers and thunderstorms. Lingering smoke possible.

Sunday and Monday...Fair weather and VFR expected.

Monday night and Tuesday...Restrictions likely in periodic
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Smoke from Canadian wildfires will result in periods of reduced
visibility on the lower Great Lakes today. The worst of the
conditions will be through tonight on Lake Erie, where a Dense Smoke
Advisory remains in effect through 4 AM this morning for visibility
down to one nautical mile. The advisory may be extended if
visibility is at one nautical mile or less.

Light winds and gentle waves will continue on the Lakes today. A
warm front will pass across the lower Great Lakes late tonight into
Saturday with south-southwest winds freshening to 15-20 knots. Waves
will build to near 3 feet Saturday. A cold front will move across
the region late Saturday with west and northwest winds developing
behind it, with a period of small craft conditions likely developing
on Lake Ontario late Saturday and Saturday night.

Thunderstorms chances will increase starting early Saturday with the
warm front and be possible throughout the day until the cold front
moves through.

High pressure builds in Sunday and persists through Monday with
winds and waves subsiding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001-002-
     010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
         LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/TMA