Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

798
FXUS61 KBUF 191222
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
822 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Based on radar/surface obs/webcams have increased PoPs a bit and
indicated more snow than rain over the North Country/portions of
the Finger Lakes through mid to late morning.

Slightly increased thunderstorm chances from the Niagara
Frontier to the Finger Lakes today. Added chances for graupel
(small hail) in the same area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled, significantly colder weather will continue
through Monday night with rain and/or snow showers. Showers
today could contain a few rumbles of thunder and graupel.

2) After the cold start, another day to day warming trend is
expected throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled, significantly colder weather will
continue through Monday night with mixed rain and/or snow
showers. Showers today could contain a few rumbles of thunder
and graupel.

GOES Water Vapor imagery this morning indicates a deep longwave
trough extending down across the Mississippi Valley from near
southern Hudson Bay and gradually trudging eastward. Over the next
couple of days this trough will drag a Canadian Polar airmass across
the Great Lakes while supporting chances for showery precipitation.

Colder temperatures...

Behind a strong cold front, 850mb temps of -4C to -7C this morning
will bottom out around -13C by Monday morning. By comparison, 850mb
temps on yesterday morning`s 12z KBUF sounding were near +12C. This
will translate to starkly different surface temperatures compared to
the past week, with daytime highs today in the 40s, falling to the
30s to low 40s for Monday. Nighttime lows will be even colder, with
widespread 20s and even teens at the higher elevations, especially
Monday night.

Precipitation types and chances...

As of 815 am...area radars show a widespread swath of pcpn
continuing from portions of the Finger Lakes eastward across the
North Country...much of which is falling in the form of snow per
regional surface obs and webcams, with the latter sticking and
resulting in some accumulation on grassy surfaces, more so
across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Have bumped up
PoPs and indicated more snow than rain across our central/
eastern zones over the next couple of hours...with some
accumulations of 1-2" likely on grassy/elevated surfaces across
the higher terrain of the North Country before this winds down
later this morning.

The back edge of the upstream trough axis will not finish crossing
the eastern Great Lakes until sometime later Monday. Until then,
weak but steady broad scale height falls/DPVA, lake enhancement, and
upslope effects will support on and off chances for showers, mainly
south of Lake Ontario.

Through early this evening, thermal profiles should favor plain rain
though some wet snow at times cannot be ruled out. 850mb temps will
hover around either side of -6C, though the strong mid/late April
sun angle will warm the low levels to promote melting of
hydrometeors during the daylight hours. This said, model soundings
south of Lake Ontario indicate a small dry layer below 900mb, which
introduces some uncertainty in the potential for wet bulb cooling
causing more wet snow to reach the ground in spots. Speaking of
which, diurnal heating with steepening mid-level lapse rates may
support 100-200J/kg of MLCAPE this afternoon, particularly where low-
level convergence is favored from the Niagara Frontier to the Finger
Lakes. With very low freezing levels (~2kft), could see this
environment sparking a few thunderstorms and/or graupel showers.

The deepening colder air and lack of daytime warming allows for snow
to become the dominant ptype tonight. Given how warm the ground
still is, minor accumulations under an inch should be generally
limited to grassy or elevated surfaces. Drier air begins to
work in late tonight through Monday as the trough axis moves
through, which will gradually taper off the precipitation
chances. Still, widely scattered nuisance snow showers may
persist well into the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...After the cold start, another day to day warming
trend is expected throughout the week.

High pressure ridging at all levels will crest east of the forecast
area early Tuesday, allowing for a return to southerly flow. This
will cause temps to initially recover back to near seasonal averages
with highs in the 50s to upper 40s. Behind a weak passing system
Tuesday night, an even stronger amplifying ridge will build into the
Great lakes which will cause temps to continue trending upwards each
period, with well above average temps increasingly likely by late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Numerous showers will taper off from west to east across
western and north- central NY this morning. Rain may mix with
snow briefly before ending. VFR/MVFR conditions are expected
across the region this morning.

Additional showers are expected to develop today. Daytime
heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will result in a
slight chance of thunder across far western NY. Can`t rule out
small hail in any thunderstorms. VFR/MVFR flight conditions are
expected this afternoon.

A secondary cold front will move through the region tonight. A
round of snow showers are likely across western and north-
central NY this evening and MVFR/VFR conditions are expected.

Outlook...

Monday...Improvement to VFR with leftover scattered lake
effect/upslope snow showers ending.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light westerly winds will continue across the eastern Great
Lakes this morning.

Cold air deepening across the lakes and an increasing pressure
gradient will cause westerly winds to freshen today. Winds will turn
northwesterly tonight and remain elevated into Monday morning with
speeds near 20 knots. This will support a period of small craft
headlines on the eastern half of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM
         EDT Monday for LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
         Monday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PP/JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/TMA