Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

370
FXUS61 KBUF 200715
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
315 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Spotty showers possible this weekend, followed by rain Sunday
night through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Spotty showers possible this weekend, followed by
rain Sunday night through Monday.

A few passing shortwave troughs this weekend will bring the
potential for some scattered showers both today and Sunday. The best
chance is expected for this afternoon into the overnight tonight
with a slightly stronger trough crossing the region during this
time. For areas south of Lake Ontario, the combination of daytime
heating and the passing shortwave trough will have the potential for
producing showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. Otherwise these
areas will have plenty of dry time during the weekend. Areas east of
Lake Ontario will continue to have better chances for on and off
showers as remnants of the wind producing low from Thursday lingers
over southeastern Canada today. The area is also closer to better
forcing and closer proximity to the lingering trough associated with
the system.

An area of low pressure tracking across the Ohio Valley and toward
the Western NY area Sunday night will start to push showers into the
far southwestern portion of the area early Monday morning. Showers
will expand northeast across the area behind the systems passing
warm front. There is still uncertainty among the latest models with
how far north the shield of rain will make it. This will mainly
bring into question if rain will get far enough north to reach the
North Country, otherwise most of the guidance has rain pushing as
far north as at least I90. Current rainfall forecast is for half an
inch to one inch of rain for areas south of I90, with the higher
rain amounts toward the NY/PA border. Farther north, such as in the
North Country, rainfall forecast amounts are closer to a quarter of
an inch.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR flight conditions and dry weather are expected for the terminals
south of Lake Ontario. However, similar to last night scattered
showers will be found across the North Country (KART) through much
of the overnight before tapering off around daybreak. MVFR/higher
terrain IFR CIGS are also expected to develop again there as well.

Saturday will be mainly dry with VFR flight conditions across the
bulk of the area, with the exception of the North Country where MVFR
CIGS will hang on through the first half of the day, then possibly
improve to low VFR during the afternoon. Scattered showers/isolated
storms will likely blossom once again across the North Country
Saturday afternoon, with just a slight chance for an afternoon
shower/storm toward KJHW. Bulk of the area expected to be dry with
VFR conditions Saturday night, with just a small chance for a
shower/storm across the North Country (KART) and southwestern NYS
(KJHW).

Westerly flow will remain elevated through Saturday, however gusts
will `only` peak in the 20-25 knot range Saturday afternoon, much
lower than the previous couple of days.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR, rain developing overnight with MVFR/IFR late.

Monday...MVFR/IFR with rain likely. Chance of a few thunderstorms.

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong pressure gradient remains over the region from Thursdays
passing storm system and an area of high pressure approaching from
the west. This will continue to create at least choppy conditions on
Lake Erie with winds reaching near 15 knots this afternoon. SCA
conditions are expected to continue on most of Lake Ontario with
winds of 15 to 25 knots. Winds on the western end of Lake Ontario
will weaken this morning, but winds will continue to support SCAs on
the central and eastern portion of the lake.

As the low pressure tracks off the Canadian coast, the pressure
gradient will continue to weaken tonight, at which point, all
remaining SCAs are expected to drop.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001-
     002.
     Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ003>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...SW