Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

078
FXUS61 KBUF 020619
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
119 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Brief cold period continues today.

2) Multiple surface lows will bring more active weather starting
Tuesday, with a limited wintry mix possible Tuesday, and hydro
concerns possible by late in the week.

3) A warming trend will take place this week with temperatures
climbing to well above normal by later this week...then likely
continuing into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Brief cold period continues today.

A few spotty lake effect clouds will continue along the south shore
of Lake Ontario early this morning. Otherwise, mainly clear skies
and light winds will allow for a chilly start this morning with
strong radiational cooling. Daybreak temperatures will be in the
single digits in most of the area, and single digits to teens below
zero east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will gradually warm today
with a good amount of sunshine. Highs will eventually reach the
upper 20s to lower 30s in Western NY, with low 20s for the North
Country.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Multiple surface lows will bring more active weather
starting Tuesday, with a limited wintry mix possible Tuesday, and
hydro concerns possible by late in the week.

A fundamental pattern change will take place across North America as
we push through the week...with early-week western ridging and
eastern troughing giving way to a quasi-zonal flow by Tuesday...
followed by developing western troughing and eastern downstream
height rises/ridging by late in the week. This change will be driven
by a series of shortwave troughs and attendant surface waves
rippling eastward and eventually northeastward through the larger-
scale mean flow...with the first of these affecting the region in
the Tuesday-Tuesday evening time frame.

The biggest challenge with this first wave remains precipitation
type as warmer air begins to make inroads across our region...
resulting in marginal thermal profiles for rain/snow initially.
South of Lake Ontario...this could result in a brief period of a
little light snow or wintry mix at the onset Tuesday morning...
before enough warming of the column develops to drive a changeover
to all rain by late morning/early afternoon. Meanwhile east of Lake
Ontario the airmass will remain colder with little to no layer of
above-freezing air making it in aloft...and thereby more supportive
of a mere lower elevation rain/higher elevation snow mix across the
North Country.

At this point the best potential for any freezing rain or sleet
looks to be largely confined to the interior of the Southern Tier
and perhaps some of the higher terrain of Wyoming county...where it
will be a race between how quickly the pcpn can arrive and how fast
surface temps can climb above freezing. Given that this would be
rather brief...the pcpn rather light...and that it would likely come
during the daytime (when the steep early March sun angle would be
more likely to limit impacts on area roadways)...do not have enough
confidence to issue an advisory at this time...though will insert a
mention of this potential into the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

After this first system passes by...odds seem to be improving that
we`ll see a bit of a break during the second half of Tuesday night
and much of Wednesday...before multiple additional shortwaves/
associated waves of low pressure affect our region during the
remainder of the week. While still not totally in lockstep with one
another...the various members of the guidance suite do seem to be
coming into better agreement on taking these features either
directly across or just to the north of our area through Friday...
before trending the storm track off to our northwest by the start of
the weekend. Such an evolution of the pattern and a continued steady
warming trend would tend to favor just plain rain as the predominant
ptype as we push through the balance of the week...with perhaps a
little bit of a wintry mix possible across the North Country
Wednesday and Thursday nights.

This increasingly active and warmer/wetter pattern also still looks
supportive of consensus basin-average precipitation amounts ranging
from 1 to 2 inches from Tuesday through Sunday (the bulk of which
would fall after Wednesday)...with more localized amounts of between
2-3 inches possible. Coupled with increasing snowmelt...this will
result in rising water levels on area creeks and streams as we push
through the latter portions of the week and next weekend. While such
rises are not likely to cause issues through Thursday...beginning
Friday MMEFS ensembles suggest that a number of area waterways will
reach action levels...with some possibly reaching or exceeding minor
flood stage. Additionally...the rainfall and increasing snowmelt
will also raise the risk of ice breakup/movement and ice jams on
those waterways where ice still lingers.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A warming trend will take place this week with
temperatures climbing to well above normal by later this week...then
likely continuing into next week.

The aforementioned pattern change will also act to pump increasingly
warmer air across our region from Tuesday right on through the start
of next weekend. After one last day of below normal temperatures
today...this will result in a steady warming trend beginning
Tuesday...with increasing chances of temperatures eventually
climbing to springlike levels by Friday and Saturday as the main
surface low track shifts progressively further northwestward. This
particularly appears to be the case south of Lake Ontario...where
high temps in excess of 60 degrees are appearing increasingly likely
on Saturday.

It should be noted that while the potential passage of a cold front
may then help to knock readings back somewhat for Sunday...the
overall pattern of a trough in the west/ridge in the east looks to
persist through the first half of next week...thereby strongly
favoring continued well above normal temperatures as highlighted in
CPC`s 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A few patches of lake effect clouds and MVFR CIGS will linger early
this morning along the south shore of Lake Ontario.

Otherwise, VFR will prevail today through tonight as high pressure
drifts east across New England. Increasing warm advection will
spread some mid/high clouds into the Southern Tier late tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR with rain likely,
especially in the southern half of the area. The rain may begin as a
brief period of freezing rain Tuesday in some locations across the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Precipitation may be in the form of
snow east of Lake Ontario.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the day. Rain likely with MVFR/IFR
flight conditions returning Wednesday night.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain.

Friday...MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build overhead today with a period of light winds
and diminishing wave action.

South winds will increase on the eastern half of Lake Ontario
tonight through Tuesday as the high drifts off the New England coast
and low pressure approaches from the west. This will produce a
period of choppy conditions at the northeast end of the lake, but
winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria.

Winds are then expected to be mainly light with low wave action from
later Tuesday through Wednesday.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock