Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

206
FXUS61 KBUF 111049
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
649 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Confidence continues to increase for a brief period of
potentially dangerous heat during the first part of next week,
especially Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Confidence continues to increase for a brief period
of potentially dangerous heat during the first part of next week,
especially Tuesday.

Large dome of high pressure located over the Four Corners region and
Intermountain West this weekend will expand east across the
central/northern Plains states and upper Mississippi Valley Monday,
where its center will strengthen to an impressive 600dm, with the
eastern periphery of the large ridge getting into the central and
lower Great Lakes by Tuesday.

In response, surface temperatures will rise above average Monday,
however humidity levels will remain in check. This should keep heat
indices mainly in the mid to upper 80s, with some low 90s possible
across the typically warmer locations. Tuesday appears as it will be
the hottest day, with 850mb temps forecast to be in the 21C-24C
range, yielding surface highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across
much of the area, with some mid 90s not out of the question for the
warmer locales. Combined with higher humidity levels, this will be
the most likely day with a moderate to major heat risk. One caveat,
a fairly stout west to southwest flow will become established, which
will at least allow for some cooling downwind of the lakes.

Fortunately this blast of dangerous heat looks to be short-lived as
a majority of the medium range guidance advertises a large trough
dropping south out of eastern Canada, with an attendant surface cold
front forecast to cross the area Wednesday, suppressing the
oppressive heat and humidity back to our south and west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather and primarily VFR are expected through 12Z/Sun as a
surface ridge continues to build from James Bay and eastern ON. Our
regional surface winds are expected to be light and variable before
~13Z morning and after ~00Z/Sun. Otherwise, NNE`erly to NE`erly
winds around 5 to 10 knots are expected, including in relation to
lake breeze development off Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Outlook...Dry weather and VFR are expected through this Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Other than a period of 1-2 foot waves on Lake Ontario today owed to
a gentle to moderate N/NE breeze, mainly light to gentle breezes and
negligible waves are expected through the weekend into Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...JM