Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

413
FXUS61 KBUF 030014
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
814 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather is expected to return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather is expected to return this
weekend.

A large upper level ridge and surface high pressure will remain
across the region through much of the work week maintaining warm and
dry conditions. The ridge is expected to begin breaking down Friday,
allowing moisture and northern stream shortwave troughs to reach the
Upper Great Lakes region.

A deep southerly flow is expected to move into the Ohio Valley and
the eastern Great Lakes region this weekend. Ensemble mean 500mb
heights and 500 mb RH show a shortwave trough with increasing
moisture moving into the Ohio Valley Saturday. While confidence is
low on the timing and strength of the surface reflection, a period
of showers and thunderstorms are expected with the higher
probability inland from the Lakes in the afternoon and evening
hours. Ensemble Mean PWATS are forecast to be above 1.00", which is
around the 80th percentile for early June. Any activity could
produce heavy downpours.

The pattern suggests a ridge building across the Plains and Upper
Great Lakes and a trough across the Northeast early next week.
Ensemble mean 500mb heights show the ridge moving eastward through
mid-week, however some deterministic runs show an upper level low
overhead through mid-week. Unsettled weather may continue into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expansive surface ridge centered over the Great Lakes region will
maintain VFR conditions areawide through the end of the 00Z TAF
cycle. Winds will drop below 10 knots or less this evening, and
remain there overnight.

Wednesday...more VFR with local lake breezes circulations becoming
established in the late morning and afternoon.


Outlook...

Thursday...VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR, with MVFR/IFR in showers and
thunderstorms. Heavy downpours are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will settle across the eastern Great Lakes region
through mid-week with light winds and gentle waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...HSK