Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

190
FXUS61 KBUF 150640
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
240 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased winds and wind gusts on Saturday and lowered max
temperatures on Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chance for scattered showers Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night, with a few thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and
evening.

2) A substantial day-to-day warming trend begins today, with summer-
like heat by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for scattered showers Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night, with a few thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon
and evening.

A mid level shortwave and associated surface warm frontal segment
will push into western and northcentral NY Saturday afternoon. Aided
by additional forcing owed to a 35-45kt LLJ and a surge of deeper
moisture, expect increasing chances for showers Saturday afternoon,
along with a few afternoon/evening thunderstorms as diurnal
instability builds. Best chance for a few storms will be across
areas south of Lake Ontario and inland of any stable lake shadows
where the better instability will reside. Severe potential is low as
this time. Despite increasing cloud cover, should still see some
decent diurnal mixing of the stronger winds off the deck to the
surface, thus have bumped up winds and wind gusts from the NBM for
late Saturday morning through late in the day. Currently have wind
gusts of 30-35 mph across much of western NY, however if cloud cover
holds off a little longer, could see wind gusts increasing a bit
more with future updates.

The surface boundary will stall out across our area Saturday night,
however with the better forcing associated with the mid level
shortwave/LLJ and deeper moisture departing to the east, shower
potential will decrease through the overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A substantial day-to-day warming trend begins today,
with summer-like heat by early next week.

A large pattern shift will occur this weekend into the first half of
next week, flipping the switch from much cooler than average
temperatures to mid-summer like heat by early next week. First surge
of warmer air pushes into the area Saturday, which will help boost
temperatures into the 70s this weekend. Mid and upper level ridging
then amplifies over the eastern third of the U.S. and western
Atlantic early next week, setting up a deep southwesterly flow right
into our region. A couple of low pressure systems will cut northeast
through the upper Great Lakes first part of next week bringing a
strong push of mid-summer like air into our area on their eastern
flank. This will boost temperatures into the 80s across much of
western and north-central NY Monday and Tuesday, with a run at 90F
not out of the question for some of our traditionally warmest
locations. The NBM continues to look too warm for daytime highs
Monday and Tuesday, thus in coordination with surrounding offices
and WPC, daytime highs were lowered a few to several degrees both
days. The potential for reaching headline worthy criteria for heat
is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cool, moist, northerly flow will continue to support MVFR/IFR flight
conditions across the region overnight. An area of low pressure
responsible for the dreary conditions off the New England coast will
drift southeastward through this morning. Drizzle/light rain will
end through the overnight hours across western NY. Flight conditions
will slowly improve through this morning, with MVFR/VFR conditions
across the lower elevations of western NY by daybreak. Low clouds
will remain across the higher terrain across western NY. Rain
showers and MVFR/IFR conditions will linger across the eastern Lake
Ontario region through late morning. Low ceilings may linger into
early afternoon across the Tug Hill region, east of KART.

Outlook...

Tonight...Mainly VFR.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Potential for showers will increase later in
the day, with minimal reductions expected at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
A strengthening S to SW flow will bring gentle to moderate breezes
today through Saturday night, with light to moderate chop on both
lakes at times, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

Pressure gradient will then weaken, with light winds and little to
no wave action on both lakes Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...JM