Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

924
FXUS61 KBUF 120646
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
246 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather through the bulk of this morning, with increasing
shower chances this afternoon, especially north of I-90.

2) Much warmer but unsettled weather through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather through the bulk of this morning, with
increasing shower chances this afternoon, especially north of I-90.

High pressure over central NY will keep dry and seasonable weather
intact through the remainder of the overnight as it slides east into
New England.

Most, if not all of the area looks to remain rain-free through
midday as high pressure slips a bit further east off the New England
coast. Shower chances will ramp up this afternoon into the evening
as a warm front crosses the region. The best shower chances will be
north of I-90, and especially further north toward the North Country
and SL Valley where the better forcing and moisture will lie along
and ahead of the warm front. Low chances for a shower toward the
NY/PA line, with many areas there quite possibly remaining dry
through the entire day. A tightening pressure gradient will bring a
noticeable uptick in a southerly breeze during the afternoon hours.

Warm front moves just north of the area later this evening where it
will remain through the overnight with the bulk of the area rain-
free during this timeframe, although will linger close enough to the
North Country to keep the threat for a few scattered light showers
going there through the overnight. A cold front will then approach
late tonight bringing renewed chances for rain showers by early
Monday morning. Southerly flow will continue to strengthen through
the overnight with 25-35 mph S/SSWerly gusts possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much warmer but unsettled weather through much of
the week.

A pair of strong Pacific troughs will move into the western CONUS
through the first half of the week, supporting gradual height rises
and building warmth over the eastern US through much of the week.
The westerlies and an east-west oriented frontal zone will remain
draped from the Great Lakes to New England for much of the week,
supporting frequent rain chances.

Looking at the details, a low amplitude mid level shortwave and weak
cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday, supporting a
period of showers moving from west to east across the region. A
strong 50+ knot low level jet will also cross the eastern Great
Lakes in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Low level lapse
rates will be poor in the warm sector, but partial mixing will still
support wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range in most areas, and 40+ mph
across the Niagara Frontier to Rochester.

A few more rounds of showers are likely Tuesday through Wednesday as
a series of weak mid level shortwaves move east across the Great
Lakes and the frontal zone remains nearby. The timing of the better
rain chances becomes more uncertain with time, but at least some
rain is likely each day. Building warmth and higher dewpoints will
support at least some modest instability with a chance of a few
thunderstorms as well.

A Pacific shortwave will move east late in the week, supporting a
surface low moving across the upper Great Lakes to Quebec Wednesday
night through Thursday night. The trailing cold front is forecast to
cross the eastern Great Lakes later Thursday or Thursday night,
supporting ongoing chances of rain and a few thunderstorms. A weak
ridge of high pressure may build into the region behind this system
by Friday, finally bringing a mainly dry day.

Warmth will continue to build through the week. Highs Monday will be
in the 65-70 degree range in most areas, only held back by the early
arrival of clouds and showers. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will
be well into the 70s for most areas away from the influence of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario, with a few near 80 degree readings possible
in the typical warmer spots in the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes.
Humidity will also creep upward, with surface dewpoints around 60F
by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over central NY will keep widespread VFR flight
conditions intact through at least midday, with mid level decks
thickening and lowering from west to east through the morning hours
ahead of an approaching warm front. Shower chances will ramp up this
afternoon into the evening as a warm front crosses the region. The
best shower chances will be north of I-90, and especially further
north toward the North Country (KART) and SL Valley where brief
periods of MVFR VSBY will be possible in any heavier showers. CIGS
are expected to remain VFR, although a period of low-VFR CIGS will
possible across the terminals north of I-90.

Warm front moves north of the area later this evening and remains
there through the overnight with mainly rain-free and widespread VFR
flight conditions expected in the wake of the frontal passage. A
strong 50-55 knot LLJ will move overhead behind the warm front. Poor
lapse rates will limit then extent of mixing of these winds to the
surface, however typical localized areas north of terrain barriers
may see some higher gusts. Most areas will see S/SSWerly gusts in
the 20-25 knot range. The possibility of limited mixing of these
stronger winds down to the surface will also lead to the potential
for LLWS starting from this evening through the overnight.


Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...VFR/MVFR (IFR at times) with a few
showers likely at times, along with a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will drift east of the area with an offshore wind
developing and gradually strengthening through the day. There will
be a more noticeable uptick in the winds by very late today, with a
fresh S to SSW breeze developing on the lakes tonight and Monday,
with a period of strong southerly breezes possible across the
eastern third of Lake Ontario tonight. Small craft headlines will
likely be needed during this timeframe before winds and waves
subside Monday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM