Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

420
FXUS61 KBUF 121057
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
557 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have issued new Gale Warnings for the nearshore waters of Lake
Erie today...otherwise there have been no significant changes
to the forecast this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A passing shortwave trough will enhance lake snows today and
tonight, mainly east of Lake Ontario where additional moderate
accumulations are expected.

2) Winds will become gusty again today, especially northeast of Lake
Erie.

3) A low pressure system will pass by the upper Great Lakes
Tuesday and to our north Tuesday night, with gusty winds and
rain that mixes with snow across the higher terrain through
Wednesday.

4) Progressively turning colder Wednesday night and Thursday with
the potential for some accumulating snows, especially in the favored
areas east and southeast of the lakes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A passing shortwave trough will enhance lake snows
today and tonight, mainly east of Lake Ontario where additional
moderate accumulations are expected.

A shortwave trough will push across the lower Great Lakes today...
before sliding off to our east tonight. While the attendant warm
advection regime will result in a thermodynamic environment that
will be less conducive for lake effect snow...this will be at least
partially offset by deepening synoptic scale moisture again.

The most favorable conditions (relatively speaking) will be found
over Lake Ontario...where 850 mb temps of around -10C will allow for
lake enhanced snows to rejuvenate across areas east of the lake
today...before weakening again tonight as the atmosphere warms
further and synoptic moisture diminishes in the wake of the
shortwave trough...with the remnant snow showers from these lifting
north toward the Saint Lawrence River late as winds back to south-
southwesterly. Coupled with upsloping...this will result in
additional moderate accumulations across the higher terrain of the
Tug Hill and (to a lesser extent) the western Adirondack
foothills...with notably lesser amounts across the lower elevations.
Taking this and some additional wind gusts to 30-40 mph into
account...the existing Winter Weather Advisory will remain in place
for the three counties east of Lake Ontario.

East of Lake Erie 850 mb temps of -7C to -9C will be a bit too warm
for a robust lake response...and instead will be just cold enough to
generate the likelihood of some lake enhanced snow showers when
coupled with the increase in background moisture and lift provided
by the shortwave trough. Given the general WSW to SW flow...the bulk
of the snow showers will lie across the Niagara Frontier including
the Buffalo Metro area...where an inch or so of snow could
accumulate through the day. The snow showers will then gradually
diminish late today and tonight as the atmosphere warms and dries
behind the shortwave trough...with it not out of the question that
these end as some patchy freezing drizzle tonight if the cloud
bearing layer falls below the prime dendritic snow growth region
before the pcpn ends.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Winds will become gusty again today, especially
northeast of Lake Erie.

The passing trough will re-tighten the pressure gradient across the
area today...with 925 mb winds increasing to the 25-35 knot range
over much of the area...and around 40 knots or slightly higher
immediately northeast of Lake Erie. While temperature advection
aloft will be roughly neutral...diurnal warming of the lower levels
will result in low level lapse rates steepening enough again to mix
a significant portion of the winds from aloft down to the surface...
resulting in gusts likely reaching the 40-45 mph range again along
the Lake Erie shoreline and across the Niagara Frontier. Cannot even
completely rule out a few slightly higher gusts in the above area...
however at this point forecast confidence is not quite high enough
to warrant another Wind Advisory...especially when considering the
marginal nature of the event and all of the other wind events we
have experienced lately. Elsewhere gusts will mostly range from 30-
40 mph today...with both sustained winds and gusts then subsiding
late today and this evening with warm advection aloft and
diminishing mixing.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A low pressure system will pass by the upper Great
Lakes Tuesday and to our north Tuesday night, with gusty winds
and rain that mixes with snow across the higher terrain through
Wednesday.

A low pressure system will pass by the upper Great Lakes Tuesday and
then to our north Tuesday night. Meanwhile, it will send its
trailing cold front into the region Tuesday evening-night. A
strengthening LLJ (+50 knots) ahead and along the front will lead to
some gusts up to 40 mph Tuesday afternoon-evening, especially
northeast of the lakes. Anticipating mainly rain with the front when
it arrives but it will overtime turn colder as we move into
Wednesday such that p-type will begin to mix or transition to snow
across the higher terrain.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Progressively turning colder Wednesday night and
Thursday with the potential for some accumulating snows, especially
in the favored areas east and southeast of the lakes.

A complex scenario will then unfold Wednesday evening-night as a
surface low develops and tracks northeast passing to our south and
east. That said...depending on the track we could see some
accumulating snow as we move through Wednesday night and on
Thursday, especially in the typically favored lake enhanced areas.
However...at this point there still remains a `high` degree of
uncertainty in the guidance with the overall evolution of this
system. One thing does appear more than certain...we will turn
colder as we progress through the later half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As we move through today...the aforementioned shortwave trough and
surface trough will move across our region. Associated backing of
the low level winds will result in winds turning more west-southwest
again...with increasing moisture and lift from the shortwave
correspondingly allowing for lake enhanced snow to redevelop and
increase in coverage/intensity again east-northeast of the
lakes...with this especially the case off Lake Ontario. Off that
lake...expect the snow to center on the northern Tug Hill Plateau
most of the day, with at least the northern edge of the band
clipping KART with periods of IFR at times. Heavier snow across the
Tug Hill may bring LIFR there. Meanwhile off Lake Erie...lighter
lake effect snow showers will develop near KBUF this morning and
continue through the day with MVFR/IFR visibilities...with these
possibly clipping KIAG at times. Outside of the lake enhanced
snow...flight conditions will be primarily MVFR due to lower
ceilings.

Otherwise winds will ramp up again today as the passing trough helps
to tighten the pressure gradient once again...with gusts to 20-30
knots common across much of the area...and reaching to as high as 35-
40 knots northeast of Lake Erie (affecting KBUF/KIAG) from late
morning through late afternoon.

Late today and tonight winds will subside again...with lingering
lake enhanced snow and visibility restrictions east-northeast of the
lakes gradually diminishing from west to east. Flight conditions
will improve to VFR across the southern Tier and interior Finger
Lakes...while remaining MVFR elsewhere (and primarily IFR east of
Lake Ontario).

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR to MVFR.

Tuesday night...Mainly MVFR with increasing chances for rain
showers. Wet snow showers at higher elevations with attendant IFR
conditions.

Wednesday...MVFR with a mix of rain and snow showers, with IFR
possible in any snow showers.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with localized lake enhanced snow showers
possible east-southeast of the lakes.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with localized lake effect snow showers east of
the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will increase again today as another trough passes just north
of the lakes and induces a tightening of the pressure gradient.
Winds will consequently increase back to 30 knots on Lake
Ontario...and to low-end gale force on Lake Erie. Winds will then
diminish some again tonight...but will remain elevated through
midweek.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/Hitchcock/JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JJR
MARINE...JJR