Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

509
FXUS61 KBUF 102312
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
612 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for southern Erie,
Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Wyoming counties from 7 AM Sunday to 1
AM Monday.

A (long-duration) Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Jefferson, Oswego, and Lewis counties from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM
Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snowmelt due to mild temperatures and rain will continue to
result in increased runoff through Sunday. However, all area creeks
including the Buffalo Creeks have now fallen below action stage and
are not forecast to reach action stage again even with one more
round of rain before colder weather returns. There remains a low
chance for river/creek or ice jam flooding, but chances continue to
decrease with time.

2) The next storm system will bring a period of gusty winds later
tonight and Sunday. The threat for any impact from a wintry mix
across the North Country continues to lower as temperatures appear a
bit warmer across the Tug Hill Plateau and Saint Lawrence Valley
this evening...possibly starting as a brief period of mixed
rain/sleet/snow before quickly going over to plain rain.

3) Several periods of short-duration Lake Effect Snow...Sunday into
the first half of Sunday night and again from later Monday morning
into Monday night. Winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph will cause
blowing and drifting snow.

4) Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday night through
Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and mixed
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Snowmelt due to mild temperatures and rain will
continue to result in increased runoff through Sunday. However, all
area creeks including the Buffalo Creeks have now fallen below
action stage and are not forecast to reach action stage again even
with one more round of rain before colder weather returns. There
remains a low chance for river/creek or ice jam flooding, but
chances continue to decrease with time.

The next area of low pressure will bring another round of widespread
rain this afternoon into tonight, with additional forecast rainfall
amounts of 0.25-0.50" expected. The higher amounts are expected to
fall across the eastern Lake Ontario region, with possibly up to
0.75" on the southern/southwestern slopes of the Tug Hill. The
combination of manageable rainfall amounts and breaks in between
each bout of rain continues to keep area creeks and streams within
their banks. All area creeks and streams are now below Action Stage
and are not expected to rise back to those levels. MMEFS data
supports this as well, so risk of even minor flooding looks minimal.
Colder air returns by Sunday, mitigating any further hydro issues.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next storm system will bring a period of gusty
winds later tonight and Sunday. The threat for any impact from a
wintry mix across the North Country continues to lower as
temperatures appear a bit warmer across the Tug Hill Plateau and
Saint Lawrence Valley this evening...possibly starting as a brief
period of mixed rain/sleet/snow late this afternoon/early evening
before quickly going over to plain rain.

Primary area of low pressure will lift northeast across the central
Great Lakes tonight, while a secondary coastal low develops and
tracks northeastward along the New England coastline. The primary
low will push its trailing cold front across our region this
evening, followed by a reinforcing secondary cold front as it tracks
across southern Ontario and Quebec on Sunday.

Warm advection/isentropic upglide out ahead of this system will
result in a swath of fairly widespread precipitation spreading
across the area from south to north this afternoon and evening, with
a mild enough airmass in place to allow the bulk of this to fall in
the form of just plain rain out ahead of the approaching cold front.
Will continue the mention for a brief wintry mix at the onset across
the Tug Hill and far northern Jefferson County, however thermal
profiles are a bit warmer with the latest guidance, thus expect
minimal impacts with little more than a brief period of mixed
rain/sleet/snow at the onset before quickly transitioning over to
plain rain this evening.

In the wake of the cold frontal passage this evening, increasing
cold advection will support effective downward transport of higher
momentum air from aloft down to the surface tonight and Sunday,
resulting in another round of rather windy conditions during this
time frame. The strongest winds look to come in two batches...one
immediately behind the cold front tonight, and then another on
Sunday out ahead of an approaching secondary cold front/upper level
trough axis. Given the placement of the strongest winds aloft over
western New York for much of this time frame, the best potential for
advisory-worthy winds still looks to lie across the typical areas
ENE of Lake Erie, extending from from Chautauqua County
northeastward across the Niagara Frontier over to the Rochester
area. Within this region, 35-45 knot winds at 925 mb should get
mixed down to the surface fairly well. Thus a Wind Advisory remains
in effect for this area from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Several periods of short-duration lake effect
snow...Sunday into the first half of Sunday night and again from
later Monday morning into Monday night. Winds gusting up to 35 to 45
mph will cause blowing and drifting snow.

Synoptic moisture wrapping around a departing mid level trough,
combined with cold air advection, rising lake inversion heights and
low level wind convergence will bring a return to lake effect snow
Sunday through Sunday night. Initially bands look to start northeast
of both Lakes, then focus east of the lakes through the day Sunday
as temperatures aloft cool sufficiently behind a secondary trough
for band development. A mid level trough and attendant surface cold
front will cause winds to veer to the northwest by later Sunday
afternoon and evening, weakening and dropping the snow bands
southeast of the lakes through Sunday night. A surface ridge aloft
and at 850 hPa will push across Lake Erie later Sunday night and
Monday morning across Lake Ontario, backing winds and diminishing
lake snows to light snow showers or flurries.

After a brief lull with the passage of the surface ridge, another
mid level shortwave trough will ripple across the Great Lakes Monday
and Monday night. Within a now warm air advection pattern,
widespread but light snow will be embedded with lake enhanced bands
of snow off both Lakes on a west to southwest wind flow. Given the
pattern, snow will likely be mainly light east/northeast of Lake
Erie, although there could be nuisance inch or so during the morning
commute across the Buffalo Metro. However, east of Lake Ontario,
expect a second round of more moderate lake snows developing around
midday and persisting into Monday night.

With the above in mind, have issued Winter Weather Advisories as
outlined below.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday
night through Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and
mixed precipitation.

A potent mid-level trough will dive and dig out across the Great
Lakes and Eastern Seaboard Tuesday night through Thursday,
supporting a deepening surface low passing northwest of the forecast
area. An associated strengthening low-level jet of around 55 knots
will pass across the region along with some warm air to advect into
the region, as such gusty, southwest winds will be possible Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Additionally, with the passage of this low,
expect some initial light precipitation of rain or combination of a
rain/snow mix or all snow across the higher elevations Tuesday night
through Wednesday. With the passage of a cold front Wednesday, and
the arrival of cold air in its wake all precipitation will turn over
to snow Wednesday night.

There continues to remain some forecast uncertainty with the track
and depth of this system, which will play a factor in the strength
of the winds. However, given how the upper level trough will
encompass much of the Eastern portions of the CONUS, there is
greater certainty pertaining the return of cold air for the later
half of the week, supporting 850mb temperatures to become cold
enough to support a lake response by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread rain will continue this evening before rapidly tapering
off from west to east late evening through the early overnight as a
dry slot moves quickly into the eastern Great Lakes. Widespread
MVFR/IFR CIGS will last through the evening during the rain, but
CIGS will improve to VFR for lower elevations overnight following
the end of the rain. Some MVFR CIGS will persist across higher
terrain. It will become quite windy late evening through the
overnight with gusts of 25 to 35 knots, strongest northeast of Lake
Erie. There may be a few sporadic gusts near 40 knots, but these
will be brief.

Gusty winds will continue Sunday with gusts in the 25 to 35 knot
range and a few sporadic gusts near 40 knots. A strong mid level
trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes late morning through mid
afternoon, producing areas of snow showers and occasional IFR VSBY.
Lake enhancement will bring more persistent snow east of Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario with a longer period of IFR.

Outlook...

Monday...Lingering lake effect snow showers east of the lakes with
local MVFR/IFR, otherwise VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, with few rain and higher elevation wet snow
showers (with attendant MVFR/IFR) possible.

Wednesday...MVFR with a mix of rain and snow showers...with IFR
possible in any snow showers.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with localized lake effect snow showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds will continue to increase on the central and western
basins of Lake Ontario through early evening ahead of a second storm
system lifting northeastward through the central Great Lakes. This
will bring greater wave action to the western Lake Ontario waters
this afternoon into early this evening, before another round of more
widespread southwesterly to westerly gales arrives in the wake of
cold front this evening through Sunday.

Looking further out through the first half of next week, elevated
southwesterly to westerly flow looks to continue, with at least
advisory-level conditions persisting across the Lower Lakes the
majority of the time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ001>003-010>012-019-
     085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday
     for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday
     for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ/JM/JJR/Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...JM/JJR