Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

276
FXUS61 KBUF 150627
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
127 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
One more round of lake enhanced snow will bring light to moderate
accumulations today through this evening east and northeast of Lake
Erie including the Buffalo area, and moderate to locally heavy
accumulations east of Lake Ontario. The lake effect snow will taper
off east of Lake Erie overnight, and by late Tuesday morning east of
Lake Ontario. A warming trend will then develop through the middle
of the week with less active weather. A strong cold front will then
cross the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night, bringing strong, gusty
winds and a period of rain. Much colder air will pour back into the
region Friday with lake effect snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A northwest flow of cold air continues to support areas of light
lake effect and upslope snow showers southeast of the lakes early
this morning. Boundary layer flow will back to the WSW through the
morning hours, carrying lake effect snow northward off both lakes.
The pure lake effect regime will evolve into lake enhanced snow
today as another clipper shortwave and surface cold front moves east
across the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon.

Off Lake Erie...

Weak upslope flurries and light snow showers will become better
organized again this morning on westerly flow across the western
Southern Tier. This may produce a fresh 1-2" of accumulation across
Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus counties this morning.

The band of lake enhanced snow will then move north to the Buffalo
Metro area from late morning through this evening. The band of snow
will likely broaden out over a larger footprint for several hours
this afternoon near the time of the trough passage when synoptic
scale moisture and ascent peak, before contracting back to a more
localized lake effect band this evening and settling back south
before mostly dissipating overnight. If the lake response lasts long
enough through Tuesday morning, there may be some risk of a period
of freezing drizzle as inversion heights lower and deep moisture is
stripped away, leaving behind a cloud bearing layer lacking ice
nuclei.

As far as accumulations go, expect a general 2-4" in the area of
lake enhancement across the Niagara Frontier, with some local 5"
reports possible where the lake snow lasts the longest.

Off Lake Ontario...

Weak multiple bands in northwest flow early this morning will
consolidate back into a more concentrated area of accumulating snow
across northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga counties by mid morning,
with this band then moving northeast across Oswego County late
morning through early afternoon before ending up in Jefferson County
and the northern Tug Hill by mid afternoon. The band should reach
its strongest late afternoon through the evening hours across
southern Jefferson County and the northwest portion of the Tug Hill
Plateau, with 2" per hour snowfall rates possible. Expect a
weakening trend by late tonight as inversion heights begin to lower
and better synoptic scale moisture moves off.

As far as accumulations go, expect an additional few inches in Wayne
County this morning, and 3-6" across far northern Cayuga County and
much of Oswego County as the band swings northeast across the area.
Far northern Oswego County may see 6-10" if the stronger phase of
the band this evening clips the county. The greatest accumulations
will be found across southern Jefferson County and the northwest
portion of the Tug Hill Plateau, with 8-16" in the most persistent
band.

Outside of the main lake effect areas, the passing clipper cold
front and trough will produce a few light snow showers this
afternoon with a dusting of accumulation in spots. It will become
windy enough near Lake Erie and across the Niagara Frontier to
support some blowing snow in open areas from late morning through
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As a shortwave trough exits the Northeast coast Tuesday, a more
zonal and progressive flow pattern will spread across the eastern
United States. Initially, surface high pressure centered over the
Southeastern Atlantic Coast ridging northward across the eastern
Great Lakes Tuesday morning. Ongoing lake effect snow, east of Lake
Ontario will continue to peter out and push north across the
Watertown metro area through Tuesday afternoon. Additional snow
amounts of up to an inch will be possible.

Aforementioned surface high pressure will slide east off of the
Atlantic coast Tuesday night supporting, strong warm air advection
will ensue aloft. Overall, dry weather and seasonable weather is
expected Tuesday night.

Heading into Wednesday, the next weak trough will slide east across
the eastern Great Lakes supporting a weak cold front to pass across
western and north central New York. Ahead of the frontal passage,
warm air advection will support temperatures to rise above normal.
Additionally associated with the frontal passage, chances for a few
rain showers and higher elevation snow showers, mainly east of Lake
Ontario.

A transient ridge will pass across the region Wednesday night,
supporting another brief period of dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep southwesterly flow ensues across the region Thursday as a
sharp, but progressive mid/upper level trough digs south across the
upper Mississippi Valley. Strong warm air advection and deeper
moisture streaming in from the south ahead of this feature will
bring the likelihood of mainly rain showers by Thursday afternoon as
temperatures rise into the upper 30s and 40s. It will also become
very windy as a 60-70 knot southerly low-level jet moves across the
area. Being that the jet is in the warm air advection side of the
system, expect only partial mixing down of the winds aloft. That
said, a very tight pressure gradient setting up across the area due
to strong low pressure moving into the upper Great Lakes will bring
the potential for strong winds, especially across downslope areas.

A round of rain and wind is then expected Thursday night as a strong
cold front plows across the area. Rain will rapidly change to snow
behind the front due to a shot of much colder air moves in behind
the boundary. 40-50 knot low-level jet lingers in the cold air
advection regime as deepening low pressure pulls northeast into
southern Quebec, so expect gusty winds for Thursday night and Friday
as well, with temperatures feeling much more like winter once again
to finish out the work week. Some potential lake effect snow on
Friday as well with much colder air in place. This powerful system
and cold front will need to be monitored closely over the coming
days for potential impactful weather (especially strong winds)
across western and north central area.

The roller coaster of temperatures will continue through the
weekend, as a strong warm front pushes across the region boosting
temperatures back towards normal Saturday, before falling back
towards normal Sunday with the passage of a cold front. With the
frontal passages, brings the chance for rain/higher terrain snow
showers Saturday and snow showers Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Northwest flow will continue to support weak lake effect and upslope
snow showers southeast of the lakes early this morning with areas of
IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS, especially southeast of Lake Ontario from
west of KROC to KFZY and southward into the Finger Lakes.

A clipper trough and cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes
today, forcing boundary layer flow to back to the WSW. This will
allow lake effect snow to become better organized and move to
east/northeast of both lakes.

Off Lake Erie, expect lake effect snow to organize over the western
Southern Tier this morning including KJHW, then move northward to
the Niagara Frontier including KBUF and KIAG by midday, with areas
of IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS. The snow will be most organized this
afternoon and evening before shrinking in coverage and diminishing
in intensity while settling south of KBUF overnight.

Off Lake Ontario, snow southeast of the lake will consolidate into a
more organized band this morning east of KROC and west of KFZY with
IFR/LIFR. This band will move northeast across Oswego County late
morning through early afternoon before reaching Jefferson County and
the northern Tug Hill by mid afternoon. This band will become
heaviest this evening with local VLIFR in the band just south of
Watertown, with IFR/LIFR impacting KART on the northern edge of the
band.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Local IFR in lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario early,
otherwise improving to VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with a chance for a few rain/snow
showers and MVFR east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing along
with strong southerly winds. Rain changes to snow late Thursday
night along a cold front passage. Strong winds veer from southerly
to westerly.

Friday...Localized IFR in lake effect snow east/southeast of the
lakes. Otherwise MVFR/VFR with scattered light snow showers. Gust
westerly to northwesterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will back to the southwest and increase today as a clipper
cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes, bringing solid Small Craft
Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will
gradually diminish late tonight through Tuesday, but still remain at
or near Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Another cold front passes the lower Great Lakes Tuesday night
through Wednesday, with sustained winds increasing to 30 knots on
both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with a small chance of a brief
period of gales.

Strong low pressure will move across Ontario and Quebec Thursday
through Friday, with a trailing powerful cold front crossing the
lower Great Lakes late Thursday night. Southerly winds will increase
to gale force Thursday ahead of the cold front, then swing around to
westerly Friday behind the front with gales likely continuing on
both lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ001-002-010>012-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ004.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ005.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ/JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock