Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

673
FXUS61 KBUF 131858
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
258 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A few stronger storms may produce gusty winds this afternoon
from the interior Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and southern
Tug Hill regions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool weather and periods of showers will continue today and
tonight, with a line of showers and thunderstorms forming along
and just ahead of a cold front as it crosses the region this
afternoon.

2) Unsettled and very cool weather will continue Thursday through
Thursday night.

3) A notable warming trend will start Friday, then gain momentum
over the weekend with summer-like heat by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool weather and periods of showers will continue
today and tonight, with a line of showers and thunderstorms forming
along and just ahead of a cold front as it crosses the region this
afternoon.

Deepening mid and upper level trough will continue to dig from the
central Great Lakes into the lower Great Lakes region today into
tonight. In the process, the mid level circulation will close off as
the system becomes vertically stacked. This will act to slow the
systems` progression as it drifts slowly southeastward, eventually
right over NYS later tonight. The associated surface low will drift
slowly east, just to the north of Lake Ontario today, then southward
across NYS later tonight.

A line of strong showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
eastward through WNY this afternoon ahead of a surface cold front. A
few of these storms could be severe with damaging wind gusts the
main threat. Otherwise, expect a west to east drying trend in the
wake of the cold front through the afternoon into this evening for
much of the area. However, the cold front is expected to stall out
just east of the area tonight, keeping the potential for a few
shower going east of Lake Ontario through much of the overnight.
Meanwhile, as the mid level and associated surface low slowly pivot
southeast across NYS, cool moist W to NW flow on the back side of
the system will combine with some limited lake enhancement to bring
chances for showers back in across far western NY late tonight,
especially across favored upslope areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled and very cool weather will continue
Thursday through Thursday night.

A mid level closed low will gradually move southeast across NY/PA on
Thursday. The associated surface low just north of Lake Ontario in
the morning will dissipate, giving way to secondary coastal
cyclogenesis near the New York Bight by Thursday afternoon. The
conveyor of deep moisture with this system will be well east of the
area over eastern NY and New England Thursday, leaving more shallow
wrap around moisture over the eastern Great Lakes. Cool air aloft,
steepening lapse rates, and increasing northwest upslope flow will
support a few showers at times, with the best coverage likely found
across the western Southern Tier and Lewis County.

A few showers will continue tomorrow night into early Friday
morning, with the best coverage east of Lake Ontario in closer
proximity to Atlantic moisture advecting westward around the
northern periphery of the vertically stacked low off the southern
New England coast. Additional rainfall amounts will be light. Rain
chances then mostly end by daybreak Friday as drier high pressure
ridges in from the southwest.

Well below normal temperatures are expected tomorrow, with highs
only in the low to mid 50s for lower elevations and upper 40s for
higher terrain, close to 15 degrees below average. Lows Thursday
night will drop back into the low to mid 40s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A notable warming trend will start Friday, then gain
momentum over the weekend with summer-like heat by early next week.

The very cool temperatures Thursday will give way to the start of a
warming trend by Friday as the mid level low moves away, with some
sunshine and weak warm advection beginning. Highs will recover into
the 60s and close to average by Friday afternoon.

A notable pattern change will begin across the CONUS this weekend
and mature early next week as a trough digs into the Rockies,
forcing a downstream ridge to build eastward across the central and
eastern CONUS. Persistent warm advection will bring an extended
period of above average warmth starting Saturday and lasting through
at least Tuesday. Highs over the weekend will be in the 70s, with
80s for Monday and Tuesday away from lake influences. Some of the
normally warmer locations may reach the upper 80s to lower 90s
Monday and Tuesday.

In addition to the building warmth, it will be relatively dry
through the period with just a low chance of a few spotty showers
from Saturday through Monday from passing weak shortwaves. A better
chance of showers and thunderstorms may arrive by late Tuesday or
Tuesday night as a cold front moves through the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Buffalo
forecast area ahead of a passing cold front. Thunderstorms should
miss most of the terminals, except KROC early on. Mainly VFR
conditions found across the area early will lower to MVFR CIGs this
evening as a moist cyclonic flow develops over the region with low
pressure settling over the area. Winds out of the south to southwest
will veer to the west through the late afternoon and into the
evening behind a passing cold front.

Flight categories (CIGs) will continue to lower to the IFR/MVFR
range tonight with the cool cyclonic flow continuing. The lowest
CIGs are expected for the higher terrain of the Tug Hill & Western
Southern Tier where some LIFR CIGs are possible after Midnight.
Winds will weaken across the area, remaining mainly out of the west,
except for eastern portions of the area where more variability will
be possible with a sfc low passing just to the north. Behind the
earlier more organized showers/storms, only a few scattered showers
are expected overnight.

Thursday, after some morning improvement, flight CIGs will remain on
the lower side for most of the day with moist cyclonic flow
continuing. CIGs in the lower end MVFR to upper IFR range is
expected for most of the terminals, with the lower CIGs expected for
areas of higher terrain south of Lake Ontario. A few showers will be
possible at times, but should be limited in coverage at any given
time.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Areas of IFR/MVFR with showers likely at times.

Friday...A chance of showers, mainly east of Lake Ontario. Areas of
MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds associated with a passing cold front are expected to continue
to bring low end Small Craft Advisory level winds to the area
through the afternoon and into the evening. Earlier winds out of the
south and southwest will veer to the west and northwest at times as
a sfc low associated with the passing front crosses just north of
Lake Ontario.

Winds are expected to weaken to below SCA levels later this
evening and into the overnight as the passing sfc low and
associated pressure gradient weakens. Winds are expected to
remain below advisory levels through the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW