Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

491
FXUS61 KBUF 231916
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
216 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Storm Warning was issued for heavy snow across western NY
Sunday through Monday, and areas southeast of Lake Ontario and
the Eastern Lake Ontario region Sunday through Monday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A band of locally heavy lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will
move south across the southern shore of Lake Ontario counties
through tonight, while snow showers weaken east of Lake Erie.

2) Dangerously cold airmass will last into Sunday morning.

3) Widespread heavy snow expected Sunday and Sunday night, with wrap
around lake effect/enhanced snow through at least Monday.

4) Following the widespread snow, moderate to heavy lake effect snow
is possible off Lake Ontario Monday night through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A band of locally heavy lake effect snow off Lake
Ontario will move south across the southern shore of Lake Ontario
counties through tonight, while snow showers weaken east of Lake
Erie.

Regional radar shows multiple bands of lake effect snow extending
off the Great Lakes as an arctic airmass builds into the region this
afternoon. Locally, lake effect snow will become weaker with the
passage of a trough axis through tonight.

A deep closed low over Quebec will move east through tonight. A
cold, uni-directional westerly flow in a moist environment has
fueled an intense single lake effect band on Lake Ontario
today. Snowfall rates of 1-3" per hour will continue across
Oswego county this afternoon. A wind shift will cause the band
to move south through this evening with heavy snow moving into
the counties south of Lake Ontario. A sudden burst of snow will
occur from Orleans to northern Cayuga counties before the band
weakens and becomes more multi-band with a shorter fetch and
diminishing winds. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for
the southern shore of Lake Ontario counties tonight.

A westerly flow continues across Lake erie with upslope snow showers
and multiple bands of lake effect snow across the western Southern
Tier. Snow showers will weaken through the evening hours with 1-2
inches of additional accumulation.

Gusty winds will support blowing and drifting snow, especially in
open spaces.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold airmass will last into Sunday
morning.

Strong cold advection will force temperatures to drop into the
single digits from west to east today. Lows tonight will bottom out
in the single digits above and below zero in most areas, and teens
below zero for the North Country that will miss the benefit of the
warming influence of the lakes. Highs will eventually recover to the
single digits and lower teens by late Saturday afternoon.

Wind chills will bottom out in the 15 to 20 below zero range on the
lake plains, and 20 to 25 below across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. The North Country will be coldest,
with wind chills dropping to near 30 below at times. The worst wind
chills will be later today through tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread heavy snow expected Sunday and Sunday
night, with wrap around lake effect/enhanced snow through at least
Monday.

The forecast for Western and North-Central NY remains on track for
the major winter storm that will impact a truly impressive swath of
the CONUS. Models and their respective ensembles remain in good
agreement on the track and overall timing of the storm, with just a
few subtle differences noted in the intensity of the secondary low
that will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday. Being well to
the north of the two sfc lows and the sandwiched trough extending
down the spine of the Appalachians, we will remain clear of the
warmer air intruding to our south and southeast, with very high
confidence in precipitation type remaining all snow across the CWA.
Behind the system, cold air will remain locked in place with
reinforcing moisture promoting lake effect and upslope snows through
Monday, and likely into Monday night as well. With confidence
continuing to increase in the general forecast, the previous Watch
has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for the entire region.

Timing...Some potential lingering lake snows near the southern Lake
Ontario shoreline Saturday night as the synoptic snow begins its
initial push into the forecast area from the south. Still a bit of
uncertainty in exact onset time, though by daybreak much of the
Southern Tier should be seeing light to moderate snow, while areas
east of Lake Ontario will likely remain (synoptic) snow-free until
the early afternoon. Synoptic snows will then continue across the
entire area for most, if not through all of Sunday night. In the
wake of the system, winds will become northwesterly which should
direct multiple bands of weaker lake effect downwind of Lake Ontario
through Monday. This will continue the threat for lesser
accumulating snow just about everywhere through the day.

Amounts and Snowfall rates...Impressive northward moisture transport
overlapping with the right-entrance quadrant of an emerging strong
190+kt ULJ and incipient broad scale height falls will enhance
snowfall as the event progresses. The heaviest peak snowfall rates
(around 1" per hour) are generally expected areawide Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening, especially if and where mesoscale
banding sets up. For this synoptic portion of the event, a
widespread 7-12" is currently forecast, though locally higher
amounts will be possible. For the fairly widespread lake
effect/upslope portion Monday, an additional 2-4" may accumulate in
most areas, possibly a bit more southeast of the lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Following the widespread snow, moderate to heavy
lake effect snow is possible off Lake Ontario Monday night through
midweek.

The lake effect off Lake Ontario Monday night is expected to congeal
into an area southeast of the lake behind a passing 850mb ridge as
deep moisture increases and low level wind fields back. Despite the
passage of this ridge, temps aloft will dip back to near -20C, more
than cold enough for a solid lake response. The backing winds should
direct this more focused lake effect area due east of the lake late
Monday night into Tuesday. This lake effect is expected to persist
through midweek, though a passing clipper will likely cause the band
to make another southward push between Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Still a fair amount of uncertainty in the strength, track and timing
of this clipper so uncertainty is high in how the lake effect will
play out though there will be a potential for localized moderate to
heavy additional snowfall east and/or southeast of Lake Ontario.

For Lake Erie...The recent Arctic airmass over the Great Lakes has
caused the amount of ice coverage on the lake to rapidly increase
over the past week. With above-freezing temps nowhere to be found
and calming winds ahead of the major storm, this trend is expected
to continue. Will need to see how exactly the ice changes over next
couple of days, but the thickening and expanding coverage should
greatly mute the response from the lake throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect and upslope snow will continue east of Lake Erie today.
IFR or below conditions will be possible across KJHW through mid-
afternoon. Lake effect snow will diminish east of Lake Erie and
scattered flurries are possible this evening.

Heavy lake effect snow will continue off Lake Ontario today. The
eastern part of the band will make a quick jog northward before
moving south across Oswego county this afternoon. It is expected to
stay south of KART today. The western end of the band will sag
southward across the southern shore of Lake Ontario and persist
there tonight. IFR or below is expected in the band which will
likely reach KROC through tonight.

Lake effect snow showers are possible along the southern shore of
Lake Ontario Saturday morning, with localized MVFR/IFR at KROC.
Mainly VFR conditions expected elsewhere Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR in the afternoon.

Sunday...VFR deteriorating to widespread LIFR from south to north
with heavy snow developing.

Monday...LIFR in widespread moderate to heavy snow, diminishing
later in the day.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Localized lake effect snow and IFR southeast
of Lake Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW gales will continue on Lake Ontario today, with high end Small
Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie. High pressure will build
into the eastern Great Lakes tonight through Saturday, allowing for
the wind to finally diminish.

A light easterly flow will begin across the Lakes Sunday in response
to a large area of low pressure south of the region. East-northeast
flow will continue through Sunday night, before winds increase out
of the northwest by late Monday. Small Craft conditions are likely
on the western side of Lake Ontario Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Buffalo
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 23                         -11 (1976)                         5(1976)
January 24                         -11 (1976)                         1(1963)
January 25                         -14 (1884)                         5(1884)

Rochester
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 23                         -14 (1976)                         5(1976)
January 24                         -10 (1963)                         2(1963)
January 25                         -6  (1945)                         7(1884)

Watertown
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 23                         -31 (1976)                        -1(1976)
January 24                         -30 (2014)                         0(2004)
January 25                         -18 (2007)                         3(1992)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ001>006-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for
     NYZ002>005.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     NYZ003>008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ006>008.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK/PP
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK
CLIMATE...HSK