Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

128
FXUS61 KBUF 210758
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
258 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory issued for Niagara, Orleans, Erie,
Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany
counties.

Gale Watch issued for Lake Ontario late tonight through Friday
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake effect winds down northeast of Lake Ontario through mid
morning.

2) Widespread light snow and gusty winds today and tonight.

3) Additional lake effect snow and gusty winds expected Thursday and
Friday.

4) Dangerously cold airmass will arrive Friday and last through
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Lake effect winds down northeast of Lake Ontario
through mid morning.

Winds will continue to back to the southwest and then south through
mid morning in response to an approaching trough nearing the region.

Off Lake Ontario...Snow band currently extends northeast across
central Jefferson into far northern Lewis counties. The band will
weaken while continuing to lift northward into northern Jefferson
County before dissipating by mid morning or so ahead of a Clipper
system approaching from the west. Additional accumulations of 2-4
inches are possible across central and northern Jefferson County and
far northern Lewis County through mid morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread light snow and gusty winds today and
tonight.

A Clipper system will bring a light accumulating snow across the
region this afternoon through tonight. A general 2-5 inches is
expected across the Niagara Frontier and western Southern Tier for
which a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from noon today
through 7 AM Thursday. Expect 4-8 inches east of Lake Ontario, with
the highest amounts across the southern slopes of the Tug Hill. Much
lower snow amounts are expected across the Genesee Valley and Finger
Lakes region with generally an inch or two. In addition, a strong 50-
60 knot LLJ with move over the region within the warm sector. Though
mixing of higher winds aloft to the surface will be limited within
the WAA regime, still expect some wind gusts pushing 35 mph,
especially northeast of the lakes which will cause some blowing and
drifting snow. There may also be a period of localized stronger
downslope winds from the north of the Chautauqua Ridge down to the
Lake Erie shore with gusts possibly approaching 40 mph late this
morning through mid afternoon, with a similar scenario downwind of
the northern slopes of the Tug Hill later this afternoon into this
evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Additional lake effect snow and gusty winds expected
Thursday and Friday.

An Arctic front will swing across the region Thursday morning
bringing a fresh batch of very cold Arctic air to the region. This
will set the stage for another round of lake effect snows Thursday
into Friday. Main lake bands will focus east and east-northeast of
the lakes under a general west-southwesterly to westerly low level
flow.

With this next lake effect event, the better environment by far will
be over Lake Ontario, where substantially deeper moisture and a
fetch parallel/near parallel to the long axis of the lake will be in
place. Convergence into the expected Lake Ontario band will be
further augmented by a lake-aggregate thermally-enhanced surface
trough Thursday night into Friday. Setup appears sufficient for
another round of significant accumulations from near/just south of
the Watertown area to the Tug Hill, with the band then drifting
southward across the south shore of the lake and giving way to
weaker multi-banded lake snows later Friday and Friday evening as
winds veer following the trough passage. Winter Storm Warning for
the eastern Lake Ontario Region remains in effect through Friday
evening.

In comparison, the environment over Lake Erie appears to feature
much shallower moisture, with a bit more in the way of oscillations
in the low-level flow which will have a tendency to move the lake
snows around somewhat more compared to those off Lake Ontario.
Coupling this with increasing ice coverage, confidence in
significant accumulations from the Lake Erie lake effect remains
substantially lower, with more of an advisory-type event appearing
possible at this point for later on in the week. With this in mind,
will continue to hold off on any additional winter headlines for
this area for the time being.

In addition to the lake snows, the cold air advection regime in the
wake of the cold front will combine with a relatively tight pressure
gradient and a 925-850 mb layer flow of 35-45 knots to produce gusty
winds throughout much of this period, with the strongest winds/
gusts most likely during the daytime periods of both Thursday and
Friday. Still some uncertainty in the exact magnitude and timing of
the periods of stronger flow aloft, but feel that at a minimum we
should see gusts of 30-40 mph being fairly commonplace both days.
The strongest winds will be in the typical areas downwind of the
lakes, where gusts to 45-50 mph (marginal low-end advisory criteria)
may be a possibility.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Dangerously cold airmass will arrive Friday and
last through the weekend.

An anomalously strong deep-layer ridge off the west coast of North
America (+PNA pattern) will extend northward across Alaska and
towards the arctic circle, allowing for polar air to slide southward
across Canada, with the cold air supporting a strong +2 to +3 SD
1050 mb surface high pressure over the northern Plains Friday. This
pattern will result in 850 mb temperatures falling to -25C to -28C
across our region Friday night through Saturday. We can expect
dangerously cold to arrive Friday and last through the weekend
with highs largely in the single digits, and overnight lows
around/slightly below zero both Friday and Saturday nights south
of Lake Ontario, and possibly to as low as the negative 20s
across the North Country. Coupled with forecast winds, this will
result in the likelihood of at least widespread Cold Weather
Advisories.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake snows off both lakes will continue to lift north this morning
bringing a period of IFR/MVFR to KBUF/KIAG and IFR/LIFR to
KART. The lake bands will be weakening as they lift north with
conditions likely improving to VFR by 12z. Elsewhere, conditions
will be largely VFR this morning.

An approaching clipper system will spread snow across the area
from west to east, resulting in visibilities/ceilings
deteriorating to IFR/MVFR respectively this afternoon.

Outlook...
Tonight...IFR/MVFR in fairly widespread light snow showers.

Thursday...Lake effect snow east and northeast of the lakes with
IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR/brief IFR outside of lake effect areas
within snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...MVFR with areas of IFR. Chance of snow
showers, especially east and southeast of the lakes in lake effect
snow showers.

Sunday...MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest to south winds of 20-30 knots behind a warm front today
and tonight, with winds shifting more westerly by Thursday behind a
cold front. Westerly winds will strengthen Thursday and Friday as
another round of arctic air spreads across the region. Gale force
winds are possible on Lake Ontario during this time period,
with a Gale watch issued. Winds should be slightly lower on
Lake Erie, but still near 30 knots at times. Winds should lower
some this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 7 AM EST Thursday
     for NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for
         LOZ042>045.
         Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/JM/JJR/Thomas/TMA
AVIATION...AR/JJR/TMA
MARINE...AR/JJR/TMA