Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

336
FXUS61 KBUF 021043
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
643 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch for southern Erie, Wyoming, Livingston, and Ontario
counties and the western Southern Tier has been cancelled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Risk of showers and a few thunderstorms today and Friday, but
additional flooding is not expected.

2) Increasing confidence in another round of rain and embedded
thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Risk of showers and a few thunderstorms today and
Friday, but additional flooding is not expected.

Frontal boundary to our south will lift back northward as a warm
front today. Scattered showers will develop with the approach of the
front, mainly this afternoon. Marginal instability could support a
low chance of thunderstorms across western New York.

Warm front will continue to push through tonight and Friday as a
shortwave trough approaches the region. Additional showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms are possible through the period. Basin
rainfall average generally less than a quarter inch Thursday through
Friday, with any additional creek or river flooding unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing confidence in another round of rain and
embedded thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.

Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Saturday will send a
cold front through the region Saturday night. Deep plume of Gulf
moisture working northward ahead of the front will support a period
of widespread rain and a few embedded thunderstorms. Precipitable
water values nearing 1.5 inches suggesting the potential for heavy
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS light northeasterly flow is found across the
region, with MVFR stratus to the south and closer to a stalled
frontal boundary, with VFR flight conditions to the north where
surface high pressure is funneling in a drier airmass.

For today the frontal boundary to our south will begin to lift
northward as a warm front. This will return rain showers to our
region and perhaps a rumble of thunder later this morning and
through the afternoon hours. More widespread MVFR ceilings will
occur with the approach of the warm front today.

As the surface warm front lifts northward across our region, winds
will become southeasterly...with this downslope flow eventually eroding
the lower clouds for KBUF/KIAG and KROC...while higher
elevations of the Southern Tier (KJHW) and east of Lake Ontario
(KART) will likely remain with the lower clouds in IFR/MVFR
range.

Tonight a few rain showers will linger across the region with lower
flight conditions in the IFR/MVFR flight range remaining near the
Southern Tier and Tug Hill region. A LLJ will strengthen overnight,
with 50 to 60 knots of flow the second half of the night. A base of
40 to 45 knots at 2K will lead to LLWS in the TAF for tonight.

Outlook...

Periods of rain with non-VFR are expected Friday through Sunday.
Occasional thunderstorms are possible through Saturday night.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to strong east-northeast winds will continue on both Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario through today. This will lead to a round of small
craft advisory conditions. Following the passage of a warm front,
freshening southerlies appear likely across the eastern portion of
Lake Ontario tonight, and may require a Small Craft Advisory.

Elevated southwest winds expected Friday. Otherwise, the next period
of concern will be Saturday night into Monday, as a cold front
ushers in west winds of 20 to 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed during this time period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Several creeks and rivers will remain in flood today, including
the Tonawanda Creek which has fallen to minor flood stage at
Batavia, but is forecast to peak in moderate flood stage at
Rapids. Several additional creeks and rivers will remain in
minor flood as displayed on FLWBUF/FLSBUF statements. Some of
the slower responding creeks such as Tonawanda Creek likely to
remain in flood through Friday night.

MMEFS of the NAEFS and the GEFS ensembles showing the
additional rainfall late this week and into the weekend could
impact the Black River by early next week, possibly reaching
minor flood stage at Watertown and Boonville.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...TMA