Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

871
FXUS61 KBUF 010525
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
125 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity through Friday, then slowly lessening
heat/humidity for the holiday weekend.

2) Showers and thunderstorms possible at times through the weekend,
a few of which may be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity through Friday, then
slowly lessening heat/humidity for the holiday weekend.

A strong and dominant mid/upper level ridge will remain centered on
the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic through the end of the work week,
supporting a continuation of oppressive heat and humidity across our
region. 850MB temps will continue to run in the +20C to +22C range
today through Thursday, with just a slight pull back by Friday.

High temperatures will be solidly in the mid 90s for lower
elevations away from lake influences today and Thursday, with a few
upper 90s readings in the typical warm spots. Even the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier and North Country will be near 90.

Surface dewpoints will continue to run in the low to mid 70s,
resulting in dangerous heat index values. The peak heat index each
afternoon will likely reach the 104 to 108 range in the Extreme Heat
Warning areas, and the 98 to 104 range in the Heat Advisory areas.
The Buffalo Metro area and Jefferson County will continue to benefit
from southwest flow off the cooler lakes over the next few days, but
it will still be very warm and humid nonetheless.

The center of the mid/upper level ridge will begin to retreat back
into the southeast US over the weekend, allowing for a frontal zone
to sag southward across the Great Lakes. This will bring some modest
relief to the heat and humidity, with highs back in the mid to upper
80s Saturday, and low to mid 80s Sunday. It will still be muggy, but
not quite as oppressive as the next few days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms possible at times through
the weekend, a few of which may be strong to severe.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move southeast
across Central NY through the wee hours of the morning. The western
end of these storms will likely clip portions of the Genesee Valley
and Finger Lakes. A few storms may contain gusty winds and brief
torrential downpours. This line of storms will likely exit the area
before daybreak. It will then be mainly dry for most areas through
the morning hours, although a few spotty showers and thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out east of Lake Ontario with warm advection atop
the residual cold pool from the overnight convection.

The setup remains similar today through tonight, with our area
situated near the northern edge of the strong ridge with northwest
flow from the upper Great Lakes to northern New England. Heat and
humidity will allow for a reservoir of strong instability to persist
over and upstream of our area. Convectively modulated shortwaves
will continue to traverse the top of the ridge from the upper Great
Lakes to southern Quebec and northern New England, with each
providing an uptick in mesoscale ascent to support clusters of
showers and thunderstorms.

For our area, the most likely location for one or two more rounds of
showers and thunderstorms is east of Lake Ontario and the Saint
Lawrence Valley. Latest high-res CAMS guidance is in poor agreement
with the timing and placement of potential thunderstorms complexes,
but it appears the most likely time frame will be this evening
through tonight. For the rest of the area, expect mainly dry weather
today through tonight with southwest flow supporting a stable lake
shadow over and northeast of Lake Erie.

Thursday through Friday, expect a similar setup with several
complexes of showers and thunderstorms developing north and west of
our area, with difficult to time and place remnants possibly moving
into the eastern Great Lakes at times. A better chance of more
organized showers and thunderstorms will arrive this weekend as the
upper level ridge begins to break down, allowing and east-west
oriented frontal zone to sag slowly south across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A complex of thunderstorms will continue to move southeast through
Central NY during the overnight hours, with the western end of this
line possibly nearing KROC and the western Finger Lakes. This line
will produce heavy downpours and local IFR, along with gusty winds
and frequent lightning. These storms should mostly exit the area
before daybreak, with just a chance of a leftover shower or
thunderstorm through the morning hours east of Lake Ontario.

This afternoon through tonight, expect a similar setup to yesterday.
One or two clusters of showers and thunderstorms may develop across
Ontario and move east/southeast, possibly crossing the eastern Lake
Ontario region this evening through tonight. If these storms
materialize, they may produce local IFR, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning. The rest of the area is likely to stay mainly dry and VFR
today through tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms at times with local/brief MVFR/IFR conditions.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms
likely at times. Any thunderstorms will produce local/brief IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwesterlies will produce choppy conditions much of the
time today through Thursday on Lake Erie and portions of Lake
Ontario, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria. Winds will diminish by the end of the week as the pressure
gradient relaxes across the lower Great Lakes.

There will be a chance of a few thunderstorms at times, a few of
which may contain locally gusty winds and higher waves. The best
chance of thunderstorms today through tonight will be near the east
end of Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence River. More organized
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the weekend as a weak
cold front stalls over the Great Lakes.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dangerous heat and humidity are expected across western and
north central NY this week. Here are the record maximum and high
minimum temperatures for Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown.

                    7/1         7/2         7/3
Buffalo, NY
High Max          93(1963)    94(1966)    94(1949)
High Low          75(1901)    75(1931)    74(1911*)

Rochester, NY
High Max          96(1901)    99(1931)    100(1911)
High Low          76(1931)    76(1931*)   75(1911)

Watertown, NY
High Max          92(1967)    92(1966)    91(1966)
High Low          74(2014)    73(2002)    74(1973)


Average Temperatures for June 30-July 3
Buffalo
Max           79
Min           62

Rochester
Max           82
Min           62

Watertown
Max           78
Min           57

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ001>006-013-014.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ007-
     008-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
CLIMATE...Hitchcock