Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

369
FXUS61 KBUF 270002
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
702 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move from the southern Great Lakes to the Mid
Atlantic through tonight, bringing a variety of winter weather and
travel impacts to the region. Freezing drizzle will be found
across Western NY, with mainly snow east of Rochester to the
eastern Lake Ontario region. The snow will be heavy for several
hours early this evening across portions of Central NY. The snow
and mixed precipitation will quickly taper off from west to
east overnight, with high pressure bringing a return to dry
weather Saturday through Sunday morning. Another moisture laden
low pressure system will then cross the eastern Great Lakes late
Sunday through early Monday, with widespread soaking rainfall,
which may start as some freezing rain, especially east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A 1003mb low is centered over southwest NY this evening.
Composite reflectivity shows a swath of precipitation across
Lake Ontario into northern and central NY. A combination of
observations, spotter reports, and webcams shows a transition
zone from a wintry mix, snow, sleet, and freezing rain to all
snow across the Finger Lakes region this evening. Snowfall rates
of 1-2" per hour are expected from Wayne to Oswego and southern
Lewis counties this evening. A dry slot is building eastward
across western NY this evening, and freezing drizzle is
expected to continue this evening.

A mid level trough will move from the Great Lakes this evening
to New England by late tonight, with a relatively weak surface
low passing just south of the region. While the surface low and
mid level trough are rather innocuous looking, these features
will move through a very tightly packed thermal gradient,
resulting in strong frontogenesis in the 900-700MB layer. A
coupled upper level jet structure will further enhance large
scale ascent, and the overall synoptic scale setup is favorable
for northwest- southeast oriented mesoscale banding features
which will locally enhance precipitation rates and QPF.

The greatest impacts will continue through early to mid evening
before the heaviest precip quickly moves out.

Precipitation Type...

From Wayne County eastward, forecast soundings and model
consensus supports all snow. Over the southwest corner of NY,
there is high confidence in mostly freezing rain with some sleet
mixing in at times.

Between these two areas, covering all of the Niagara Frontier,
western Finger Lakes, farther east portions of the Southern Tier,
and possibly Rochester, precipitation type remains much more
uncertain. Forecast soundings suggest sleet may dominate much of the
time from the Niagara Frontier southeast into southern portions of
the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Rochester is right on
the edge of this, but may mix with sleet at times. This entire area
may see a little freezing rain or freezing drizzle towards the end
of the event as deeper moisture and ascent move away and remove ice
nuclei from the cloud bearing layer.

Snow Accumulations...

The greatest snow accumulations will be found across the eastern
half of the area where precip type stays all snow. In general,
expect 4-7" from near Rochester and Canandaigua eastward across the
eastern Lake Ontario region. Some areas may reach the 5-9" range and
edge into warning criteria. Based on an multi-model and time lagged
ensemble approach, the most likely area of higher amounts is Wayne,
northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties which have been upgraded to a
Winter Storm Warning. If the farther east model solutions verify,
Jefferson and Lewis counties will likely need to be upgraded. If
areas farther west stay all snow (such as the HRRR model) snowfall
amounts will be higher across Orleans, Monroe, and Ontario counties.

Snowfall rates may reach 2" per hour for a few hours through
early evening where the heaviest snow falls. The high snowfall
rates will not last long, but will be impactful to travel.

Ice Accumulations...

The southwest corner of NY will see the greatest ice amounts, with
freezing rain accumulation of 0.20" to 0.40" across portions of
Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and southern Erie counties, and 0.10" to
0.20" across Allegany County. A light glaze (less than 0.10") may
fall across the rest of Western NY, the Genesee Valley, and western
Finger Lakes.

The ice accumulations across the southwest corner of the state may
be enough to result in a few tree limbs and powerlines coming down
and isolated power outages.

A ridge of high pressure will build back into the region Saturday
through Saturday night, with a return to dry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The next impactful storm system will arrive Sunday, this as a ridge
of high pressure exits to the east and phasing jets to our west
carve a longwave trough. As a deepening surface low tracks across
the Midwest there will be copious amount of moisture streaming from
So Cal today and towards our region by Sunday, with +4 SD PWATS of
1.25" within an area of deep isentropic lift. If observed PWAT
values top an inch, they would be pushing record territory for the
last week of December for KBUF sounding climatology which dates back
to 1948.

A deep southerly flow of warm air ahead of the low (850 hPa
temperatures near +5 - +8C) will spell a period of rain, midday
Sunday and through the night, and not until the arrival of a cold
front Monday morning will temperatures and the air column cool
enough to support a change over to snow from west to east. Northeast
flow through the Saint Lawrence Valley Sunday into Sunday evening
may support subfreezing temperatures lingering and an occurrence of
freezing rain before surface temperatures warm above freezing.

Flooding concern...

Models continue to trend wetter, especially across WNY with this
system. The 00Z NAEFS has increased QPF to range now 0.75 to 1.25
inches which is similar to the GEFS model output. This amount of
rain, on top of snowmelt from the Friday system could push several
creeks and rivers to near flood stage, with Ellicott Creek and Cayuga
Creeks highlighted for highest potential. The window for this
occurrence for the flasher Buffalo Creeks would be Sunday afternoon
through late Monday...when falling temperatures below freezing slows
runoff and allows creek and river levels to begin to fall. If this
trend of a wetter solution continues flood watches may be needed.
For now will highlight this potential in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Impactful weather this period as temperatures aloft at 850 hPa drop
from +5-7C to the negative teens by Monday night behind a strong
cold front. Driving this cold front will be a -3SD surface low that
may reach sub 980 mb through Michigan and SE Ontario Canada. Rain
will change to snow later Monday behind a cold front, with the
deeper colder air triggering what may end being a prolonged period
of lake effect snow Monday night through the end of the period.

Wind concern...

The strong CAA Monday and Monday night with favorable momentum
transfer taping into a lingering 45 to 55 knot LLJ will bring
southwest to westerly winds gusting into 40 to 50 mph range, and
possibly higher northeast of Lake Erie. Southwest gusts early Monday
would not be great for trees, especially shallow rooted trees, that
may now be situated within a soggy ground. Additionally these winds,
combined with the lake effect snow will create blowing and drifting
snow, with very poor visibility expected within the lake effect snow
bands by Monday evening.

Lake effect snow...

A steady stream of arctic air over our region Monday afternoon
through the end of the week will maintain lake effect snow...perhaps
continuous right through the period. Several passing synoptic
features will oscillate these bands of snow, primarily east and
southeast of the Lakes (Lake Erie - Buffalo Southtowns/Ski Country/
and Lake Ontario- Tug Hill/SE of Lake Ontario) but there will be
times the snowbands lift northward across Buffalo and Watertown
through the week.

These synoptic features will enhance moisture which in turn will
increase the snowfall rates of the lake snow. The deformation
band/wrap around moisture behind the initial synoptic system will
linger over the lake effect snow Monday night. Shortwave troughs
Tuesday night and Wednesday night will again return deeper moisture
to our region which in addition to upstream connections at
times will add moisture to fuel these bands of oscillating snow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure over southwest NY this evening will move east
tonight. A swath of a wintry mix (freezing rain, sleet, and
snow) stretches from Lake Ontario and northern NY into central
NY this evening. Drier air will build into the region tonight,
however freezing drizzle will continue with low-level moisture
persisting overnight. Heavy snow will continue at KART through
this evening before ending late tonight. Widespread IFR/LIFR
will continue across the entire region tonight. Dry weather is
expected across the terminals Saturday. There will improvement
in flight conditions across the North Country (KART) Saturday
morning, with IFR or below conditions continuing across western
NY through Saturday morning. Flight conditions will slowly
improve across western NY Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR in the morning, deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain
developing from southwest to northeast. Freezing rain possible
across the North Country.

Monday...MVFR/IFR. Rain changing to snow early from west to east.
Localized heavier lake effect snow developing east of the lakes late.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with scattered snow
showers. Localized heavier lake effect snow and IFR/LIFR possible
east/southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to strong easterlies will continue on Lake Ontario this
evening before diminishing overnight through Saturday morning.

A strong cold front will cross the lower great Lakes Sunday night
into Monday. Westerly gales are likely with possible storm force
gusts Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for NYZ001>003-
     007-008-010>014-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for NYZ004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/HSK
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock/HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK