Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

465
FXUS61 KBUF 301833
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
133 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passing into eastern Canada today will continue to send
colder air into the region. Bands of lake effect snow southeast of
the lower Great Lakes will transition to east of the lakes tonight
into Wednesday, with localized heavy snowfall. Outside of lake
enhanced areas, widespread snowfall will spread across the area
Wednesday afternoon and evening with a cold frontal passage
Wednesday night. Lake snows will linger through late this week into
the weekend across western and north-central New York with
localized heavy snowfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Multiple bands of heavy lake effect snowfall continue southeast of
the lakes Tuesday shifting northward overnight into early Wednesday:

Lake snows today southeast of the lakes have become slightly less
organized than earlier in the morning, especially off Lake Erie,
with a slot of drier air noted on GOES WV imagery. Upstream
connections to Georgian Bay has resulted in an intense band that has
settled across Orleans and Monroe Co prompting the need for Winter
Weather Advisory issuance late this morning. Northwest winds gusting
35-45 mph has continued to lead to areas of blowing snow, but winds
will continue to drop off through Tuesday afternoon. On the back
side of the large scale upper level system over eastern Canada, GOES
WV imagery shows a shortwave dropping south towards southwestern
Ontario passing through this afternoon that will continue to lift
snow bands northward through tonight with gradual backing of
boundary layer flow. This will bring lake snows east of the lakes
Tuesday night with additional synoptic moisture moving in from
the west ahead of the clipper system dropping southeast across
the Great Lakes. While lake-induced ELs will slightly drop late
Tuesday afternoon into the early evening with this shortwave
passage, added synoptic moisture will help reinvigorate bands
east of the lakes headed into Wednesday with rates increasing
towards 1-2" per hour in the heaviest portion of the band
resulting in an additional 1-2 feet of snowfall off Lake Erie
and off Lake Ontario possible within the most persistent lake
bands through Wednesday evening. The band off Lake Ontario will
take advantage of westerly flow for a long fetch distance and
upstream connections to Lake Huron that could aid in heavier
snowfall across the Tug Hill. This will persist into Wednesday
evening with a cold frontal passage disrupting lake snows.
Behind the cold front, lingering lake snows focus again
southeast of the lakes through early Thursday morning with
veering boundary layer winds.


Widespread snowfall expected for New Year`s Eve outside of the main
lake enhancement in western NY with a passing clipper system:

Broad synoptic forcing will be present overhead with the upper level
jet dropping southeast across the midwest supporting of snowfall
developing outside of the main lake effect bands Wednesday
afternoon. 700mb WAA will help steepen DGZ depth across western NY
ahead of the cold frontal passage Wednesday evening. Additional
frontal forcing could led to brief periods of moderate snowfall
during the evening festivities. Decided to include Winter
Weather Advisories for areas outside of the Winter Storm
Warnings in western NY starting midday Wednesday with a general
2-4" expected, but locally higher amounts possible near lake
enhancement. As the cold front passes through, temperatures will
drop into the teens with wind chills dropping below zero in
spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Behind a passing cold front and quick clipper system, Thursday will
feature some lingering light snow showers early in the morning
before the snow tapers off from west to east. This will occur as
drier air filters into the region and brief ridging helps to cut
down on the lake response off of both lakes. Areas southeast of Lake
Ontario where the WNW flow over the longer fetch of the lake will
have the greatest potential for lake snow to linger through most of
the day, and as a result a few inches of snow. Otherwise, of the
entire work week, Thursday currently looks like the least snowiest
day of the week.

Starting Thursday night, a few shortwave troughs, along with a
passing weak sfc low will start to increase the potential for snow
showers to develop off of both lakes, as well as another round of
widespread snow. There still remain some uncertainty among guidance
for the timing of the passing troughs, but it looks like starting
overnight Thursday the lake effect snow will start to organize more
than earlier in the day and the wide spread snow will move through
during the morning hours on Friday. By Friday afternoon the
widespread snow showers should move out of the area and the lake
effect snow will become the dominant source of the snow through
Friday night. Lake effect will focus mainly east of both lakes, but
brief oscillations to northeast of both lakes is possible at times.
Snowfall amounts from Thursday night through Friday night will be
greatest east of Lake Ontario where the better lake fetch within the
mostly westerly dominant flow will allow lake effect to become better
organized. 6 to 12 inches is possible, with a narrow area of up to
18 inches possible if the lake bands become more stationary. East of
lake erie, 4 to 7 inches is expected during this time.

Temperatures behind the earlier passing cold front will drop to
teens to near 20 for most areas on Thursday afternoon, and to the
upper teens to mid 20s for most areas on Friday afternoon. Overnight
lows for both Thursday and Friday nights will be in the single
digits to low teens for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Several shortwaves will continue to pivot around a deep longwave
trough across eastern North America during the long term period.
This will effectively keep the broad-scale pattern locked in place
with cold air continuing to pour across the lakes and continued
opportunities for lake effect snow. This said, the track/timing of
these waves and how they will subtly influence the evolution of the
trough remains uncertain, and thus the details regarding lake effect
snow potential quickly become murky. The greatest chances for lake
effect snow looks to be Saturday and Saturday night near the
southern Lake Ontario shoreline. A wave of low pressure will cross
the region on Monday, providing the potential for a round of
widespread snow showers across all of western & north central NY.

Temperatures through at least early next week will remain below
climatological norms for early January. Temperatures will remain in
the teens to 20s for most areas through the weekend for afternoon
highs. There will likely be a small warming trend starting Monday,
though temperatures above freezing will be hard to come by.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered snow showers from lake effect snows continue to result
in periodic MVFR/IFR conditions for area terminals and will
continue through this evening. Focus for lake snows will shift
from southeast of the lakes to east of the lakes tonight into
Wednesday morning before more widespread snowfall spreads over
the area in the afternoon. This will bring widespread reductions
to visibility outside lake enhanced areas with at least MVFR
conditions for most terminals continuing into the evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with snow and localized heavier lake
effect snow and IFR/LIFR possible east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

Thursday...Widespread IFR as a cold front drops across the region
with snow, while also briefly weakening lake effect snowbands.

Friday...Lake effect lingers off of both Lake Erie & Ontario,
resulting in IFR/MVFR flight cats within the lake bands, with MVFR
and possibly VFR outside the lake bands.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly MVFR/VFR with a few lingering snow
showers possible. &&

.MARINE...
The trend continues for winds to gradually lower through Tuesday
afternoon and evening, but expected gales and high end small
craft to continue into early tonight, especially for eastern
Lake Ontario.

Winds will largely remain in a westerly component direction
through the end of the week, with speeds generally 20 to 30
knots maintaining rough conditions on the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ001>003-
     011-021.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for NYZ004-005.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ010-013-014.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ012-019-020-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LOZ043>045-
         063>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Brothers
NEAR TERM...Brothers
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...PP/SW
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...Brothers/TMA