Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

844
FXUS61 KBUF 232250
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
650 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast snow accumulations have increased about an inch across the
higher terrain of Chautauqua and southern Erie counties through this
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow showers across the region through this evening, with
minor accumulating snow across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie.

2) Next round of active weather returns Wednesday night through
Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Light snow showers across the region through this
evening, with minor accumulating snow across the higher terrain east
of Lake Erie.

Cold northwest flow, low level moisture, and ascent from a passing
mid level trough will continue to generate areas of flurries and
light snow showers this evening before tapering off from west to
east late evening through the overnight. Weak lake instability will
allow a few snow showers to linger southeast of Lake Ontario into
the Finger Lakes, but these should also end by daybreak Tuesday as a
dry airmass and lowering inversion heights build into the eastern
Great Lakes.

Accumulations will generally be limited to a spotty coating on the
grass. Higher elevations from the Southern Tier into the Boston
Hills, Wyoming County, and Bristol Hills may see an inch or so of
accumulation. Most the accumulation will be limited to the grass,
but a few slick spots may develop later this evening with pavement
temperatures dropping after sunset.

Strong high pressure will build into the region tonight and snow
showers are expected to end across western NY by midnight. A
northwest flow across Lake Ontario will likely maintain light snow
showers across the Finger Lakes region overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Next round of active weather returns Wednesday night
through Thursday night.

A west-to-east positioned stationary boundary will be draped from
the Ottawa Valley to northern NY Wednesday night. A weak wave
gliding east along this boundary and attendant wing of warm
advection may produce some precipitation, mainly in the form of
light rain showers across the eastern Lake Ontario region, with just
the chance for a few showers across western NY. A few wet snow
flakes may mix in across the Tug Hill/western Dacks, with any light
accumulating wet snows expected to remain to our northeast.

A few showers will remain possible Thursday morning before a more
potent system approaches the area later Thursday. Model trends
continue to show a further northward track of the low as it slides
east along this same stationary boundary, only now positioned a bit
further to the north across southeastern Ontario and far southern
Quebec. This increases confidence in the p-type being mainly, if not
entirely in the liquid form, at least for the bulk of the event. As
the low moves northeast of the area, it will send the boundary
southward through the area as a cold front later Thursday into
Thursday evening. Being solidly in the warm sector will allow PWATs
to rise over to an inch ahead of the boundary. Combined this with
strong forcing owed to a stout LL jet just in advance of the front,
am expecting a fairly heavy, but short-lived slug of rain to push
north to south through the area with the frontal passage...centered
on Thursday evening. Plenty of vertical shear and moisture will be
in place ahead of the front, however the overall stability of the
atmosphere and poor mid level lapse rates are expected to preclude
any severe threat, although a few general thunderstorms will be
possible and may locally enhance rainfall amounts. Precipitation may
end as a some scattered light snow showers as a much colder air mass
pours back in across the region later Thursday night into Friday
morning, however little to no accumulation is expected at this time
as drier air quickly works in. This cold air mass will linger into
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold northwest flow will continue to produce areas of light snow
from lake enhancement and upslope flow this evening as a mid level
trough moves east across the eastern Great Lakes. Most of the snow
showers are very light, with mainly VFR/MVFR VSBY. A few snow
showers across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes will bring local IFR. The snow showers will diminish in
coverage later this evening, with the last of the snow showers
southeast of Lake Ontario into the Finger Lakes dissipating before
daybreak Tuesday. Otherwise, expect a mix of VFR/MVFR CIGS tonight
in remaining stratocumulus, which will scatter out late tonight
through Tuesday morning.

VFR will prevail Tuesday with some increase in mid level clouds
Tuesday night as a mid level trough moves east across Ontario and
Quebec.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR with a few isolated rain showers possible in the
afternoon.

Thursday...VFR deteriorating to IFR late afternoon and evening with
rain developing. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Rain may end as a
brief period of light snow late Thursday night.

Friday...Areas of MVFR CIGS with a chance of scattered light snow
showers in the morning, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate northwesterlies will bring Small Craft Advisory conditions
to the south shore of Lake Ontario through the first half of tonight
before diminishing late.

Winds and waves will drop off late tonight through Tuesday as
high pressure moves across the region. A southwest wind will pick up
on the lakes Tuesday afternoon creating a little chop, but Small
Craft Advisory conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK/JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK