Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

749
FXUS61 KBUF 141059
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
659 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased areal coverage of showers today and tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool weather and periods of showers will continue through tonight.

2) A notable warming trend will start Friday, then gains momentum
over the weekend with summer-like heat by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool weather and periods of showers will continue
through tonight.

A mid level closed low will drift southeast across New York State
today. The associated surface low just north of Lake Ontario this
morning will redevelop as a coastal wave downstream this afternoon.
This will bring the likelihood of showers as moisture pivots into
the region. The greatest coverage of showers will be underneath
the mid level low across western New York with lesser coverage
or even dry weather across the eastern Lake Ontario region as a
dry slot works into that area on the eastern side of the low.

The greater coverage of showers tonight will shift into the eastern
Lake Ontario region as the mid level low drifts to the southeast and
Atlantic moisture pivots westward around the northern periphery of
the low. Additional rainfall amounts will be light. Rain chances
mostly end across western New York as drier high pressure ridges in
from the southwest.

Well below normal temperatures are expected today, with highs only
in the lower to mid 50s for lower elevations and upper 40s for
higher terrain, close to 15 degrees below average.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A notable warming trend will start Friday, then
gains momentum over the weekend with summer-like heat by early next
week.

A notable warming trend will start Friday, but persistent warm
advection will bring an extended period of above average warmth over
the weekend, lasting through at least Tuesday. Highs over the
weekend will be in the 70s, with 80s for Monday and Tuesday away
from lake influences. Some of the normally warmer locations may
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Degraded flight conditions can be expected areawide through much of
the 12Z TAF period as a slow-moving area of low pressure over
southeastern Ontario this morning, trudges SSE through central and
eastern NY, before reaching the Tri-state area by late tonight.

Cool cyclonic flow aloft and saturated low levels will yield further
deterioration of flight conditions from early this morning through
today. This will be especially true from the Genesee Valley/Finger
Lakes region westward where a cool/moist WNW to NW flow crossing the
warmer lake waters will help to generate an expanse of IFR/LIFR CIGS
today. Most of the LIFR will be confined to the higher terrain
(including KJHW) of western NY. Meanwhile, areas east of the low
center across central and northcentral NY will remain under more of
a S to SW flow through this afternoon, which should help keep CIGS
mainly in the MVFR for most of those areas.

Areas of light showers will also be present today, mainly from the
Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region westward, with VSBYs lowering to
MVFR at times as lake surface to 850mb delta t`s of 10-12 deg C
allow for an added boost to an already cool/moist cyclonic flow
pattern aloft in the form of some lake enhancement.

As the low continues to slowly move SE tonight, winds will veer N to
NW across the eastern half of the area as well, bringing IFR/LIFR
conditions to the remainder of the area late today into this
evening. Low pressure will start to slowly exit SE of the area later
tonight, while drier air associated with high pressure will be
building into far western NY, bringing the possibility for improving
flight conditions to the KBUF/KIAG/KJHW sites toward the tail end of
the TAF period. Otherwise, light rain showers will end across
western NY and increase in coverage from the Finger Lakes region to
the North Country.

Outlook...

Friday...A chance of showers, mainly east of Lake Ontario. Areas of
MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A period of elevated southwest winds this morning will bring choppy
conditions to Lake Erie and the western half of Lake Ontario. The
gradient will relaxed by this afternoon as high pressure builds in
with northwest winds lowering to 15 knots or less.

Weak onshore flow develop Friday before winds turn more southerly
over the weekend, although a weak gradient will allow for local
diurnally driven onshore breezes to develop.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...TMA