Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

477
FXUS61 KBUF 302340
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
740 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost Advisory expanded into the Finger Lakes tonight and Friday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of frost tonight into Friday morning.

2) Unsettled weather expected through the start of the weekend.

3) Cool weather will support the potential for additional frost or
freeze headlines each night this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of frost tonight into Friday morning.

A general troughing pattern across the eastern Great Lakes tonight,
will support cold air to advect into western and north central New
York under northwest flow. Temperatures at 850mb will tumble to
around -3C tonight. Additionally, partial clearing tonight, combined
with weakening surface winds will support temperatures to fall into
the 30s, and therefore support frost development in most areas,
especially inland from the lakeshores.

A Frost Advisory is in effect for most of western New York and into
the Finger Lakes, where the growing season begins on May 1.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather expected through the start of the
weekend.

An upper level low will remain parked across southeastern Canada,
will support a general troughing pattern remaining across the Great
Lakes through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend.
With the troughing pattern overhead, a few shortwave troughs will
ripple through, maintaining northwest flow across the region.

A pool of cold air aloft, combined with diurnal heating will support
isolated to scattered showers to persist during the daytime hours on
Friday and Saturday. The best coverage of showers will be Friday
afternoon as a decaying cold front approaches the area. Colder air
in the wake of the front Friday night through Saturday, may support
graupel/snow to mix in with rain showers Saturday afternoon. Any
lingering showers across the higher terrain Saturday night will
briefly change over to snow, though little to no accumulation is
expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cool weather will support the potential for
additional frost or freeze headlines each night this weekend.

Upper level low parked over southeastern Canada, will support a
general troughing pattern across the eastern Great Lakes through the
weekend. Within the troughing pattern, shortwave troughs will ripple
through, supporting colder air to filter in across the region with
each passage.

Temperatures at 850mb will tumble to -5C by Saturday night, which
will support temperatures to average 10-15 degrees below
normal. This being said, low temperatures are expected to fall
well into the 30s and even into the 20s across the higher
terrain Friday night and Saturday night. Additional frost or
freeze headlines will likely be needed across much of western
New York and into the Finger Lakes since the growing season
starts on May 1st.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS, mainly VFR flight conditions are found, with
diurnally driven showers becoming fewer in number. Through the
overnight hours, generally VFR flight conditions are expected.

A shortwave trough rotating through a closed upper level low
will bring back shower chances to the TAF region tomorrow after
sunrise. Primarily the Southern Tier, including KJHW, will have
several clusters of showers passing through, with ceiling
heights lowering to MVFR if not IFR within this activity.

Showers and lower ceiling heights to MVFR will brush by the
northern TAF sites of WNY, including KBUF, KIAG and KROC through
the afternoon hours. East of Lake Ontario, including KART, will
likely remain dry the final 12 hours of this TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Friday evening through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered rain
showers at times. Some wet snowflakes may mix in across the
higher terrain late Friday night/early Saturday.

Monday and Tuesday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
In the wake of surface low pressure moving across Quebec this
afternoon, westerly winds will continue to gradually increase on
Lakes Ontario and Erie, producing choppy conditions on both lakes.
Small Craft Advisory conditions will be met on the eastern half of
Lake Ontario through this evening.

An unseasonably cool airmass and moderate pressure gradient will
remain persistent to support additional periods of small craft
advisory criteria at times on Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ001>006-010>014-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...EAJ