Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

901
FXUS61 KBUF 082356
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
756 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased the probability of showers across western NY Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing heat and humidity this week. Heat indices could
reach the mid 90s by the end of the week.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return mid-
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing heat and humidity this week. Heat
indices could reach the mid 90s by the end of the week.

A ridge axis will move across the forecast area tonight through
Tuesday. Warm air advection will strengthen through the day with mid
to high level clouds spreading across the region. Temperatures will
be well above normal Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s,
potentially hitting the low 90s across the lake plains and valleys
in the Finger Lakes region. Lower temperatures are expected near the
lakeshores.

As the ridge breaks down across the region Wednesday, increasing
clouds and chances for showers and thunderstorms will bring maximum
temperatures slightly down. Another ridge is expected to build into
the region Thursday and temperatures at 850mb will likely climb to
near +17C and the combination of warm and moist conditions may
result in heat index values in the low to mid 90s. Confidence is low
to medium as clouds and precipitation may inhibit the potential.
Heat headlines are possible for some locations across the area late
in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
return mid-week.

A shortwave trough will approach the region with warm, moist air
spreading across the region Tuesday through Wednesday, increasing
the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Initially, widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as
increasing elevated instability moves into western NY Tuesday. Dry
weather will likely continue east of Lake Ontario Tuesday. A surface
trough is expected to move across the region Tuesday night, further
increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. This
activity will likely taper off from west to east across western NY
Wednesday while additional showers develop east of Lake Ontario.

A mid-level ridge within in a warm and moist airmass is expected to
build into the region towards the end of the week. Weak impulses
embedded in the flow around the ridge could support showers and
thunderstorms through Friday. Shear profiles are expected to be weak
through mid-week, with a slight uptick Thursday through Friday. The
primary impact from any showers or thunderstorms will be heavy rain,
as PWAT values are expected to exceed 1.5", which is above the 90th
percentile for this time of year. Drier air is expected to move into
the region for the start of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the 00Z TAF cycle as surface high pressure over
New England settles off the Northeastern coastline. A weakening
shortwave trough will gradually encroach on the Great Lakes region
from the west this evening through Tuesday. Mid/high cloud cover
will increase tonight with a 5-10kt southerly flow, which will
likely preclude fog development.

Mainly dry VFR weather to start the day Tuesday, though the added
moisture and forcing with the approaching trough may cause widely
scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm west of KROC before
18z. Brief MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out in any showers that
manage to develop.

Shower/thunderstorm coverage is then expected to increase and spread
eastward thereafter into Tuesday evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Mainly VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with showers
and a few thunderstorms.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR gradually improving back towards VFR from west
to east. Diminishing chances for showers and thunderstorms across
the western terminals.

Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier
showers or storms.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Dry weather.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure settling off the Northeast coast will maintain winds
10-15kts or less across the lakes through Tuesday. Lake breeze
circulations may lead to onshore flow and a small chop.

A weak passing wave of low pressure will cause winds to increase and
begin shifting southwesterly late Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Winds around 15kts will be possible in this timeframe which will
generate a chop on the waters, though wave heights are not expected
to approach SCA criteria.

Light to modest west to southwesterly flow will then prevail
Wednesday night through this weekend, which may support marginal SCA
conditions at times.

Otherwise, the approach of several low pressure waves may generate a
few thunderstorms over the lakes at times. The most probable
timeframe for thunderstorms will be Tuesday night into early
Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP