Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

381
FXUS61 KBUF 240810
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
410 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet weather returns tonight through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet weather returns tonight through Saturday.

A large sfc low over the southern Canadian Prairies will occlude and
become cut-off from its main cold front over the Central CONUS. This
will occur as a secondary low develops at the systems triple point
over the Upper Midwest this morning. The new sfc low will track
southeast, centering over the western end of Lake Erie tonight. The
sfc low will track along a stationary front placed from the Central
Great Lakes to/across PA. Shower potential will start to increase
this evening as the sfc low tracks southeast to the western end of
Lake Erie and the original occluded front to the north tracks toward
the area at the same time. Showers will continue to increase in
coverage as a shortwave trough tracking across the southern Great
Lakes increases forcing over the region. Both the shortwave trough
and sfc low will continue to track southeast to the Delmarva by late
Saturday night.

The sfc low and shortwave trough will cross just south of the area
at the same time, increasing forcing overall and causing more
organized showers with some embedded thunderstorms through at least
the early evening on Saturday. There still remains some uncertainty
in how quick the system tracks across the region. Showers and
thunderstorms may be heavy at times, with the best potential overall
for more organized rain expected for areas south of Lake Ontario.
Areas east of Lake Ontario may stay rain free as the system tracks
across the western portions of the area and then southeast. Rainfall
amounts for areas of WNY will be around one inch, with amounts
lowering to around a tenth of an inch for areas southeast of Lake
Ontario.

To go along with the rain, winds will increase out of the east as
the sfc low tracks to the south of the area and a tightening
pressure gradient develops with an area of high pressure to the
north. Wind gusts of up to 30 MPH will be possible near the
western Lake Ontario shore, with gusts diminishing farther
inland closer to the passing sfc low.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HRRR/NAM suggest the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms
today along the NW-SE oriented boundary across the region. Have
added PROB30 to TAFS given low confidence in where and when these
storms will impact area terminals.

Tonight...a wave of low pressure is advertised to move along the
stationary boundary draped across the region. With the arrival of
the low, IFR/MVFR will develop within rain showers for terminals
south of Lake Ontario. Elsewhere...it will likely mainly VFR across
the North Country (KART) with just a chance of showers.

Outlook...

Saturday...Restrictions likely with rain and showers.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely with rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain below SCA levels today, but a tightening pressure
gradient over the region will start to increase winds out of the
northeast and then east later today and through Saturday. An area of
low pressure tracking toward and then south of the BUF forecast area
will cause the pressure gradient to increase with high pressure to
the north. This will likely increase winds and waves to SCA levels
along the the central and western portions of the Lake Ontario
shoreline for this evening through the day on Saturday.

Winds will diminish through the night on Saturday night and into the
day Sunday as the pressure gradient weakens with the departing sfc
low.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...SW