Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

331
FXUS61 KBUF 141754
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
154 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes made to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool temperatures with occasional showers and drizzle through
tonight.

2) More unsettled weather this weekend with a few thunderstorms
possible across Western NY later Saturday.

3) A warming trend begins Friday with summer-like heat by early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool weather and periods of showers will continue
through tonight.

GOES imagery indicates a closed mid-level low centered over
central/eastern Lake Ontario early this afternoon. Through tonight
this system will wobble southeastward to the vicinity of Long
Island, with the associated surface low currently near the Finger
Lakes similarly redeveloping off the Northeast coast. The broad
cyclonic flow will continue to support dreary weather through
tonight with well below cool temps, mostly cloudy skies, on and off
light rain showers, and patchy drizzle.

Coverage of precip should taper off across Western NY by late this
evening with the arrival of a dry slot while concurrently expanding
back across the eastern Lake Ontario region. The precip across these
eastern zones will then diminish later tonight into Friday morning,
though stray showers may clip the vicinity of the Western Dacks
through the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather this weekend with a few
thunderstorms possible across Western NY later Saturday.

A broad mid-level wave will gradually take on a sharper, more
negative tilt as it slides across Ontario Province and the upper
Great Lakes Saturday. This will force a broad surface low northeast
across James Bay/southern Hudson Bay and into northern Quebec by
Saturday evening. Weaker convective shortwave energy tracking
further south will lift a warm frontal segment into the eastern
Great Lakes region from the Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon, which
will likely stall out somewhere in the vicinity of WNY. This will
likely bring some measure of shower activity to the region from west
to east into Saturday night. Daytime insulation may allow for enough
instability to support a few thunderstorms, particularly across the
western Southern Tier. Relatively meager wind profiles should limit
the threat for stronger or more organized convection.

The northern low`s cold front will sag southward towards the region
Saturday night, though likely stall out before reaching the southern
reaches of the St. Lawrence Valley. This will leave the forecast
area on the warm side with the other previously stalled out boundary
still lingering in the region. Thus, lower-end chances for showers
remain in the forecast south of Lake Ontario through Sunday until a
much more robust system far to the west lifts both boundaries well
north of the Great Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A notable warming trend will start Friday, then
gains momentum over the weekend with summer-like heat by early next
week.

A strong high pressure ridge building over the western Atlantic will
support persistent warm air advection Friday through much of next
week. Seasonably warm temperatures in the 70s over the weekend will
surge into the 80s across much of the region Monday and Tuesday,
especially in areas further removed from lake influences. A few of
the typical warm spots (Genesee Valley, Finger Lakes) may approach
the 90F mark on Tuesday though the NBM appears several degrees too
warm compared to the MaxT spread from the ENS/GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Flight reductions will continue through the afternoon and into the
evening tonight. The lowest flight categories will be found south of
Lake Ontario where a cool moist west to northwest cyclonic flow will
continue. Cool temperatures aloft, helping to initiate weak lake
enhancement and upsloping are also helping to increase the potential
for mist/drizzle/showers. For these areas a mixture of low end MVFR
to IFR CIGs will persist, with some lowering to LIFR at times,
especially over the higher terrain. Reductions in VSBYs to IFR at
times is possible as mist/drizzle/showers move across the area.
Farther east, conditions will remain MVFR into the early evening
with more of a southerly flow over these areas that will remain east
of the mid and upper level low dropping southeast across the area. A
few scattered showers will be possible for these areas into the
early evening.

Tonight, drizzle/mist/showers will continue across the terminals
south of Lake Ontario, and expand in coverage for terminals east of
Lake Ontario. As the mid/upper level lows track southeast, wrap
around synoptic moisture within the cool cyclonic flow will cause
showers to expand east. Flight categories will lower through the
evening and into the overnight across the entire area, with the most
notable changes to reductions for eastern terminals. Widespread IFR
CIGs are expected by late evening, with LIFR CIGs expected over the
higher terrain. Reductions in VSBYs will develop over the eastern
zones during the evening hours tonight while reductions in the
western zones linger, VSBY reductions in the MVFR to IFR range will
be possible. Conditions (both VSBYs & CIGs) over the western
terminals will start to slowly improve after Midnight as
mist/drizzle/showers start to shift east, tapering off through the
second half of the night and through daybreak on Friday. This will
occur as ridging builds into the region and associated drier air
erodes at the low level moisture.

Friday, MVFR/IFR CIGs early will improve from west to east through
the day, with the lowest CIGs expected for areas across the higher
terrain and east of Lake Ontario. Lingering showers/mist/drizzle
will continue for areas east of Lake Ontario through most of the
morning, continuing the potential for some reductions to VSBYs at
times as well. VFR flight conditions are expected by mid morning for
the western terminals and by the mid to late afternoon for eastern
terminals.

Outlook...

Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Potential for showers will increase later in
the day, with minimal reductions expected at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to weaken across the area today as an area of
low pressure weakens and shifts east. Winds will remain out of the
west/northwest for the western marine zones and veer to the
west/northwest for eastern zones as the sfc low shifts east and as a
sfc high builds south of the area.

High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley to the southeast
coast from this evening through Friday night. This will result in
winds below Small Craft Advisory levels through the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PP
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW