Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KBUF 230706
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
206 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued along the south shore of
Lake Ontario for lake effect snow late today through Saturday
morning.

The start time of the cold weather advisory has been moved earlier
by a few hours for western NY and the Finger Lakes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Locally heavy lake effect snow will continue today east of Lake
Ontario with more limited snow east of Lake Erie, before moving
south and weakening tonight.

2) Dangerously cold airmass will arrive today and last into Sunday
morning.

3) Confidence continues to increase for a period of widespread
and potentially heavy snow late Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Locally heavy lake effect snow will continue today
east of Lake Ontario with more limited snow east of Lake Erie,
before moving south and weakening tonight.

Lake induced equilibrium levels will continue to run near 10K feet
today through this evening before dropping tonight as the very cold
airmass becomes more shallow. This will continue to support heavy
lake effect snow off Lake Ontario through this evening, with the
Lake Erie snow weakening this morning.

Off Lake Erie...

A band of heavy lake effect snow stretching from the Chautauqua
County shoreline to the Buffalo Southtowns and Batavia will tend to
move inland and weaken through the pre-dawn hours. The dendritic
growth zone will become very shallow and low by midday as an
extremely cold airmass moves over the lake. This, combined with
diminishing moisture and loss of upstream connections will bring a
quick weakening to lake effect snow this morning. Additional
accumulations after 6 AM will be limited to 1-2" across the higher
terrain south of Buffalo, with the lake effect snow diminishing to
scattered light snow showers by this afternoon.

Off Lake Ontario...

The more favorable environment lasts longer today, with deeper
synoptic scale moisture and more favorable cloud microphysics
lasting into late afternoon or early evening. This will continue to
support 2-3" per hour snowfall rates in the strongest band today.

The band has taken a jog northward into central Jefferson County
early this morning with a subtle wind shift ahead of the approaching
arctic front. Boundary layer flow will veer more westerly through
the morning hours, moving the band of snow back southward to the Tug
Hill Plateau from late morning through early afternoon. Later this
afternoon, a more substantial wind shift to the northwest will
likely capture the east-west oriented band and shove it onshore
along much of the south shore of the lake, producing a quick burst
of heavy snow from mid to late afternoon into the evening.

Following this initial southward movement, the single band will
break up and weaken into a multiple band structure southeast of the
lake and persist overnight. The extremely cold airmass will mostly
remove the dendritic growth zone from the cloud bearing layer,
resulting in small snowflakes and less efficient accumulation
overnight. A few light snow showers may linger into Saturday morning
before lowering inversion heights and dry air mostly end the lake
effect.

Expect additional accumulations after 6 AM of 8-12" in the most
persistent bands east of the lake, with the greatest accumulations
focused across the Tug Hill Plateau. 3-5" is possible in the most
persistent bands late today through Saturday morning along the south
shore of the lake from Orleans County to northern Cayuga County,
including the Rochester area.

In addition to the ongoing lake effect snow, it will be another
windy day today with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. This will
continue to support blowing and drifting snow in open areas that
have fresh snow on the ground. The wind will finally diminish this
evening and especially overnight as high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold airmass will arrive today and last
into Sunday morning.

Temperatures are still in the teens early this morning, but strong
cold advection will force temperatures to drop into the single
digits from west to east today. Lows tonight will bottom out in the
single digits above and below zero in most areas, and teens below
zero for the North Country that will miss the benefit of the warming
influence of the lakes. Highs will eventually recover to the single
digits and lower teens by late Saturday afternoon.

Wind chills will bottom out in the 15 to 20 below zero range on the
lake plains, and 20 to 25 below across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. The North Country will be coldest,
with wind chills dropping to near 30 below at times. The worst wind
chills will be later today through tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Confidence continues to increase for a period
of widespread and potentially heavy snow late Saturday night
through Monday.

Model consensus continues to be well aligned on the track and timing
of the large area of low pressure set to potentially bring
widespread heavy snow to all of our area late Saturday night
through Monday, even the timing of the parent low riding northeast
along the spine of the Appalachians giving way to a coastal low.
Only minor differences amongst guidance exist with the actual
strength of the parent and surface lows.

Some warmer air being drawn northward on the southern and eastern
flank of the system will try to introduce some mixed precip across
areas well to our southeast, however the vertical column further
north and northwest will remain plenty cold, thus confidence remains
high for an all snow event across all of western and northcentral
NY. Some uncertainty persists with regard to total snowfall amounts
and where the greatest amounts will fall. Lake enhanced and upslope
areas will stand the best chance of seeing the higher end amounts.
One signal that points to higher snow totals is that the bulk of the
low and mid level moisture looks to reside in the DGZ, which would
help boost snowfall amounts. In collaboration with surrounding
offices to our south and east, will hold with the current Winter
Storm Watch at this time. We will soon be in the window where we can
view the full envelope of higher resolution data, and thus
resolve some of the finer details through the end of the event.

A very cold airmass will remain in place in the wake of the system,
thus additional lake snows are expected to last through much of next
week. That said, with the very cold temps that will be experienced
late this week through this weekend combined with decreasing winds,
it is expected that Lake Erie will become 100% frozen over...which
will significantly limit future lake effect potential.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue early this morning east of Lake Erie
with local LIFR conditions mainly south of KBUF and north of KJHW
extending inland across the higher terrain east of the lake. The
Lake Erie snow will rapidly weaken today as the environment becomes
less favorable over the lake, with conditions improving to just
leftover light snow showers and MVFR CIGS across the higher terrain
east of the lake by this afternoon.

Locally heavy lake effect snow will continue all day east of Lake
Ontario. A band near KART early this morning will move south to the
Tug Hill Plateau later this morning through early afternoon. Later
this afternoon and evening, the east-west oriented band will be
shoved south and onshore along much of the south shore as a more
substantial wind shift to the northwest crosses the lake. This will
bring a quick burst of heavy snow along the south shore, with weaker
multiple bands of lake effect snow showers then developing southeast
of the lake overnight into Saturday morning with periods of IFR VSBY
and MVFR CIGS.

It will remain quite windy today with gusts in the 25 to 35 knot
range areawide. This will continue to produce blowing and drifting
snow on airfields with fresh snow. Winds will finally diminish
tonight as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Saturday...Local IFR in lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake
Ontario in the morning, mainly VFR in the afternoon.

Sunday...VFR deteriorating to widespread LIFR from south to north
with heavy snow developing.

Monday...LIFR in widespread moderate to heavy snow, diminishing
later in the day.

Tuesday...Localized lake effect snow and IFR southeast of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW gales will continue on Lake Ontario today, with high end Small
Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie. High pressure will build
into the eastern Great Lakes tonight through Saturday, allowing for
the wind to finally diminish.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Buffalo
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 23                         -11 (1976)                         5(1976)
January 24                         -11 (1976)                         1(1963)
January 25                         -14 (1884)                         5(1884)

Rochester
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 23                         -14 (1976)                         5(1976)
January 24                         -10 (1963)                         2(1963)
January 25                         -6  (1945)                         7(1884)

Watertown
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 23                         -31 (1976)                        -1(1976)
January 24                         -30 (2014)                         0(2004)
January 25                         -18 (2007)                         3(1992)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     evening for NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ002>005.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ003>006-013-014.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ006>008.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ010-011-019-020.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ012-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
CLIMATE...HSK