Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

160
FXUS61 KBUF 151051
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
651 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe thunderstorm threat has slightly increased across the
Southern Tier this afternoon.

Severe thunderstorms risk has also increased Thursday from the
Finger Lakes to the southern Tug Hill region, with a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) now in place. A Marginal Risk remains for the rest of
the forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the
week.

2) Severe thunderstorms remain possible through Thursday, with
locally heavy rainfall also possible through tonight.

3) The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much
colder air arrives by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the work week.

An unsettled and active pattern will continue through the end of the
workweek with a WSW-ENE oriented frontal zone draped across the
Great Lakes and Northeast. Numerous convectively augmented
shortwaves will move through the zonal flow pattern aloft along the
frontal zone and support numerous waves of showers and thunderstorms.

A weakening MCS will reach Western NY before daybreak today, then
move rapidly east across the rest of the area this morning and
continue to weaken with time and eastern extent as it races out
ahead of the reservoir of stronger instability over the upper Ohio
Valley. Expect a period of mainly dry weather for a few hours in the
wake of the departing MCS. Another round of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and
evening with diurnal instability and the arrival of another
convectively augmented shortwave. The best coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will likely be late this afternoon through this
evening south of the NYS Thruway where greater instability will
develop, and forcing is forecast to maximize ahead of the next
shortwave.

Convection will diminish in coverage overnight as the shortwave
moves east and the boundary layer stabilizes. There will still
likely be a few scattered showers lingering with deep moisture still
in place and the frontal zone lingering nearby. Late tonight through
Thursday expect a rinse and repeat pattern, with another potential
decaying area of convection arriving early in the morning, followed
by additional rounds of showers and a few scattered thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening.

Friday, a stronger mid level shortwave will cross the eastern Great
Lakes in the morning, with a somewhat cooler airmass moving into the
region. The cooler air will reduce the chances of thunder. Showers
will continue through the first half of the day before tapering off
from west to east in the afternoon and evening as a skinny ridge of
high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe thunderstorms remain possible in some areas
through Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall also possible through
tonight.

Active weather will persist through much of the week as described in
key message (1). The eastern Great Lakes will remain in a "ridge
roller" type pattern with multiple convectively enhanced shortwaves
spilling across a quasi-stationary E-W oriented thermal boundary
over the Great Lakes today through Thursday. This setup will be
supportive for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, though the
main threat area will differ each period through Thursday. The
boundary will finally get shunted more firmly southeast of the
region as a cold front Thursday night.

The decaying MCS currently moving through WNY early this morning
continues to weaken as expected, posing minimal severe weather
threat as it races eastward. Behind this round of showers and
storms, there should be a break in the activity until the next
convective shortwave arrives later this afternoon. The environment
south of the stalled overhead boundary will recover to allow MLCAPE
values to increase to around 1000-2000J/kg across the Southern Tier
in particular. Wind profiles aloft will also strengthen through
overall shear magnitudes will remain similar to those this morning.
Severe risk will likely be mostly contingent on the exact track of
this next shortwave. Latest hi-res guidance indicates a fairly well-
defined QLCS moving into northern Pennsylvania which may partially
clip over the NY/PA border, though there are subtle differences in
this northern extent. Should this system develop as advertised and
take a more northern track, could see a swath of strong wind gusts,
marginally severe hail and/or even an isolated tornado in the
Southern Tier later this afternoon and early evening.

For Thursday, the severe threat will likely be driven by a much
broader upstream shortwave that will briefly drive a strong 45kt
southwesterly LLJ into the forecast area from the Ohio Valley. The
arrival of this jet will likely coincide with peak diurnal heating
hours in the afternoon. Instability will likely be greatest (nearing
1000J/kg) in our area across the Finger Lakes and towards the Tug
Hill region, which is where the higher risk of severe weather may
become focused Thursday. Shear profiles suggest strong multicellular
convection growing into line segments may be possible with damaging
winds being the primary hazard.

In addition to the severe weather threat, given the moist
antecendant conditions and PWAT values between 1.25-1.5" through
Thursday, there is a low-end threat for excessive rainfall. This
would mainly be a concern if the same spatial areas see repeated
rounds of convection in quick succession, especially those with
complex terrain such as the Southern Tier. Given the relatively
quick storm motions expected and fairly large breaks between most
rounds of convection, this is not the primary concern but one worth
monitoring over the next couple of days.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The very warm pattern continues through Saturday
before much colder air arrives by early next week.

A thermal ridge will build into the eastern Great Lakes and
Northeast Saturday just ahead of a deepening trough over the upper
Midwest. Temperatures will soar into at least the mid to upper 70s,
with 80s a possibility if clouds and showers hold off until late in
the day. A strong cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes
Saturday night, with another round of showers and scattered
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. There may be some severe
potential if convection arrives by late afternoon and evening
Saturday when stronger diurnal instability is still available.

Strong cold advection will develop behind the cold front by Saturday
morning. A deep trough will become established across the eastern
Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday night through Monday, delivering an
unseasonably cold airmass. 850MB temps will bottom out in the -10C
to -14C range, more than cold enough to support lake effect and
upslope snow showers in a northwest flow regime Sunday night through
Monday morning. Moisture appears limited and the favorable synoptic
scale setup is brief, so any accumulations will be minor. Highs
Monday will only be in the lower 40s at best, and may stay in the
30s if clouds persist most of the day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Variable flight conditions expected for the 12z TAF cycle as a
couple of convective shortwaves and a stalled frontal boundary over
the region cause periods of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions
are expected to prevail in VFR/MVFR range in most areas through 00z
this evening, with IFR cigs at times in the North Country.

As of 10z, the first round of convection is ongoing across Western
NY in the form of a broken line of showers and thunderstorms racing
eastward. Brief IFR vsbys and localized wind gusts 30-40kts were
previously observed within this complex, though the weakening trend
is expected to continue with IFR and gusty winds decreasingly likely
as it moves east of KROC.

Following a break in the precipitation, the bulk of the morning
hours will be dry until additional convection moves in from the west
this afternoon. Thunderstorms are likely in the Southern Tier from
KJHW to KELZ between 19z and 02z, with decreasing chances north of
KBUF/KROC. Storms in the Southern Tier corridor could produce strong
wind gusts. Showers and storms will likely remain in the vicinity of
the Southern Tier tonight, though cigs are expected to deteriorate
areawide to mainly IFR.

Otherwise, between rounds of showers and storms, a continuous flow of
warm, moist air across the cold lakes may result in a localized
marine layer northeast of the lakes with MVFR/IFR or lower cigs and
occasionally vsbys in patchy fog. Confidence remains low in this
potential with abundant cirrus obscuring lower-level cloud
features and hi-res guidance poorly handling the phenomena.

Outlook...

Thursday and Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at times.
Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible.

Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers later in the
afternoon.

Sunday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with rain showers mixing with and
changing to snow through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to cross
the lakes through Thursday, a few of which may produce strong
surface wind gusts and locally higher waves. Otherwise, with the
warmer airmass in place and relatively cold lake temperatures,
limited mixing of synoptic winds should preclude any prolonged SCA-
conditions across the waters.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/PP
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP