Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

278
FXUS61 KBUF 261855
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
155 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold Weather Advisory was expanded to include the Niagara Frontier
tonight through Tuesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snow showers will become locally heavy at times east and south of
the Lakes tonight through Tuesday.

2) Reinforcing shot of Arctic air will bring dangerously cold wind
chills tonight through early Tuesday afternoon.

3) Locally heavy lake effect snow to continue east of Lake Ontario
through Thursday, with lighter lake effect snow east of Lake Erie.

4) Prolonged period of cold through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Snow showers will become locally heavy at times east
and south of the Lakes tonight through Tuesday.

Wrap-around moisture continues to pull away as the major winter
storm exits off the east coast. Low-level ridging across the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes has resulted in a westerly flow across the
region. Widespread snow showers extend across the Eastern Lake
Ontario region, while lake effect snow showers have developed along
the southern shore of Lake Ontario and east of Lake Erie this
afternoon. Additional snow accumulations of 1-3" along the southern
shore of Lake Ontario, with 4-6" from Wayne to northern Cayuga
counites this afternoon. Less than 2" in the most peristent bands is
expected east of Lake Erie, however most of the area will see less
than an inch.

A sharp mid-level trough axis will move across the eastern Great
Lakes region through the evening hours. This will support snow
showers briefly intensifying across the North Country this evening.
As low-level ridging builds into western NY tonight, lake effect
snow showers will move northward. Due to the ice cover on Lake Erie,
lake effect snow has been muted and any snow that moves northward
will bring little to no accumulation through the evening. A few
inches of snow is expected as the lake band off Lake Ontario moves
northward across Oswego and Jefferson counties tonight.

A southwest flow will develop across the region late tonight as the
next cold front and clipper approaches the region. Wind gusts of 25
to 35 mph are expected late tonight through Tuesday morning, with
the highest gusts northeast of Lake Erie. Increasing moisture and
forcing will bring another round of snow showers across the region,
with minor lake enhancement east of Lake Erie. Gusty winds and a
fresh snowpack will lead to periods of blowing snow through Tuesday
afternoon. The lake band off Lake Ontario will become disorganized
as shear increases Tuesday morning, then lake effect will become
better organized with uniform westerly flow by Tuesday
afternoon. Snow will be focused from the lakeshore to the Tug
Hill.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Reinforcing shot of Arctic air will bring
dangerously cold wind chills tonight through early Tuesday afternoon.

Arctic air has moved back into the eastern Great Lakes region and
cold weather will continue through Tuesday. Low temperatures will
reach the single digits below zero to the single digits tonight.
Increasing winds especially west of the Genesee Valley will produce
wind chill values as low as 20 below zero including the Cities of
Buffalo and Niagara Falls.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Locally heavy lake effect snow to continue east of
Lake Ontario through Thursday, with lighter lake effect snow east of
Lake Erie.

Ongoing lake effect snow Tuesday night, especially off of Lake
Ontario will persist through Thursday, as a pair of clipper
shortwave troughs ripple through the longwave trough. With each
clipper`s passage, an area of deeper moisture and synoptic ascent
will help lake equilibrium levels to rise to 12K-14K feet Tuesday
night, before settling to around 10K feet by Thursday. Additionally,
with each passage, expect shifts in wind direction, helping to move
lake effect snowbands.

Diving into the details, with the exit of the first clipper`s
passage Tuesday night, enhancing low level convergence over the
lake, supporting the lake band on Lake Ontario to rapidly
strengthen. As a result, snowfall rates may climb up towards 2-3
inches per hour. As winds veer to the WNW, the lake band will
gradually shift south across the Tug Hill into western Oswego and
northern Wayne counties through Wednesday morning. The next clipper
will approach Wednesday afternoon, supporting low level winds to
back to the west/west-southwest and result in the snow band to lift
north towards the Tug Hill and into southern Jefferson county
Wednesday night, though during this northward travel, some boundary
layer shear may force the band to weaken some. In the wake of the
shortwave trough`s passage Wednesday night, winds will again veer to
the west/northwest supporting the band to not only settle south into
Oswego county, but also increase in intensity with 2-3 inch per hour
snowfall rates possible. Winds will continue to veer to the
northwest Thursday through Friday, causing the one single band to
break up into a spray of lighter snow bands south/southeast of Lake
Ontario.

Meanwhile, while there is extensive ice cover across Lake Erie which
will help diminish the lake effect response, there is likely enough
thin/slush ice over the deeper waters in the eastern basin to
support a limited lake response off of the lake. This being said,
with the passing clipper systems outlined previously will generate a
few light snow showers across WNY Tuesday night and again on
Wednesday night through Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Prolonged period of cold through the weekend.

Well below normal temperatures will continue through the end of the
week as an anomalously low (below 2 SD) 500mb trough passes across
the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic region. Little to no
difference in high temperatures through the middle portion of the
week, supporting low to mid teens. Putting this into context, the
last time the region has seen these temperatures for a prolonged
stretch of time, was the winter of 2017 to 2018 from late December
into early January.

This being said, expect single to below zero low temperatures this
week. These temperatures combined with a light wind may produce a
night or two with colder weather advisory conditions met, notably
Thursday night into Friday morning.

Some modest relief will spread into the region for the start of the
weekend, as the core of the coldest air will slide south, with a
cold, but not as frigid airmass of -10C to spread across the region
in its place, supporting temperatures to begin to rebound into the
20s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Snow showers will become more localized across western and north
central NY through Tuesday morning. Intermittent periods of IFR or
below are expected in snow at the terminals.

An area of widespread snow has largely moved east of the region.
Wrap around moisture will still maintain the chance for snow showers
across the North Country through this evening, with periods of IFR
or below at KART. Multiple narrow bands of lake effect snow will
continue along the southern shore of Lake Ontario and east of Lake
Erie this afternoon. Snow showers will become organized southeast of
Lake Ontario into this evening, then move northward tonight into
Tuesday morning. The band should be north of KROC by late this
evening, reaching KART overnight.

Lake effect snow is muted east of Lake Erie. A brief lull in shower
activity is expected tonight, before a more widespread snow moves
into the western terminals late tonight through Tuesday morning.
There may be lake enhancement in vicinity of KBUF and KROC. IFR or
below is likely in any snow showers.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...Localized lake effect snow and IFR southeast
of Lake Ontario.

Thursday through Saturday...Chance of snow, locally heavier near the
Lakes. IFR or below is possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will freshen on both lakes this afternoon and remain elevated
with long-duration small craft conditions on both lakes through mid
week, persisting over the southcentral and southeastern Lake Ontario
nearshore waters all the way through the end of the work week. See
Small Craft Advisories as outlined below.

Of note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are now
ice covered.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-
     002.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ003>008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ005>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday
         for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LOZ043-
         044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ/HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JM