Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

024
FXUS61 KBUF 182359
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
659 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will pass across Ohio and Pennsylvania tonight, with
perhaps a light rain or snow shower making it across the border into
the Southern Tier. Otherwise dry conditions will prevail through
Thursday, with temperatures moderating to near normal by Thursday.
The next storm system will bring mainly plain rain Thursday night
through Friday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WV satellite imagery this evening depicts a shortwave trough moving
east across the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, regional radar and sfc obs
indicates an area of mixed rain/snow showers between central MI and
central Lake Erie on the northern periphery of the system`s sfc low.
An elongated surface high over the Central and Eastern Great Lakes
will limit the northern extent of this moisture and precip through
tonight, with the upstream shortwave tracking east-southeastward.
Precipitation chances remain low for our CWA with just a chance
PoP overnight for rain or snow near the state line of the
Southern Tier.

Northerly flow ahead of this surface high along with cold air
advection will bring lake effect clouds to the southern shoreline of
Lake Ontario tomorrow before a wealth of dry air associated with the
surface high brings mostly sunny skies to our region.

While tomorrow evening will likely start with clear skies, mid and
high level clouds will increase through the night with a subtle
shortwave rippling along a now zonal flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure exits off to our east Thursday and then out to sea
Thursday night. Overall...dry weather will continue one more day
(Thursday) and then the front nearing the Lower Lakes will bring
increasing chances for showers Late Thursday night and Friday.
Mild airmass streaming into the region will support precipitation to
fall in the liquid form ahead of the cold front. The cold front
sweeps through the area Friday afternoon ushering in a colder (850
T`s of -3C to -6C) but fairly dry airmass. Given that...the
lack of moisture in the wake of the cold front will limit lake
effect showers E-ESE of the lakes Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Subsidence and drier air associated with the sfc high building in
from the west is expected to provide largely dry weather for the
weekend. Low pressure moving east along the U.S./Canadian
border may bring the next better chance of showers by Monday,
dependent on track and timing. After that, it looks like high
pressure may bring a return to dry weather to wrap up this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday the region will remain sandwiched between a
low pressure system moving east across the Ohio Valley towards the
Mid Atlantic states, and a thin wedge of high pressure extending
down from the Upper Great Lakes. The high will then build further
southeast into lower Great Lakes behind the system and through the
day Wednesday. This will allow for mainly VFR weather to prevail
with two potential exceptions:

The first will be from the system itself which may bring MVFR/IFR
cigs and light scattered mixed rain/snow showers northward into the
Southern Tier. The potential for this should be maximized from KJHW
to KELZ between 02z and 09.

The second will come as a cold but light and dry northerly flow
develops as the system passes by. This is expected to cause MVFR
lake clouds to develop south of the lakes through Wednesday morning.
Confidence is highest in impacts to cigs at KIAG and KROC, and
comparatively lower at KBUF and KJHW.

Widespread VFR is expected to return by Wednesday afternoon as drier
air advects in from the north, eroding the deck of lower lake clouds.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with rain showers likely.

Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR CIGS with a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.MARINE...
Exiting deep low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes, along with
the approach of an elongated area of surface high pressure will
bring a period of light northerly winds tonight through Wednesday
night.

The next chance for small craft conditions will be Friday and into
Friday night in conjunction with a cold front passage. Highest waves
will be found in central and eastern waters of Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...PP/Thomas
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP/Thomas