Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

334
FXUS61 KBUF 060630
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
230 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms today with localized heavy downpours
and an isolated severe weather risk.

2) Mainly dry weather returns Sunday through early next week with
warm temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms today with localized heavy
downpours and an isolated severe weather risk.

A mid level trough will move eastward into the lower Great Lakes
today. A weak cold front will advance southeastward into the region,
late this afternoon and this evening, although most of the showers
and thunderstorms will focus on a pre-frontal trough and lake
breeze boundaries rather than the cold front itself.

An initial round of showers will cross the area this morning as a
weak shortwave crosses the eastern Great Lakes. The more organized
area of rain with this feature will cross far northern portions of
the area into southern Ontario.

Most areas will see a return to dry weather following this early
activity. Additional showers and thunderstorms will then develop as
the mid level trough and cold front encounter increasing diurnal
instability. A moderate southwest flow regime will be in place,
supporting stable lake shadows over and northeast of Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario. This will limit convective potential in these areas,
with the better coverage of thunderstorms inland from the lake
shadows from the Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and southern
Tug Hill region. Coverage of rain will be very uneven, with
plenty of dry time through the day.

RAP forecast soundings later this afternoon showing favorable shear
profiles for organized convection, with near 40 knots of deep layer
shear and even some favorable hodograph curvature across the
Southern Tier, which could support supercell development. The
degree of instability is more uncertain, with morning clouds and
showers possibly holding down surface temperatures in some areas.
The greater severe weather risk will likely be across the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes where greater instability is expected away
from the stable lake shadows. The main risk will be localized
damaging wind gusts, with a lower but non-zero risk of large hail
and an isolated tornado. The main severe weather risk will be
roughly 2PM to 7PM when instability and forcing maximize.
Thunderstorms will also produce brief heavy downpours, but fast
storm motion and much drier antecedent conditions compared to a few
weeks ago should keep the flooding risk very low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry weather returns Sunday through early next
week with warm temperatures.

The mid level trough will move east across New England Sunday,
taking the majority of the showers with it. A few showers may linger
east of Lake Ontario in moist, cyclonic northerly flow behind the
departing trough, with dry weather prevailing farther west. Morning
clouds in northerly upslope flow will give way to some clearing in
the afternoon across Western NY.

An Omega Block will develop by Sunday night over the Great Lakes,
then drift slowly east to the east coast and flatten with time
through the middle of next week. This will support dry weather and
above average temperatures Sunday night through at least Tuesday. A
mid level trough and plume of deeper moisture over the Ohio Valley
may move far enough east to bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms again by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Initial shortwave trough riding northeast along the back side of a
departing ridge bringing a round of showers and an isolated
thunderstorm this morning. CIGS through 12z will gradually lower but
should remain VFR. Any VSBY restrictions will be limited to
localized heavier showers/isolated storms.

Flight conditions will deteriorate ahead of an approaching cold
front with widespread MVFR CIGS developing through today, with some
IFR CIGS possible across the western Southern Tier and North
Country. An additional round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Some storms may
produce strong gusty winds. However, a stout lake breeze will
develop northeast of the lakes with a lake shadow setting up from
midday on. This will limit convection for our KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART
sites through much of afternoon, however there is the chance for a
secondary line of showers and storms to cross the area late in the
day. If the lake shadow weakens enough, a few of these may be able
to make it into these aforementioned terminals. Expect localized IFR
conditons within any heavier showers and thunderstorms.

It will be breezy today with widespread SW to WSW winds gusting 20-
25 knots, with 30-35 knots possible northeast of Lake Erie from
midday on.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly MVFR/VFR. Localized IFR in any showers and
thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier showers or storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase today ahead of an approaching cold
front. Winds will initially be strongest on Lake Erie, where Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected. Winds will increase on Lake
Ontario from west to east through the day today, with low end Small
Craft Advisory conditions possible.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early
evening, with a few storms producing locally stronger winds and
higher waves. The cold front will move south across the lower Great
Lakes tonight, with post-frontal northwest winds still producing
choppy conditions on Lake Ontario Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
         evening for LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA