Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

615
FXUS61 KBUF 271835
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
235 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased probability of showers and thunderstorms across western
NY this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight through Wednesday, with heavy downpours and localized
gusty winds.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms linger into Thursday, with
drier conditions for the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are expected tonight through Wednesday, with heavy downpours and
localized gusty winds.

Surface analysis shows low pressure over northern Wisconsin with a
warm front extending south into the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Deep
convection exists near Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. Closer to home,
ridging remains across the Northeast with light winds aloft. Daytime
heating and dewpoints in the mid 60s will support diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms across the terrain and inland from the
lakes this afternoon.

The surface low is expected to move across the central Great Lakes
tonight. A corridor of increasing mid-level winds, steepening mid-
level lapse rates, and high PWATS will move into the Ohio Valley and
parts of western NY late tonight. Mean 0-6km wind shear will
increase to 20-30 knots across far western NY, remaining less than
20 knots east of the Genesee Valley. The storm motion of the ongoing
organized convection across the Central Great Lakes is expected to
move south, and stay west of the forecast area, however additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the surface low
approaches the region tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move across western NY through Tuesday morning.
Conditions are marginally favorable for an isolated severe
thunderstorm across far western NY tonight, with gusty winds and
heavy rain as the main hazards.

The surface low is expected to track across western NY Tuesday, then
become nearly stationary across north-central NY Tuesday night
through Wednesday. Showers will taper off across far western NY
Tuesday morning. Diurnal heating within a very moist environment
will support additional showers and thunderstorms during peak
heating. A low level jet will wrap around the low and a few strong
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding
across parts of the Finger Lakes region and north-central NY Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday night. As the low spins across northern
New York Tuesday night, wrap around moisture will support chances
for showers across western NY overnight. There is a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for portions of western and north-central
NY through Wednesday.

Expect a cool Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 70s, 60s
across the higher terrain.

Key Message 2...Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
to linger into Thursday, with drier conditions for the end of the
work week.

The anomalously strong low will move off the southern New England
coast Thursday. While moisture is expected to pull away from the
forecast area, diurnally driven convection remains possible,
especially across interior locations. Expect another cool day with
highs in the 70s.

High pressure will move into the eastern Great Lakes region for the
end of the week bringing dry and seasonal weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aside from some very widely scattered showers and storms that
develop inland from the lakes with diurnal destabilization...expect
VFR conditions to largely prevail into early this evening.

Tonight and Tuesday a broad area of low pressure will slowly drift
from the Upper Great Lakes to central/eastern New York State.
Increasing moisture and large-scale forcing attendant to the low
will spread a swath of showers and scattered thunderstorms across
far WNY from from west to east between the mid-late evening and
overnight hours tonight...then further east across the Finger Lakes
and North Country Tuesday morning. As this occurs...flight
conditions will lower from VFR to MVFR/IFR...with locally heavy
rainfall possible within any stringer convective cores. Behind the
low and main swath of convection...a developing northerly upslope
flow will then maintain general MVFR/IFR ceilings and additional
scattered to numerous showers through the balance of Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with occasional showers and
possibly a few leftover thunderstorms.

Thursday...Improvement to VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms inland from the lakes.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak surface-based ridging will linger across our region today, with
a corresponding weak pressure gradient resulting in light to modest
winds and minimal wave action. Additionally...localized lake breezes
will develop near the lakeshores this afternoon.

Tonight and Tuesday a broad wave of low pressure will settle
southeastward from the Upper Great Lakes into central/eastern New
York...with the low then slowly drifting to the mid-Atlantic
coastline Tuesday night and Wednesday. As this occurs a light to
modest southerly flow out ahead of the low tonight will transition
to an increasingly brisk northerly to northeasterly flow Tuesday and
Tuesday night following the passage of the low. While the finer
details of this transition have yet to be ironed out...this will
likely eventually lead to a period of SCA-worthy conditions along
the southern shores of both lakes from sometime late Tuesday/Tuesday
evening through Wednesday...before winds lighten and turn more
westerly Thursday/Friday and allow for a commensurate decrease in
wave action.

Out ahead of the approaching low...scattered showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible across eastern Lake Erie and
western Lake Ontario into this evening...with more widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms then expected later tonight and
Tuesday as the low crosses our region. Any storms could produce
locally higher winds and waves, with this potential greatest across
Lake Erie tonight.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR