Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

218
FXUS61 KBUF 220017
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
817 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and a few thunderstorms possible this afternoon and
evening, especially east of Lake Ontario.

2) Rain moves into the area late tonight through Monday, dry weather
returns for Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and a few thunderstorms possible today,
especially east of Lake Ontario.

An area of channeled vorticity moving through the North Country and
daytime heating will support some measure of showers and a few
rumbles of thunder this afternoon. Elsewhere...expect mainly dry
weather especially near the stabilizing influence of the lakes.

Highs temps today will be in the upper 60s to low-mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain moves into the area late tonight and continues
through Monday, dry weather returns for Tuesday.

A vigourous shortwave trough and low (remnant MCS) track east tonight
within the broad cyclonic flow. Deep moisture streaming northward
(PW 1.4-1.5") and lift on the lead edge of the LLJ will support
increasing chances for rain as we head into Monday. The precip
shield on the northern flank of the aforementioned low is advertised
to arrive across WNY between 09z-12z Monday and then work E-ENE
across the region. While there still remains some timing and track
issues...Monday overall looks wet for much of the area. Latest
ensemble probability of 24-hr precipitation > 0.50" and > 0.75"
hover in the 60-90% range for areas south of Lake Ontario. That
said...localized amounts around 1.0" or more still can`t be ruled
out depending on the overall track of the low and even some
potential for convection (S. Tier) in the afternoon. For areas east
of lake Ontario...expect lower precip amounts with probability of 24-
hr precipitation > 0.25" and > 0.50" in the 40-60% range, with
diminishing returns the further north you go across the North
Country and into the St. Lawrence Valley.

With the low passage late Monday afternoon we should see precip
diminishes from west to east. Dry weather then returns Tuesday with
high pressure building in over the region. Unsettled weather makes a
return Thursday as a cold front approaches with increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found across the
region. A weak area of low pressure, combined with a coupled jet
structure will bring a period of rain to our region late tonight
and through a good portion of Monday.

Flight conditions will slowly lower to MVFR as the lower
atmosphere becomes saturated Monday, with IFR ceiling heights
likely for the Southern Tier (KJHW) while KBUF, KIAG and KROC
will likely lower to MVFR or possible IFR at times in the period
of rain. Not as deep moisture east of Lake Ontario will lend to
the lowest chances for IFR for ART.

Rain will taper off to a period of drizzle before ending
through the final 6 hours of the TAF cycle in the west...though
MVFR/IFR flight conditions will likely continue.

Outlook...

Monday night...MVFR/IFR with rain ending in the east. Improving
to VFR late and through early Tuesday.

Remainder of Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will move across the eastern Great Lakes today and
support light winds and waves.

Northeast winds will increase on the Lakes late tonight through
Monday as low pressure tracks south of the region. Northeast winds
may reach small craft thresholds on Lake Erie, especially south of
Dunkirk Monday.

Winds are expected to remain below SCA levels through at least the
middle of the new work week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...HSK