Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

091
FXUS61 KBUF 010009
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
709 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Locally heavy lake effect snows will focus east and northeast of
both lakes, with significant travel impacts this evening. With the
passage of a clipper system, winds will shift to west then northwest
pushing lakes snows south off both lakes later this evening and
tonight. Lake snows will remain primarily focused southeast of the
lakes Thursday and the rest of the week with varying intensity and
placement.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Intense snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour, even reaching 4" at
times off Lake Erie will impact parts of the Buffalo Metro area
and Buffalo Southtowns this evening. There is even the potential
for `thundersnow` close to the Lake Erie shoreline which has
already occurred a few times this evening.

A clipper system is approaching the region which will begin to veer
winds to the west then northwest by tonight. This will take the lake
enhanced snows and push it rapidly south into the western Southern
Tier and away from Buffalo. That said...along the cold front, we may
see some intense focused bands of heavier snowfall that will become
transient as they push southeast which may lead to localized harsh
winter driving conditions. As the lake bands settle southeast of the
lakes, lake snows will diminish to just light snow across the
western Southern Tier overnight as drier air works into the region.

Off Lake Ontario...the bands of lake effect snow have moved north
across the northern half of Jefferson county. The bands are a bit
weaker then Lake Erie as shear has increased but are still capable
of producing rates of 1-2" per hour at times. Even so...a similar
story will unfold as described above (Lake Erie) but will take place
just a few hours later as the clipper passes through that region.
The organized lake snows northeast of the lake will shift quickly
south through the Watertown metro area and then across the Tug Hill
region as flow becomes westerly. As flow further veers and becomes
northwest tonight lakes snows will settle across areas southeast of
the lake after midnight but this time will `not` be as intense.

Otherwise...areas outside of lake effect, the clipper system will
bring a light snow through this evening. The clipper cold front will
also likely produce a few snow squalls which will extend inland
beyond typical lake effect areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Starting Thursday night, a few shortwave troughs, along with a
passing weak sfc low will start to increase the potential for snow
showers to develop off of both lakes. Friday morning, another brief
round of widespread light snow, mainly south of Lake Ontario is
expected as a wave crosses the area. Certainty among guidance for
the timing of the passing troughs is starting to increase some as
lake effect snow will start to organize more Thursday night. By
Friday afternoon the widespread snow showers should move out of the
area and the lake effect snow will become the dominant source of the
snow through Friday night. Lake effect will focus mainly east to
east-southeast of both lakes, but brief oscillations to the
northeast of both lakes is possible at times through Friday
afternoon. As the winds shift more toward the west-northwest, the
lake band off of Lake Ontario will shift to the south, aligning
with much of the south shore of the lake. With this wind shift, the
band off of Lake Erie will drop southeast of the lake and weaken
Friday night as an incoming ridge starts to lower ELs. Snowfall
amounts from Thursday night through Friday night will be greatest
east-southeast of Lake Ontario where the better lake fetch within
the mostly westerly to west-northwesterly dominant flow will allow
lake effect to become better organized. 6 to 12 inches is possible
for much of these areas, especially for most of Oswego County, with
a narrow area of up to 18 inches possible if the lake bands become
more stationary. East of lake erie, 4 to 8 inches is expected during
this time.

Any lingering lake effect snow southeast of the lakes on Saturday
morning will taper off through the day as ridging briefly increases
some. Snow off of Lake Ontario will continue the longest. Southeast
of Lake Erie a coating to an inch of snow will be possible, while
southeast of Lake Ontario an additional 1 to 3 inches will be
possible. The break in the snow will be brief as yet another clipper
type system tracks southeast across the region Saturday night.
Snowfall from this system will remain generally light with amounts
of an inch or two possible.

Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be in the upper teens to
mid 20s for most areas. Overnight lows for Thursday through Saturday
nights will be in the single digits to mid teens for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period will remain active with several passing
shortwave troughs through the period, but temperatures will warm
starting on Monday and continue to warm into at least the middle of
next week. As temperatures warm above freezing during the new work
week, snow will mix with or change to rain for most areas at times
during the period, especially during the afternoon hours when the
warmest temperatures are expected. There is at least a chance for
rain and/or snow showers each day of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIFR conditions will be found within the heavier lake enhanced bands
of snow, especially near KBUF and KART through this evening. A cold
front will pass through the region later this evening shifting winds
out of the west then northwest pushing lake effect snows back south.
This could result in brief periods with rapidly changing conditions
for area terminals before lake snows weaken, but settle southeast of
the lakes as we head into Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR in
lake effect snow east/southeast of the lakes.

Friday...Local IFR/LIFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes,
VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers elsewhere.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR in lake
effect snow east of the lakes.

Sunday and Monday...VFR/MVFR conditions with scattered snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue
through the end of the week on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario before
winds diminish over the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ001>003-
     013-014-021.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for NYZ004-005.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ010-011.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST Friday for NYZ012-019-020-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/Brothers
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AR/Brothers
MARINE...AR/Hitchcock