Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

035
FXUS61 KBUF 061822
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
222 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased wind gusts across the region.

Severe weather risk has decreased across the region.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty west-southwest winds will continue across the region today.

2) Showers and thunderstorms for some areas today, with
localized heavy downpours and an isolated severe weather risk.

3) Mainly dry weather returns Sunday through early next week with
warm temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty west-southwest winds will continue across the
region today.

A 40-50 knot low level jet will continue to move across the region
through this evening. Daytime mixing and clearing have supported
wind gusts 40-50 mph, with the strongest gusts along the Lake Erie
shoreline to the Niagara Frontier this morning. As winds aloft veer,
gusts will diminish across far western NY, while increasing across
the Finger Lakes region and east of Lake Ontario through the late
afternoon. Gusts up to 30-40 mph are expected along the Lake Ontario
shoreline

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms for some areas today,
with localized heavy downpours and an isolated severe weather
risk.

A mid level trough is moving across the eastern Great Lakes region,
while an area of low pressure moves across eastern Ontario to
southern Quebec through tonight. A cold front extends south across
southern Ontario to southern Michigan. A strong southwest flow
across the Lower Great Lakes has stabilized a majority of western NY
this afternoon. Lake breeze boundaries are located near the
Pennsylvania border and the Niagara Frontier to Lake Ontario this
afternoon. Destabilization has formed across the region SBCAPE 1-1.5
J/kg across the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes region, and less
than 1 K/Jg elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms are become numerous
in Pennsylvania with showers just clipping southern Allegany county
this afternoon. There remains a low risk of a severe thunderstorm
near the Pennsylvania border today.

Cloudy weather has persisted east of Lake Ontario for much of the
day, however clearing is expected this afternoon. As instability
grows inland from Lake Ontario, showers and thunderstorms are
possible along the cold front or lake breeze boundary through this
evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging
winds as the main threat. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
possible across the North Country as the low moves north of the
region.

Showers will exit the North Country this evening. Dry weather is
expected across the forecast area late tonight into Sunday. Patchy
fog is possible across valley locations of the Southern Tier.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry weather returns Sunday through early next
week with warm temperatures.

A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast Sunday then depart
to the east. A ridge will build into the Great Lakes region and move
east across the eastern Great Lakes region through the start of the
work week. Dry weather is expected with day to day warming. A mid
level trough and plume of deeper moisture over the Ohio Valley may
move far enough east to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms
again by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gusty southwest winds will continue across the region this
afternoon, with the strongest wind gusts along the Lake Erie
shoreline to the Niagara Frontier today. Gusts will peak across
western NY through the early afternoon hours, with the strongest
winds occurring where it has cleared out. Gusty southwest winds will
pick up east of Lake Ontario late this afternoon.

Destabilization outside of lake breezes will support a chance of
showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Flight conditions
will lower to low-end VFR/MVFR ahead an approach cold front with
widespread MVFR CIGS developing across the western Southern Tier and
North Country today. Some thunderstorms may produce locally strong
wind gusts. A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible
across KART through this evening as low pressure moves north of the
region. Mostly dry weather is expected across western NY tonight
through Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly MVFR/VFR. Localized IFR in any showers and
thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier
showers or storms.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of low pressure will move east across southern Ontario,
reaching southern Quebec this evening. Breezy southwesterlies will
become west behind a cold front this evening. Small Craft Advisories
are in effect on the eastern end of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon through early evening. A few storms could produce locally
strong winds and high waves.

Westerly winds will remain elevated on Lake Ontario, especially the
eastern end through Sunday. While winds and waves will be below
small craft thresholds, choppy conditions are expected. Light winds
and gentle waves are expected on Lake Erie late tonight through
Sunday.

The outlook shows light winds and gentle waves for the start of the
work week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020-
         040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK