Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

614
FXUS61 KBUF 120149
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
849 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Winter Weather Advisory for areas east of Lake Erie has been
cancelled.

Lake effect snow showers have diminished to a few scattered flurries
across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie with minimal additional
accumulation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario will quickly diminish
overnight, with winds gradually diminishing.

2) A clipper low will enhance lake snows Monday and Monday night,
mainly east of Lake Ontario with additional modest accumulations.
Winds will become gusty again Monday, especially northeast of Lake
Erie.

3) Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday night through
Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and mixed
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario will quickly
diminish overnight, with winds gradually diminishing.

Lake effect snow east of Lake Erie has rapidly diminished this
evening, with just a few scattered flurries left across the higher
terrain east of the lake. Additional accumulations will be minimal
overnight, so the Winter Weather Advisory for counties east of Lake
Erie has been cancelled.

Snow is diminishing in intensity east of Lake Ontario as deeper
moisture and synoptic scale ascent move east of the area. The
weakening trend will continue through late evening, with just a few
light snow showers left after midnight mainly southeast of the lake.

WNW winds remain gusty this evening, in the 30-40 mph range in most
areas. Winds will gradually diminish overnight as the pressure
gradient relaxes somewhat across the eastern Great Lakes.

Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect east of Lake Ontario
through early Tuesday morning when taking into consideration the
additional snowfall expected there Monday and Monday night. See Key
Message 2.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A clipper low will enhance lake snows Monday and
Monday night, mainly east of Lake Ontario with additional modest
accumulations. Winds will become gusty again Monday, especially
northeast of Lake Erie.

A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes, reaching the
eastern Great Lakes Monday. Warm air advection will be found ahead
of this shortwave, making poorer conditions for lake effect snow,
though this feature will bring back ample moisture supporting snow
growth. Temperatures at 850 mb around -10C over Lake Ontario will
be just cold enough to allow for a band of lake enhanced snow,
which combined with upslope terrain east of Lake Ontario, will
bring additional snow accumulation on the Tug Hill and western
Adirondack foot hills. Lower terrain will remain with much less
snow accumulation.

East of Lake Erie temperatures of 850 mb will be too warm for a
robust lake response with the -6 to -7C air just cold enough for a
few lake enhanced snow showers, combined with general lift ahead of
the shortwave snow that around an inch of snow will accumulate east
and northeast of Lake Erie, including the Buffalo Metro area.

It is possible that the warmer environment the snow DGZ will be
elevated, possibly above the layer of low level moisture, which may
allow for the snow to taper off with a little freezing drizzle
Monday evening and overnight.

The temporary lull in winds late tonight and early Monday morning
will not last, with the clipper tightening the pressure gradient and
bringing gusty winds again from late morning through early evening
Monday. The strongest winds will be found northeast of Lake Erie,
with gusts in the 35-45 mph range across the Niagara Frontier. Gusts
will be in the 25-35 mph range elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday
night through Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and
mixed precipitation.

Ahead of a slightly deepening surface low, forecast models still
have around a 50 knots low level jet across the area Tuesday night,
with the jet supporting warming in the lower atmosphere. NBM
probabilities have a 40 to 50 percent chance for southwest wind
gusts to 30 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline and across the metro
Buffalo/Niagara Falls area Tuesday evening.

The warmer temperatures will support mainly rain Tuesday night.
Overall, rainfall will be light to modest, with lake enhanced and
upslope terrain effects possibly yielding up to a third of an inch
of liquid before a change over back to snow later Wednesday. Thus
hydro concerns will remain low.

Light rain and higher terrain snow Tuesday night into Wednesday will
become all snow Wednesday evening following the passage of a strong
cold front. Models continue to have disagreement with the depth and
placement of a closed low within an upper level trough to our west
Thursday and into Friday. Greater certainty in the return to cold
air with good agreement that 850 hPa temperatures will drop 10 or so
degrees behind the cold front into Thursday, which could lead to
some lake snows on a northerly flow. Dry, arctic air will not
support any significant snow accumulation for the lake snows.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake effect snow east of Lake Erie has diminished to just a few
scattered flurries across the higher terrain east of the lake, with
mainly VFR VSBY. Areas of MVFR CIGS will linger overnight across the
higher terrain east of the lake, including KJHW. Snow showers east
of Lake Ontario are diminishing in intensity and coverage, with just
a few light snow showers and local MVFR expected to remain southeast
of the lake by late evening through the overnight.

Monday, another mid level trough and weak surface trough will cross
the eastern Great Lakes. Boundary layer flow will back from WNW to
WSW, and increased moisture and synoptic scale ascent will allow for
lake effect snow to increase in coverage and intensity east of the
lakes. Off Lake Ontario, expect snow to center on the northern Tug
Hill Plateau most of the day, with at least the northern edge of the
band clipping KART with periods of IFR. Heavier snow across the Tug
Hill may bring LIFR there. Off Lake Erie, lake effect snow showers
will develop near KBUF and continue through the day with MVFR/IFR
VSBY.

Wind gusts of 30-35 knots this evening will diminish overnight.
Winds will ramp up again Monday as the trough crosses the eastern
Great Lakes. Expect gusts of 20-30 knots for most of the area, and
locally 30-40 knots northeast of Lake Erie including KBUF and KIAG
from late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night...Localized IFR/LIFR with mixed lake effect
precipitation east/northeast of the lakes. Mainly VFR/MVFR elsewhere.

Tuesday...VFR to MVFR.

Tuesday night...Mainly MVFR with increasing chances for rain. Wet
snow at higher elevations with attendant IFR conditions.

Wednesday...MVFR with a mix of rain and snow showers, with IFR
possible in any snow showers.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with localized lake enhanced snow showers
possible east-southeast of the lakes.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with localized lake effect snow showers east-
northeast of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Gales have ended on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with winds
continuing to diminish overnight on both lakes. Winds will increase
again Monday as a clipper passes just north of the lakes, with
sustained winds increasing back to near 30 knots on both lakes. High
end Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist through Tuesday
morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/JJR/TMA