Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

387
FXUS61 KBUF 241024
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
624 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased the probability of showers tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of rain will end from west to east this morning, with a
return to dry weather this afternoon.

2) Gusty winds across the higher terrain and the northern Tug Hill
region today.

3) Above normal and mostly dry conditions expected Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain will end from west to east this
morning, with a return to dry weather this afternoon.

An area of low pressure over eastern Michigan and southern Lake
Huron will slowly dissipate as it moves north today. While a warm
front remains across the forecast area, a 40-50 knot low-level jet
continues to support periods of rain, primarily along and east of
the Genesee Valley.

A stream of drier air moving in from the west this morning will
cause rain to become more showery before ending across western NY by
mid-morning and across the eastern Lake Ontario region by this
afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts are expected to range from
less than a tenth of an inch across western NY to between 0.15 and
0.50 inches across the eastern Lake Ontario region.

Clouds are expected to linger throughout the day, however a
southerly, downslope flow will likely provide some break sin
coverage across the lower elevations of western NY.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Gusty winds across the higher terrain and the
northern Tug Hill region today.

A 40-50 knot low level jet across the region will move east today.
Wind gusts have diminished along the northwest slope of the
Chautauqua Ridge, however wind gusts up to 35 mph remain possible
across the higher terrain of western NY early this morning.

Wind gusts are expected to increase across the northern Tug Hill
region today, with gusts up to 40 mph at times.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Above normal and mostly dry conditions expected
Monday through Wednesday.

As the base of a mid-level trough moves east Monday morning, dry and
warmer weather will be the story through midweek. Mean 850mb
temperatures are expected to range from +12-14C through the period
and support high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. Afternoon lake
breezes will keep lakeshore locations cooler. Low temperatures are
expected to be in the 50s.

A cold front will push south out of SE Canada Wednesday, and could
produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm but will be working with
limited moisture. Cooler, but near normal conditions then develop
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is a mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR flight conditions across
the region this morning. Widespread rain has become more showery
across the eastern Lake Ontario and Finger Lakes region. The
potential for showers will end by 15z across western NY and 18z
across north-central NY. Wind gusts have mostly subsided at the
TAF sites, however southeast wind gusts up to 35 knots are
possible soon after daybreak.

Behind this precipitation, low-end VFR/high-end MVFR ceiling
heights, with occasional IFR ceilings for the Southern Tier,
will linger through much of the day. There may be breaks in the
clouds on a southerly downslope flow for KBUF, KIAG, KROC and
later KART that may produce VFR flight conditions.

This evening MVFR ceiling heights will gather again ahead of a cold
front...with this front bringing scattered to numerous rain showers
the final 9 hours of this TAF cycle. Modest instability may allow
for a rumble of thunder south of Lake Ontario this evening. Ceiling
heights will likely lower to IFR for the Southern Tier (KJHW) but
also possible to IFR for KIAG and KROC as winds veer to northwest
behind the front. These rain showers will taper off from west to
east between 06Z and 12Z.

Outlook...

Monday...MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR.

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of a
few showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast winds will gradually decline across Lake Erie and western
Lake Ontario this morning, while increasing on the eastern end of
Lake Ontario today. The greater waves will remain offshore, however
15 to 25 knots are expected through early this morning on Lake Erie
and western Lake Erie and through this evening on eastern Lake
Ontario.

Light winds and more favorable boating conditions will return
Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK/Thomas
MARINE...HSK