Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

539
FXUS61 KBUF 191832
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
132 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to snowfall amounts off Lake Erie but overall amounts
remain largely unchanged.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very cold w/accumulating lake snows east-northeast of the lakes
this evening and tonight, w/some oscillation expected with the bands
through Tuesday

2) Lake snows move north late Tuesday afternoon and evening while
gradually weakening in the process.

3) Widespread snow and gusty winds Wednesday to be followed by
additional lake effect snow through the end of the week.

4) Bitterly cold airmass to settle over Eastern Great Lakes
through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Frigid w/accumulating lake snows east-northeast of
the lakes late this afternoon through tonight, w/some oscillation
expected with the bands through Tuesday

Arctic front will usher in a frigid airmass with significant lake
effect snows expected east and east-northeast of both lakes through
Tuesday.

Off of Lake Erie...

With the Arctic front nearing lake effect snow band has quickly push
south into the Southtowns (Hamburg, Orchard Park, and East Aurora)
this afternoon, and may possibly push as far south into N. Collins
and Holland area and parts of the S. Tier. Once the band pushes
south, it appears it will re-organize back across the Southtowns by
this evening and then strengthen. Per latest guidance...there is
also some indication that the lake band `may` oscillate (wiggle)
back north a bit tonight, possibly touching the Buffalo Metro area
again before settling south of the city (Southtowns) through
Tuesday.

Overall...the greatest snowfall amounts still looks to be across the
Buffalo Southtowns (Hamburg, Orchard Park, and East Aurora) into NW
Wyoming County where snow amounts may approach 2 feet. Outside of
these areas, a solid 6 to 12 inches is possible for far northern and
southern Erie County and extreme northwest Chautauqua and
Cattaraugus counties. A localized strip of 6 to 12 inches of snow
will also be possible across Grand Island and Niagara Falls
northeast into Niagara County, before the band shifts south. As far
as the Buffalo metro area...minor changes to snowfall amounts have
been made to account for oscillation (wiggle) in the band for
tonight. Expect snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible at times.

Off of Lake Ontario...

Lake snows will become better organized this afternoon and drop
south focusing on areas east-northeast of the lake through most of
the evening from Watertown to Adams. The lake band will then shift a
bit further south tonight, focusing on areas east of Lake Ontario,
where it will linger through the day on Tuesday. The lake band will
remain focused over or just north of the Tug Hill for most of this
time and over the southern Half of Jefferson County and into western
Lewis and northern Oswego counties. Snowfall rates of up to 4 inches
per hour will be possible with the lake band off of Lake Ontario as
impressive 12k+ ft equilibrium heights develop and as the lake band
takes advantage of the long fetch over the lake. Total snowfall
amounts of 2 to 4 feet will be possible for areas from near the
lakeshore on Jefferson County to the Tug Hill area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Lake snows move north late Tuesday afternoon and
evening while gradually weakening in the process.

Winds will begin to back to the southwest Tuesday evening then south
late Tuesday night in response to the upstream trough nearing the
region. This will begin the process of shifting lake snows back
north as we head into early Wednesday morning. Even so...we will
still see some accumulating snows overnight into Wednesday morning.
However...there remain some uncertainty as to how intense the bands
off both lakes be as the shift occurs northward, especially off Lake
Erie. It is quite possible some locales could pick up a few inches
with the northward jog before the band dissipates all together on
Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread snow and gusty winds Wednesday to be
followed by additional lake effect snow through the end of the
week.

A shortwave trough will advance across the Great Lakes Wednesday,
with a warm front ahead of a surface low bringing widespread snow to
our region through the day. Convergent lift ahead of a 50 to 60 knot
LLJ will support a period of snow for our region ahead of a strong
cold front that will arrive later in the day. NBM probabilities of 3
inches or more of snow favors the higher terrain east of both Lakes
(Boston/Wyoming Hills and Tug Hill) with perhaps overall snow total
reaching advisory levels.

Models keep the core of this strong LLJ within the warm sector of
this storm system, with poor mixing likely to keep winds from
gusting strong at the surface through the day, though with the cold
front passage in the evening, and with better mixing, could see a
few gusts reach 45 mph northeast of both lakes.

Behind this front lake effect snow is expected east of both Lakes.
While decent moisture remains Thursday, drier air arrives in the mid
levels that will weaken the Lake Erie band by Friday...and later the
Lake Ontario band of snow. Increasing ice coverage on Lake Erie will
also influence the snowband...keeping the higher probabilities for
potential warning level snows east of Lake Ontario on the Tug Hill.

As winds lighten lake snowbands will contract back to the the lakes
within an increasing colder airmass Friday and Saturday...with light
flurries or snow showers south of Lake Ontario Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Bitterly cold airmass to settle over Eastern
Great Lakes through this weekend.

An anomalous strong western ridge of high pressure will extend
northward across Alaska and towards the arctic circle, allowing for
polar air to slide southward across Canada this week...with the cold
air supporting a strong +2 to +3 SD 1050 mb surface high pressure
over the northern Plains Friday. Temperatures at 850 hPa will fall
to the mid negative 20s Friday night through Sunday ahead of this
surface high. A bitterly cold weekend with highs in the single
digits, and overnight lows well below zero. Could even see air
temperatures reach the negative 20s overnight near Watertown both
Friday night and Saturday night if skies clear. A light wind will
support the likelihood for extreme cold headlines for this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An arctic front has shifted the lake bands south early afternoon,
while also sharply increasing winds. IFR-LIFR conditions expected
east-northeast of the Lake Erie within the heart of the  bands, with
snowfall rates of 2 to 3" or more possible at times.

Off Lake Ontario lake snows should begin to intensify this afternoon
and shift south from the Saint Lawrence River and reach KART
beginning around 17-19z, before sliding south of that terminal
around 21z late this afternoon.

Elsewhere, expect some snow showers and MVFR/IFR can be expected at
times.

There will be a period of gusts in excess of 40 kts at KBUF/KIAG
with the arrival of the front, though gusts of 30-40 kts will be
common across the region into this evening.

Tonight...lake effect snows will mainly focus east of the lakes with
IFR-LIFR with in the bands. Terminals outside of the bands will see
MVFR to occasional IFR within snow showers.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
with IFR/LIFR in bands. MVFR/brief IFR outside of lake effect areas
within snow showers.

Wednesday...Snow showers increase in coverage areawide with cold
front. IFR or below at times.

Thursday...Lake effect snow east and northeast of the lakes with
IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR/brief IFR outside of lake effect areas
within snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...MVFR with areas of IFR. Chance of snow
showers, especially northeast of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
An arctic front will cross the lower Great Lakes today as deepening
low pressure tracks through the northern Great Lakes and into
Ontario and Quebec. Behind the front, west-southwest winds will
increase to 35-40 knot gales with gusts to 45 knots. Gale
Warnings in effect for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. A Small
Craft Advisory for the Niagara River.

Heavy Freezing Spray will be a concern during the period of gales. A
heavy freezing spray warning remains for both Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario for rapid ice accretion on vessels.

South-southwest winds ramp back up to 20-30 knots behind a warm
front Wednesday and Wednesday night, with winds shifting more
westerly by Thursday behind a cold front. Westerly winds will
remain elevated into Friday as another round of arctic air
spreads in.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ001-002-
     006>008-010-011.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ012-019-
     020-085.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ012-019>021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/Thomas
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/TMA