Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

038
FXUS61 KBUF 042312
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
712 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slight adjustments made to precip chances tonight and Tuesday,
mainly to indicate the potential for a break in the precip across
WNY Tuesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and breezy/windy conditions into Tuesday, with much cooler
temperatures returning by midweek.

2) Increasingly active weather returns tonight and Tuesday, with
another soaking rainfall expected later Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer and breezy/windy conditions into Tuesday,
with much cooler temperatures returning by midweek.

Through Tuesday, the Great Lakes will remain sandwiched between a
reloading longwave trough across central/eastern Canada moving into
the Northern Tier of the CONUS, and a developing Bermuda High in the
Atlantic. Deep southwesterly flow across the Mississippi Valley
between these features will continue to advect an airmass with 850mb
temps between +7C and +10C into the region through, likely peaking
this evening through early Tuesday morning. This will continue to
support sfc temperatures above normal for early May through at least
tonight, though for the Finger Lakes region likely through Tuesday
as well.

In the same environment, a tight pressure gradient will allow
several LLJ segments to cross into the region, supporting breezy to
locally windy conditions through at least the first half of Tuesday.
While this LLJ will peak in strength between 40-50kts at 925mb,
several factors will be working against the potential for deeper
mixing to the surface...Mainly the warm/neutral advective pattern,
unfavorable diurnal timing, and increasing clouds/precip coverage.
Some models (namely the NAM & Canadian) are a bit more concerning
with a stronger jet that is oriented up the long axis of Lake Erie
and St. Lawrence Valley, which would suggest near advisory-level
gusts especially across the latter. Thinking the other factors will
preclude this from happening, though gusts of 30-40mph are still
probable northeast of the lakes at times until Tuesday afternoon.

The warmth and gusty winds will diminish with the passage of a slow-
moving but strong cold front between Tuesday afternoon and evening.
850mb temps will fall to around 0C in the immediate post-frontal
environment, with weak cold advection inside the impinging longwave
trough slowly knocking several more degrees off this metric through
the rest of the week. This will translate to surface high temps
falling back into the 40s and 50s from midweek onwards, though some
degree of warming may occur over the weekend. Not out of the
question that another round of frost/freeze headlines is needed at
night with lows in the 30s expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasingly active weather returns tonight and
Tuesday, with another soaking rainfall expected later Tuesday into
Wednesday.

The aforementioned northern trough, cold front and LLJ segments as
described in Key Message (1) will increase the amount of synoptic-
scale forcing across the eastern Great Lakes tonight through much of
Wednesday. The deep southwesterly flow across the Mississippi Valley
will also advect a deep plume of PWATs 1-1.5" into this environment,
which will be ample fuel to support yet another soaking rainfall
across the region. There will likely be a few showers or isolated
thunderstorms tonight on the nose of the strongest LLJ segment,
though the main timeframe for soaking showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday as
instability and forcing grows ahead of the cold front.

Still quite a bit of uncertainty in the details here as models
continue to struggle with the timing of the front and the more
weakly forced environment tonight and early Tuesday. Multiple waves
of low pressure are expected to ride up along the front as the main
sfc low undergoes a complex interaction with a secondary low up near
the Hudson Strait. This will likely cause the thermal gradient to
tighten and overall frontal progression to slow considerably as it
moves through the forecast area, the setup for which is proving
rather sensitive for the models. This will also influence the
strength and position of the overhead jet, which will in turn
determine shear magnitudes necessary for more organized convection
to form. In the most pessimistic scenarios, the frontal progression
is slower which places the stronger jet energy and growing
instability across the Finger Lakes and North Country Tuesday
afternoon. Cannot rule out this scenario which may spark a couple of
strong to severe storms in the region.

Otherwise, rainfall amounts between tonight and early Wednesday are
expected to average between 0.75-1.25" in most areas, though there
will likely be a swath of totals closer to 1.5" in the corridor
between the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes and Tug Hill region. Locally
higher totals will be possible deepening on how convection evolves
throughout the day Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mainly VFR cloud deck will thicken and lower from southwest to
northeast tonight ahead of an approaching trough. Scattered showers
and a few isolated thunderstorms will spread from southwest to
northeast in response to moisture transport and the arrival of
elevated instability. The best chance of showers will be late
evening through early overnight across Western NY, and overnight for
points farther east. The best chance of a few thunderstorms will be
across the western Southern Tier including KJHW for a few hours mid
to late evening before instability wanes overnight.

Tuesday, there may be a few scattered showers in the morning with
sparse coverage. CIGS will remain VFR in most areas, with some MVFR
possibly developing across Western NY. A cold front will cross the
eastern Great Lakes in the afternoon and evening, with increasing
moisture convergence along the front and large scale ascent from an
approaching mid level trough and upper level jet supporting
widespread showers in the afternoon and evening. CIGS will
deteriorate to MVFR/low end VFR by mid to late afternoon. There may
be enough instability to support a few scattered thunderstorms as
well, mainly from the Southern Tier through the Genesee Valley,
Finger Lakes, and Central NY.

A belt of 35-45 knot flow will remain in place tonight through early
to mid afternoon Tuesday a few thousand feet off the deck in the
warm sector ahead of the cold front. The low level jet will support
some wind shear tonight as the boundary layer partially decouples
and allows surface winds to decrease somewhat. The stronger winds
aloft will mix more efficiently again Tuesday with diurnal mixing,
supporting surface gusts in the 20-30 knot range areawide, and 30-35
knots downwind of Lake Erie from KIAG and KBUF to KROC from mid
morning through mid afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Mainly IFR with widespread rain.

Wednesday...Widespread IFR in rain, tapering off from northwest to
southeast late in the day.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Friday through Saturday...Restrictions possible with increasing
chances for showers in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will track farther off the mid-Atlantic coast through
the day on Tuesday. The pressure gradient will remain strong over
the region through Tuesday afternoon before weakening Tuesday night.
A cold front moving through on Tuesday will help to bring some winds
to the surface for the marine areas with weak cold air advection,
but the low level jet is expected to weaken behind the front. This
will result in a moderate to fresh breeze through the overnight
hours tonight, lasting through early afternoon Tuesday. In general,
winds and waves will remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria
most of the time, but it will be very choppy on both lakes.

Showers with a few thunderstorms will also be possible tonight with
a better chance Tuesday afternoon. A few storms may contain locally
gusty winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/SW