Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

227
FXUS61 KBUF 050632
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
132 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slightly increased winds and chances for thunderstorms across
the Niagara Frontier Saturday with the cold frontal passage.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain will develop today and tonight, with freezing
rain across the Saint Lawrence Valley and Tug Hill, and possibly
south of Lake Ontario.

2) A strong cold front will bring a round of widespread rain showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms Saturday.

3) Increased risk for flooding through next week, mainly across the
North Country, as a result of above average temperatures and
multiple rounds of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
1) Widespread rain will develop today and tonight, with freezing
rain across the Saint Lawrence Valley and Tug Hill, and possibly
south of Lake Ontario.

A shortwave trough over the upper Midwest this morning will move
east-northeast, reaching the eastern Great Lakes region tonight,
while a weak surface wave moves into the Ohio Valley.

An elevated warm front across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
will lift northward through the Ohio Valley today. Ascent and
moisture will move northward across the Ohio Valley. Large scale
ascent and deeper moisture combined with a strengthening thermal
gradient will move into the region this morning. Scattered rain
showers will arrive into western New York this morning, before
widespread rain develops by this afternoon. Mostly dry weather
will continue east of Lake Ontario.

There will be a large temperature difference across the region this
afternoon with 50s across the western Southern Tier and upper 30s
north of Interstate 90. Thermal profiles continue to suggest the
potential for freezing rain across the northern tier of the area.
The first location is across the southern shore of Lake Ontario,
where forecast temperatures are expected to be right around freezing
this evening and this could result in a period of freezing rain.
Widespread rain is expected to move into the eastern Lake Ontario
region tonight. A northeast flow along the Saint Lawrence Valley
will maintain colder air across northern Jefferson county. This
is a favorable set- up for freezing rain and while there still
remains model spread in the amount of rainfall, one to two tenths
of an inch of ice is expected across northern Jefferson county.
Freezing rain is expected to clip the northern edge of Lewis
county, and temperatures will be around freezing on the higher
elevations (Tug Hill). A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect for Jefferson and Lewis counties late today through Friday
morning.

Precipitation will end from west to east Friday morning. 24 hour
forecast rainfall amounts from 7 am today through 7 am Friday
averaging from 0.25-0.75" across western New York and 0.25" to 0.50"
across the eastern Lake Ontario region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front will bring a round of widespread
rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Saturday.

A positively tilted mid-level shortwave will peel off the Rockies
and slide across the north-central Plains Friday night, then move
through the Great Lakes Saturday through Saturday night. This will
force an attendant sfc low to strengthen as it glides northeast from
the Upper Midwest to southern Quebec, which will in turn drag a
strong 50-60kt southwesterly LLJ east across the forecast area. The
increased forcing and influx of Gulf-based moisture within the
system`s warm sector will cause rain showers to overspread the area
from west to east Saturday afternoon and evening. There will likely
be some scattered shower activity earlier in the day as well as
leading shortwave energy arrives in advance of the system`s cold
front, though the main focus for rain and possibly a few embedded
thunderstorms will be closer to the front itself later in the day.
Showers will quickly taper off in coverage behind the front later
Saturday night.

Looking a bit closer at the thunderstorm potential...Based on the
timing of the front it appears the greatest threat for embedded
convection will be across WNY Saturday afternoon. Guidance also
suggests some elevated instability present in the morning to warrant
keeping NBM`s sChc of thunder earlier in the day. Overall however,
lapse rates and instability looks to be rather limited with this
setup as there will likely be plenty of cloud cover to contend with.
Bulk shear values are fairly impressive (50kts+) due to the strong
LLJ however, so will need to monitor trends for the possibility of
isolated stronger convection.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Increased risk for flooding through next week,
mainly across the North Country, as a result of above average
temperatures and multiple rounds of rain.

While some day-to-day variability is expected, temperatures over the
next 6 to 7 days will be above average for early/mid March with
several rounds of precipitation expected. Long range ensemble
guidance and WPC forecast about 1.5-3" of QPF across the eastern
Great Lakes over the next 7 days. While some of this will fall as a
wintry mix at times across the North Country, the warmer
temperatures will cause most of this QPF to be in the form of plain
rain across the region.

This pattern will lead to rises on most area waterways with an
increased threat for flooding as the rainfall combines with
accelerated snowmelt runoff. Based on the limited amount of SWE and
antecedent water levels well below Action stage however, the threat
for flooding should be very limited for the waterways across WNY.
East of Lake Ontario however, a very different story as recent SWE
surveys have measured over 10" of liquid in the snowpack across the
Tug Hill. This could lead flooding along the Black River and other
rivers that drain the western Adirondacks and Tug Hill Plateau.
MMEFS guidance suggests water levels on the Black River should begin
to rise Friday and crest near the middle of next week, but remain at
odds with maximum crest height in spots such as at ARTN6 (Black
River at Watertown). At the very least, elevated flows to at least
Action stage appear likely, though confidence in higher rises to
flood stage remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Increasing low level moisture will lead to IFR conditions early this
morning across the Southern Tier (KJHW), with some patchy higher
terrain LIFR. Strengthening moist NE flow off Lake Ontario is
expected to deteriorate flight conditions down into the MVFR range
across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) over to KROC, with IFR
possible by around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR will prevail east of
Lake Ontario (KART).

First batch of rain showers will exit east of the area this morning,
however IFR/LIFR conditions will prevail across the Southern Tier
(KJHW), with a mix of MVFR/IFR across the lake plains
(KBUF/KIAG/KROC) through midday, while VFR prevails across the North
Country (KART). A potent mid level shortwave and associated surface
low pressure will then bring a round of rain that will spread from
southwest to northeast across areas south of Lake Ontario through
the afternoon, with IFR/LIFR conditions expected to become dominant.
Otherwise, a few rain showers with conditions possibly worsening to
low VFR/MVFR across the North Country by early this evening.

Outlook...

Tonight...Mainly IFR/LIFR (MVFR North Country lower terrain) with
periods of rain and patchy fog that will taper off from west to east
through the second half of the night. Light freezing rain is
expected across portions of the North Country mid to late evening
into the overnight (possibly getting into KART), with a brief period
of light freezing rain possible from KIAG-KROC Thursday evening.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with just a low chance of rain showers.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR with showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Sunday through Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong Canadian high will slide east across James Bay, reaching
Central Quebec today, while an area of low pressure approaches from
the Ohio Valley. This will cause the pressure gradient to tighten
between these two features with a moderate east-northeasterly breeze
developing across Lake Ontario, with fresh to strong breezes
developing this morning lasting into tonight before slowly tapering
off by Friday morning as the pressure gradient weakens.

SCAs remain in effect for the western two-thirds of the southern
Lake Ontario shoreline from the Niagara River east to Sodus this
morning through Friday morning.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Friday for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
         Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
         Friday for LOZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PP/TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA