Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

938
FXUS61 KBUF 220648
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
248 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Sped up the departure of the steadier precipitation a little this
evening.

Inserted a chance of snow showers...drizzle...and freezing drizzle
south of Lake Ontario later tonight into early Monday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A mix of snow and rain east of Lake Ontario through sunrise.

2) More widespread rain today tapering off this evening.

3) A chance of snow showers...drizzle...and freezing drizzle south
of Lake Ontario later tonight into early Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A mix of snow and rain east of Lake Ontario through
sunrise.

A shortwave trough/associated initial surface wave over the Upper
Great Lakes will ripple southeastward along a tightening thermal
gradient/baroclinic zone through early this morning...with the
center of the wave making it to a position just north of Lake
Ontario by 12z. While we are currently experiencing a break in the
associated precipitation...ongoing warm advection/isentropic upglide
out ahead of this feature is still expected to generate some
additional light pcpn across the eastern Lake Ontario region through
early this morning...with warming thermal profiles allowing this to
transition from a snow/rain shower mix to plain rain showers by
around sunrise. While a little brief/spotty sleet or freezing rain
still cannot be completely ruled out during this transition...the
probabilities of such are fairly low...and any such wintry mix would
be very brief/localized nature were it to actually occur. For this
reason...there is no need for a Winter Weather Advisory at this
time. Meanwhile further south and west pcpn probabilities will be
much lower through early this morning...with a warmer airmass
supporting all liquid.

KEY MESSAGE 2...More widespread rain today tapering off this evening.

As we move through today the initial surface wave will slide off to
our east this morning...while slowly dragging a cold frontal
boundary through our region. By later this morning a second surface
wave will ripple northeastward along this slow-moving boundary...
with another shot of isentropic upglide bringing a period of more
widespread light to perhaps briefly moderate rain showers to our
region during the late morning and afternoon. Across the western
Southern Tier...the presence of some very weak instability (MUCAPES
of 100-200 J/kg) could even allow for a couple rumbles of thunder
this morning. Given the timing of the frontal boundary and the sharp
thermal contrast across it there should be a large south-north
gradient in temps today...which leads to some uncertainty/bust
potential with the high temperature forecast. At present...we expect
highs to range from the upper 30s/lower 40s across Jefferson county
to around 60 near the PA border...followed by falling temps in the
wake of the frontal passage.

This second wave and surface front will then push further south and
east this evening...with model guidance coming into better agreement
on a quicker overall departure of the associated widespread precip.
This should result in a notably reduced potential for accumulating
snow south of Lake Ontario as the pcpn winds down this evening...
though it may still end as some spotty light snow showers or drizzle
as the deeper synoptic moisture gets stripped away from the
dendritic snow growth zone.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A chance of snow showers...drizzle...and freezing
drizzle south of Lake Ontario later tonight into early Monday
morning.

As we push through the second half of tonight...the deepening
northerly upslope flow of colder air in the wake of today`s system
should result in some spotty light lake effect/upslope-driven
precipitation developing across areas south of Lake Ontario...for
which some slight chance to chance PoPs have been re-inserted into
the forecast. With the prime dendritic snow growth zone remaining
devoid of moisture through early Monday morning...this may turn out
to be another mix (much like what was seen last night) of light snow
showers/flurries and drizzle/freezing drizzle. As we push through
Monday morning and the airmass aloft grows colder and moistens...the
corresponding return of moisture to the DGZ should result in this
mix changing back over to all snow...with this and diurnal warming
of the surface combining to eliminate any freezing drizzle
potential. Some scattered nuisance light lake effect/ upslope snow
showers and flurries will then probably continue south and southeast
of the lakes through the balance of Monday and into Monday
night...before finally getting squelched by building low-level
ridging in time for the start of Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through sunrise...expect flight conditions to deteriorate back to
MVFR across the North Country (including at KART) as an approaching
initial wave of low pressure brings deepening moisture and a renewed
potential for a snow/rain shower mix to that region...with ongoing
warming of the atmospheric column eventually driving a changeover to
all rain showers by 12z. Elsewhere flight conditions will remain VFR
through early this morning...with a period of LLWS likely south of
Lake Ontario as a 40-50 knot low level jet traverses that particular
region.

As we push through today...the initial wave of low pressure will
slide off to our east during the morning while dragging a cold front
south across our area. At the same time...another wave of low
pressure will ripple northeastward along the sagging frontal
boundary and bring a period of more widespread rain showers to our
region. The resultant moistening of the lower levels coupled with
increasing upsloping in the wake of the front will result in flight
conditions lowering to IFR from north to south...with widespread IFR
(LIFR across the higher terrain) developing by mid to late
afternoon.

The front and secondary wave will then quickly depart off to our
southeast this evening with any rain showers consequently tapering
off...and possibly ending as a little light snow/drizzle south of
Lake Ontario as moisture gets stripped away aloft. Overnight...a
deepening northerly upslope flow of colder air should result in some
spotty light lake effect/upslope-driven precipitation developing
across areas south of Lake Ontario...with this potentially coming in
the form of a light snow/drizzle/freezing drizzle mix given the
shallow nature of the remaining low level moisture. Given the
latter...ceilings will largely remain IFR with some LIFR across the
higher terrain through most if not all of the night...with some
IFR/MVFR restrictions to visibility also possible in any lingering
spotty precipitation/light fog.

Outlook...

Monday...Improvement to VFR/MVFR...with any spotty light snow
showers/drizzle/freezing drizzle early giving way to scattered snow
showers.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR with rain showers likely and a chance of snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderately brisk southeasterlies across Lake Ontario out ahead of an
approaching initial wave of low pressure will turn more southerly
and diminish through early this morning...with any corresponding
greater wave action remaining confined to Canadian waters.

The initial surface wave will push off to our east this morning...
while dragging a trailing cold front across the region. In the wake
of the front winds will veer to northwesterly and then northerly
today...then will increase some while turning more northeasterly
tonight. This will especially be the case across the eastern end of
Lake Ontario...where a moderately brisk flow will develop tonight...
and could bring a period of advisory-worthy conditions to areas
between Irondequoit Bay and Mexico Bay.

Winds will then become northwesterly and diminish to 15 knots or
less on Monday...before another brief uptick in winds possibly
develops across Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario late Monday and
Monday evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR