Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

382
FXUS61 KBUF 071017
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
617 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Southern
Tier and western Finger Lakes today, with dry weather elsewhere.

2) Dry weather returns Tuesday night through the first half of
Thursday with temperatures warming above average.

3) The next round of showers and scattered thunderstorms expected
late Thursday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes today, with dry weather
elsewhere.

A few small areas of showers will continue early this morning across
portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. In general, showers
will drift south and shrink in coverage through mid morning. A few
more spotty showers or an isolated thunderstorm may develop from
midday through the afternoon across the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes, but coverage should remain sparse as better forcing and deep
moisture associated with the mid level trough continue to move well
east of the area. Otherwise for the rest of the area, dry weather
will prevail today. Partly to mostly cloud skies will gradually give
way to clearing later this afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather returns Tuesday night through the first
half of Thursday with temperatures warming above average.

A broad area of high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and
eastern Great Lakes tonight through Wednesday, bringing a return to
dry weather. Clearing skies and light winds will likely allow some
patchy fog to develop tonight through early Wednesday morning. Fog
will be most prevalent across the valleys of the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes, but some patchy fog is also possible in other
locations. Dry weather will continue through at least the first half
of Thursday.

A gradual warming trend will continue through midweek. Highs
Wednesday and Thursday will reach the mid to upper 80s for lower
elevations away from lake influences. Humidity will also creep
upward, with a heat index in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most
lower elevation locations, and possibly mid 90s for areas just south
of Lake Ontario and the western Finger Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The next round of showers and scattered
thunderstorms expected late Thursday through Friday.

A mid level trough and weak cold front will move into the central
Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon. Weak forcing will gradually
overspread the area, and this may support a few widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms by late Thursday afternoon. A southwest
breeze will support expansive stable lake shadows northeast of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario, likely keeping locations northeast of the
lakes dry.

The mid level trough and weak cold front will gradually cross the
eastern Great Lakes Thursday night through Friday, producing showers
and a few scattered thunderstorms. The diurnal timing of the cold
front will likely keep any severe weather potential to a minimum.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered light showers will continue this morning across portions
of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier, with areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS.
A few more spotty showers or an isolated thunderstorm may develop
this afternoon across the Southern Tier, but coverage will be very
sparse. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue across the higher terrain
of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes through the day, although most
of the IFR should lift to MVFR by midday. The lower elevation lake
plains will be mainly VFR.

Tonight, partial clearing and light winds will allow for good
radiational cooling conditions. This will allow for patchy fog to
develop overnight with areas of IFR VSBY. Fog will be most prevalent
across the valleys of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, where LIFR
is likely. For the terminals, fog is most likely at KJHW, with some
lower potential at KIAG and KROC as well.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Early morning fog with local IFR, otherwise VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms
inland from the lakes in the afternoon.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms likely at times.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
East to northeast winds will continue to produce a light to moderate
chop on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie today, with the greatest wave
action on the western half of Lake Ontario. Winds and waves will
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Light winds will return Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure
settles over the lower Great Lakes. Southwest winds will increase
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front, with choppy conditions
developing on both lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock