Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

544
FXUS61 KBUF 111742
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
142 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost Advisory and Freeze Warnings in effect tonight into Tuesday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread frost tonight into Tuesday morning, with freeze
conditions across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

2) Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week with periods
of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread frost tonight into Tuesday morning, with
freeze conditions across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

Surface high pressure centered over the central Great Lakes this
afternoon, will drift east overhead of the eastern Great Lakes
tonight into Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the heart of the cold air
will push into the base of the longwave troughing pattern overhead
of New York State. Combination of the cold air, the surface high
overhead, light winds, and clear skies will support ample
radiational cooling tonight, supporting temperatures to plummet into
the low to mid 30s areawide, with upper 20s likely in the
climatologically colder Southern Tier Valley and Tug Hill region. As
a result, a Frost Advisory is in effect tonight for expected
widespread frost south of Lake Ontario. For the colder areas across
of the Southern Tier and the eastern Lake Ontario region, freeze
conditions are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week
with periods of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.

The next potent Pacific shortwave will dig southeast into the
longwave trough overhead of the Northeast by Thursday, resulting the
next period of unsettled weather Tuesday night through at least
Thursday night.

An area warm moist air will advect into the region Tuesday night,
supporting the development of widespread rain from west to east.
Widespread rain will last into Wednesday morning before a mid-level
dry slot pushes overhead of the eastern Great Lakes by the afternoon
hours and cause the activity to become of more of a showery nature.
Showers will then continue Wednesday night through Thursday night as
the mid-level trough and weak vertically stacked surface low will
cross the eastern Great Lakes due to increased ascent and moisture.

Model guidance continues to diverge on the timing of this system by
Friday, with the GFS suggesting a faster exit off the New England
coast, while the GEM and especially ECMWF show a slower progression
and lingering showers. The current forecast is mainly dry for our
area Friday, but this may change pending future model trends.

There is still some spread in model and ensemble guidance in total
rainfall amounts for the Tuesday night through Thursday night
period, but even the higher end of the guidance envelope does not
generate enough QPF for any flood concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected to continue across the region
this afternoon. A few spotty showers are possible along a
convergence zone across the Niagara Frontier extending to the Finger
Lakes region.

High pressure will move overhead and dry weather and clear skies
will support widespread VFR conditions across the region tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday... MVFR/IFR with periods of rain. A few widely scattered
thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR improving to MVFR/VFR with occasional showers.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW winds will increase on Lake Ontario this afternoon and evening,
with a light to moderate chop especially on the east half of the
lake. High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes tonight,
with diminishing winds. Light winds will continue Tuesday as high
pressure drifts to the east coast.

Low pressure will then cross the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night,
reaching the lower Great Lakes Wednesday. Southeast winds will ramp
up ahead of this system later Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning, likely bringing a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions
to the east end of Lake Ontario. Winds will become more
southwesterly with time later Wednesday, with a moderate chop on
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ001>005-014.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ006>008-010>013-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock