Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

172
FXUS61 KBUF 041018
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
618 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers likely at times today, along with scattered
thunderstorms. Isolated severe thunderstorms possible across the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

2) Unsettled weather will continue Sunday through Monday with
occasional showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across
southern portions of the area.

3) Temperatures and humidity will continue to trend downward this
weekend following the heat wave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers likely at times today, along with scattered
thunderstorms. Isolated severe thunderstorms possible across the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Scattered showers and isolated thunder will continue to cross the
area from west to east through mid to late morning as a series of
weak, convectively modulated shortwaves cross the eastern Great
Lakes atop a weak east-west oriented frontal zone. The coverage of
showers should remain widely scattered through mid to late morning
with weak forcing and limited instability.

The coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms will increase
during the midday hours with diurnal destabilization and the approach
of additional mid level height falls and small scale shortwaves. The
increase in background synoptic scale forcing will also interact
with lake breeze convergence zones as background flow gradually
veers today as the frontal zone drifts southward, but lake forced
southwest flow continues over and northeast of Lake Erie. Peak
coverage of showers and thunder will be this afternoon, then showers
will quickly diminish early this evening with the loss of daytime
heating, and as the frontal zone continues to sink southward towards
northern PA. Most of the thunder should end by sunset as the
boundary layer stabilizes.

There will be more cloud cover today than recent days, which will
limit destabilization in some areas. Nonetheless, breaks in the
clouds will allow the very warm and humid airmass to destabilize
sufficiently to support at least a low end risk of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon. Effective shear will be quite weak,
but a few isolated strong to severe storms are possible in the
afternoon with peak heating. The main risk will be localized strong
wind gusts from precipitation loading and collapsing cores, mainly
across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. The limited severe risk
will quickly diminish early this evening with the loss of diurnal
instability.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather will continue Sunday through
Monday with occasional showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
across southern portions of the area.

A weak mid level trough will gradually sharpen across the Great
Lakes Sunday through early Monday, then cross the eastern Great
Lakes late Monday through Monday night. At the surface, a weak low
will develop over Ohio Sunday, then drift east towards the Mid
Atlantic Monday. A plume of deep moisture will remain in place
across Ohio and Pennsylvania and likely the Southern Tier of NY as
well. Much drier air will be poised just north of the region across
Ontario and Quebec, resulting in a sharp northern edge of clouds and
rain chances.

Occasional showers and a few scattered thunderstorms will continue
Sunday through Monday across the Southern Tier in close proximity to
more favorable moisture and forcing. Rain chances will be lower
along and north of the NY Thruway, although there is still some
uncertainty with respect to the northern edge of the rain with this
system. The North Country will be deeper into the dry air associated
with high pressure over Quebec, and have the lowest chance of rain
through the period.

The mid level trough will linger over the Northeast US Tuesday, and
may still support a few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms
mainly inland from the lakes. Mainly dry weather will return by
Wednesday as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley and eastern
Great Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures and humidity will continue to trend
downward this weekend following the heat wave.

The heat wave is now behind us as the strong mid/upper level ridge
continues to flatten and drift off the southeast US coast this
weekend. It will still be quite muggy today with surface dewpoints
in the lower 70s, but clouds and showers will help to keep highs in
the low to mid 80s in most areas. The heat index will peak in the
mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will return to typical mid summer
values Sunday through early next week, with dewpoints also pulling
back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An east-west oriented frontal zone will remain draped across the
eastern Great Lakes today, bringing another day of showers and a few
thunderstorms to the region. The timing and placement of clusters of
more organized showers and thunderstorms is highly uncertain. In
general, expect scattered showers and isolated thunder through mid
to late morning, with coverage ramping up midday through the
afternoon before diminishing again early this evening. A few storms
may contain gusty winds, especially across the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes. VFR will prevail most of the time, but any of the
heavier showers and storms will produce brief/local MVFR to IFR
conditions.

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish this
evening, although a few scattered showers may continue overnight
especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Late tonight,
chances of low stratus and associated MVFR CIGS will increase south
of Lake Ontario as northeast flow develops behind the weak cold front
sagging south of the area. Patchy IFR may develop across the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...VFR/MVFR with occasional showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Greatest coverage of rain over the southern
half of the area. Brief/local IFR in thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms, mainly inland from the lakes.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds tonight through Saturday with minimal wave action.
Behind a weak frontal boundary winds will become northwesterly on
Lake Ontario tomorrow afternoon, and then as surface high pressure
builds southward Sunday winds will predominately become
northeasterly on both lakes. Winds to close out the holiday weekend
and into Monday will remain 15 knots or lower, leaving minimal waves
on the Lakes, though waves may reach 2 feet on the western waters of
Lake Ontario with a longer fetch to the northeast wind

Scattered thunderstorms are expected from midday through early
evening today, and again Saturday. Some storms may produce locally
stronger winds and higher waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock