Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

121
FXUS61 KBUF 111119
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
619 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There have been no significant changes to the forecast as of this
writing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds will continue through today and into this evening.

2) There will be an initial period of lake enhanced/lake effect
snow (primarily east of both lakes) today into the first half
of tonight. Winds gusting to 35 to 45 mph will also produce
areas of blowing and drifting snow.

3) A clipper low will enhance lake effect snow Monday and Monday
night, mainly east of Lake Ontario with additional modest
accumulations.

4) Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday night through
Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and mixed
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds will continue through today and into
this evening.

Through the course of today the primary surface low will deepen
slightly as it makes its way across Southern Quebec. In the process
it will swing a reinforcing secondary cold front across the region
this afternoon...before transferring its energy to the developing
coastal system off the Maine coast late today and this evening.

Following the initial (and main) surge of stronger surface wind
gusts overnight (which produced a nice swath of 40-45 knot gusts
from the Chautauqua county shoreline northeastward across the
Niagara Frontier and Rochester area)...we`re currently in a little
bit of a lull wind-wise as winds aloft have temporarily relaxed.
This being said...another uptick in the winds is still expected ENE
of Lake Erie this morning as the pressure gradient tightens again
and lapse rates increase out ahead of the approaching secondary cold
front. This should lead to another round of at least near-advisory
if not marginal advisory-type gusts within the current Wind Advisory
area...and as such felt it best to leave this up until its 1 PM
expiration time.

As we get into early portions of this afternoon...model guidance is
in good agreement on the axis of the strongest winds aloft pushing
southward across the southern Tier/interior of the Finger Lakes with
the secondary cold frontal passage...with 850 mb winds also climbing
into the 40-50 knot range in this latter area and then lingering
into early this evening. With ongoing cold air advection and the
resultant favorable low-level lapse rates...this should result in
fairly widespread gusts of 40-45 mph across the southern Tier/
interior Finger Lakes this afternoon and early this evening...with
some model profiles still suggesting the potential for at least a
few 50 mph gusts across the higher terrain. Confidence in the latter
occurring for a long enough period is not quite yet high enough to
warrant an additional Wind Advisory...but could see a need for one
to be issued on the day shift should confidence in such gusts
increase. Were this to become necessary...we would probably just
wind up needing a new Wind Advisory for Livingston/Ontario and
Allegany counties...and would be able to just wrap the wind gusts
into the existing Winter Weather Advisory further west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There will be an initial period of lake enhanced/
lake effect snow (primarily east of both lakes) today into the first
half of tonight. Winds gusting to 35 to 45 mph will also produce
areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Synoptic moisture wrapping in behind the primary surface low...
coupled with ongoing cold air advection...rising inversion heights
and low level convergence will generate a round of lake enhanced/
lake effect snow today and tonight. Initially bands of lake-enhanced
snow will develop ENE of the lakes this morning into midday...then
will become better organized as deeper wraparound synoptic moisture
and colder temperatures aloft arrive this afternoon and allow for
more of a true lake response...right as winds begin to veer more
westerly with the approaching secondary cold front. This will result
in the most organized snows from this event primarily affecting
areas east of the lakes...with continued veering of the low level
flow in the wake of the secondary front eventually sending these to
areas east-southeast of the lakes late this afternoon and this
evening. Building low-level ridging and associated drying/
subsidence/warming aloft will then result in the lake snows
weakening and devolving into some remnant snow showers from west to
east through the first half of tonight...before gradual backing of
the low-level flow starts sending the latter back northward again by
later on tonight.

Accums from this first round of lake effect snow still look to be on
the order of 3-6" across the higher terrain east of both lakes...
with winds of 35-45 mph also complicating things by producing areas
of blowing snow. With this in mind...Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect east of Lake Erie through the first half of
tonight...and through Monday night east of Lake Ontario when taking
into consideration the additional snowfall expected there Monday and
Monday night...more info on which follows immediately below.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A clipper low will enhance lake effect snow Monday
and Monday night, mainly east of Lake Ontario with additional modest
accumulations.

A shortwave trough will ripple across the Great Lakes, reaching the
eastern Great Lakes Monday. Warm air advection will be found ahead
of this shortwave, making poorer conditions for lake effect snow,
though this feature will bring back ample moisture supporting snow
growth. Temperatures at 850 hPa of -9 to -10C over Lake Ontario will
be just cold enough to allow for a band of lake enhanced snow, which
combined with upslope terrain east of Lake Ontario, will bring
additional snow accumulation on the Tug Hill and western Adirondack
foot hills. Lower terrain will remain with much less snow
accumulation.

East of Lake Erie temperatures at 850 hPa will be too warm for a
lake response with the -6 to -7C air at 850 hPa just cold enough
that a few lake enhanced snow showers, combined with general lift
ahead of the shortwave snow that a half to one inch of snow will
accumulate in spots.

One thing to watch for off both Lakes is within the warmer
environment the snow DGZ will be elevated, possibly above the layer
of low level moisture...which may allow for the weakening bands of
snow to taper off with a little freezing drizzle Monday evening and
overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday
night through Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and
mixed precipitation.

Ahead of a slightly deepening surface low, forecast models still
have a 45 to 55 knot LLJ Tuesday night over our region, with the jet
supporting warming in the lower atmosphere. While the 12Z GFS and
Euro ensembles have trended to a lower spread between the 25th and
75th quartile for surface pressure, they still exhibit a near 9 mb
difference as the low tracks from the northern Great Lakes and
across southern Canada...with a deeper surface low likely to produce
stronger wind gusts for our region Tuesday night into Wednesday.

As of now, NBM probabilities have a 40 to 50 percent chance for
southwest wind gusts to 30 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline and
across the metro Buffalo/Niagara Falls area Tuesday evening.

Driving this surface low will be a Pacific shortwave within the
northern branch of the jet. Overall, rainfall will be light to
modest, with lake enhanced and upslope terrain effects possibly
yielding up to a third of an inch of liquid before a change over
back to snow later Wednesday. Thus hydro concerns will remain low.

Light rain and higher terrain snow Tuesday night into Wednesday will
become all snow Wednesday evening following the passage of a strong
cold front. Models continue to have disagreement with the depth and
placement of a closed low within an upper level trough to our west
Thursday and into Friday. Greater certainty in the return to cold
air with good agreement that 850 hPa temperatures will drop 10 or so
degrees behind the cold front into Thursday, which could lead to
some lake snows on a northerly flow. Dry, arctic air will not
support any significant snow accumulation for the lake snows.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
In the wake of low pressure making its way across southern Ontario
and Quebec...gusty winds will continue today into this evening with
gusts in the 30-35 knot range in most places. This being said...a
few additional gusts to near 40 knots will still be possible in the
KDKK-KBUF/KIAG-KROC corridor through about 18z...and then across the
Southern Tier/interior Finger Lakes between 18z and 03z.

In terms of snow...a secondary cold front trailing from the low will
push across the region between late this morning and this
afternoon...and in the process will produce some general snow
showers and areas of IFR/MVFR visibility. Additionally...
progressively colder air and deeper wraparound moisture pushing
across the region will also allow for areas of lake effect/lake
enhanced snow and attendant LIFR/IFR to develop east of the
lakes through midday...with an initial shot of these likely
affecting the KBUF terminal in the 12z-14z time frame.

The lake snows will then shift to areas ESE of the lakes later today
and early this evening as winds veer a little more west-
northwesterly behind the secondary cold front. The lake snows will
then weaken and devolve into some remnant snow showers from west to
east tonight as high pressure and drier air/subsidence push across
the area...with the latter then starting to lift back northward
again later tonight as winds begin to back again.

Outlook...

Monday...Lingering lake enhanced snow showers east of the lakes with
localized IFR east of Lake Erie, and IFR/LIFR east of Lake Ontario.
Otherwise...VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, with some few rain and higher elevation wet
snow showers (with attendant MVFR/IFR) possible Tuesday night.

Wednesday...MVFR with a mix of rain and snow showers...with IFR
possible in any snow showers.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with localized lake effect snow showers possible
east-southeast of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Widespread southwesterly to westerly gales will continue across
Lakes Erie and Ontario today. Looking further out through the first
half of the week, elevated southwesterly to westerly flow looks to
continue, with at least advisory-level conditions persisting across
the Lower Lakes the majority of the time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ001>003-
     010>012-019-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-
     020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR/Thomas
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR