Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

450
FXUS61 KBUF 260714
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
214 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move from the southern Great Lakes to the Mid
Atlantic through tonight, bringing a variety of winter weather and
travel impacts to the region. A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain is expected across Western New York, with the greatest
amounts of ice accumulation across the western Southern Tier. Mainly
snow is expected east of the Genesee Valley with moderate
accumulations likely. Dry weather will return Saturday through
Sunday morning before more active weather returns late Sunday
through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A potent compact low will move east/southeast from the southern
Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic through tonight bringing a
round of mixed precipitation.

Light snow may develop as early as late morning across western
New York and the Genesee Valley/western Finger Lakes. The main
event will develop during the early to mid afternoon, with a
precipitation shield rapidly expanding and intensifying across
Western and Central New York. The mid level shortwave and
surface low are relatively weak, but the system will be moving
through a tight thermal gradient, supporting a northwest to
southeast band of strong low/mid level frontogenesis north of
the low track. Upper level divergence within a coupled jet
structure will further support a band of deep layer ascent
northeast of the surface low track. The overall synoptic and
thermodynamic setup appears favorable to support some embedded
mesoscale banding structures as well. The heaviest precipitation
and greatest impacts to travel will be from mid afternoon
through mid evening.

Precipitation type continues to be a challenge and quite uncertain
with this event. A band of snow positioned to the north of the low
where low/mid level frontogenesis is maximized will produce a
moderate to locally heavy snowfall from around the western Finger
Lakes eastward. Warning criteria snow will be possible under this
band, but this band will be quite narrow and forecasting where this
will set up is very difficult to forecast. To the west and south of
the snow band, the precipitation type will mostly freezing rain
and sleet, but snow is also possible. The area from the Niagara
Frontier into Livingston County is where uncertainty is greatest
in terms of precipitation type.

For snow accumulations, expect 4-8" from the Rochester area eastward
to Oswego County and down into the Finger Lakes, with 2-5" for
Jefferson and Lewis counties (greatest in the southern portion of
those counties). Less snow expected for the western Southern Tier
with much more freezing rain and sleet expected. From the Niagara
Frontier to Livingston County, snow amounts are highly uncertain
given precipitation type uncertainties. Current thinking is 1-3"
with sleet holding down snow amounts. If precipitation stays mainly
snow, accumulations could be quite a bit higher.

For ice accumulations, expect 0.10" to 0.25" across the western
Southern Tier, but portions of Chautauqua County may reach the 0.25"
to 0.50" range if freezing rain is predominant. There is a
potential Chautauqua County may exceed 0.50" and reach Ice Storm
Warning criteria, but confidence in that is low.

The snow and mixed precipitation will quickly taper off from west to
east tonight, with most of the precipitation done by late evening
across Western New York, and before daybreak Saturday east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Seasonably cold but quiet weather expected through Saturday night as
high pressure ridging crests over and east of the region. Lows will
likely dip well into the single digits east of Lake Ontario with a
colder airmass over the region and clearing skies early in the night.

Active weather makes a return later Sunday as a phasing jet pattern
carves out a sharpening longwave trough over the Plains. This will
cause a deepening sfc low to track northeast across the Great Lakes
region through Sunday night, with deep isentropic lift across the
forecast area. For most areas this system will bring plain rain,
though with a couple of potential exceptions. The first will be at
precip onset across WNY Sunday afternoon as there remains a marginal
overrunning setup with cold low-level SE flow in place. The NBM
suggests freezing rain is the dominant ptype at first, though model
soundings indicate a very dry warm layer aloft with mid/upper level
saturation above it. This could lead to dynamic cooling of the
column which may promote more of brief rain/snow or wintry mix setup
before warming changes everything over to rain. Have left the NBM`s
FZRA where it looks most probable around the Southern Tier, while
depreciating it further north.

Precip will likely not reach the North Country until Sunday evening,
though this is where the near-sfc freezing layer will likely be more
stubborn as colder air drains down the St. Lawrence Valley. While
not an ideal setup, freezing rain chances are much higher and
persist for longer compared to WNY with ice accumulation possible
across the Tug/Western Dacks and north of Watertown. Confidence is
lower further south with the same aforementioned concerns with dynamic
cooling. All locations should also change over to plain rain later
Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Regardless of ptype, this system will draw an impressive plume of
Gulf-based moisture northward with modeled PWATs >1", which would be
near the daily max for 12/28. There remains a fair bit of spread in
ensemble QPF amounts, though conservative estimates of 0.5" to 1.0"
across WNY combined with snowmelt may result in rises to action
stage on several Buffalo area creeks. The latest NAEFS/GEFS even
advertise about a 10% chance of minor flood stage across many of
these waterways.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast remains on track for a prolonged period of active weather
next week. This comes as a deep closed low over the central Great
Lakes Monday morning moves east to northern New England through
Tuesday, which will be quickly followed by a shortwave clipper and
then another 500mb closed low dropping across Ontario Province later
in the week.

The initial system`s passage will drive a strong arctic cold front
through the forecast area Monday, causing 850mb temps to drop from
near +9C to the negative teens in just 12-24 hours. A ~45-55kt LLJ
within this deep CAA regime will cause winds to sharply ramp up as
early as Monday morning, with sfc gusts likely exceeding 40mph
downwind of the lakes at times into Monday night. Once the dry slot
moves through by Monday evening, oscillating bands of lake effect
snow will also develop off both lakes. Long range ensembles continue
to suggest an initial WSW steering flow which quickly becomes
northwesterly Monday night through Tuesday, though confidence in
flow direction is sharply reduced thereafter. Winds will subside as
the NW shift occurs, though remain blustery through at least Tuesday
as a 40-50kt LLJ remains overhead.

Reinforcing synoptic moisture on the backside of the first closed
low looks to be plentiful, with the following systems bringing
additional forcing/moisture to support lake effect snow all the way
through New Year`s Day, and periodic snows outside the main lake
effect areas. This may result in significant accumulations east
and/or southeast of the lakes. Significant blowing and drifting
snow is also likely in the main lake effect areas, especially
early on in the event when winds are strongest.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry weather and mainly VFR CIGS are through this morning. The one
exception will be across the Finger Lakes region and lower Genesee
Valley where a period of localized lake induced MVFR CIGS will be
possible under a northeast flow through about 12z.

Low pressure will cross the southern Great Lakes and upper Ohio
Valley through tonight, bringing a wintry mix of precipitation.
Some light snow may develop as early as mid to late morning across
western New York and the Genesee Valley/western Finger Lakes.

The main event will develop during the early to mid afternoon
Friday, with a precipitation shield rapidly expanding and
intensifying across Western and Central NY. Expect snow to be the
dominant precipitation type from KROC-KPEO eastward, with freezing
rain and sleet dominant across the western Southern Tier near KJHW.
Between these two areas, precipitation type is highly uncertain from
the Niagara Frontier (KBUF-KIAG) to near KDSV. The most likely
scenario is for snow and sleet to dominate, with the sleet holding
down snow accumulations but bringing its own impacts to aviation
operations. There is some potential for a little freezing rain in
this area as well, but most forecast soundings suggest sleet will be
the main non-snow precipitation type. The area that will see the
best chance for impactful FZRA will be across the western Southern
Tier (including KJHW), where significant icing is possible.

Expect widespread MVFR CIGS and IFR VSBY Friday afternoon and
evening. There may be some heavier banding of snow from near KROC
and the Finger Lakes to Central NY, where VSBY may drop to near
approach minimums at times.

Outlook...

Saturday...Areas of MVFR CIGS in low stratus early, improving to
VFR.

Sunday...VFR in the morning, deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain
developing from southwest to northeast. Freezing rain possible
across the North Country.

Monday...MVFR/IFR. Rain changing to snow early from west to east.
Localized heavier lake effect snow developing east of the lakes late.

Tuesday...Areas of MVFR with scattered snow showers. Localized
heavier lake effect snow and IFR possible east/southeast of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate northeast winds early this morning before turning easterly
and increasing on Lake Ontario through this evening as low pressure
moves across the upper Ohio Valley and tightens the pressure
gradient.

Winds and waves will start to diminish by Saturday morning.

A strong cold front will cross the lower great Lakes Sunday night
into Monday. Westerly gales are likely with possible storm force
gusts Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ001-002-010>013-019>021-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ003>006-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA