Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

547
FXUS61 KBUF 101715
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
115 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon
toward the western Southern Tier, with potential for isolated gusty
winds and heavy rainfall.

2)Dry weather through the weekend and then the heat potentially
returns briefly early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible this
afternoon toward the western Southern Tier, with potential for
isolated gusty winds and heavy rainfall.


The cold front will ever so slowly push south of the region but
before it does so, there will be a short window for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon (1PM to 6 PM) during peak heating
hours. Severe parameters are by no means ideal again this afternoon,
with the better shear profiles north (stable side) of the cold front
and the better instability/deeper moisture south of the NY/PA line.
However, with 25-30 knots of deep layer shear ahead of the front
combined with diurnal heating providing a moderately unstable
environment, an isolated stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out
inland of lake breeze circulations across this area, best chance
inland areas of the Southern Tier as the front will clear south of
this area into PA last.

PWATs today are lower than yesterday filter into the region,
generally 1.25-1.5 inches ahead of the boundary. Thus, even though
brief heavy rainfall will be possible with any storm, would likely
need training storms to cause any sort of isolated flash flooding
concern. Storm movement will also be somewhat progressive, further
limiting the flash flood threat in that respect as well.

Showers and storms will quickly taper off with loss of heating, and
as the cold front finally pushes south of the region. Tonight,
valley fog formation will be possible across the southern Tier.

Key Message 2...Dry weather through the weekend and then the heat
potentially returns briefly early next week.

Surface based ridging will settle in across the region over the
weekend into early next week with continued dry weather.

Meanwhile...an impressive 590-600dam ridge anchored over the
Inter- mountain West will expand north and northeast across the
upper Midwest early next week. Guidance continues to suggest
H850 T`s will quickly but briefly push up Tuesday into the low
20s (21C-24C). This should easily support Max T`s in the upper
80s to low 90s and heat index values in the mid-upper 90s,
especially across the lake plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFs a weak frontal boundary will continue to slip
southward across our region, with the potential for a shower or
thunderstorm across the southern two-tiers of counties. This would
impact the KJHW airfield through 21Z.

Otherwise a broad area of surface high pressure over Canada will
push a drying airmass southward, eroding the in place MVFR ceiling
heights from the north through the evening hours.

Lingering moisture across the Southern Tier will likely bring
expanding valley fog tonight. The 10-12 knot flow through 1K feet at
KJHW may mix enough drier air over the airfield to prevent this fog
from expanding up from the valley and across KJHW, and will have a
VCFG in the TAF to cover fog nearby through 13Z.

Surface high pressure will then bring mainly VFR flight conditions
with a light north to northeast wind through the remainder of the
TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Saturday evening through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE flow behind the front will produce some light chop, 1-2 foot
waves on Lake Ontario through Saturday. Otherwise...mainly light to
gentle breezes and negligible waves are expected through this
weekend and into early next week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...AR