Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

572
FXUS61 KBUF 202115
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
415 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Winter Storm Warning for Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties has
been cancelled, with the lake effect snow band having lifted north
of that area.

Winter Storm Warning east of Lake Ontario has been extended through
Friday evening, to account for widespread light snow Wednesday and
Wednesday evening, then another round of lake effect snows through
Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake snows to move north and then weaken in the process
through tonight.

2) Widespread light snow and gusty winds Wednesday, then turning
colder with potential accumulating lake effect snow.

3) Additional lake effect snow and gusty winds expected Thursday and
Friday.

4) Bitterly cold airmass to settle over the Eastern Great Lakes
later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Lake snows to move north and then weaken in the
process this evening and tonight.

Winds will continue to back to the southwest and then south through
tonight in response to an approaching trough nearing the region.

Off Lake Erie...this has already resulted in the Lake Erie lake band
lifting north of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, where the
Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled. The band will continue to
lift north to the Buffalo Metro area through early this evening. As
it moves north...we may even see a brief uptick in intensity before
it weakens and then dissipates tonight as moisture depletes and
equilibrium levels fall below 4K. Before the band dissipates...we
could see a few inches (2-5", w/isolated higher amounts) with the
northward jog across the Southtowns and Buffalo Metro area.

Off Lake Ontario...a similar scenario will eventually take place but
will take a better portion of this evening before it pushes across
Watertown metro area, and then eventually into the Saint Lawrence
Valley while slowly weakening. That said...before that occurs we
area looking at significant additional accumulations east of Lake
Ontario, especially across the Tug Hill and northwest Oswego County
and western Lewis Co.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread accumulating snows and gusty winds
Wednesday, then turning colder with potential for lake effect snow.

A compact but potent shortwave will near and the pass quickly
through the Lower Lakes on Wednesday, bring with it the potential
for some accumulating snows. As it stands right now...we are looking
at 2-4" across the S. Tier/Niagara frontier (Advisory levels) and 3-
6" possible east of Lake Ontario (Tug Hill), and then LES takes over
on Thursday. Also...a strong LLJ (+60 knots) will plow into the
region within the warm-sector but a decent inversion and overall
poor mixing will `likely` limit the stronger winds aloft from
reaching the surface. That said...we may still could see some gusts
up to 40 to 45 mph ahead of the cold front. With the arrival/passage
of the cold front late Wednesday afternoon/evening, a colder airmass
will begin to pour into the region. Also...winds will continue to
remain gusty, and then the Arctic front nears the region, with the
potential for a squall line crossing the region.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Additional lake effect snow and gusty winds expected
Thursday and Friday.

Low pressure over Quebec will swing another arctic cold front across
our region Thursday morning...with the coldest airmass of the winter
to date then flooding across our region in its wake through the
first half of the upcoming weekend. This will set the stage for
another round of lake effect snows Thursday into Friday...with these
focusing east-northeast and east of the lakes on a general west-
southwesterly to westerly low level flow.

With this next lake effect event...the better environment by far
appears to be over Lake Ontario...where substantially deeper
moisture and a fetch parallel/nearly parallel to the long axis of
the lake will be in place...and where convergence into the expected
band will be further augmented by a lake-aggregate thermally-
enhanced surface trough Thursday night into Friday. Setup appears
sufficient for another round of significant accumulations from
near/just south of the Watertown area to the Tug Hill...with the
band then drifting southward across the south shore of the lake and
giving way to weaker multibanded lake snows later Friday and Friday
evening as winds veer following the trough passage. Taking this into
consideration in tandem with the ongoing first round of lake effect
snow and the potential for an advisory-type synoptic snowfall later
Wednesday into Wednesday night...for the sake of simplicity we have
elected to just extend the existing Winter Storm Warning for the
eastern Lake Ontario Region out through 00z Saturday.

In comparison...the environment over Lake Erie appears to feature
much shallower moisture...with a bit more in the way of undulations
in the low-level flow which will have a tendency to move the lake
snows around somewhat more compared to those off Lake Ontario.
Coupling this with increasing ice coverage...confidence in
significant accumulations from the Lake Erie lake effect remains
substantially lower...with more of an advisory-type event appearing
more likely at this point for later on in the week. Given this and
the still-ongoing Winter Storm Warnings across far western New
York...have elected to hold off on any additional snow-related
headlines for this area for the time being.

In addition to the lake snows...the cold air advection regime in the
wake of the cold front will combine with a relatively tight pressure
gradient and a 925-850 mb layer flow of 35-45 knots to produce gusty
winds throughout much of this period...with the strongest winds/
gusts most likely during the daytime periods of both Thursday and
Friday. Still some uncertainty in the exact magnitude and timing of
the periods of stronger flow aloft...but feel that at a minimum we
should see gusts of 30-40 mph being fairly commonplace both days.
The strongest winds will be in the typical areas downwind of the
lakes...where gusts to 45-50 mph (marginal low-end advisory
criteria) may be a possibility at points.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Bitterly cold airmass to settle over the Eastern
Great Lakes later this week.

An anomalously strong deep-layer ridge off the west coast of North
America (+PNA pattern) will extend northward across Alaska and
towards the arctic circle...allowing for polar air to slide
southward across Canada, with the cold air supporting a strong +2 to
+3 SD 1050 mb surface high pressure over the northern Plains Friday.
This pattern will result in 850 mb temperatures falling to around
-25C across our region Friday night through Saturday. We can
consequently expect a bitterly cold end to the week with highs
largely in the single digits both Friday and Saturday...and
overnight lows around/slightly below zero both Friday and Saturday
nights south of Lake Ontario...and possibly to as low as the
negative 20s across the North Country. Coupled with forecast
winds...this will result in the likelihood of at least widespread
Cold Weather Advisories for the end of the week/first half of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Heavy lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario this afternoon. VSBY will be near zero at times within the
heaviest lake effect snow bands. Outside of the lake effect snows
terminals will mainly see VFR conditions this afternoon.

Off Lake Erie...the lake effect snow band will begin to lift north
this evening across KBUF-KIAG with conditions deteriorating to IFR
to LIFR.

Off Lake Ontario...lake snows will large remain south of the
airfield this evening until tonight.

The bands off both lakes will lift north of the airfields tonight,
with slow but a brief improvement as the bands weaken and then
dissipate.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Widespread light snow overspreads the area. IFR or below
at times.

Thursday...Lake effect snow east and northeast of the lakes with
IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR/brief IFR outside of lake effect areas
within snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...MVFR with areas of IFR. Chance of snow
showers, especially east and southeast of the lakes in lake effect
snow showers.

Sunday...MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Heavy Freezing Spray will continue to be a concern as the winds
remain close to 30 knots through this evening. A heavy freezing
spray warning remains for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario for rapid
ice accretion on vessels.

Southwest to south winds ramp back up to 20-30 knots behind a warm
front Wednesday and Wednesday night, with winds shifting more
westerly by Thursday behind a cold front. Westerly winds will remain
elevated into Friday as another round of arctic air spreads into the
region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ010-011.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ012-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 PM EST this evening
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/JJR/Thomas
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR