Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

832
FXUS61 KBUF 271830
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
230 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Wind advisory issued for the southern two tiers of counties from 11
pm tonight through 11 am Tuesday.

SPS issued for Lewis County for near critical fire weather
conditions Tuesday for the Adirondack zone.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Gusty southeast winds develop tonight.

2) Unsettled Tuesday - Wednesday night creating stream and creek
rises and low lying ponding of water.

3) Cool for the end of the week and into the weekend with prospects
for frost as well as a few snowflakes for the higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...


KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty southeast winds develop tonight.

Behind a departing area of high pressure, and deepening surface low
over Lake Superior, a strengthening 50 to 55 knot LLJ will develop
tonight, with a base around 2K feet. This jet, within a tightening
surface pressure gradient will promote hill top gusty winds as well
as southeast downslope winds to accelerate to the lee of our higher
terrain.

Gusts could reach 50 mph, not only in the traditional downslope
Chautauqua Ridge to the Lake Erie shoreline for Chautauqua County
and far southern Erie County...but also across higher terrain of the
inland Southern Tier, hills of Wyoming County and towards the
Bristol Hills.

Will issue a wind advisory starting 11 pm tonight and run it through
11 am Tuesday...with the strongest wind gusts likely the second half
of tonight and before the showers begin Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled Tuesday - Wednesday creating small stream
and creek rises and low lying ponding of water.

A cold front will pass across our region Tuesday, this from the
deepening surface low over Lake Superior and central Ontario Canada.
Moisture advancing northward along this front from the Gulf will
fuel showers along the front. The axis of deep instability will
likely remain over the Ohio Valley tomorrow, but we could see enough
MUCAPE of just a few hundred J/KG sneak into our region to generate
a few rumbles of thunder.

Though basin average rain is likely to remain a quarter of an inch
or less with this activity, the convective nature of this
precipitation could allow for localized higher amounts of rain.

Behind this front there will likely be a period of fair weather,
through much of Tuesday afternoon and early evening...with little to
no rainfall.

A second surface low will advance from the Ohio Valley and to the
mid-Atlantic region Wednesday. There will be a bit more of a
southeast flow in the mid levels with this system...taping into both
Gulf and Atlantic moisture. This will bring Pwats upwards towards an
inch, and with a greater duration of lift from warm conveyor belt
properties and right entrance region of an upper level jet,
precipitation Wednesday and Wednesday night will likely be greater
than Tuesday, with basin rainfall amounts averaging between 1.0 and
1.5 inches.

This rain may push (or climb higher up the list) all three of our
climate sites (Buffalo, Rochester, Watertown) into a top 10 wettest
Aprils on record as well as nearing or even surpassing the wettest
March-April combo on record.

This rain onto the already saturated soils will give rise to near
bankfull for small streams and creeks as well as create more ponding
of water in poor drainage and low lying spots. The river center does
highlight a few of our larger creeks and rivers rising to action
stage, highlighting the Niagara Frontier and Genesee Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cool for the end of the week and into the weekend
with prospects for frost as well as a few snowflakes for the higher
terrain.

Following the mid week system an upper level low that resided near
James Bay to begin the week will rotate southeastward over our
region. A much cooler airmass will accompany the low, with 850 hPa
temperatures dropping towards -6C by the weekend...which lies within
the bottom 10 percent of values measured by the Buffalo sounding
climatology.

Temperatures will only manage to peak into the upper 40s and lower
50s, which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal, Thursday through
Sunday...and if any clearing develops at night there will be
potential for frost and or freezing conditions. For all counties
outside of Cattaraugus, Allegany, Jefferson and Lewis...the frost-
freeze program begins on May 1st.

Additionally, though not much precipitation is expected with this
bout of cold air...it will become cold enough aloft to support a few
snow showers, especially for the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue across the region through
tonight. Ceilings will lower to 3-5k as rain showers cross western
NY Tuesday morning. Showers may produce a brief period of MVFR/IFR
across western NY during this time. Flight conditions will lower to
MVFR across far western NY by late morning with low-end VFR
conditions continuing east of the Genesee Valley through the
afternoon.

South to southeast winds will increase across region tonight through
Tuesday morning, then taper off Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds are
expected with the strongest gusts along the Lake Erie shoreline
including KDKK and across the hilltops of the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes. There could be a brief period of LLWS late
tonight/early Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...IFR/MVFR with scattered rain showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR, with an isolated rain or overnight
wet snow shower.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southeast winds will freshen on the Lakes tonight, with the
highest waves well offshore. Small Craft conditions will begin on
Lake Erie this evening, and likely begin across the eastern end of
Lake Ontario late tonight. Winds will weaken Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday night.

An area of low pressure will move from the Tennessee Valley to the
Northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. North to northwest
winds will increase behind this system and another round of small
craft conditions are possible through much of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The combination of dry fine fuels, south to southeast wind gusts
up to 30 to 35 mph, and relative humidity values as low as 25 to
35 percent will contribute to an elevated risk of fire spread
tomorrow for Lewis County. This concern will remain through the
late afternoon hours of Tuesday, at which time rising RH values
as well as diminishing wind gusts and the increasing potential
for rain showers will end the near critical fire weather
condition. After this, widespread rain Wednesday and much cooler
conditions through the end of the week will keep fire weather
concerns low.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK
FIRE WEATHER...Thomas