Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

361
FXUS61 KBUF 291056
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
656 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to note besides decreasing PoP`s across the Niagara
Frontier and Western Southern Tier through Thursday based on
latest trends in obs and NWP model guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms with localized
heavy rainfall are expected through tonight.

2) Increasingly drier conditions return for the end of the work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms with
localized heavy rainfall are expected through tonight.

Aloft, cyclonic and mainly NE`erly to N`erly flow is expected to
impact Western and Central NY through tonight as a mid/upper-
level low wobbles SE`ward from Lake Ontario to near Long Island.
Simultaneously and at the surface, a trough lingers over most
of our CWA as the primary surface low wobbles NE`ward from NJ to
near Long Island and becomes vertically-stacked with the
aforementioned low aloft. However, a ridge accompanied by
stabilizing subsidence will build slowly into WNY from the
western Great Lakes through tonight. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially roughly along
and east of the Genesee River and during this afternoon through
early evening, as the fairly-moist boundary layer undergoes
weak to moderate destabilization via daytime heating. Showers
and storms will be triggered by the following: low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the surface trough axis extending
from the aforementioned low into eastern portions of our CWA
and along surface trough axes that will accompany subtle
shortwave disturbances embedded in the cyclonic flow aloft;
moist isentropic ascent releasing weak elevated CAPE in the
weakening warm conveyor belt of the low pressure system. Periods
of steady to heavy rain are expected as the warm conveyor belt
taps into abundant moisture originating over the Gulf and
southern Gulf Stream. A very marginal risk of localized flash
flooding exists through daybreak Thursday in the Eastern Lake
Ontario Region, especially Lewis County.

Weak low-level CAA persists through tonight as Western and
Central NY remain along the northwestern flank of the
aforementioned surface low. Overnight lows in the 50`s or 60`s
are expected around daybreak this morning and Thursday morning,
respectively. High temperatures should reach the mid 60`s to
upper 70`s late this afternoon. The coolest highs are expected
in the higher terrain of the Western Southern Tier, Wyoming
County, the Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

Key Message 2...Increasingly drier conditions return for the end of
the work week.

On Thursday through Friday, the low pressure system at the
surface and aloft will exit generally NE`ward toward the
Canadian Maritimes. Simultaneously, the aforementioned surface
ridge and the portion of the ridge aloft will continue to build
from the western Great Lakes and vicinity so that by late
Friday, the surface ridge axis should become located near Long
Island and Lake Champlain. While lingering low-level moisture,
renewed diurnal heating, and weak boundary layer destabilization
may support self-destructive sunshine in the form of isolated
to scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm development
roughly along and east of the Genesee River Valley on Thursday,
stabilizing subsidence accompanying the building ridge will
yield fair weather CWA-wide late Thursday evening through
Friday. Given the projected weather pattern evolution at the
surface and aloft, weak low-level CAA through Thursday night is
expected to transition to weak low-level WAA on the synoptic
scale by Friday.

Late afternoon highs on Thursday should reach the 70`s to 80F.
Considerable clearing of sky, lower humidity at/near the
surface, and weak surface winds should permit efficient
radiational cooling and allow lows to reach mainly the 50`s to
lower 60`s around daybreak Friday. River valley steam fog is
expected around daybreak in the Western Southern Tier, Finger
Lakes, and the Saint Lawrence and Black River Valleys. With the
departure of the low aloft and its associated cool pool, high
temperatures should recover to seasonable levels (upper 70`s to
lower 80`s) areawide by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface low over far eastern New York this morning, will continue to
support MVFR wrap-around cloud cover and embedded a few widely
scattered showers across the Genesee Valley eastward from lingering
moisture and northerly upslope flow. These conditions will continue
through much of today, especially for areas east of the Genesee
Valley. Dry air from near by high pressure will begin to advect in
today, which will support some clearing and improve conditions to
VFR for far western New York, though an isolated shower will be
possible.

With the low slow to budge east, similar conditions from today will
persist tonight. CIGS will be slow to improve, but will eventually
become VFR across Western NY, while MVFR and higher terrain IFR
linger from the Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region.

Outlook...

Thursday...Areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS in the morning, improving to VFR
in the afternoon. Scattered showers, mainly across the Finger Lakes
and east of Lake Ontario.

Friday through Saturday...VFR.

Sunday...MVFR/VFR. Showers likely with a chance of a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions have improved on eastern Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. The Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft Advisories
have been cancelled based on trends in observations and forecast
model guidance. A trough lingers over Lake Ontario and vicinity
through tonight as a high pressure ridge builds slowly from the
western Great Lakes. NW`erly to N`erly winds around 5 to 15
knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected in NY waters of
Lakes Erie and Ontario.

The ridge should build E`ward in earnest on Thursday through
Thursday night as the trough exits toward New England and the
Canadian Maritimes. Winds should become variable and ease to 10
knots or less and waves should subside to 2 feet or less by
Thursday night. The ridge should exit slowly E`ward on Friday
through Saturday night as winds remain variable around 5 to 10
knots and waves remain 2 feet or less. Note: winds should trend
onshore during the late morning through early evening hours of
Friday due to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario lake breeze development.

On Sunday, a cold front and accompanying inverted trough should
sweep E`ward across Lakes Erie and Ontario, and cause primarily
SE`erly winds around 5 to 10 knots to shift to mainly NE`erly.
Waves are expected to remain 2 feet or less.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/Jaszka/JJR
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...Jaszka