Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

155
FXUS61 KBUF 011040
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
640 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather is expected to return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather is expected to return this
weekend.

An omega pattern to the jet stream this week, with our region
situated within the favorable sector, will break down by the end of
the week as a deep closed low over the PACNW bears down upon our
region in a weaker state.

Day to day warming through the week, combined with a southerly moist
flow late in the week, will lend to building instability by the
weekend. This, combined with lift ahead of the shortwave trough will
increase confidence for showers and thunderstorms, especially during
the peak heating of the day for the weekend.

Given this precipitation is fashioned more for convection than
stratiform, there is still expected to be plenty of dry time through
the weekend days. Latest ensemble guidance still displays a slight
chance for storm activity Friday, with next Saturday and Sunday the
greater odds for convection development.

Forecasted PWATS are expected to reach 1.5 inches or so, which would
allow for downpours of rain within any stronger thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found and these
conditions are expected to continue through the TAF cycle.

Surface high pressure will bring light northerly winds, though lake
breeze circulations could bring a light gust up to 20 knots at
KIAG and KROC off Lake Ontario this afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will settle across the eastern Great Lakes region
through mid-week with light winds and gentle waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas