Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

149
FXUS61 KBUF 280615
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
215 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One last day of comfortable temperatures and humidity today.

2) Dangerous heat and humidity expected much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...One last day of comfortable temperatures and
humidity today.

After some patchy fog to start the day across portions of the
area...surface high pressure ridged across eastern Ontario and
western Quebec will provide us with mainly dry weather and one last
day of comfortable temperatures and humidity levels today...though
continued day-to-day warming of our airmass will result in slightly
warmer highs in the lower 80s across much of the lower elevations...
and in the upper 70s across our higher terrain/near the lakeshores.
The one possible exception to the dry conditions will be across the
Southern Tier...where the combination of diurnal heating and
lingering low level moisture may support a couple additional widely
scattered pop-up showers/storms from mid afternoon into early this
evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous heat and humidity expected much of next
week.

Guidance remains consistent/in good agreement with strong upper-
level ridging developing across the eastern CONUS during the Tuesday-
Thursday time frame...before slowly flattening and getting
suppressed west-southwestward sometime between Friday and next
weekend in response to shortwave energy digging southeastward across
eastern Canada. Under this regime...850 mb temps will climb to
around +20C by Tuesday afternoon...then will remain around or even a
little above +20C through at least Thursday and possibly even
Friday...before pulling back into the mid to upper teens next
weekend.

At the surface...this will initially translate into highs climbing
into the mid and upper 80s Monday...though that`s also about how
warm it will actually feel with dewpoints remaining in the tolerable
upper 50s to lower 60s. Heat and humidity will then build Tuesday
and especially Wednesday and Thursday...when daytime highs away from
lake influences/the higher terrain will surge into the lower to mid
90s for many areas...with a few of our normal hot spots possibly
even reaching the upper 90s. At the same time dewpoints will climb
into the lower 70s...supporting oppressive heat indices in at least
the upper 90s to lower 100s for much of our lower elevations each
afternoon...with some locations possibly even seeing these reach
heat warning criteria (105F) Wednesday/Thursday. Very warm and muggy
nights will also offer little relief from the heat for those without
air conditioning...and will increase the likelihood of heat-related
illness for vulnerable populations.

While much of this time period will likely be dry...some showers and
thunderstorms will be possible in association with a passing warm
front later Monday night and Tuesday...and again Friday into the
holiday weekend as the ridge slowly flattens and we once again
become more subject to disturbances rippling along its northern
periphery.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Partly cloudy/mainly clear skies...light winds...and lingering low
level moisture should support the development of at least some
patchy MVFR/IFR fog across the Southern Tier...portions of the
Finger Lakes...and areas east of Lake Ontario early this morning.
Within the valleys of the Southern Tier...visibilities may be
reduced to LIFR at times through sunrise.

After sunrise...renewed diurnal heating/mixing will result in the
dissipation of the fog...with widespread VFR conditions then
expected to prevail through the rest of the day/Sunday evening. As
we push deeper through Sunday night...some valley fog may redevelop
across the Southern Tier...while general VFR conditions persist
elsewhere.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Monday night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to modest winds and minimal wave action are expected through
Monday with a weak pressure gradient persisting across the lower
Great Lakes. Following the passage of a warm front...southwest winds
will then increase Tuesday into the 10-15 knot range, with similar
winds then expected each day through the end of the week. This will
produce choppy conditions at times on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario,
but winds and waves will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria.

The warm frontal passage may also bring the potential for at least a
few showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday...some of
which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...Hitchcock/JJR