Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

947
FXUS61 KBUF 241717
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
117 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet weather returns tonight through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet weather returns tonight through Saturday.

A surface low over the upper peninsula of Michigan will slide
southeast across central Michigan tonight before passing by on the
far southwest edge of New York into the mid-Atlantic region by
Saturday. Meanwhile, a warm front draped across central Michigan is
supporting a few showers to bubble up along its boundary, which are
contributing to the swath of upper level clouds across Western New
York towards the Genesee Valley. While rumbles of thunder can`t be
ruled out this afternoon and evening, severe thunderstorms aren`t
expected as mid-level lapse rates are marginal, with instability
being elevated and limited to marginal shear.

A shortwave trough passage tonight, will support the aforementioned
surface low to slide southeast tonight and Saturday, increasing
moisture, and forcing across far Western New York. Overall, expect
showers and embedded thunderstorms to track southeast across western
New York. A plume of precipitable water values of an inch to an inch
and a quarter will slide across the area, and thus will result in
showers to be heavy at times. The best corridor for efficient
rainfall will lie south of the New York State Thruway from Buffalo
to eastern Allegany County. Rainfall amounts across WNY will range
from a half inch across the far southwestern Chautauqua County to
around an inch to an inch and a half across the corridor from
Buffalo to the Genesee Valley, to up to a tenth of an inch across
the eastern Lake Ontario region.

Within the corridor from Buffalo to Alfred, where the heavier
precipitation will lie, area creeks and streams may see some rises
as well as some local ponding in poor drainage areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Hi-Res guidance suggests the potential for a few showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, along a NW-SE oriented boundary across
western New York. The placement of the boundary suggests that if any
convection does occur, it will be within a corridor from KIAG-KBUF-
KELZ.

A wave of low pressure will move along the stationary boundary with
conditions deteriorating to IFR/MVFR in rain showers for terminals
south of Lake Ontario. LIFR is possible across the higher terrain.
It will remain VFR across the North Country (KART) with mid level
CIGs possible.

IFR/MVFR will continue south of Lake Ontario Saturday in rain
showers. CIGs may lower at KART, but chances for any restrictions
look to be less than 30 percent.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with scattered rain
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Breezy northeast winds are in place across the lakes this afternoon
as a tightening pressure gradient is overhead between exiting high
pressure and surface low pressure passing southeast across the Upper
peninsula of Michigan. Winds will continue to increase this evening
through Saturday, supporting small craft conditions.

Weak high pressure will build across the lakes Sunday, supporting
winds to diminish back down to below small craft criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...EAJ