Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

370
FXUS61 KBUF 181715
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
115 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The overall severe weather risk for this afternoon and evening has
decreased.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorm develop this afternoon and evening. A
low end severe and flooding risk.

2) Below average temperatures return late in the weekend, however
more seasonal temperatures will arrive by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorm develop this afternoon and
evening. A low end severe and flooding risk.

A narrow ribbon of moisture (PWATs of 1.25-1.5") will surge into
the region ahead of an inbound cold front late this afternoon and
evening. This will lead to a round of showers and embedded
thunderstorms. Lastest SPC Day 1 Outlook continues with a Slight
Risk area covering most of WNY south of I-90. Instability in place
ahead of the cold front will be very limited, but favorable shear
profiles and dry air in mid and lower levels could bring stronger
winds down to the surface with evaporative cooling with some
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts. While hydro concerns
remain low at this time, locally heavy rainfall is possible. Main
concerns stem from sensitive antecedent conditons in areas of more
complex terrain, such as in the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and
perhaps the Tug Hill region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures return late in the
weekend, however more seasonal temperatures will arrive by Tuesday.

A pattern change is expected late this weekend as a deep upper level
trough moves across the Great Lakes region and the Northeast. A
return to well below normal temperatures and the chance for snow
showers will begin this Sunday.

A west-northwest flow is expected across the region Sunday. Cold air
advection and daytime heating will strengthen low-level lapse rates
through the day. An increase in PVA and large scale ascent will move
across the region. A mix of rain and snow showers is expected to
develop across western NY with a focus of showers along a
convergence zone from the Buffalo Metro to the Finger Lakes region.
Showers are also possible across the Saint Lawrence Valley through
Sunday afternoon. A secondary cold front is expected to move through
the region Sunday night with 850mb temperatures falling to -12C
Monday. Snow showers are possible at times Sunday night through
Monday. Little to no accumulation is expected.

A strong upper level ridge will build into the Plains and Mid-West
through mid-week before moving into the Great Lakes region late in
the week. Day-to-day warming is expected across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS, active weather with dry and breezy conditions
yielding to showers and thunderstorms as a strong cold front pushes
eastward across the region. Flight conditions will briefly lower to
IFR to MVFR, especially visibilities, within heavier shower and
storm activity as the front passes through the TAF region later this
afternoon and early evening. Any thunderstorm will produce locally
brief period of stronger wind gusts.

A more prolonged period of IFR and MVFR post cold front this evening
and thorugh the overnight time period along with scattered rain
showers mixing with and changing to snow.

Winds behind the cold front will veer to northwesterly tonight and
into Sunday...with daytime increased mixing heights promoting gusts
into the low to mid 20 knot range by late morning.

Outlook...

Sunday night...A mix of MVFR/IFR with upslope/lake effect rain
showers mixing with and changing to snow showers.

Monday...Improvement to VFR with leftover scattered lake
effect/upslope snow showers ending.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will continue at 15-20 knots this afternoon with the
more significant wave action directed into Canadian waters. A cold
front will approach the region this afternoon, showers and embedded
thunderstorms will overspread the waters from west to east. Some of
these thunderstorms may produce brief high wind gusts and wave
action. Special Marine Warnings may need to be issued.

Winds will shift westerly and diminish some behind the front this
evening. Elevated winds will continue with higher wave heights
turning more onshore, before winds subside to 10 knots or less late.

Cold air deepening across the lakes and an increasing pressure
gradient will cause westerly winds to freshen Sunday. Winds will
turn northwesterly Sunday night and remain elevated into Monday
morning with speeds near 20 knots. This may support a period of
small craft headlines on Lake Ontario and possibly Lake Erie.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/TMA
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...TMA