Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

546
FXUS61 KBUF 271802
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
202 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Continued cold temperatures with a few lake effect snow showers
Saturday and Saturday night.

2) Milder Sunday into early next week, with the next chance of
widespread rainfall expected between Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued cold temperatures with a few lake effect
snow showers Saturday and Saturday night.

Mid-level troughing will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes
tonight and reach our area by Saturday morning...then will slide
east across New England Saturday. With the approach of the trough...
850 mb temps will settle to the vicinity of -15C by late tonight/
Saturday morning. This will result in continued cold temperatures...
with lows tonight ranging from around 10 above across the North
Country to 15 to 20 in most other locations...with highs on Saturday
then struggling to climb above the lower to mid 30s. Such readings
will be a solid 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this point in
March.

While tonight will start off dry...ongoing cold advection and a
general increase in moisture attendant to the approach of the mid-
level trough may eventually allow for the development of a few
light/widely scattered snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario. The
arrival of the mid-level trough axis/attendant weak surface trough
and deepest overall moisture should then allow for somewhat better
chances for some upslope/lake effect snow showers east-southeast and
east of the lakes Saturday morning...with these greatest downwind of
Lake Ontario where moisture and forcing will be more favorable. Even
so these should remain light and scattered in coverage...with only
up to an inch or so of snow of accumulation possible from Oswego
county to the Tug Hill.

In the wake of the trough passage...drying/subsidence will combine
with strong late March diurnal influences to weaken the snow showers
Saturday afternoon...with just some leftover flurries lingering
across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario by late afternoon.
The loss of diurnal influences coupled with another uptick in
moisture attendant to developing warm air advection may then allow
for a few more lake effect snow showers east of Lake Ontario
Saturday evening...with these lifting north and falling apart
overnight as the airmass warms and the low level flow becomes
increasingly sheared. Any such activity will also be light and
disorganized...with accumulations again remaining on the order of an
inch or less. Otherwise Saturday night will be dry...with evening
lows in the 20s giving way to slowly rising temps overnight as the
aforementioned warm advection pattern takes hold.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Milder Sunday into early next week, with the next
chance of widespread rainfall expected between Tuesday and Wednesday.

The latter half of the weekend and early next week will feature a
deamplifying pattern across North America...with broad ridging
across the west and corresponding troughing in the east giving way
to a largely zonal flow. Coupled with surface high pressure sliding
east and off the Atlantic coastline...this transition will allow for
the development of a large-scale southwesterly flow that will help
to pump progressively milder air across our region...thereby helping
to drive temperatures back to well above normal levels by month`s
end. While the resulting warm advection pattern may allow for a few
widely scattered showers by Monday...better chances for more
widespread rainfall currently look to hold off until Tuesday-Tuesday
night attendant to low pressure tracking from the Upper Great Lakes
to the Canadian Maritimes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure building east across the lower Great Lakes
will allow mainly VFR conditions to prevail through the 18z TAF
cycle. Areas of MVFR cigs and to a lesser extent vsbys will be
possible at times.

Residual BKN stratocu deck across the higher terrain of the Southern
Tier early this afternoon (KJHW/KELZ/KOLE) may result in localized
MVFR cigs through about 19z before further eroding and clearing out.

The second potential window of lower cigs will be overnight tonight
as an upper level trough axis slides east from the Great Lakes to
New York State. Decreasing temperatures aloft may begin to support a
minor lake response while a small uptick in low to mid-level
moisture noted on model soundings. Guidance is fairly consistent in
suggesting an increase in cloud cover after 00z though with a very
large spread in cig heights. Have stuck with a mix of mainly VFR
with MVFR southeast of the lakes, but will need to monitor as the
night progresses. Otherwise, a few scattered light snow showers or
flurries may also develop southeast of Lake Ontario (mainly between
KROC and KFZY) after 03z with brief reductions to vsbys.

Saturday, a weakening surface trough will slide across the eastern
Great Lakes. This will likely result in strengthening westerly
winds, a mix of low VFR and MVFR cigs, and scattered snow showers
through the early afternoon. Snow shower coverage is expected to be
greatest east of the lakes and between KART and KROC with periodic
reductions to vsbys into MVFR/IFR range. Snow shower coverage will
become increasingly scattered and taper off during the afternoon
with most areas improving to VFR.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Mainly VFR. Areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys with passing
snow showers east of Lake Ontario.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with areas of IFR possible. Showers likely, with
a slight chance of embedded thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly MVFR/IFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of strong surface high pressure will track just south of the
lakes through Saturday night. This will initially result in a period
of diminishing winds to 10kts or less through this evening.

Overnight tonight, cold air deepening across the region with an
approaching surface trough will cause northwesterly winds to briefly
increase, before west to southwesterly winds more substantially
increase on Saturday. This will likely bring renewed SCA conditions
to the nearshore waters of both lakes through Saturday evening.

Elevated south to southwesterly winds will persist late Saturday
night through Sunday. 15-20kt sustained winds will be possible at
times, though the greatest wave action will likely remain in
Canadian waters.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP