Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

463
FXUS61 KBUF 281756
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
156 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Colder than normal temperatures and scattered snow showers
through tonight.

2) A significant warming trend will follow Sunday through Tuesday,
with rain chances increasing later Monday through Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Colder than normal temperatures and scattered snow
showers through tonight.

As expected...the passage of a mid-level trough coupled with 850 mb
temps of -13C to -16C resulted in the development of scattered snow
showers and flurries this morning...with diurnal influences also
helping these to become increasingly cellular and spread out over a
larger footprint over the past few hours. This said...their brief/
transient nature along with the strong late March sun has largely
kept these from having little impact other than some very brief
reductions in visibility...making these little more than a nuisance
for most.

As we push through the rest of the daylight hours...drying and
warming aloft coupled with continued diurnal influences will result
in the snow showers and flurries thinning out from west to east...
with just a few flurries lingering across the higher terrain east of
Lake Ontario by late afternoon. Otherwise highs will struggle to get
above the lower to mid 30s...with a brisk west wind leading to wind
chills in the 20s.

This evening the loss of diurnal influences coupled with another
uptick in moisture attendant to WAA aloft should allow for the
redevelopment of a few more scattered light lake effect snow showers
east of Lake Ontario. Overnight some additional light warm advective
snow showers/flurries will also be possible as the weak lake
response drifts north and falls apart in response to the WAA regime
and increasing shear...with all of this then ending altogether by
Sunday morning. Given their light and disorganized nature...the snow
showers will produce an inch or less of accumulation. Otherwise dry
weather will prevail tonight...with evening lows in the 20s giving
way to slowly rising temps overnight as the aforementioned warm
advection pattern takes hold.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant warming trend will follow Sunday
through Tuesday, with rain chances increasing later Monday through
Tuesday night.

Sunday through Tuesday will feature a deamplifying pattern across
North America...with broad ridging across the west and corresponding
troughing in the east giving way to a largely zonal flow aloft.
Coupled with surface high pressure sliding east and off the Atlantic
coastline...this transition will allow for the development of a
large-scale low-level southwesterly flow that will help to pump
progressively warmer air across our region. Under this regime we can
expect highs away from lake influences to climb from the upper 40s
and 50s Sunday to the upper 60s/lower 70s south of Lake Ontario by
Tuesday...with the latter more typical of mid-May than the end of
March.

With respect to precipitation chances...high pressure anchored off
the east coast will provide us with dry weather Sunday through the
first part of Monday...with just a few spotty light showers then
possibly entering the picture Monday afternoon owed to ongoing warm
advection/increased moisture. Better chances for showers will then
arrive Monday night through Tuesday night as a surface cyclone
ripples northeastward from the central Plains to the Upper Great
Lakes...then on to the Canadian Maritimes. This system will push its
attendant warm front through our region Monday night-Tuesday along
with a few rounds of showers and possibly a couple thunderstorms...
followed by its trailing cold front and fairly widespread showers/
possible thunderstorms Tuesday night. In the wake of this system...
drier and seasonably cooler weather will follow for Wednesday...
before forecast uncertainty increases significantly with respect to
the timing and track of another system potentially following later
on in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid-level trough axis moving through the region this afternoon
will continue to support scattered lake enhanced snow showers,
albeit with diminishing coverage and intensity. Flight conditions
are expected to be prevail in low VFR territory with areas of
MVFR cigs/vsbys. Brief periods of IFR or lower vsbys have been
observed in the heaviest snow showers. The greatest threat for
these lowered flight conditions, as well as brisk westerly gusts
of 25-30kts, will be before 20z for most terminals.

Periodic reductions to flight conditions below VFR will remain
possible east of Lake Ontario tonight as localized lake enhanced and
upslope snow showers continue. This activity is expected to be mostly
isolated to the higher terrain south of KART/KGTB, though stray MVFR
cigs and vsbys in snow showers cannot be ruled out further north at
times. For the rest of the area, VFR is expected to prevail
overnight.

Warmer air moving into the region will eliminate any lingering lake
response by Sunday with dry weather across the TAF area. Skies will
likely remain BKN to OVC, though cigs are expected to remain well
within VFR territory. Modest southwesterly wind gusts to 25kts will
be possible at KBUF and KIAG in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.

Monday night...VFR/MVFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain
increasingly likely. A slight chance of thunderstorms across Western
NY.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with areas of IFR. Showers likely, with a chance
of embedded thunderstorms.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with improvement to mainly VFR possible.
Decreasing chances for rain which may end as light snow.

Thursday...Mainly MVFR with chances for both rain and snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong ridge of high pressure will crest over the lakes this
evening, then shift off the East Coast through the day Sunday. A
tightening pressure gradient between this high and a weak trough to
to the northeast, as well as unseasonably cold air over the lakes,
will result in brisk westerly winds and SCA conditions on both lakes
through this evening.

Once the ridge moves over and east of the region overnight, winds
across the region will shift south-southwesterly and subside to
15kts or less. These sub-SCA conditions will likely persist through
Monday night.

A broad low pressure system slowly moving into the Great Lakes will
then result in strengthening southwesterly winds Tuesday. This will
likely result in another round of SCA conditions on both lakes
before winds slowly subside late Tuesday night through Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JJR
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP