Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

833
FXUS61 KBUF 111759
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1259 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wind Advisory no longer in effect for the Niagara Frontier over
to Rochester.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A period of lake enhanced/lake effect snow, mainly east of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario tonight. Winds gusting to 35 to 45 mph will
also produce areas of blowing and drifting snow.

2) A clipper low will enhance lake snows Monday and Monday night,
mainly east of Lake Ontario with additional modest accumulations.

3) Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday night through
Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and mixed
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A period of lake enhanced/lake effect snow, mainly
east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight. Winds gusting to 35 to
45 mph will also produce areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Synoptic moisture wrapping in behind the primary surface low,
combined with cold advection behind a passing cold front will
support a round of lake enhanced/lake effect snow through tonight.

Steering flow turning west-northwest with the passage of a
secondary cold front will result in the most organized snows,
primarily impacting areas east-southeast of the lakes late this
afternoon and this evening. Building low-level ridging and
associated drying/subsidence/warming aloft will then result in
the lake snows weakening into some lingering snow showers from
west to east through the first half of tonight, before gradual
backing flow starts sending the latter back northward again by
later on tonight.

Snowfall amounts still look to be on the order of 3-6" across the
higher terrain east of both lakes, but with winds of 35-45 mph also
producing areas of blowing snow. Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect east of Lake Erie through the first half of tonight and
through Monday night east of Lake Ontario when taking into
consideration the additional snowfall expected there Monday and
Monday night. See Key Message 2.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A clipper low will enhance lake snows Monday and
Monday night, mainly east of Lake Ontario with additional modest
accumulations.

A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes, reaching the
eastern Great Lakes Monday. Warm air advection will be found ahead
of this shortwave, making poorer conditions for lake effect snow,
though this feature will bring back ample moisture supporting snow
growth. Temperatures at 850 mb around -10C over Lake Ontario will
be just cold enough to allow for a band of lake enhanced snow,
which combined with upslope terrain east of Lake Ontario, will
bring additional snow accumulation on the Tug Hill and western
Adirondack foot hills. Lower terrain will remain with much less
snow accumulation.

East of Lake Erie temperatures of 850 mb will be too warm for a
lake response with the -6 to -7C air just cold enough for a few
lake enhanced snow showers, combined with general lift ahead of
the shortwave snow that around an inch of snow will accumulate
in spots.

It is possible that the warmer environment the snow DGZ will be
elevated, possibly above the layer of low level moisture, which may
allow for the snow to taper off with a little freezing drizzle
Monday evening and overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday
night through Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and
mixed precipitation.

Ahead of a slightly deepening surface low, forecast models still
have around a 50 knots low level jet across the area Tuesday night,
with the jet supporting warming in the lower atmosphere. NBM
probabilities have a 40 to 50 percent chance for southwest wind
gusts to 30 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline and across the metro
Buffalo/Niagara Falls area Tuesday evening.

The warmer temperatures will support mainly rain Tuesday night.
Overall, rainfall will be light to modest, with lake enhanced and
upslope terrain effects possibly yielding up to a third of an inch
of liquid before a change over back to snow later Wednesday. Thus
hydro concerns will remain low.

Light rain and higher terrain snow Tuesday night into Wednesday will
become all snow Wednesday evening following the passage of a strong
cold front. Models continue to have disagreement with the depth and
placement of a closed low within an upper level trough to our west
Thursday and into Friday. Greater certainty in the return to cold
air with good agreement that 850 hPa temperatures will drop 10 or so
degrees behind the cold front into Thursday, which could lead to
some lake snows on a northerly flow. Dry, arctic air will not
support any significant snow accumulation for the lake snows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An area of surface low pressure across southern Quebec will
gradually merge with a secondary coastal low near the southern
Canadian Maritimes. This low will then continue to pull further east-
northeast away from the Great Lakes through tonight. Colder air
pouring in along a tightening pressure gradient behind the system
will continue the threat for gusty winds and lake enhanced snow
showers through this evening. Conditions are expected to be highly
variable through the TAF period.

With the departure of the mid-level trough axis, the threat for snow
squalls with vsbys <1/4SM has largely diminished this afternoon. The
greatest chances for persistent snows and IFR/LIFR will be southeast
of Lake Erie (KJHW) and east of Lake Ontario (KART southward).
Occasional lake enhanced snow showers will move through the rest of
the area at times. Snow coverage and intensity is expected to
diminish this evening into tonight, while the lingering lake effect
off Lake Ontario shifts southeast of the lake (mainly east of KROC
to KFZY). Outside of the snow showers, cigs are expected to be
mainly MVFR with periods of SCT possible.

Outside of the North Country, widespread WNW gusts of 30-40kts are
expected. The higher end of these gusts will be most persistent in
the Southern Tier. Winds will subside overnight tonight as they
become southwesterly. These southwest winds will then increase again
on Monday with gusts 35-40kts across the Niagara Frontier (KIAG/KBUF
and possibly KROC).

The shift to a southwesterly flow will also direct additional lake
snows northeast of the lakes tomorrow with localized IFR possible
off Lake Erie, and IFR/LIFR off Ontario. Mainly VFR will prevail
outside the lake effect areas.

Outlook...

Monday night...Localized IFR/LIFR with mixed lake effect
precipitation east/northeast of the lakes. Mainly VFR/MVFR elsewhere.

Tuesday...VFR to MVFR.

Tuesday night...Mainly MVFR with increasing chances for rain. Wet
snow at higher elevations with attendant IFR conditions.

Wednesday...MVFR with a mix of rain and snow showers, with IFR
possible in any snow showers.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with localized lake enhanced snow showers
possible east-southeast of the lakes.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with localized lake effect snow showers east-
northeast of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Widespread southwesterly to westerly gales will continue across
Lakes Erie and Ontario into this evening. Looking further out
through the first half of the week, elevated southwesterly to
westerly flow looks to continue, with at least advisory-level
conditions persisting across the Lower Lakes the majority of the
time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-
     020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas/TMA
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...JJR/TMA