Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

235
FXUS61 KBUF 282323
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
723 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered precipitation chances across far western New York
through Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected
through Wednesday, with localized heavy rainfall/flooding
possible across parts of the Finger Lakes/North Country into
tonight.

2) Increasingly drier conditions return for the end of the work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are
expected through Wednesday, with localized heavy rainfall/flooding
possible across parts of the Finger Lakes/North Country into
tonight.

Latest surface analysis shows a broad surface low/cold front
extending from southern Ontario southwestward across far western New
York and western Pennsylvania. This system will continue to slowly
wobble its way eastward and reach an upper Saint Lawrence Valley-
central New York axis by early this evening...before devolving into
a remnant inverted trough that will slowly drift across eastern New
York tonight and Wednesday as secondary cyclogenesis takes place off
the mid-Atlantic coastline. Overall...the guidance suite has trended
a little faster and further east with the timing and the positioning
of this system over the last 24 hours.

Shower coverage has decreased significantly this evening, with just
a few widely scattered showers left across the Southern Tier, Finger
Lakes, and east of Lake Ontario. While coverage as decreased, there
will still be a few brief/local downpours.

As the surface low/front drifts across central eastern New York and
weakens tonight the axis of deepest moisture will be shunted off to
our east...and this in tandem with the loss of heating will bring an
end to the potential for heavy rainfall along with a general
decrease in shower potential/coverage. This being said...these will
still not end entirely due to the presence of lingering wraparound
moisture and a cyclonic northerly upslope flow that should help to
keep at least some scattered showers in place...particularly for
areas east of the Genesee Valley. Meanwhile...the driest overall
conditions will be found across northern/western portions of the
Niagara Frontier.

On Wednesday the remnant inverted trough will linger across eastern
New York...while aloft the core of the supporting upper level low
will slowly meander its way directly across New York State. Diurnal
heating underneath the upper low`s attendant cool pool will result
in leftover wraparound/upslope showers from the nighttime hours
transitioning to more diurnally-driven showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms as we push through the day...particularly from the
Genesee Valley/western Finger Lakes eastward where better/deeper
moisture will be in place. Meanwhile across far western New York
relatively drier air should help to keep shower coverage
considerably more sparse...with mainly dry weather tending to
prevail much of the time.

Key Message 2...Increasingly drier conditions return for the end of
the work week.

Wednesday night through Friday the upper level low and surface wave
will make their way northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes...
while ridging at the surface and aloft settles across the central
and eastern Great Lakes. While lingering moisture and renewed
diurnal heating may still be enough to support some scattered
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two across the
North Country and interior portions of the Finger Lakes on
Thursday...by Friday the aforementioned ridging and associated
drying should be sufficient for a dry day areawide. With the
departure of the upper low and its associated cool pool...high temps
should also recover to seasonable levels (upper 70s to lower 80s)
areawide by the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level low will continue to move southeast across central
and eastern NY tonight through Wednesday, maintaining unsettled
weather across much of the region. Showers have diminished in
coverage this evening, with just a few widely scattered showers
across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and east of Lake Ontario.
Localized showers may still produce downpours and brief VSBY
restrictions.

Overnight through Wednesday morning, most of the showers will tend
to focus from the Genesee Valley eastward across Central NY and the
eastern Lake Ontario region where the deepest moisture is found. Low
level moisture and northerly upslope flow will promote the
development and expansion of low stratus late tonight through
Wednesday morning, with widespread MVFR across the lower elevations
of Western NY and IFR across the higher terrain of the Southern
Tier, Finger Lakes, and east of Lake Ontario. Some of the stratus
may intersect the higher terrain and produce hilltop fog/mountain
obscuration late tonight through Wednesday morning.

Showers will continue through the day Wednesday, especially across
the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario. Meanwhile, the far
western end of the state will likely be mainly dry with just a few
isolated showers possible. CIGS will be slow to improve, but will
eventually become VFR across Western NY, while MVFR and higher
terrain IFR linger from the Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario
region.

Outlook...

Thursday...Areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS in the morning, improving to VFR
in the afternoon. Scattered showers, mainly across the Finger Lakes
and east of Lake Ontario.

Friday through Saturday...VFR.

Sunday...MVFR/VFR. Showers likely with a chance of a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A broad surface low/cold front extending from southern Ontario
southwestward across far western New York will continue to
slowly wobble its way eastward and reach an upper Saint Lawrence
Valley- central New York axis by early this evening. This
system will then devolve into a remnant inverted trough and
slowly drift across eastern New York tonight and Wednesday as
secondary cyclogenesis takes place off the mid- Atlantic
coastline.

On the backside of this system...a moderately brisk northerly to
flow will develop late today and tonight...and this should lead to
the development of lower-end SCA-level conditions along the south
shores of both lakes. Winds and wave action will then gradually
diminish from west to east Wednesday through Thursday...though
locally choppy conditions may still linger along the south shore of
Lake Ontario into Thursday morning.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for NYZ001-
     002.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for
     NYZ003>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...JJR