Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

766
FXUS61 KBUF 201058
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
558 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gales Warning for Lake Erie and Lake Ontario has been cancelled.
Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very cold with heavy lake snows east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario through today.

2) Lake snows move north late in the day into tonight while
gradually weakening in the process.

3) Widespread snow and gusty winds Wednesday to be followed by
additional lake effect snow through the end of the week.

4) Bitterly cold airmass to settle over Eastern Great Lakes
through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very cold with heavy lake snows east of Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario through today.

Temperatures continue to fall in the wake of the Arctic frontal
passage with most areas now experiencing below zero wind chills,
while heavy lake effect snow continues off the lakes.

Off of Lake Erie...

A band of heavy lake effect snow stretches from near Silver
Creek/Angola northeast across the Boston Hills and more distant
Buffalo Southtowns into northern Wyoming and southern Genesee
counties.

Expect the band of heaviest snow to oscillate north-south multiple
times through today with subtle changes in boundary layer flow, with
the band position moving by 10-15 miles at times.

The eastern end of the band will reach farther inland at times
through today with occasional bursts of moderate snow extending into
portions of Monroe County and the western Finger Lakes. Expect
localized 2-4" of additional accumulation, with the greatest amounts
across southern Monroe, northern Livingston, and northwest Ontario
counties.

The greatest snowfall amounts through today still looks to be across
the Buffalo Southtowns (Hamburg, Orchard Park, and East Aurora) and
southern Erie County, into western Wyoming County where additional
snowfall amounts of up to a foot are possible today into this
evening, pushing snowfall totals into the 2-3 foot range, especially
in a narrow band from Evans/Angola to the more distant southern
suburbs of Buffalo in central Erie County. Just outside of these
areas, an additional 4-8 inches is possible, with 2-5 inches
possible across from the City of Buffalo to the Buffalo Airport to
Alden/Corfu...mainly late today into this evening.

Off of Lake Ontario...

Band of heavy lake effect snow will reach peak intensity today and
focus on southern Jefferson, far northern Oswego, and west-central
Lewis county...including central Tug Hill Plateau most of the time.
Expect a few subtle north-south oscillations at times with minor
changes in boundary layer flow, and may occasionally brush Watertown
on the north end.

Snowfall rates of 2 to 5 inches per hour will be likely with the
lake band off of Lake Ontario with impressive 12k+ ft equilibrium
heights as the lake band takes advantage of the fetch down the long
axis of the lake. Additional snowfall amounts of 2-3 feet will be
possible, pushing total snowfall amounts into the 2 to 4 foot range
in the most persistent bands, most likely across southern Jefferson
County into the central Tug Hill Plateau.

Wind chills will bottom out through this morning in the 15 to 20
below zero range across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, and
generally 10 to 15 below elsewhere. Only modest improvement this
afternoon, with below zero wind chills lasting through early
Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Lake snows move north late in the day into tonight
while gradually weakening in the process.

Winds will begin to back to the southwest this evening then south
late tonight in response to the upstream trough nearing the region.
This will begin the process of shifting lake snows back north as we
head through tonight. Even so, we will still see some accumulating
snows overnight into early Wednesday morning. However, as is many
times the case...there remains some uncertainty as to how intense
the bands off both lakes will be as the shift northward occurs,
especially off Lake Erie. It is quite possible some locales could
pick up at least an additional few inches (especially off Lake
Ontario) with the northward jog before the band dissipates all
together on Wednesday. Band off Lake Ontario may hang on through the
majority of tonight, as it pushes north through Jefferson County and
eventually into the Saint Lawrence Valley while slowly weakening.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread snow and gusty winds Wednesday to be
followed by additional lake effect snow through the end of the week.

A shortwave trough will advance across the Great Lakes Wednesday,
with a warm front ahead of a surface low bringing widespread snow.
Associated ascent tied to ongoing warm air advection ahead of a 50
to 60 knot low level jet will support a period of snow ahead of a
strong cold front that will arrive later in the day. NBM
probabilities of 3 inches or more of snow favors the higher terrain
east of both Lakes (Boston/Wyoming Hills and Tug Hill) with perhaps
overall snow total reaching advisory levels.

Core of the low level jet within the warm sector of this storm
system, with poor mixing likely to keep winds from gusting too
strong at the surface through the day. However, increase in
wind magnitude within the immediate post-frontal environment may
bring some gustiness to 45 mph in the evening northeast of both
lakes.

Behind this front lake effect snow is expected east of both Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario. While decent moisture remains Thursday, drier
air arrives in the mid levels that will weaken the Lake Erie band by
Friday, and later off Lake Ontario. Increasing ice coverage on Lake
Erie may also influence the snowband, keeping the higher
probabilities for potential warning level snows east of Lake Ontario
on the Tug Hill.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Bitterly cold airmass to settle over Eastern
Great Lakes through this weekend.

An anomalous strong western ridge of high pressure will extend
northward across Alaska and towards the arctic circle, allowing for
polar air to slide southward across Canada this week, with the cold
air supporting a strong +2 to +3 SD 1050 mb surface high pressure
over the northern Plains Friday. 850 mb temperatures will fall to
around -25C Friday night through Sunday ahead of this surface high.
A bitterly cold weekend with highs in the single digits, and
overnight lows well below zero. Could even see air temperatures
reach the negative 20s overnight near Watertown both Friday night
and Saturday night if skies clear. A slight breeze will support the
likelihood for extreme cold headlines for this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Heavy lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario this morning. VSBY will be near zero at times within the
heaviest lake effect snow bands.

Off Lake Erie, the band of heavy snow will remain mostly south of
KBUF and north of KJHW most of the time through mid afternoon.

Lighter snow showers outside of the main band along with blowing
snow will continue to bring occasional IFR to KBUF and KJHW, but
VSBY will remain above minimums. The eastern end of the band will
likely stay mainly south and west of KROC today.

Off Lake Ontario, the band of heavy snow will focus across the
central Tug Hill Plateau but the northern edge of the band will
likely clip KART and KGTB with IFR (highest probability from 10z-
16z).

Winds will remain elevate today with gusts generally in the 25-35
knot range. Still enough to cause some blowing and drifting snow and
periodic reduced visibility on airfields.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Snow showers increase in coverage areawide with cold
front. IFR or below at times.

Thursday...Lake effect snow east and northeast of the lakes with
IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR/brief IFR outside of lake effect areas
within snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...MVFR with areas of IFR. Chance of snow
showers, especially east and southeast of the lakes in lake effect
snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds speeds on the lower Great Lakes have dropped below gales,
with the warning being cancelled earlier this morning. West-
southwest will remain sustained at 25-30 knots through today,
but should drop back slightly tonight. Small Craft Advisories
have been issued on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Heavy Freezing Spray will continue to be a concern as the winds
remain close to 30 knots today. A heavy freezing spray warning
remains for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario for rapid ice
accretion on vessels.

South-southwest winds ramp back up to 20-30 knots behind a warm
front Wednesday and Wednesday night, with winds shifting more
westerly by Thursday behind a cold front. Westerly winds will remain
elevated into Friday as another round of arctic air spreads in.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ003-013-014.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ006>008-
     010-011.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ012-
     019>021.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ012-019-
     020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock/TMA
MARINE...AR/Hitchcock/TMA