Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

769
FXUS61 KBUF 020534
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
134 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased POPS for late today through tonight to account for the
potential of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity will continue through Friday, then
gradually lessening heat/humidity for the holiday weekend.

2) Showers and thunderstorms possible at times through the weekend,
a few of which may be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity will continue through
Friday, then gradually lessening heat/humidity for the holiday
weekend.

A heat dome will remain in place across much of the eastern US
through the end of the week as a strong mid/upper level ridge
remains centered on the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. 850MB temps
will remain at or just above +20C through Friday, with a dangerous
combination of heat and humidity continuing.

Temperatures and heat index will be very similar today to yesterday.
Highs will reach the mid 90s for the lower elevations away from lake
influences, with the heat index peaking in the 105 to 109 range from
the Lake Ontario lake plains to the Finger Lakes and Genesee Valley.
A gusty southwest breeze will again provide some moderation for the
Buffalo Metro area and Jefferson County, but humidity will still be
high in these areas and support a 95 to 100 degree heat index.

Friday will still be hot and humid, possibly a few degrees lower
than today for both temperatures and heat index if cloud cover
increases during the afternoon as forecast from approaching
upstream convection.

The strong mid/upper level ridge will gradually flatten and retreat
back into the southeast US over the weekend, allowing for a downward
trend in temperatures and humidity. Highs Saturday will be in the
mid to upper 80s for lower elevations, then low to mid 80s for
Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms possible at times through
the weekend, a few of which may be strong to severe.

Most areas will stay dry through midday. A weak convectively
modulated shortwave will continue to produce a few spotty showers
and thunderstorms north of Lake Ontario early this morning, and if
they hold together long enough they may approach the Saint Lawrence
Valley towards daybreak.

Strong diurnal instability will again develop today with daytime
heating. A gusty southwest breeze will support an expansive stable
lake shadow northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, which will keep
most areas dry through late afternoon. Any spotty convection that
develops will be along the edges of the lake enhanced flow, mainly
across the Finger Lakes, Central NY, and the Saint Lawrence Valley.
Thunderstorms that develop upstream across southern Ontario may
approach Niagara County towards evening.

A weak trough will sag south into the eastern Great Lakes this
evening, then stall across the area overnight. The southward
progress of the trough may be modulated by cold pool effects from
upstream convection, and a series of convectively enhanced
shortwaves will traverse the Great Lakes overnight. The weak nature
of forcing will make timing and placement of any convection
difficult at best, but in general expect a chance of widely
scattered thunderstorms from this evening through the overnight
areawide. There is a chance of another cluster of more organized
convection if cold pools merge sufficiently to produce an MCS, which
would support a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

A similar pattern will continue Friday through Friday night, with a
weak east-west frontal zone draped across the Great Lakes.
Increasing westerly flow on the northern periphery of the upper
level ridge will direct a series of convectively modulated
shortwaves across the Great Lakes region, which each feature
supporting an uptick in large scale ascent and associated risk of
showers and thunderstorms. Some 00Z guidance is suggesting a more
organized area of thunderstorms will arrive Friday afternoon or
evening. Given the degree of instability and weak to moderate shear
profiles, locally strong to severe storms are again possible with
the primary risk being damaging winds.

Unsettled weather will continue over the weekend through Monday as
the low level frontal zone remains nearby and a series of weak mid
level shortwaves cross the Great Lakes. A somewhat deeper mid level
trough will gradually evolve Sunday into Monday, with associated
large scale ascent continuing to support the chance of a few showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR and dry weather will prevail this morning, with any spotty
showers and thunderstorms remaining mostly north of Lake Ontario
across Canada. A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon and evening with strong diurnal instability.
The best chance will be across the Finger Lakes and Central NY,
Saint Lawrence Valley, and near and west of the Niagara Peninsula
along lake breeze convergence zones. Any showers and storms that
develop may contain local/brief MVFR to IFR conditions, but most
areas will stay dry and VFR. It will be breezy this afternoon,
especially northeast of Lake Erie with gusts around 25 knots from
the Niagara Frontier to near KROC.

A weak trough will move south across the eastern Great Lakes this
evening and remain in place overnight. Weak convergence along this
feature may support a few widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The weak nature of forcing will make the timing and
placement of potential thunderstorms difficult, and coverage will
likely remain sparse. VFR will continue to prevail most of the time
tonight, with local MVFR/IFR in any storms.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely, especially
in the afternoon and evening. Brief/local IFR and gusty winds in
storms.

Saturday through Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms
likely at times. Brief/local IFR and gusty winds in storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds around 15 knots will continue to produce choppy
conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today, but winds and waves
will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A light chop will
continue Friday with west to southwest winds in the 10-15 knot
range. Winds will diminish over the weekend as the pressure gradient
relaxes across the lower Great Lakes.

There will be a chance of a few thunderstorms at times this
afternoon through the weekend. Some storms will produce gusty winds
and locally higher waves.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dangerous heat and humidity are expected across western and
north central NY this week. Here are the record maximum and high
minimum temperatures for Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown.

                    7/2         7/3
Buffalo, NY
High Max          94(1966)    94(1949)
High Low          75(1931)    74(1911*)

Rochester, NY
High Max          99(1931)    100(1911)
High Low          76(1931*)   75(1911)

Watertown, NY
High Max          92(1966)    91(1966)
High Low          73(2002)    74(1973)


Average Temperatures for June 30-July 3
Buffalo
Max           79
Min           62

Rochester
Max           82
Min           62

Watertown
Max           78
Min           57

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ001>006-013-
     014.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ007-008-010>012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
CLIMATE...Hitchcock