Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

695
FXUS61 KBUF 020005
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
705 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will again intensify tonight with locally heavy
snow downwind of both eastern Great Lakes through the beginning of
the weekend. Locally heavy amounts, especially off Lake Ontario
where additional snow will likely total several feet. The lake snows
will finally taper down through Saturday, with moderating
temperatures and several quick moving systems spreading light snow
for our region to start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Regional radar over the Great Lakes region shows a shield of
light precipitation with embedded lake effect bands downwind of
the Lakes this evening. A shortwave trough over the the upper
Great Lakes will move east through tonight. The low-level flow
will back, while increasing ambient moisture such that bands of
lake effect snow will become better organized off both eastern
Great Lakes.

Lake effect snow off Lake Ontario is expected to become intense,
with snowfall rates of 3 to 5 inches per hour at times...with an
upstream multi-lake connection within a lake aggregate surface
trough that will provide additional low level convergence
tonight. Models have backed winds a tad more, allowing for
these consolidating bands of heavy lake effect snow to lift a
bit farther northward...such that Buffalo now may pick up an
inch or two of snow before the bands shift southward later
overnight. Overall still looking for a foot to a foot and a half
of snow for the snowbelts off Lake Erie, with the great amount
of this falling tonight.

While the heavy band of snow off Lake Ontario has shifted
northward by just 10-15 miles, it likely will remain south of
Watertown through the night. This bump northward will allow for
portions of northern Oswego to receive several feet of snow...with
lower amounts for southern Jefferson and western Lewis, before the
anticyclonic shaped snowband settles southward to Western
Oswego...still with snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour Friday
morning..all while depositing several feet of snow.

As drier air filters in behind the shortwave Friday, lake effect
snowbands are expected to weaken...first off Lake Erie and secondly
off Lake Ontario.

This drier air should allow for a return to sunshine for the
vicinity of northern Erie County and eastward along the
Thruway/Finger Lakes (with strong bands of lake effect clouds/snow
along the lower horizon)...while also allowing for sun for much of
the North County. It will be another chilly night Friday night,
especially outside of lake effect snowbands where the clear skies
allow for temperatures to plummet, with teens for WNY and low single
digits for the North County, while single digit apparent
temperatures reign for much of this time period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect snow will linger southeast of the lakes into Saturday
morning, with a weakening of the lake response off of both lakes.
The lake band southeast of Lake Ontario will linger the longest and
bring the greatest potential for a few inches of snow. The lake
response off of both lakes will weaken as the pattern become more
zonal and heights aloft increase. The band off of Lake Ontario will
either briefly end before an incoming clipper system, or transition
to a widespread synoptic snow across the entire area. One to three
inches of snow will be possible from the lingering lake effect
during the morning on Saturday for areas southeast of Lake Ontario,
with lower amounts along the rest of the south shore of the lake,
and a coating to half an inch for areas southeast of Lake Erie.

There is still some uncertainty in timing among guidance, but light
snow should fill in from west to east during the late afternoon
hours on Saturday as the above mentioned clipper system tracks
toward the area. Widespread snow from the system will linger through
the night Saturday night and into the first few hours of daylight on
Sunday morning. Snowfall from the clipper system will range from 1
to 3 inches for most areas, with locally higher amounts possible
with lake enhancement and/or upsloping increasing snow amounts.

After the widespread light snow tapers off from west to east, lake
enhanced and lake effect snow will continue through the rest of the
day on Sunday. Additional snowfall amounts downwind of the lakes
should remain around an inch or two, with higher amounts of closer
to four inches possible for areas southeast of Lake Ontario where a
better lake fetch and conditions overall is expected.

Temperatures during the period will remain cool with afternoon highs
in the upper teens to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will rapidly build into the eastern Great
Lakes later Sunday, largely shutting down the lake response. A mid
level shortwave and warm front will then cross the eastern great
Lakes Monday, with another round of light snow possible.

Tuesday through Wednesday, the pattern will quickly become more
zonal across North America, allowing mild Pacific origin air to
flood eastward across the country. This will bring a notable warming
trend through the middle of the week, with highs well above the
freezing mark by Wednesday. An approaching weak system will bring a
chance of a few rain/snow showers Tuesday, transitioning to all rain
by Wednesday as temperatures surface and aloft continue to warm.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect snow bands will intensify east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario tonight. A very light snow will move into western NY this
evening. Off Lake Erie...a snow band will intensify between
KJHW and KBUF tonight, with IFR/LIFR conditions overnight. The
northern edge of the band will get close to KBUF/KIAG tonight,
with local IFR conditions possible. Off Lake Ontario...an
intense band will be located between KROC and KART. The band
will produce LIFR conditions in the heart of the band, including KFZY.
Light snow showers may reach KART overnight, with a brief period
of MVFR/IFR possible.

Lake effect bands will settle south late tonight through Friday
morning. Bands should stay between TAF sites and prevailing MVFR/VFR
conditions are expected through Friday afternoon. Can`t rule out
snow showers or lake clouds across KJHW.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR in lake
effect snow east of the lakes.

Sunday and Monday...VFR/MVFR conditions with scattered snow
showers, especially on Monday.

Tuesday...MVFR with chances for mixed precipitation.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue
through the end of the week on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario before
winds diminish over the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ004>008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST Friday for NYZ012-019-020-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...HSK/Thomas
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock