Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

220
FXUS61 KBUF 020039
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
839 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Numerous river flood warnings are in effect. See FLWBUF and FLSBUF
text products or river forecasts and warnings on our website for
more details.

Rainfall probabilities and amounts have been increased for this
afternoon and tonight, particularly across the Southern Tier and
interior of the Finger Lakes. The Flood Watch has consequently been
extended until 8 AM Thursday for Southern Erie, Wyoming, Livingston,
Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another round of rain to affect the Southern Tier and interior of
the Finger Lakes Region through tonight.

2) Active weather to persist Thursday into Friday.

3) More active wet weather to return Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another round of rain to affect the Southern Tier
and interior of the Finger Lakes Region through tonight.

The cold frontal boundary that crossed our region yesterday evening
has stalled out near the Mason-Dixon line...as multiple weak waves
of low pressure ripple eastward along this boundary. While the
southward push of the boundary did allow us to completely dry out
this morning...this will change again this afternoon and evening as
increasing frontogenetical forcing and channelled vorticity rides
east-northeastward along the tight thermal gradient found to the
north of the departed boundary. This will result in another round of
numerous to widespread rain showers working across areas south of
Buffalo and Rochester through the first half of tonight...with lower-
end rain chances extending as far north as Lake Ontario and portions
of the North Country. Guidance has trended a bit north with the axis
of the heaviest QPF...which unfortunately means the Southern Tier
and interior of the Finger Lakes now appear to have a decent
potential for another half inch to inch of rain during this time
frame...with a smaller subset of the guidance even suggesting a
chance of higher amounts than this close to the PA border. With this
in mind and given how saturated we currently are after yesterday and
the extremely wet March...really have no choice to extend the
Flood Watch for the above areas through 8 AM Thursday. Further
north amounts should be substantially lighter and unlikely to
exacerbate any ongoing flooding issues or cause new
flooding...so have dropped the Flood Watch across the Niagara
Frontier...the other counties along the south shore of Lake
Ontario...and the North Country.

All this said...river/creek flooding along with poor drainage
flooding will continues...with additional details on this in the
hydrology section below.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Active weather to persist Thursday into Friday.

Very late tonight and Thursday the frontal boundary will lift back
north again as a warm front in response to another wave of low
pressure lifting from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest. The
next round of precipitation associated with the approach and passage
of the warm front fortunately looks to be substantially lighter and
will mainly be in the form of just plain rain. Some very limited/
spotty freezing rain cannot be completely ruled out across the
highest terrain of the North Country late tonight/early Thursday
morning before temperatures warm above freezing...however the sparse
coverage and low confidence in this actually materializing precludes
the need for an advisory at this time. Following the warm frontal
notably warmer air will overspread our region...and could lead to to
the development of enough weak instability to support some very low
thunderstorm chances across far southwestern NY in the afternoon...
though forcing by that time looks to be fairly weak.

Weak shortwave trough will continue to cross northeast across the
eastern Great Lakes Thursday night through Friday. Meanwhile at the
surface, a warm front, quickly followed by a cold front will pass
across the region Thursday night and Friday morning. However, due to
the weakening nature of the shortwave trough passing aloft, the
fronts too will lose intensity. Initially Thursday night, there will
be enough instability to support some showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms as moisture and warm air pools ahead of an incoming
cold front. As the weakening cold front passes across the region
Friday, expect chances for showers to persist.

Given the nature of the already sodden grounds across western and
north-central New York, additional rainfall will add to already high
flows on area creeks and rivers. Precipitation amounts for Thursday
night through Friday range from a few hundredths to a few tenths of
an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 3...More active wet weather to return Saturday night
into Sunday morning.

Heading into the later half of the weekend, a deep trough spread
across the lee side of the Rockies, Friday afternoon will deepen and
lift northeast into the Great Lakes late Saturday into Sunday night.
In turn this will support a pair of frontal boundaries (warm, then
cold) to pass across the region late this weekend. This being said,
in the wake of the warm front lifting north across the region
Saturday morning, ample warm moist air from the Gulf will spill
across the lower Great Lakes region. Despite limited instability
(MUCAPE of 250 to 750 J/kg) with ample shear, and PWAT values of
1.25 to 1.50 inches (approaching/surpassing climatological daily
maximum of around 1.3 inches on April 4). All of this combined, the
risk for thunderstorms and heavy rain will persist Saturday night
into Sunday, with the cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure passing by to our south will bring an area of rain
across the western Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region tonight,
with a few light showers possibly making it as far north as the
KIAG/KBUF/KROC terminals. Low pressure exits Thursday morning with a
brief lull in the precipitation before a stationary front to our
south returns north as a warm front late Thursday morning into the
afternoon bringing the possibility for more showers.

A cool moist NE flow will keep widespread MVFR/IFR CIGS in place
across areas south of Lake Ontario tonight, with LIFR conditions
across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier. Other than a few
hours of MVFR CIGS this evening across the North Country, mainly VFR
conditions are expected there tonight. MVFR/IFR CIGS will continue
into Thursday with LIFR continuing across the Southern Tier. As the
warm front presses northward, expect deteriorating conditions to
push northward into the North Country, with MVFR CIGS possible at
KART by late morning/early afternoon.

Outlook...

Periods of rain with non-VFR are expected Thursday afternoon through
Sunday. Occasional thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon
through Saturday night.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to modest northerlies this afternoon will veer east-
northeasterly and freshen across both lakes tonight out ahead of the
next wave of low pressure...then will linger into Thursday morning
across Lake Erie and through Thursday across Lake Ontario. This will
lead to a round of SCA conditions on Lake Ontario, and Lake
Erie during this timeframe...south of the remaining sheet of
ice.

Following the passage of a warm front...rather brisk southerlies
appear likely across the eastern portion of Lake Ontario Thursday
night, and might also require a Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms, which started
Monday night, the 30th, and remained through Tuesday the 31st
brought a widespread 2 to 3 inches of rain, with localized heavier
amounts. In fact all three of our climate sites set a record
rainfall event for March 31st. This amount of rain within an already
very wet month of March has brought hydrological issues with many of
our creeks and rivers near to above bankfull.

Many creeks and rivers will remain in flood stage today and into
Thursday, including the Tonawanda Creek which is at moderate flood
stage at Batavia, and is forecast to peak in moderate flood stage at
Rapids. Several additional creeks and rivers will peak in minor
flood as displayed on FLWBUF/FLSBUF statements. Some of the slower
responding creeks such as Tonawanda Creek and the Black River are
likely to remain in flood through Friday.

With respect to the Flood Watch...have extended this through 8 AM
Thursday for the Southern Tier and interior Finger Lakes...where
another half inch to an inch of rain may fall on already saturated
ground through tonight...and could thus lead to additional flooding
issues. Across the rest of the area rainfall amounts should be
substantially lighter...and with any ongoing flooding issues already
covered by warnings...have thus dropped the Watch across the Niagara
Frontier...counties along the south shore of Lake Ontario...and the
North Country.

A look at the MMEFS of the NAEFS and the GEFS ensembles suggests
that the peaks in the rivers/creeks late this week and into the
weekend with these subsequent periods of showers and thunderstorms
will be slightly lower than the early-mid week peaks. We will need
to watch the slower responding Tonawanda Creek and Black Rivers as
mid week peak levels may run into the late week/weekend rain events.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for
         LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ/JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JJR/JM
HYDROLOGY...JJR/Thomas