Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

660
FXUS61 KBUF 190620
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
220 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slightly increased thunderstorm chances from the Niagara
Frontier to the Finger Lakes today. Added chances for graupel
(small hail) in the same area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled, significantly colder weather will continue
through Monday night with rain and/or snow showers. Showers
today could contain a few rumbles of thunder and graupel.

2) After the cold start, another day to day warming trend is
expected throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled, significantly colder weather will
continue through Monday night with mixed rain and/or snow
showers. Showers today could contain a few rumbles of thunder
and graupel.

GOES Water Vapor imagery this morning indicates a deep longwave
trough extending down across the Mississippi Valley from near
southern Hudson Bay and gradually trudging eastward. Over the next
couple of days this trough will drag a Canadian Polar airmass across
the Great Lakes while supporting chances for showery precipitation.

Colder temperatures...

Behind a strong cold front, 850mb temps of -4C to -7C this morning
will bottom out around -13C by Monday morning. By comparison, 850mb
temps on yesterday morning`s 12z KBUF sounding were near +12C. This
will translate to starkly different surface temperatures compared to
the past week, with daytime highs today in the 40s, falling to the
30s to low 40s for Monday. Nighttime lows will be even colder, with
widespread 20s and even teens at the higher elevations, especially
Monday night.

Precipitation types and chances...

The back edge of the upstream trough axis will not finish crossing
the eastern Great Lakes until sometime later Monday. Until then,
weak but steady broad scale height falls/DPVA, lake enhancement, and
upslope effects will support on and off chances for showers, mainly
south of Lake Ontario.

Through early this evening, thermal profiles should favor plain rain
though some wet snow at times cannot be ruled out. 850mb temps will
hover around either side of -6C, though the strong mid/late April
sun angle will warm the low levels to promote melting of
hydrometeors during the daylight hours. This said, model soundings
south of Lake Ontario indicate a small dry layer below 900mb, which
introduces some uncertainty in the potential for wet bulb cooling
causing more wet snow to reach the ground in spots. Speaking of
which, diurnal heating with steepening mid-level lapse rates may
support 100-200J/kg of MLCAPE this afternoon, particularly where low-
level convergence is favored from the Niagara Frontier to the Finger
Lakes. With very low freezing levels (~2kft), could see this
environment sparking a few thunderstorms and/or graupel showers.

The deepening colder air and lack of daytime warming allows for snow
to become the dominant ptype tonight. Given how warm the ground
still is, minor accumulations under an inch should be generally
limited to grassy or elevated surfaces. Drier air begins to
work in late tonight through Monday as the trough axis moves
through, which will gradually taper off the precipitation
chances. Still, widely scattered nuisance snow showers may
persist well into the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...After the cold start, another day to day warming
trend is expected throughout the week.

High pressure ridging at all levels will crest east of the forecast
area early Tuesday, allowing for a return to southerly flow. This
will cause temps to initially recover back to near seasonal averages
with highs in the 50s to upper 40s. Behind a weak passing system
Tuesday night, an even stronger amplifying ridge will build into the
Great lakes which will cause temps to continue trending upwards each
period, with well above average temps increasingly likely by late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front has moved east of north-central NY this morning.
Numerous showers will continue across western and north-central NY
through this morning before tapering off from west to east. Cold air
advection may result in snow mixing with rain across the higher
terrain this morning. Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions are expected
across the region through this morning.

Additional showers are expected across the region today. Daytime
heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will result in a slight
chance of thunder across far western NY. Can`t rule out small hail
in any thunderstorms. Flight conditions will improve to VFR
today, however low-end VFR/MVFR conditions are likely in showers.

A secondary cold front will move through the region tonight. Another
round of rain and snow showers are likely across western and north-
central NY and MVFR/VFR conditions are expected.

Outlook...

Monday...Improvement to VFR with leftover scattered lake
effect/upslope snow showers ending.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Diminishing westerly winds will continue across the eastern
Great Lakes early this morning.

Cold air deepening across the lakes and an increasing pressure
gradient will cause westerly winds to freshen today. Winds will turn
northwesterly tonight and remain elevated into Monday morning with
speeds near 20 knots. This will support a period of small craft
headlines on Lake Ontario, and possibly Lake Erie.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM
         EDT Monday for LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
         Monday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PP
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/TMA