Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

006
FXUS61 KBUF 260605
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
205 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler and more unsettled weather starting mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler and more unsettled weather starting mid week.

After a couple of dry and warmer days today and Monday, the pattern
will turn more active and cool with and behind a passing cold front
on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A sfc low will develop lee of the
Rockies today and track northeast to the mid/upper Mississippi
Valley by Monday evening. The system will continue northeast across
the Upper Great Lakes and into Central Ontario by Tuesday morning.
The systems pre-frontal trough will move into the WNY area on
Tuesday morning, bringing the first chance for showers, with showers
continuing after a couple hour break as the cold front approaches
from the west. Precipitation potential is uncertain among higher res
guidance with the pre-frontal trough and the cold front, along with
timing of the cold frontal passage. Some of the guidance brings
better forcing and moisture with the trough, while other guidance
favors the better shower potential with the cold front. The cold
front will clear through the area during the evening hours on
Tuesday and into the first few hours of the overnight on Tuesday
night. The front looks like it may stall just east of the area on
Wednesday into early Thursday.

Behind the passing cold front and the departing system, a large
trough develops over the eastern portion of North America. This
will maintain an cool and damp pattern. As the trough deepens, a sfc
low over the Tennessee Valley will track northeast along the earlier
stalled front, bringing another chance for showers starting
Wednesday afternoon, continuing into Thursday. As the sfc low tracks
northeast the associated mid/upper level and sfc low will become
vertically stacked and briefly cut-off over New England. This will
result in a prolonged period of cyclonic flow and potential for
showers across the area. Some of these showers will track west
cyclonically coming close to the forecast area at times through the
weekend. Friday looks like the drier day of the mid to later portion
of the week as the system tracks east to New England and provides a
brief break before the system retrogrades back west cyclonically
over the weekend.


The certainty is higher with the cooler temperatures, mostly below
normal vs the rain potential. Temperatures will drop to near 10
degrees below normal for the middle to later portion of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low-level moisture trapped beneath a stout subsidence inversion and
light E-NE flow will produce areas of fog and stratus with IFR-LIFR
conditions through about mid morning. After that..drier air working
in and some mixing we should see much improved conditions across all
terminals with VFR to wrap up the weekend.

Weak high pressure over the region will maintain VFR condtions
across area terminals tonight.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with scattered rain
showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building over the region will result in light winds
through Monday night. Winds will remain mostly out of the east to
northeast through this evening and then shift to the southeast
tonight into Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...SW