Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

633
FXUS61 KBUF 190952
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
552 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Bumped up precipitation chances, rainfall amounts, and wind/wind
gusts on Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few systems will bring periodic chances for rain/snow late this
week and weekend...with colder air then returning early next week.

2) Breezy to windy conditions are expected south of Lake Ontario
on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A few systems will bring periodic chances for rain/
snow late this week and weekend...with colder air then returning
early next week.

Through the upcoming weekend a broad...but gradually flattening
upper level ridge will remain in place over the Desert Southwest...
while a broad/low amplitude upper level trough will linger across
the Great Lakes and Northeast. During this time...a few progressive
shortwave disturbances and attendant surface lows will ripple
through the base of the larger-scale mean trough and bring periodic
rounds of precipitation to our region.

The first (and weakest) of these systems will pass across eastern
Ontario and western Quebec through today...with its attendant warm
advection pattern bringing us the chance for some spotty light pcpn.
This will initially come in the form of a few flurries/light snow
showers through sunrise...with warming of the atmospheric column
then allowing for a mix with/change to some sprinkles/light rain
showers as we push through the daylight hours. Given the weak nature
of this system have kept PoPs in the slight chance to chance
range...with the highest chances across the Tug Hill east of Lake
Ontario...where a colder airmass and an added boost from some
upsloping may lead to some limited minor accums of up to an inch.

After a short break tonight...another and notably stronger system
will then drop southeastward from the Upper Great Lakes and pass
directly across our region on Friday. Compared to its predecessor...
this next system will be accompanied by stronger forcing and deeper
moisture...with both now appearing sufficient to support a round of
fairly widespread precipitation crossing the area from northwest to
southeast between mid-late Friday morning and early Friday
evening...with a model consensus now suggesting basin-average QPF
values of a general third to a half of an inch. Stronger warm
advection out ahead of the low should result in thermal profiles
supportive of mostly just plain rain south of Lake Ontario...with
initial snow east of Lake Ontario at the onset quickly transitioning
over to rain. While this next round of rainfall and renewed melting
of the snowpack east of Lake Ontario will bring another round of
rises on waterways there...MMEFS guidance currently suggests that
these would remain confined to lower-end action stage or below.

After another break in the precip for most of Friday night and
Saturday as high pressure slides across our region...yet another and
potentially even stronger system then looks to cross our region
between Sunday and Sunday night. The guidance suite continues to
exhibit notable differences with respect to the strength and track
of this system...with the current spread in model solutions
resulting in a range of possible ptype scenarios. In short...a
stronger and more northerly track (such as that currently suggested
by the GFS) would result in predominantly rain followed by a little
snow at the end...while a weaker and more southerly track (ala the
GGEM and ECMWF) would result in initial rain potentially
transitioning to a wintry mix and then to snow as a colder north-
northeasterly low level flow undercuts and deepens under still
rather-mild air aloft. For now...have indicated a general rain/snow
mix given the continued uncertainty.

Regardless of the above uncertainties in pcpn type Sunday and Sunday
night...what does appear certain is that a notably colder Canadian
airmass will overspread our region in the wake of this last system.
This will send temperatures back to below normal levels for early
next week...with the latter also supporting some lingering light
snow showers on Monday.

2) Breezy to windy conditions are expected south of Lake Ontario
on Friday.

Friday`s system will be accompanied by the passage of a fairly
impressive 50-60 knot low level jet between Friday morning and the
first part of Friday afternoon...particularly across areas south of
Lake Ontario. While thermal profiles will be fairly stable and
therefore should help to keep the strongest winds confined aloft...
the tightening pressure gradient and some limited partial mixing
should still be sufficient to produce a period of breezy to windy
conditions south of Lake Ontario...especially near Lake Erie...
across the Niagara Frontier...and across the higher terrain where
some gusts to 25-30 knots appear likely. With this in mind...have
bumped up both winds and gusts from blended guidance to better
account for this.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overcast skies with spotty light snow showers through the morning
hours as a warm front slowly advances through the region. Cloud
decks will gradually lower from VFR to a mix of low VFR and MVFR as
the low levels continue to saturate. There is a low chance for
patchy IFR after 12z across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier
(KJHW/KELZ/KOLE) and North Country (south of KART). Minimal
reductions to visibilities anticipated within any snow showers.

A wedge of drier air moving in from the Upper Great Lakes should
allow for gradual improvement back to mainly VFR this afternoon and
evening. The last of the snow showers or drizzle should taper off by
00z. BKN cigs will likely prevail though a period of SCT low/mid
level cloud decks remains plausible after roughly 00z based on
upstream observations and model soundings.

A fast moving clipper system following a similar trajectory late
tonight will cause low/mid level clouds to fill back. MVFR cigs will
likely redevelop across the higher terrain areas with VFR prevailing
elsewhere until after 12z Friday morning.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR/MVFR deteriorating to IFR with rain
overspreading the region. Rain may start out as snow from KROC
eastward. Brief LLWS possible in the morning before southwesterly
winds increase with gusts 20-30kts south of Lake Ontario.

Friday night...Mainly MVFR/IFR. Low chance of an improvement to
VFR/MVFR late. Rain tapers off from northwest to southeast, possibly
ending as light snow. Light northeasterly winds.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR. Slight chance of rain or snow showers east of
Lake Ontario.

Sunday...Deteriorating conditions to mainly MVFR/IFR with rain and
snow showers likely.

Monday...Mainly VFR/MVFR. Snow showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Modest southerly flow this morning will gradually turn westerly and
diminish to 10kts or less through the course of the day as a warm
front slowly lifts across the lakes. Southerly winds may hover
between 15-20kts with a moderate chop on the eastern end of Lake
Ontario through the morning hours.

Winds will increase again beginning early Friday as a fast-moving
clipper system crosses the lakes from the northwest. The track of
this system will cause winds to be variable in speed and direction
through the first half of the day on Lake Ontario. On Lake Erie, SCA
conditions are likely as sustained southwest winds briefly increase
to 20-25kts. Winds will shift northwesterly across both lakes in the
wake of the system later Friday afternoon while diminishing to 10kts
or less.

Light to occasionally modest winds are then expected through
Saturday night before northeasterly winds increase Sunday into
Sunday night ahead of a strong cold front. SCA conditions are likely
on Lake Ontario in this timeframe. North to northwest winds then
very gradually diminish behind the front Monday into Monday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP