Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

311
FXUS61 KBUF 182335
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
735 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms expanded across
the entire forecast area Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Summer-like heat today through Tuesday.

2) Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms this evening,
supporting a threat for damaging winds.

3) Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday evening and
last into Wednesday morning, where a few thunderstorms may become
severe (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Tuesday/Tuesday Night).

4) Drier and cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front
Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential
for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Summer-like heat today through Tuesday.

Mid and upper level ridging will continue to amplify across the
eastern United States today while gradually shifting its ridge axis
eastward tonight and Tuesday. As such, deep southwesterly flow will
advect warm Gulf air into the region helping to surge temperatures
well into the 80s and a few climatologically warmer locations toward
90. Today will be the warmer of the two days, as the ridge axis lies
overhead. However, for locations closer to the lakeshores, expect
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s due to the air coming off of
the cold lake waters. NBM high temperatures continue to trend too
warm, but it is not as overdone as it has been in previous runs.
This being said, continued to lower high temperatures a couple to a
few degrees for locations. While temperatures are warm, dewpoint
temperatures will range in the 60s supporting lower humidity values,
which will keep the potential for heat headline criteria low.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms this
evening supporting a threat for damaging winds.

A weak shortwave trough will ride along the western edge of the
ridge this afternoon and evening, introducing a forcing mechanism
along with a 40-50 knot low-level jet to graze the western edges of
the the forecast area, which will help support a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Due to the warm, moist, unstable air mass
already overhead, and the introduction of the low-level jet later
this evening, any storm that does develop could become severe. This
being said, a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms (Threat Level 1
of 5) is in place across the region, with the main hazard being
damaging wind gusts.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday
evening and last into Wednesday morning, where a few thunderstorms
may become severe (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Tuesday/Tuesday
Night).

As the mid-level ridge axis departs east Tuesday, the next mid-level
trough will jut northwestward out of the longwave trough overhead of
the western half of the CONUS. Its associated surface low will
continue to track northeastward across Ontario and Quebec, Canada
dragging an attendant cold front across the region Tuesday night.
Despite the unfavorable timing of the front`s arrival being past
peak diurnal heating hours, there continue to be high confidence in
a few strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening and Tuesday
night ahead of the strong cold front`s arrival. CAPE values of 1500
to 2000 J/kg along with 30 to 40 knots of 0-6km shear will nurture
the potential for damaging wind gusts, which will be the primary
hazard threat. However, large hail can`t be ruled out as forecast
soundings continue to highlight "fat" CAPE profiles. Additionally,
an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out either with Storm Relative
Helicity values of 200 to 300 m^2/s^2.

This all being said, the Storm Prediction Center continues to place
the entire region under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Severe
Thunderstorms. With a 2% risk for tornadoes, 15% risk for
damaging winds, and 5% risk for large hail.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Drier and cooler conditions arrive in the wake of
the cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before
the potential for unsettle weather returns for the holiday weekend.

In the wake of the passing cold front Wednesday morning, cold air
and surface high pressure will side across the region for the later
half of the week, supporting mainly cool and dry weather. The
coolest day will be Thursday with many locations remaining in the
50s for highs. There will then be a slow rebound in temperatures
heading into the holiday weekend, with highs ranging in the 60s and
a few locations reaching the low 70s.

An area of low pressure will then approach the region from the
southwest, supporting the return of unsettled weather for the
holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found, and these
conditions will be predominate through the TAF cycle. There will
be a few exceptions.

A few showers or even a thunderstorm may blossom this evening
over the Finger Lakes, lifting northward. While activity is
expected to remain scattered at best, it may impact the KART
airfield this evening.

Upstream, a weakening QLCS is over the western waters of Lake
Erie, with this activity sliding eastward. It will weaken with
the loss of daytime instability...but still cannot rule out a
few showers making our region later this evening.

Otherwise we`ll have a consistent flow of 35 to 45 knots between
2K and 5K feet. This may bring limited LLWS concerns...as well
as gusty winds tomorrow afternoon, especially northeast of the
Lakes where gusts may reach 30 to 35 knots.

With a wealth of instability, there may be an inland lake
breeze shower or thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, with the main
line of convection ahead of a cold front not expected to reach
the western TAF sites until around or just after 00Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Areas of MVFR/local IFR with
showers and thunderstorms of which a few storms may contain
gusty winds, with this activity ending from west to east and
improving to VFR Wednesday morning.

Thursday through Friday...VFR.

Saturday...Potential for sub-VFR with as a low pressure system
brings rain to the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Pressure gradient between exiting high pressure and an approaching
cold front will continue to gradually tighten through Tuesday, which
is currently supporting the moderate southwesterlies and very choppy
conditions on the western end of Lake Ontario this afternoon.

Winds will increase further Tuesday ahead of the aforementioned cold
front, supporting winds and waves worthy of Small Craft Advisory
criteria on the western end of Lake Ontario by Tuesday afternoon,
before spreading toward the eastern end of Lake Ontario late Tuesday
night through Wednesday with the passage of the cold front. Winds on
Lake Erie will be somewhat lighter, but still strong enough to
produce a moderate chop Tuesday through Wednesday.

Additionally, just ahead of the cold frontal passage Tuesday evening
into Tuesday night, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to
pass across the lakes producing damaging winds with a possibility of
large hail.

Winds will then relax as high pressure returns Wednesday night and
Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...EAJ