Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

294
FXUS61 KBUF 100655
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
255 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon
toward the western Southern Tier, with potential for isolated gusty
winds and heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible this
afternoon toward the western Southern Tier, with potential for
isolated gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Latest observations verify model trends for a slower cold frontal
passage, with the east-west oriented boundary lying nearly
stationary across southern Lake Ontario early this morning. This
will keep at least the small chance for a shower in the forecast
through the early morning hours. The main impact from the slower
frontal passage will be the renewed chance for a few stronger
thunderstorms this afternoon as the boundary slowly drifts
south across western NY. By the time we reach peak diurnal
heating, the front is expected to be located somewhere across
the terrain areas south/southeast of Buffalo. With the front
continuing to slowly push further south through the afternoon,
this will leave a fairly short window for any severe weather
possibility, somewhere on the order of 1 PM to 6 PM. Severe
parameters are by no means ideal again this afternoon, with the
better shear profiles north (stable side) of the cold front and
the better instability/deeper moisture south of the NY/PA line.
However, with 25-30 knots of deep layer shear ahead of the front
combined with diurnal heating providing a moderately unstable
environment, an isolated stronger storm or two cannot be ruled
out inland of lake breeze circulations across this area, best
chance inland areas of the Southern Tier as the front will clear
south of this area into PA last.

PWATs today are lower than yesterday, generally 1.25-1.5 inches
ahead of the boundary. Thus, even though brief heavy rainfall will
be possible with any storm, would likely need training storms to
cause any sort of isolated flash flooding concern. Storm movement
will also be progressive, further limiting the flash flood threat in
that respect as well. Showers and thunderstorms will quickly taper
off with loss of heating this evening, as the cold front finally
pushes south of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak cold front located near the southern shore of Lake Ontario
early this morning will drift S`ward to near a KBUF to KSYR line by
12Z, and then exit the rest of our region by this evening. Behind
the front, a ridge builds from northern ON and vicinity through
06Z/Sat. Our regional surface winds should trend primarily light and
variable through the TAF period. However, N`erly to NE`erly lake
breezes of around 5 to 10 knots should develop off Lakes Ontario and
Erie late tomorrow morning through early evening.

Scattered to broken stratus and areas of mist should develop via
nocturnal cooling through daybreak this morning and yield MVFR to
IFR. Stratus and mist are then expected to disappear by ~12Z/Fri,
following the onset of daytime heating and resulting convective
mixing of the boundary layer.

Isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of the cold front, especially this afternoon through
early evening and roughly south of a Buffalo to Syracuse line. Brief
IFR or worse conditions will likely accompany showers and especially
storms. Isolated stronger storms may produce brief and erratic
surface wind gusts up to 35 to 50 knots this afternoon through early
evening, especially in the Western Southern Tier.

Outlook...Mainly fair weather and VFR are expected through this
Tuesday. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR
are possible south of a roughly Buffalo to Geneva line Saturday
afternoon through early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Other than a period of 1-2 foot waves on Lake Ontario late tonight
through Saturday owed to a gentle to moderate N/NE breeze, mainly
light to gentle breezes and negligible waves are expected through
this weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...JM