Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

021
FXUS61 KBUF 102342
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
742 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory issued for portions of the Finger Lakes and the
counties lining the south shore of Lake Ontario.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing heat and humidity this week. Warmest heat indices
could reach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Friday
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing heat and humidity this week. Warmest heat
indices could reach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday.

Increasing heat and humidity will move into our region Thursday and
Friday as a mid and upper level ridge amplifies over the lower Great
Lakes and Northeast. 850 mb temperatures will climb to near +18/+19C
and the combination of heat and humidity will support heat index
values in the lower to mid 90s. With this in mind, have gone ahead
and issued a Heat Advisory for Thursday across portions of the
Finger Lakes and the counties lining the south shore of Lake Ontario
where confidence is medium to high of heat indices reaching the mid
90s.

Though similar conditions will be possible to end the work week,
model consensus continues to struggle with the timing of a strong
cold front poised to cross the area sometime Friday. If the faster
timing comes to fruition, heat headline possibilities would lessen,
especially further west. However, a slowing of the frontal passage
would allow for the same or possibly even more areas to be impacted
by dangerous heat and humidity levels. Stay tuned.

Cooler and more comfortable weather are expected across the region
behind a cold front this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Friday evening.

An anomalously moist airmass will remain in place over the region
through the end of the work week. Axis of a mid level trough driving
the bulk of the convection this afternoon is currently moving
through the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region, thus coverage of
shower activity continues to dwindle west of the Genesee Valley as
subsidence and dryer air builds into western New York in the wake of
the trough. A westerly flow will also stabilize areas east of Lake
Erie, although showers and a few thunderstorms may form along the
convergence of lake breezes south of Lake Ontario later this
afternoon. Sounding profiles continue to indicate an uptick in shear
with an isolated risk of strong/severe storms, mainly across the
Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario along and ahead of the
aforementioned mid level trough through the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening. Strong wind gusts are the primary
threat with any stronger storms. Any stronger showers or
thunderstorms will produce heavy rain. There is a non-zero threat of
localized flooding if training storms materialize.

A very moist airmass will remain in place Thursday. Scattered
convection expected during the morning, with heavy downpours as the
primary impact. Impressive instability developing by afternoon will
lead to additional convection, mainly on lake breeze or convergence
boundaries inland from the lakes. However, amplifying ridging aloft
trying to build in from the west aiding already relatively weak
shear profiles in place by Thursday afternoon gives lower confidence
of severe potential.

A trough will deepen across the Great Lakes region Friday. A warm,
moist airmass will reside ahead of an approaching strong cold front.
The combination of an increasing wind field and a unstable airmass
will support the potential for strong thunderstorms across the
region with the primary risks being damaging winds and large hail.
There continues to be discrepancies amongst guidance as to the exact
timing of the cold front. This will play a key role in exactly where
the best potential for severe weather will be. An earlier frontal
passage would likely keep most of the strong to severe convection
confined to our eastern areas, while a slower moving front could
place much of western and northcentral NY under a higher severe
weather threat. Another risk from any stronger showers or
thunderstorms will again be heavy rain, as PWAT values are expected
to exceed 1.5", which is above the 90th percentile for this time of
year. Drier air is expected to move into the region for the start of
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS mainly VFR flight conditions are found. A very
moist airmass will linger through the period, with opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms as well as lower ceiling heights and or
fog formation within the very moist boundary layer.

Fog formation, with IFR or lower flight conditions, is possible for
KBUF and KART between 03Z and 12Z, on a light southwest flow over
the still cool lake waters.

Additional showers and thunderstorms overnight, will become a bit
more in numbers through the peak heating of the day tomorrow. Given
the very moist atmosphere any shower or thunderstorm may contain
heavy downpours, lowering visibility for a brief time to IFR or
lower.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier
showers or storms. Also, lower CIGS possible Thursday night across
the higher terrain.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though there is a slight chance for a few
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest to west flow will remain through Thursday night. Wind
speeds likely remaining 15 knots or less with only the expectation
of a light chop with waves 2 feet or less.

The passage of several waves of low pressure will generate a few
thunderstorms with localized strong winds over the lakes at times
through the end of the work week.

The passage of a cold front Friday could bring a brief uptick to
winds, but headlines are not anticipated. Drier air behind the cold
front will end the thunderstorm threat.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ001>005-
     013-014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...EAJ