Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

645
FXUS61 KBUF 052339
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
639 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for freezing rain along the
southern shore of Lake Ontario, including the Niagara Frontier, and
Wyoming county tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain will continue across the region tonight, with
freezing rain across the Saint Lawrence Valley and Tug Hill, and
south of Lake Ontario.

2) A strong cold front will bring a round of widespread rain showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms Saturday.

3) Increased risk for flooding through next week, mainly across the
North Country, as a result of above average temperatures and
multiple rounds of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain will continue across the region
tonight, with freezing rain across the Saint Lawrence Valley and Tug
Hill, and south of Lake Ontario.

Surface temperatures have dipped below freezing for many locations
along the southern shore of Lake Ontario (Niagara County to Wayne
County), and into Genesee and Wyoming counties and the far northern
portion of Erie county. A persistent northeast wind, nightfall, and
steady rain will maintain temperatures below or near freezing
overnight. Freezing rain will likely cause roads, especially bridges
and overpasses to become slick and hazardous. A Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect until 5AM Friday, when precipitation is
expected to be east of the region. Freezing drizzle and fog will
linger overnight.

A compact, progressive shortwave moving across the Midwest with an
expansive precipitation shield across the lower Great Lakes this
evening. Widespread precipitation will continue tonight before
quickly exiting off the eastern seaboard Friday morning.

Surface temperatures this evening show 40s across southwest NY to
the upper 20s across the Saint Lawrence Valley and a range of 30s
in between. The colder temperatures in the low-levels will support
freezing rain tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
for Jefferson and Lewis counties late today through Friday morning
where one to two tenth of an inch of ice is expected, especially
across northern Jefferson Co within the Saint Lawrence Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front will bring a round of widespread
rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Saturday.

A positively tilted mid-level shortwave will peel off the Rockies
and slide across the north-central Plains and upper Great Lakes
Friday night, then continue to move across the Great Lakes Saturday
through Saturday night. This will force an attendant sfc low to
strengthen as it glides northeast from the Upper Midwest to southern
Quebec, which will in turn drag a strong 50-60kt southwesterly LLJ
east across the forecast area. First off, scattered showers will
develop late Friday night into early Saturday morning in the
vicinity of the warm front lifting north across western NY.
Lingering cloud cover through the morning will limit boundary layer
warming and instability available across the warm sector for any
isolated convection. The main focus for rain and a few thunderstorms
will be closer to the front mid-afternoon Saturday into the early
evening with precipitation chances ending Saturday night from west
to east behind the front.

Latest SPC Outlook for Day 3 does highlight portions of western NY
under a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms. Despite limited
instability up to around 500 J/kg, strong bulk shear values will be
impressive around 45 kt. With strong kinematics with this system,
any thunderstorms that develop could have the potential for locally
strong winds. One limiting factor will be the influence of our cold
lakes on the low-level environment. Convective inhibition will be
strong immediately east and northeast of Lake Erie likely limiting
any stronger cells from developing. Current thinking is the main
focus for stronger storms would be across the western Southern Tier
into the western Finger Lakes region, but the axis of limited
instability quickly runs out farther to the east.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Increased risk for flooding through next week,
mainly across the North Country, as a result of above average
temperatures and multiple rounds of rain.

While some day-to-day variability is expected, temperatures over the
next 6 to 7 days will be above average for early/mid March with
several rounds of precipitation expected. Long range ensemble
guidance and WPC forecast about 1.5-3" of QPF across the eastern
Great Lakes over the next 7 days. While some of this will fall as a
wintry mix at times across the North Country, the warmer
temperatures will cause most of this QPF to be in the form of plain
rain across the region.

This pattern will lead to rises on most area waterways with an
increased threat for flooding as the rainfall combines with
accelerated snowmelt runoff. Based on the limited amount of SWE and
antecedent water levels well below Action stage however, the threat
for flooding should be very limited for the waterways across WNY.
East of Lake Ontario however, a very different story as recent SWE
surveys have measured over 10" of liquid in the snowpack across the
Tug Hill. This could lead flooding along the Black River and other
rivers that drain the western Adirondacks and Tug Hill Plateau.
MMEFS guidance suggests water levels on the Black River should begin
to rise Friday and crest near the middle of next week, but remain at
odds with maximum crest height in spots such as at ARTN6 (Black
River at Watertown). At the very least, elevated flows to at least
Action stage appear likely, though confidence in higher rises to
flood stage remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread rain and freezing rain will move across the region this
evening, tapering off from west to east overnight. Surface
temperatures are near or below freezing south of Lake Ontario into
the Genesee and Wyoming counties as well as the Saint Lawrence
Valley and freezing rain is likely at KIAG, KGVQ, and KROC terminals
and may be brief at KBUF. Freezing rain is also expected at KART.
Elsewhere, light to moderate rain is expected across the region.

Flight conditions will continue to deteriorate to IFR/LIFR this
evening, with MVFR across the North Country (KART.) As precipitation
tapers off from west to east tonight, fog and low stratus will
continue through the overnight hours.

IFR/LIFR will linger from the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region
westward through the morning hours, with mainly MVFR east of Lake
Ontario. Some drier air working in is expected to bring at least
some improvement through the second half of the day.

Outlook...

Saturday...MVFR/IFR with rain showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR becoming VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of low pressure continues to approach from the Ohio
Valley, while a strong Canadian high is positioned over Central
Quebec today. This has caused tightening pressure gradients
between these two features with a moderate east-northeasterly
breeze across Lake Ontario. Fresh to strong breezes expected to
last into tonight before slowly tapering off by Friday morning
as the pressure gradient weakens.

SCAs remain in effect for the western two-thirds of the southern
Lake Ontario shoreline from the Niagara River east to Sodus through
Friday morning.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for NYZ001>004-
     010>012.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LOZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers/HSK/PP/TMA
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Brothers/TMA