Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

646
FXUS61 KBUF 311039
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
639 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased PoPs east of Lake Ontario for this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Backdoor cold front to bring showers this afternoon and evening
to the east.

2) Unsettled weather returns next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Backdoor cold front to bring showers this afternoon
and evening to the east.

Our region will lie under an omega-blocking pattern...with the
favorable ridge of pleasant weather just enough off to our west to
allow a shortwave trough and its associated cold front to drop
across the eastern Lake Ontario region, and towards the Finger Lakes
this afternoon and evening. Instability is marginal for any thunder,
but forcing along the front, combined with increase moisture with
the shortwave trough should yield light showers that back in from
the east this afternoon...and diminish over the Finger Lakes region
this evening. Overall rainfall will average a tenth of an inch or
less.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns next weekend.

As the omega pattern breaks down later this week, a shortwave trough
from the west will bring back unsettled weather to our region. While
a few members of the GEFS, GEPS and ENS bring in showers or
thunderstorms on Friday, the higher percentage of these ensemble
members favor the Saturday and Sunday timeframe...most notably the
afternoon hours during peak heating of the day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 12Z TAF
period.

Dry weather will persist across the entire region through this
morning, although mid level decks will continue to thicken and lower
from northeast to southwest over the eastern Lake Ontario region in
advance of the next disturbance and associated cold front dropping
south along the western periphery of the cool upper level low that
continues to spin to our east.

This will bring the chance for a few showers/rumble of thunder
to areas east of Lake Ontario this afternoon and evening, with
predominant CIGS expected to be around 5- 7 kft.

VFR and dry conditions will prevail across the remainder of the
area through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure over Lake Erie this morning will drift to
the southeast...allowing for a backdoor cold front to clip Lake
Ontario this afternoon and evening. Westerly flow will continue
today, with winds weakening tonight and shifting to northerly
behind the cold front. Early this afternoon waves may reach 2
to 3 feet along the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline before
diminishing with weakening flow.

This light northerly flow will continue through Monday as high
pressure again builds back into our region. This high will
anchor over the eastern Great Lakes through at least Thursday,
spelling great conditions for boating this first week of June.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Thomas