Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

184
FXUS61 KBUF 121954
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
254 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Impactful lake snows will linger into this evening across Oswego
county...before rapidly weakening and lifting northward to the Saint
Lawrence River overnight. Lake effect snow will then develop late
tonight across Niagara County out ahead of a strong cold front...
with the front then rapidly pushing the lake snows back southward
and bringing a few quick inches of snow to areas northeast and east
of Lakes Erie and Ontario during Saturday. Much colder air pouring
across the region in the wake of the frontal passage will then help
to generate locally heavy lake snows east and southeast of the lakes
Saturday night through Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On the synoptic scale...high pressure over the Upper Ohio Valley
will slide east and offshore through Saturday morning...while
rapidly giving way to a closed upper-level low and associated
clipper system that will track from Ontario to Quebec from later
tonight through Saturday night. The clipper will sweep its trailing
arctic cold front across our region between Saturday morning and
early Saturday afternoon...with another shot of cold air (850 mb
temps falling into the -17 to -20C range) then pouring across our
region during the remainder of Saturday and Saturday night.

The above will result in moderate lake snows across Oswego county
into this evening rapidly lifting north to the Saint Lawrence River
and weakening overnight as winds back out ahead of the approaching
clipper...with the cold frontal passage then quickly driving renewed
lake snows southward across areas northeast and east of both lakes
Saturday morning into early afternoon. The incoming colder airmass
and general westerly flow will then allow for locally heavy lake
snows to develop east of both lakes late Saturday and Saturday
night...with the most favorable setup during this time frame
expected to lie across Lake Ontario.

Outside of the lake snows...snowfall accumulations will be on the
light side through this period...with a shot of snow showers and
minor accums of largely under an inch accompanying the cold frontal
passage Saturday. Some additional light snow and inch or less accums
then appear likely across the interior Southern Tier/Finger Lakes
late Saturday and Saturday night as a fast-moving baroclinic wave
rides northeastward along the departing cold front and front flank
of the upper level low.

Digging further into the details on the lake snows...

Off Lake Erie...

Westerly flow will back to west-southwesterly this afternoon...then
to south-southwesterly tonight. While there will be little more than
some leftover flurries east of the lake through sunset...the
increasing fetch across the lake will probably be enough to generate
some scattered light snow showers from the Buffalo area northward to
Niagara county as winds back this evening...with only very minor
accumulations expected out of these. Things will then begin to
change later tonight as the arctic cold front approaches and
provides an increase in moisture and large-scale forcing...resulting
in lake enhanced snows initially becoming better organized across
Niagara County and extreme far northwestern Erie county (i.e. Grand
Island and Tonawanda) by very late tonight...where a general 1-2
inches will be possible by daybreak.

The arctic cold front will then plow across the area Saturday
morning...while rapidly pushing the lake enhanced snows southward
across the Niagara Frontier/Buffalo Metro area and into the Southern
Tier by midday as winds veer to westerly in its wake...with a brief
burst of heavy snow and another 1-3" of quick accumulation possible
during this time frame. A general westerly flow will then produce
weaker multibanded lake snows across the higher terrain of the
Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills later Saturday through Saturday
night...where an additional 3-5" will be possible within the most
persistent lake snows. Coupled with additional snowfall expected
during the Short Term period (details on which follow below)...this
will result in 48-hour snowfall totals through Sunday night of
around a foot in the most persistent lake snows...and as such we
have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch for Chautauqua/Cattaraugus/
Allegany counties to a Lake Effect Snow Warning.

Off Lake Ontario...

Multiple bands of lake effect snow (aided by upstream connections to
Georgian Bay) continue across Oswego county and extreme far northern
Cayuga county as of this writing...with the heaviest and most
persistent snows across Oswego county. Still expect these to
consolidate into a single band/become better organized while slowly
lifting north across Oswego county this afternoon/early this evening
as the flow backs more westerly and becomes aligned with the long
axis of the lake...with another 3-6" inches of accumulation possible
through the evening hours. Later this evening and overnight the flow
will back to southwesterly and then south-southwesterly while
becoming increasingly sheared...sending rapidly weakening lake snows
northward across the Watertown area to the Saint Lawrence River...
with 1-3" expected from roughly Watertown southward and an inch or
less further north to the Saint Lawrence River...with some weak lake
effect snow showers then persisting near the Saint Lawrence River
through daybreak.

On Saturday the approach of the arctic front will allow the remnant
lake snow showers to intensify into a band of lake enhanced snow
over Canada in the morning...with the frontal passage then rapidly
sweeping these southeast across the North Country to the vicinity of
the Tug Hill during the late morning and afternoon hours. Additional
accumulations through the day Saturday look to be on the order of 2-
3 inches. Much more significant lake snows will then develop
Saturday night across the southern Jefferson/northern Oswego
counties and the Tug Hill as a westerly flow of progressively colder
air and deepening moisture results in an increasingly favorable over-
lake environment...with guidance continuing to depict a strong low-
level convergent band developing along the long axis of the lake.
This should result in the development of an intense LES band capable
of 2-3"/hour snowfall rates...with this then slowly settling south
and deeper into Oswego county overnight as the low level flow
continues to gradually veer out ahead of an approaching secondary
arctic cold front. Lake Effect Snow Warnings correspondingly remain
in effect for Oswego/Jefferson/Lewis counties to cover this round of
lake effect...which will persist into the beginning of the Short
Term period. More details on that follow below...

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Deep longwave troughing will be in place across the Great Lakes and
Northeast for the later half of the weekend and the start of the new
work week. A potent shortwave trough will be in the midst of diving
across the eastern Great Lakes Sunday, supporting a plume of colder
air to filter across the Great Lakes, keeping the ongoing lake
effect ongoing east/southeast of the Lakes.

Brief ridging Sunday night will give way to a weaker mid-level
shortwave trough diving across the Great Lakes Monday. Ongoing lake
effect will become lake enhance and shift north as winds back from
northwest to southwest. Additionally outside of the lake enhanced
areas east of the lakes, expect a widespread light snowfall across
the remainder of the area.

Looking further into the details...

Off Lake Erie - Northwest flow Sunday will support lake enhanced
upslope snow across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier.
With in this there will likely be an upstream connection to Lake
Huron that will locally enhance snowfall. Drier air, shear and
surface high pressure will weaken lake snows Sunday night and
Monday. However, activity won`t completely diminish as the next mid-
level feature arrives to the eastern Great Lakes late Monday,
reviving the activity and shifting it north as it becomes lake
enhanced. By Monday afternoon and evening, the lake effect will lie
northeast of the lake, impacting the Buffalo Metro. Similar thinking
to the previous forecast warranting the Winter Storm Watch, long
duration snowfall amounts has supported the upgrade from Watch to
Lake Effect Snow Warning for Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and southern
Erie counties.

Off of Lake Ontario - Ongoing intense lake effect snow east of the
lake will continue its trip southward towards the southern shoreline
of the Lake Sunday with the area under northwest flow. Within this
band, up to 2-3 inch per hour rates will be possible Sunday morning.
A sharp wind shift associated with the passage of a secondary arctic
front will move across the lake Sunday afternoon, transitioning the
single band onshore and breaking the activity apart into a spray of
weaker multibands and snow showers along the entire southern
shoreline of the lakes. Lake effect and showers will expand
southward across the Finger Lakes. Activity will continue Sunday
night while gradually weakening. However, activity won`t completely
diminish as the next mid-level feature arrives to the eastern Great
Lakes late Monday, reviving the activity and shifting it north as it
becomes lake enhanced. This band will traverse as far north as the
Watertown Metro Monday morning before shifting south and hanging
overhead of the Tug Hill late Monday and Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Heading into the middle of the work week, mid-level flow will become
more zonal, forcing cold air to retreat north into Canada and allow
for warmer air to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
Temperatures will warm up into the upper 20s and low 30s Tuesday and
solidly into the 40s by Thursday. Temperatures will then become
cooler for the end of the week, however how cold it will be still
remains questionable. Depending on the guidance, temperatures at
850mb plunge back towards -2C to -20C depending on the model
guidance.

Outside of the temperature trends, some relief in activity will
arrive Tuesday with surface high pressure sliding east into the
Atlantic. The next trough passage will arrive late Wednesday and
pass across the eastern Great Lakes through Friday supporting the
return of active weather. Initially with the warmer temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday precipitation should fall as plain rain.
Depending on how cold of an air mass arrives late in the week, will
support rain to change back to snow.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the balance of the daylight hours...general VFR conditions will
prevail...save for lingering MVFR ceilings across the Southern Tier
(including at KJHW) and IFR/LIFR in lake snows east southeast of
Lake Ontario (generally from the vicinity of KFZY northward across
Oswego county).

Through the first two thirds of tonight...backing of the low level
flow to south-southwesterly will result in the lake snows east of
Lake Ontario weakening and lifting northward across the KART
terminal to the Saint Lawrence River...with some MVFR/IFR possible
there for a few hours. Could also see some brief/localized MVFR/IFR
at KBUF/KIAG for a few hours this evening in redeveloping scattered
light lake effect snow showers as winds back...with a general mix of
MVFR/VFR conditions giving way to VFR otherwise.

Later tonight and early Saturday morning an approaching arctic cold
front will result in lake enhanced snows strengthening north-
northeast of both lakes...with the cold frontal passage then rapidly
shunting these southward across the KIAG/KBUF terminals during
Saturday morning...and the KART terminal between later Saturday
morning and early Saturday afternoon. These will probably bring a
brief burst of moderate to heavy snow and IFR/LIFR to the above
terminals while passing through...with the northeastern edge of
these possibly also briefly clipping the KROC terminal with some
brief IFR Saturday morning. In the wake of the front...weaker lake
snows and associated IFR/LIFR will then set up east of the lakes
Saturday afternoon. Outside of the lake enhanced/lake effect
snows...conditions will be predominantly VFR/MVFR with just some
scattered snow showers.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow
showers...and local IFR/LIFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes
Saturday night/the start of Sunday shifting to areas southeast and
south of the lakes.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR in lake
effect snow east and southeast of the lakes.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers east of Lake
Ontario.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated southwesterly to westerly flow will be commonplace across
the Lower Great Lakes for much of the time through at least early
Monday...and for this reason Small Craft Advisories are in effect as
outlined below.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     morning for NYZ004-005.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for NYZ006.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for NYZ007-008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday
     for NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
         Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR