Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

769
FXUS61 KBUF 250022
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
822 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet weather returns tonight through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet weather returns tonight through Saturday.

A surface low over the upper peninsula of Michigan will slide
southeast across central Michigan tonight before passing by on the
far southwest edge of New York into the mid-Atlantic region by
Saturday. Meanwhile, a warm front draped across central Michigan is
supporting a few showers to bubble up along its boundary, which are
contributing to the swath of upper level clouds across Western New
York towards the Genesee Valley. While rumbles of thunder can`t be
ruled out this afternoon and evening, severe thunderstorms aren`t
expected as mid-level lapse rates are marginal, with instability
being elevated and limited to marginal shear.

A shortwave trough passage tonight, will support the aforementioned
surface low to slide southeast tonight and Saturday, increasing
moisture, and forcing across far Western New York. Overall, expect
showers and embedded thunderstorms to track southeast across western
New York. A plume of precipitable water values of an inch to an inch
and a quarter will slide across the area, and thus will result in
showers to be heavy at times. The best corridor for efficient
rainfall will lie south of the New York State Thruway from Buffalo
to eastern Allegany County. Rainfall amounts across WNY will range
from a half inch across the far southwestern Chautauqua County to
around an inch to an inch and a half across the corridor from
Buffalo to the Genesee Valley, to up to a tenth of an inch across
the eastern Lake Ontario region.

Within the corridor from Buffalo to Alfred, where the heavier
precipitation will lie, area creeks and streams may see some rises
as well as some local ponding in poor drainage areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level decks will continue to thicken and lower south of
Lake Ontario through the remainder of the evening as an area of
low pressure approaches from the central Great Lakes region,
however VFR conditions will prevail.

The aforementioned wave of low pressure will continue to slide
southeast through the lower Great Lakes region later tonight and
Saturday along a quasi-stationary boundary. This will bring
deteriorating flight conditions in low clouds and rain showers to
areas south of Lake Ontario for the second half of tonight
through the day on Saturday, while VFR flight conditions are
expected to prevail across the North Country (including KART).

For areas south of Lake Ontario, mainly MVFR conditions are
expected to develop late tonight through daybreak for areas from
the Genesee Valley westward, with some IFR possibly getting in
the western Southern Tier around sunrise. The worst flight
conditions are expected Saturday, with IFR/LIFR conditions
expected across much of the area south of Lake Ontario, while
just thickening mid level decks are expected over the North
Country.

East to east-northeast flow will be strongest north of the low
track, with winds gusting 20 to 25 knots across the Niagara
Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) over to KROC later tonight through
Saturday.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with scattered rain
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Pressure gradient will tighten as an area of low pressure slides
southeast across the lower Great Lakes region tonight through
Saturday. This will cause E to NE winds to freshen during this
time period with Small Craft Advisories in place for our southern
nearshore zones on the western half of Lake Ontario. There is
also a chance for a few non-severe thunderstorms on Lake Erie
tonight.

As the low moves southeast of the lower Great Lakes Saturday
afternoon, a freshening NE breeze is possible on at least our
southern Lake Erie nearshore zone, bringing the potential for a
brief period of small craft conditions (mainly winds) there
from late Saturday into Saturday night.

High pressure will then build across the lower Great Lakes
region later Saturday night through Monday, bringing a period of
mainly light breezes and flat to near flat wave conditions for
the second half of the weekend in to the start of the new work
week.


&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
         LOZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM