Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

540
FXUS61 KBUF 251038
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
638 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms early this
morning and throughout the day today.

2) Trending warmer this weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
early this morning and throughout the day today.

A weak mid-level shortwave trough with warm frontal segment will
push across the region this morning. As such, expect showers to
increase in coverage ahead of these features from west to east this
morning. A secondary round of showers with embedded thunderstorms
will develop this afternoon and evening with a cold frontal passage.
Instability will initially be muted earlier in the day from the
first round of showers and cloud cover, however with some break in
cloud cover in the early afternoon should build weak to moderate
instability. Additionally marginal shear profiles with 0-6 km bulk
shear of 30 to 40 knots could develop an isolated strong to
Primary hazards are damaging winds and large hail. The greatest risk
for strong to severe storms will lie across western New York. An
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out across the western Southern
Tier.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Trending warmer this weekend and into next
week.

A mid to upper level ridge will begin to build across the Great
Lakes this weekend before shifting east into the Northeastern
portions of the CONUS through next week. As such, temperatures will
gradually increase by the end of the weekend and into early next
week. Heat and humidity will then increase further through the
middle of next week, which may result in the potential for heat-
related headlines as the risk for dangerous heat indices increase.

This all being said, heat will greatly depend on the placement of
the ridge axis. If the axis lies to the west of the area, there is a
threat for "ridge runners" next week which not only would decrease
the chance for heat headlines but also introduce daily chances for
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Despite increasing mid and high level clouds along with a swath of
rain showers entering western New York this morning, VFR conditions
prevail. Chances for showers will continue to increase from west to
east this morning and last through the day today. A secondary wave
of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon will introduce
MVFR to IFR flight conditions from low ceilings and visibilities.

Flight conditions will then return to VFR as showers/thunderstorms
end from west to east this evening and overnight.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR most of the time, but some restrictions possible with a
few showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will freshen today ahead of an approaching cold
front, producing some chop on the lakes, though winds and waves will
remain below Small Craft criteria. Potential for showers and
thunderstorms will bring an increased risk for localized higher
winds and waves this afternoon and evening.

Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ