Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

303
FXUS61 KBUF 180701
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
301 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The overall severe weather potential for today has expanded
eastward, with the Slight Risk (level 2/5) area now encompassing
most of WNY south of I-90. The Marginal Risk (level 1/5) area now
extends a bit further into the Finger Lakes region.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Turning windy with showers and thunderstorms returning today. A
few strong to severe storms are possible across Western NY this
afternoon with a low-end flooding risk in certain areas.

2) Below average temperatures return late in the weekend, however
more seasonal temperatures will arrive by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Turning windy with showers and thunderstorms
returning today. A few strong to severe storms are possible across
Western NY this afternoon with a low-end flooding risk in certain
areas.

Our brief stretch of quiet weather will come to an end this
afternoon. A closed low tracking into southern Hudson Bay will drive
a powerful cold front into the eastern Great Lakes region with
another round of widespread convection just ahead of it. Ahead of
the wet weather, southerly winds will likely gust in the 30-40mph
range in many areas. Embedded storms ahead of the front may be
strong to severe across Western NY this afternoon.

Severe weather potential...

This incoming cold front is the same one that just produced a fairly
prolific severe weather outbreak across the Plains and Upper Midwest
yesterday afternoon/evening. However, the threat for our region
today is comparatively lower, more conditional, and a bit more
uncertain overall. With the new Day 1 Outlook, SPC has expanded the
Slight Risk area further eastward to now cover most of WNY south of
I-90.

A tricky setup in terms of how strong the storms will be as they
move into WNY this afternoon, with considerations for and against
severe weather potential. Strong dynamical forcing and elevated
instability will likely maintain the primary line of upstream
showers and storms all the way through the forecast area, and the
arrival time will be favorable with peak diurnal heating of the
afternoon. Across WNY, model soundings indicate strong mid to upper
level flow with high 0-1km and 0-6km speed shear values, as well as
dry low/mid levels with an "inverted-V". This suggests damaging
winds will be the primary threat if any stronger storms or line
segments manage to form, with a tornado or two unable to be ruled
out.

Main sources of uncertainty stem from potential instability, as well
as generally poor mid-level lapse rates less than 5.5C/km. Satellite
imagery indicates a shield of blowoff cirrus and mid-level clouds
expanding eastward. Upstream trends and HREF guidance suggests this
thicker cloud cover arriving in WNY right as peak diurnal heating
begins, which may inhibit the amount of CAPE that manages to form
ahead of the front today. Trends from most guidance packages have
subsequently been lower the past few synoptic hour runs, as
evidenced by very low REFS joint-probabilties for favorable CAPE,
CIN, and 0-6km shear. This should, at a minimum, greatly reduce the
potential for large hail. In addition, the exact nature of the shear
profiles remains in question. Despite the low to the north
strengthening, its northeastward track will pull the stronger
low/mid-level winds away from the forecast area just as or before
precip arrives. This leads to modeled SRH values also briefly
lowering around onset time with only a brief window of optimal
effective shear.

Excessive rainfall potential...

Flooding does not appear to be a significant concern today, though
it will need to be monitored along with the severe potential. A less
than ideal setup as the strong wind profiles today should allow the
heavier showers and storms to move fairly quickly today. A narrow
corridor of dewpoints in the upper 50s and PWATs of 1.25-1.5" should
also support moderate, but not overly impressive rainfall rates.
Main concerns stem from sensitive antecedent conditons and the
potential for bursts of moderate/heavy rain in areas of more complex
terrain, such as in the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and perhaps the
Tug Hill region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures return late in the
weekend, however more seasonal temperatures will arrive by Tuesday.

A pattern change is expected late this weekend as a deep upper level
trough moves across the Great Lakes region and the Northeast. A
return to well below normal temperatures and the chance for snow
showers will begin this Sunday.

A west-northwest flow is expected across the region Sunday. Cold air
advection and daytime heating will strengthen low-level lapse rates
through the day. An increase in PVA and large scale ascent will move
across the region. A mix of rain and snow showers is expected to
develop across western NY with a focus of showers along a
convergence zone from the Buffalo Metro to the Finger Lakes region.
Showers are also possible across the Saint Lawrence Valley through
Sunday afternoon. A secondary cold front is expected to move through
the region Sunday night with 850mb temperatures falling to -12C
Monday. Snow showers are possible at times Sunday night through
Monday. Little to no accumulation is expected.

A strong upper level ridge will build into the Plains and Mid-West
through mid-week before moving into the Great Lakes region late in
the week. Day-to-day warming is expected across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will prevail through at least 19z today as surface high pressure
slides east of the region. Southerly winds will increase shortly
after sunrise with widespread gusts 25-30kts anticipated. A few
areas across Western NY may gust to near 35kts.

A strong cold front will then move into the region this afternoon
with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. A period of MVFR
to IFR conditions anticipated within this area of convection.
Confidence is low to moderate in the potential for strong localized
wind gusts from KROC westward within storms that move into the
region.

Following the passage of the front, cigs will deteriorate to
MVFR/IFR this evening and through tonight. Showers will likely fill
in behind the front, with rapidly falling temperatures supporting a
mix with light snow after 06z.

Outlook...

Sunday/Sunday night...A mix of MVFR/IFR with upslope/lake effect
rain showers mixing with and changing to snow showers.

Monday...Improvement to VFR with leftover scattered lake
effect/upslope snow showers ending.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively light winds and minimal wave action will continue through
the early morning as high pressure moves from the lower Great Lakes
into New England. Southerly flow will then increase today through
tonight in association with the approach/passage of a strong cold
front. This may result in the next round of SCA conditions for
portions of the lakes with the frontal passage also accompanied by
another round of showers and storms, some of which could produce
locally stronger winds and higher waves.

A period of post-frontal stronger westerlies will then develop on
Lake Ontario Sunday and persist through Sunday night with small
craft conditions possible.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/PP
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...JM/PP