Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

937
FXUS61 KBUF 240625
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
225 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minimal changes made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patchy river valley fog possible across the western Southern Tier
this morning, otherwise dry through the rest of today.

2) Unsettled weather returns Thursday, with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Marginal risk for Severe Thunderstorms
across the western Southern Tier Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy river valley fog possible across the this
morning, otherwise dry through the rest of today.

Outside of a few patches of high level cirrus, mainly clear skies
grace the area this morning. The clear skies is supporting
radiational cooling, which may allow some limited fog to develop
within the river valleys of the Southern Tier and the Black River.

Clear skies will then last today, supporting another beautiful
summer day, with temperatures spanning the 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns Thursday, with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Marginal risk for Severe
Thunderstorms across the western Southern Tier Thursday.

A shortwave will drop east-southeast through the longwave trough
overhead of the Great Lakes Thursday, supporting increased chances
for showers and thunderstorms. While the timing of the shortwave is
starting to iron itself out, there continues to remain some
uncertainties. Model guidance continues to depict a leading
shortwave trough just ahead of the stronger shortwave trough passing
across the upper Great Lakes. This being said, a weak warm frontal
segment will pass across the Great Lakes Thursday morning, which may
keep much of the area covered by a blanket of cloud cover with some
embedded showers. The morning cloud cover and embedded showers will
then impact the amount of instability that will be able to build
across the area in the afternoon/evening hours ahead of a cold
frontal passage, where 00Z packages are now highlighting around 1000
J/kg (a few pockets of 1500 J/kg across the western Southern Tier)
of CAPE which will support a few thunderstorms that will have the
potential to become strong to severe; there is a Marginal Risk for
Severe Thunderstorms across the western Southern Tier.

In the wake of the frontal passage Thursday evening, expect shower
and storm coverage to diminish from west to east overnight. A few
stray showers will linger into Friday as the front slows and
eventually stalls out near the Mid-Atlantic region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patchy high level cirrus is currently passing east across the area
supporting VFR condition. VFR conditions will then persist tonight
with one exception; there will be the possibility for the
development of fog across the Southern Tier valleys and Black River
Valley this morning producing some localized MVFR/IFR flight
conditions. Confidence is low as to whether or not this will have
any impacts at KJHW late tonight through an hour or so after sunrise.

Any localized valley fog will dissipate within a couple of hours
after sunrise, returning the region to widespread VFR conditions
through the day today. Limited VFR diurnal cu will blossom this
afternoon along and inland of any lake breeze circulations, however
continued drying in the lower levels should keep the bulk of any low
level VFR cloud bases in the FEW-SCT range.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...VFR.

Thursday and Friday...VFR most of the time, but brief/local
restrictions possible with a few showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal wave action expected on area lakes through
Wednesday.

Winds and waves pick-up a bit Thursday ahead of an approaching cold
front which may produce some chop on area lakes but still below
Small Craft Advisory criteria. Additionally, there will be a chance
of showers and thunderstorms, of which may produce localized higher
winds and waves.

Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ