Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

909
FXUS61 KBUF 032359
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
759 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes for this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Windy with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon.

2) Showers with embedded thunderstorms and potential for heavy
rainfall and severe thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday morning.

3) Late winter weather will return heading into the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Windy with a chance for a few showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon.

In the wake of the warm frontal passage this morning, a strong low
level jet of 55 to 65 knots is overhead. Subtle clearing and diurnal
mixing is supporting some gusts of 40 to 45 mph along the shores and
just east of Lake Erie.

Additionally, a weak cold front will pass across the region this
afternoon. With its passage, a few showers and thunderstorms will
pass from west to east. Severe weather is not expected as
instability is rather limited. Additional flooding is not
anticipated as rainfall amounts will be under a quarter of an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers with embedded thunderstorms and the potenial
for heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday
morning.

A trough spread across the lee side of the Rockies, this afternoon
will deepen and lift northeast into the Great Lakes late Saturday
into Sunday night. In turn this will support a pair of frontal
boundaries (warm, then cold) to pass across the region late this
weekend. In the wake of the warm front lifting north across the
region Saturday morning, bringing a chance for showers, ample warm
moist air from the Gulf will spill across the lower Great Lakes
region. Despite limited instability (MUCAPE of 250 to 750 J/kg) with
ample shear, severe thunderstorms will be possible, with the main
threat being damaging winds and isolated hail. Additionally with
PWAT values of 1.25 inches (approaching climatological daily maximum
of around 1.3 inches on April 5 at 00Z), any thunderstorms that do
form will have the potential for heavy rainfall, where rainfall
amounts will range from 0.75 inches across WNY to over an inch,
possibly near an inch and a quarter across the eastern Lake Ontario
region.

To summarize, with the cold frontal passage there is a Slight
Risk for Severe Thunderstorms (per the Storm Prediction Center)
and a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall (per the Weather
Prediction Center) Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Late winter weather will return heading into the new
work week.

In the wake of a cold frontal passage Sunday, cold air will spill
southeast across the region Sunday afternoon through Monday, with
850mb temperatures plummeting back toward -7C. Not only will this
support temperatures at the surface to return to late winter, with
highs in the upper 30s to low 40s Monday and further dropping into a
range of 30s Tuesday. Additionally, lake effect showers of snow and
daytime snow and rain will develop east and southeast of the lakes.
There may be an uptick in activity Monday into Tuesday with the
passage of a secondary cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Gusty winds have largely weakened across the region at this
time, with the LLJ shifting eastward and the loss of daytime
heating. Winds are expected to decrease further overnight and
shift to the northwest as a cold front drops across the region.
Behind this front, MVFR CIGs can settle into most ports for
several hours tonight and IFR looks likely across the western
southern tier as we near sunrise.

Shower chances increase after sunrise first for JHW and then
advance into far western NY. This activity has been captured by
PROB30 groups at impacted ports. The best chance for showers
remains in the late afternoon and evening hours. A few of these
showers could be heavy at times. A warm front advances north
during the daylight hours Saturday and ports that break into the
warm sector will see CIG restrictions lift. VFR should be
abundant by late afternoon, most likely only broken by showers
moving through. Winds will increase in the warm sector out of
the southwest with gusts up to 20kts.

Thunderstorms become increasingly likely as we near the end of
the current 24 hr TAF period. VIS and CIG restrictions in
thunderstorms are likely and even IFR or lower remains possible.
Isolated thunderstorm activity is expected beyond 22z, but the
most organized line of storms looks to arrive after 00z.


Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday...Periods of rain with non-VFR flight
conditions are expected. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible
through Saturday night.

Sunday night through Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow
showers...with IFR possible in areas of lake effect snow showers
east/southeast of the lakes.

Wednesday...VFR with high pressure moving across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty winds will persist this afternoon, maintaining small craft
conditions on both Lakes Erie and Ontario due to a 55 to 65 knot low
level jet overhead and diurnal heating, mixing these winds to the
surface.

A cold front will pass Saturday night into Sunday morning,
supporting west winds of 20 to 25 knots and small craft conditions
to linger into Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A few creeks and rivers remain in flood, including the
Tonawanda Creek, and the Black River. These slower responding
waterways will remain in flood into tonight.

Low pressure and its associated warm and cold fronts will bring
additional moderate to possibly heavy showers and thunderstorms
Saturday, and especially Saturday night. There will be a low
risk for additional flooding due to our still nearly-saturated
ground conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020-
         040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...AK
MARINE...EAJ
HYDROLOGY...TMA