Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

001
FXUS61 KBUF 160709
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
209 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing chances for a minor accumulating snowfall tonight and
Saturday. Increasing confidence in the potential for significant
lake effect snow next week for portions of western and north
central New York.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Localized lake effect snow with additional accumulation southeast
of Lake Ontario through this morning.

2) Increasing chances for a minor accumulating snowfall tonight and
Saturday.

3) Pattern becomes more active starting Sunday with the potential
for significant lake effect snow next week.

4) Arctic airmass over the region will bring frigid temperatures and
the potential for dangerous wind chills next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Localized lake effect snow with additional
accumulation southeast of Lake Ontario through this morning.

Disorganized bands of lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario
will become better organized into a single band structure early this
morning. The band will initially setup northeast Wayne and northern
Cayuga and southwest Oswego counties. This band will gradually lift
north, before falling apart around midday as the steering flow
quickly becomes southerly ahead of the next system. Localized
accumulations across northeast Wayne, northern Cayuga, and
southwest Oswego counties may reach the 3-6" through midday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing chances for a minor accumulating snowfall
tonight and Saturday.

A mid level shortwave will move through the region tonight and
Saturday. Associated weak lift and moisture will bring the potential
for a minor accumulating snowfall. A low impact event with general
accumulations less than 2 inches.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Pattern becomes more active starting Sunday with the
potential for significant lake effect snow next week.

Multiple large scale troughs with embedded shortwave troughs and
associated sfc lows will cross the region through next week.

A cold front will cross the BUF CWA early Sunday morning. Behind the
front, temperatures aloft will drop with CAA to near -15C by
daybreak on Sunday. A strong Arctic cold front will cross the region
Monday night, bringing sub -20C 850H temperatures by Tuesday.

Lake effect snow will develop off both lakes starting Sunday. The
lake response looks relatively weak for the day on Sunday with a
brief shot of drier air moving into the region. Late Sunday night
into Monday, the lake response off of both lakes looks to intensify
as the next trough moves into the region and synoptic moisture
increases ahead of the above mentioned cold front.

This continues to look like a prolonged lake effect event off of
both lakes into much of next week. There will be multiple troughs
passing over the region into next week with re-enforcing cold
airmass`s and synoptic moisture and favorable conditions to setup
the potential for a significant and prolonged lake effect event
starting later Sunday. There remains model uncertainty from run to
run with the best placement of the lake snows, but currently it
looks like mainly for areas east to northeast of both lakes. A few
important notes, this is still a ways out and much can change over
the next several days and the lake bands do look somewhat mobile
with some fluctuations from north to south as supporting troughs
track across the area and winds shift.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Arctic airmass over the region will bring frigid
temperatures and the potential for dangerous wind chills next week.

A strong Arctic front will track across the region on Monday night,
resulting in temperatures that look to be the coldest of the season
thus far, especially on Tuesday. Temperatures aloft at 850 hPa will
drop to sub -20C during the day on Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday
afternoon will only manage to reach the single digits to low teens
in most areas. Overnight lows on both Monday and Tuesday nights will
dip to the low single digits to a few degrees below zero, and
possibly even colder. The combination of these cold temperatures and
breezy winds are expected to drop wind chill values into the minus
teens Monday night into Tuesday morning, with little relief through
Tuesday night.

Outside of the Monday night through Tuesday night period,
temperatures will still remain cold, with afternoon and overnight
readings remaining below normal for most areas from Sunday through
the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some limited lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie early
this morning with localized IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS. A more organized
band of lake effect snow will develop through this morning southeast
of Lake Ontario, but this should remain east of KROC with local
IFR/LIFR VSBY. Outside of lake effect areas, expect an improvement
to mainly VFR this morning.

The lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario will end around
midday. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will persist most of the
day. The next mid level trough and warm front will approach Western
NY late in the day, and this may bring some light snow with IFR VSBY
and MVFR CIGS by late afternoon to Western NY and areawide tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...MVFR/IFR with snow showers at times,
VFR/MVFR CIGS between batches of snow showers.

Monday...Windy. MVFR/IFR with snow showers at times.

Monday night through Tuesday...Heavy lake effect snow possible east
of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with IFR/LIFR in bands. MVFR/brief IFR
outside of lake effect areas in a few light snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A prolonged period of elevated winds and waves will continue on Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario through much of next week.

Low pressure will exit into the Canadian Maritimes this morning.
Moderate west/northwest winds will briefly diminish today, but
winds will ramp right back up again tonight through Saturday as
the next low pressure system moves thorugh the Great Lakes.
Small Craft conditions will remain on the lakes and the Lower
Niagara River most of the time through the weekend.

Looking ahead, a potential stronger system and passage of an arctic
cold front may bring gales on the Lakes late Monday through early
Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon
         for LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW/TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK/TMA