Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

133
FXUS61 KBUF 170653
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
253 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of dense fog possible this morning.

2) Summer-like heat Monday and Tuesday with the chance for a few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms inland from the lakes,
especially Tuesday.

3) A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms midweek,
followed by mainly dry, but much cooler conditions for the later
half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of dense fog possible this morning.

Showers have moved out of the area, however cooling surface
temperatures have allowed a staunch low level inversion to set up,
trapping lingering moisture near the surface. As surface
temperatures continue to cool toward the dew point and this shallow
layer near the surface saturates, areas of fog are likely to form.
The most likely areas for denser fog formation will be across the
higher terrain where low stratus may intersect the hilltops, and
also over and just east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with these
higher dewpoints moving over the colder lake waters increasing the
chance of marine fog that could advect inland. The fog will mostly
dissipate by mid morning, although some marine fog may linger
over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Summer-like heat Monday and Tuesday with the chance
for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms inland from the lakes,
especially Tuesday.

Mid and upper level ridging will amplify over the eastern third of
the CONUS and western Atlantic early this week, setting up a deep
southwesterly flow right into our region. A couple of low pressure
systems will cut northeast through the upper Great Lakes in between
the eastern ridge and western trough first part of this week forcing
a strong push of mid-summer like air into the lower Great Lakes and
Northeast on their eastern flank. This will help boost temperatures
well into the 80s across much of western and northcentral NY Monday
and Tuesday, with a run at 90F not out of the question for some of
our traditionally warmest locations. The warmest day will likely be
Monday with the mid and upper level ridge axis cresting over our
region, with upper level heights then falling a bit Tuesday as the
ridge axis moves east of the area. NBM max temperature output
continues to be too warm, thus in coordination with surrounding
offices as has been done over the past several days, daytime highs
were lowered a few to several degrees both days. The potential for
reaching heat headline criteria continues to be low, however this is
the first time this season our area will experience true, summer-
like weather. Expect temperatures along and close to the lakeshores
to be cooler owed to the still chilly lake water temperatures.

Building instability both afternoons will bring the possibility for
a few showers and thunderstorms to develop along and inland of any
lake breeze boundaries. This will be especially true on Tuesday
afternoon as a strong cold front approaches from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A strong cold front will bring showers and
thunderstorms midweek, followed by mainly dry, but much cooler
conditions for the later half of the week.

A strong cold front is progged to cross the area later Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning, bringing a period of showers and
thunderstorms to western and northcentral NY. A large area of high
pressure will build into our region in the wake of the front,
bringing a mainly dry, but much cooler airmass back in across the
area. Coolest day will be Thursday, with many locations not getting
out of the 50s. Expect a slow rebound in temperatures into the
holiday weekend with 60s and some low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lingering low level moisture will bring the potential for flight
restrictions across the terminals through mid morning.

A shallow, but staunch low level inversion has set up across the
area early this morning with the shallow layer from the ground to
the bottom of the inversion becoming saturated as surface
temperatures continue to cool toward the dew point, especially in
areas where the ground is still wet from earlier showers. As
expected, also seeing some marine fog forming over the lakes
(especially on Lake Ontario) on Nighttime Microphysics imagery with
higher dew point air overtopping the still chilly waters, which
could then be advected inland on a light W to SW flow. Already have
IFR CIGS at KJHW and KART, with mainly clear skies elsewhere other
than some thin, patchy cirrus. These clear skies are what may lead
to fog formation toward daybreak, with marine advection fog and
stratus also possible at KBUF. If denser fog does form, expect IFR
to LIFR VSBY, with the worst conditions across the higher terrain
and east/northeast of the lakes.

Strong mid May diurnal heating will help erode most of the fog and
low stratus over land by mid morning, with a return to mainly VFR
conditions by late morning/early afternoon. Marine fog and stratus
may persist over the lakes for much of the day.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday..Mainly VFR. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms
later in the afternoon.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms likely, ending later Wednesday.

Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will be in place today and tonight on both
lakes providing light winds and little to no wave action.

Pressure gradient steadily tightens some Monday through Monday
night, bringing gradually strengthening SW breezes on both lakes
with light to at times moderate chop, before near SCA conditions
will be possible by Tuesday afternoon with fresh southwesterlies
across western Lake Ontario ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM