Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

814
FXUS61 KBUF 072349
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
749 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Inserted low chance PoPs across portions of the North Country to
account for lingering diurnally-driven showers.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few leftover showers in the North Country early this evening,
then additional widely scattered showers/storms possible across the
Southern Tier Wednesday.

2) The next round of showers and scattered thunderstorms expected
late Thursday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A few leftover showers in the North Country early
this evening, then additional widely scattered showers/storms
possible across the Southern Tier Wednesday.

Daytime heating/instability coupled with a lake breeze boundary
triggered some spotty showers across the North Country during the
late afternoon hours...some of which are still hanging on as of
early this evening. These will gradually fade out this evening with
the loss of heating and the collapse of the lake breeze boundary.
Otherwise...dry weather is expected tonight through Thursday
morning...with renewed daytime heating/instability and a developing
lake breeze boundary to the lee of Lake Erie then potentially
supporting some additional widely scattered showers and storms
across the Southern Tier Wednesday afternoon/early evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next round of showers and scattered
thunderstorms expected late Thursday through Friday.

Mid-level trough and an associated weak cold front will pass across
the central Great Lakes Thursday afternoon, where said cold front
will eventually pass across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night
into Friday. Ahead of the feature, weak forcing will overspread the
region, supporting a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
late Thursday afternoon. A southwest wind will support a stable lake
shadow to expand northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario, and therefor
keep these locations on the dry side. As the front makes it further
east and eventually crosses the area, expect widespread showers and
a few scattered thunderstorms to pass southeast across the area. Due
to the timing of arrival of the front being past the peak diurnal
heating, the severe potential will be kept to a minimum.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A few leftover spotty showers and brief/highly localized
restrictions across the North Country early this evening should end
by 02z-03z with the loss of heating.

Otherwise...mainly clear skies and light winds will allow for good
radiational cooling and narrowing dewpoint depressions tonight...
leading to the development of LIFR/IFR valley fog across the
Southern Tier (including at KJHW) and some patchier IFR/MVFR fog
across the rest of western New York...with the latter most likely to
affect the KIAG/KBUF terminals.

Any fog that forms tonight will then mix out within a few hours
after sunrise on Wednesday...leaving behind predominantly VFR
conditions for the rest of the day. The one exception to this will
be across the Southern Tier Wednesday afternoon...where increasing
diurnal instability and a developing lake breeze boundary may lead
to the development of some widely scattered showers/storms and
attendant brief/localized restrictions.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Patchy fog with local IFR, otherwise VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms
inland from the lakes in the afternoon.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms likely at times.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A light to modest easterly to southeasterly flow will prevail across
the Lower Great Lakes tonight. Light winds will then follow on
Wednesday as a ridge of surface high pressure settles overhead. All
in all, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

An approaching cold front Thursday will cause southwest/west winds
to increase...supporting the development of choppy conditions on
both lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ/JJR
AVIATION...EAJ/JJR
MARINE...EAJ/JJR