Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

191
FXUS61 KBUF 150638
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
238 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe thunderstorm threat has slightly increased across the
Southern Tier this afternoon.

Severe thunderstorms risk has also increased Thursday from the
Finger Lakes to the southern Tug Hill region, with a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) now in place. A Marginal Risk remains for the rest of
the forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the
week.

2) Severe thunderstorms remain possible through Thursday, with
locally heavy rainfall also possible through tonight.

3) The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much
colder air arrives by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the work week.

An unsettled and active pattern will continue through the end of the
workweek with a WSW-ENE oriented frontal zone draped across the
Great Lakes and Northeast. Numerous convectively augmented
shortwaves will move through the zonal flow pattern aloft along the
frontal zone and support numerous waves of showers and thunderstorms.

A weakening MCS will reach Western NY before daybreak today, then
move rapidly east across the rest of the area this morning and
continue to weaken with time and eastern extent as it races out
ahead of the reservoir of stronger instability over the upper Ohio
Valley. Expect a period of mainly dry weather for a few hours in the
wake of the departing MCS. Another round of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and
evening with diurnal instability and the arrival of another
convectively augmented shortwave. The best coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will likely be late this afternoon through this
evening south of the NYS Thruway where greater instability will
develop, and forcing is forecast to maximize ahead of the next
shortwave.

Convection will diminish in coverage overnight as the shortwave
moves east and the boundary layer stabilizes. There will still
likely be a few scattered showers lingering with deep moisture still
in place and the frontal zone lingering nearby. Late tonight through
Thursday expect a rinse and repeat pattern, with another potential
decaying area of convection arriving early in the morning, followed
by additional rounds of showers and a few scattered thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening.

Friday, a stronger mid level shortwave will cross the eastern Great
Lakes in the morning, with a somewhat cooler airmass moving into the
region. The cooler air will reduce the chances of thunder. Showers
will continue through the first half of the day before tapering off
from west to east in the afternoon and evening as a skinny ridge of
high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe thunderstorms remain possible in some areas
through Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall also possible through
tonight.

Active weather will persist through much of the week as described in
key message (1). The eastern Great Lakes will remain in a "ridge
roller" type pattern with multiple convectively enhanced shortwaves
spilling across a quasi-stationary E-W oriented thermal boundary
over the Great Lakes today through Thursday. This setup will be
supportive for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, though the
main threat area will differ each period through Thursday. The
boundary will finally get shunted more firmly southeast of the
region as a cold front Thursday night.

The first low-end severe potential will come as a potent MCS moving
east of Michigan tracks into the Eastern Great Lakes region. RAP13
environmental analysis depicts 500-1500J/kg of MUCAPE ahead of this
complex, though these values decrease with eastward extent into NYS.
Shear profiles appear generally unidirectional with 0-6km magnitudes
of around 45kts. It is thus expected that this system will hold
together and track into the forecast area early this morning,
arriving in WNY around 5AM. While this MCS has a history of
producing very strong surface winds, the decreasing amount of
instability and unfavorable diurnal timing in our area will be
working against it and should cause a general weakening trend,
especially as it moves further east. Still, it will need to be
closely monitored this morning.

Behind this initial swath of showers and thunderstorms, there should
be a break in the activity until the next convective shortwave
arrives later this afternoon. The environment south of the stalled
overhead boundary will recover to allow MLCAPE values to increase to
around 1000-2000J/kg across the Southern Tier in particular. Wind
profiles aloft will also strengthen through overall shear magnitudes
will remain similar to those this morning. Severe risk will likely
be mostly contingent on the exact track of this next shortwave.
Latest hi-res guidance indicates a fairly well-defined QLCS moving
into northern Pennsylvania which may partially clip over the NY/PA
border, though there are subtle differences in this northern extent.
Should this system develop as advertised and take a more northern
track, could see a swath of strong wind gusts, marginally severe
hail and/or even an isolated tornado in the Southern Tier later this
afternoon and early evening.

For Thursday, the severe threat will likely be driven by a much
broader upstream shortwave that will briefly drive a strong 45kt
southwesterly LLJ into the forecast area from the Ohio Valley. The
arrival of this jet will likely coincide with peak diurnal heating
hours in the afternoon. Instability will likely be greatest (nearing
1000J/kg) in our area across the Finger Lakes and towards the Tug
Hill region, which is where the higher risk of severe weather may
become focused Thursday. Shear profiles suggest strong multicellular
convection growing into line segments may be possible with damaging
winds being the primary hazard.

In addition to the severe weather threat, given the moist
antecendant conditions and PWAT values between 1.25-1.5" through
Thursday, there is a low-end threat for excessive rainfall. This
would mainly be a concern if the same spatial areas see repeated
rounds of convection in quick succession, especially those with
complex terrain such as the Southern Tier. Given the relatively
quick storm motions expected and fairly large breaks between most
rounds of convection, this is not the primary concern but one worth
monitoring over the next couple of days.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The very warm pattern continues through Saturday
before much colder air arrives by early next week.

A thermal ridge will build into the eastern Great Lakes and
Northeast Saturday just ahead of a deepening trough over the upper
Midwest. Temperatures will soar into at least the mid to upper 70s,
with 80s a possibility if clouds and showers hold off until late in
the day. A strong cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes
Saturday night, with another round of showers and scattered
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. There may be some severe
potential if convection arrives by late afternoon and evening
Saturday when stronger diurnal instability is still available.

Strong cold advection will develop behind the cold front by Saturday
morning. A deep trough will become established across the eastern
Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday night through Monday, delivering an
unseasonably cold airmass. 850MB temps will bottom out in the -10C
to -14C range, more than cold enough to support lake effect and
upslope snow showers in a northwest flow regime Sunday night through
Monday morning. Moisture appears limited and the favorable synoptic
scale setup is brief, so any accumulations will be minor. Highs
Monday will only be in the lower 40s at best, and may stay in the
30s if clouds persist most of the day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Variable flight conditions expected for the 06z TAF cycle as a
couple of convective shortwaves are expected to move into the
region, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions
are expected to prevail in VFR/MVFR range in most areas through 00z
this evening, with IFR cigs at times in the North Country.

The first round of convection will arrive at the western terminals
(KBUF/KIAG/KROC) between 09z and 10z this morning. This will likely
bring TSRA at least as far east as KROC, with sharply decreasing
chances across the North Country. Vsbys may briefly dip into IFR
range as showers and thunderstorms with this complex move through.
While the system is expected to weaken as it arrives and moves
through, there is a chance for strong, brief surface wind gusts in
excess of 40kts.

Following a break in the precipitation, the bulk of the morning
hours will be dry until additional convection moves in from the west
this afternoon. Thunderstorms are likely in the Southern Tier from
KJHW to KELZ between 19z and 02z, with decreasing chances further
north and with time further into tonight.

A stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity and another approaching
shortwave may allow for additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms overnight tonight. Between these showers and warm,
moist air flowing across the cold lakes, a mix of MVFR and IFR is
expected to prevail across the region with patchy fog developing.

Outlook...

Thursday and Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at times.
Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible.

Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers later in the
afternoon.

Sunday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with rain showers mixing with and
changing to snow through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to cross
the lakes through Thursday, a few of which may produce strong
surface wind gusts and locally higher waves. Otherwise, with the
warmer airmass in place and relatively cold lake temperatures,
limited mixing of synoptic winds should preclude any prolonged SCA-
conditions across the waters.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/PP
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP