Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

341
FXUS61 KBUF 140005
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
805 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minimal changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A brief period of dangerous heat tomorrow, with very warm,
but less humid conditions Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...A brief period of dangerous heat tomorrow, with
very warm, but less humid conditions Wednesday.

Large dome of high pressure will continue to expand into the
Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Low level thicknesses
will build as 850mb temps rise into the the 22C-25C range (99th
percentile for mid July) by tomorrow. This will support highs
reaching the mid to even upper 90s across the Lake Plains,
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes, and upper 80s to lower 90s
elsewhere.

Winds will strengthen as well tomorrow under a strong LLJ, with
25-40 mph gusts possible, which will also advect in a plume of
higher moisture with Tds reaching the low 70s across the lower
elevations. As a result, heat indices will climb into the lower
100s here, and even as high as 105 degrees. Elsewhere, peak heat
indices will reach the mid to upper 90s. A Heat Advisory
continues for all of WNY from 11 am to 8 pm tomorrow.

Very warm and humid conditions will remain into at least the first
part of Wednesday, before an approaching mid level trough and
surface cold front drop south out of eastern Canada ushering in
cooler and drier air from north to south through the second half of
the day. High temps will still range through the 80s by early
Wednesday afternoon, but dropping humidity levels will keep heat
indices about the same as the actual air temperature.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions across the area with bring SW flow through the
overnight. This will continue into Tuesday with gusts rapidly
increasing after sunrise and continuing in the 20-30 kt range
all afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers or a
thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Good marine conditions will continue through tonight with light
winds and little to no wave action. By early tomorrow morning,
winds will increase to 15-20 kts out of the WSW, with waves
building to 1-3 ft. Winds continue to strengthen through the
day, leading to Small Craft conditions developing across all of
Lake Ontario and eastern Lake Erie. Winds will become WSW at
15-25 kts tomorrow afternoon, with gusts to 30 kts possible.
Waves will increase to 3-5 ft across Lake Ontario (highest to
the east), and 2-4 ft across eastern Lake Erie.

Winds will decrease Tuesday night behind a cold front, becoming
generally west around 10 kts Wednesday. Waves will be slower to
subside, dropping to 2-4 ft across eastern Lake Ontario by
Wednesday morning, and 1-2 ft elsewhere.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for Tuesday, July 14th:

Buffalo, NY 92 (2005)

Rochester, NY97 (1952)

Watertown, NY 91 (1952)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/SGK
AVIATION...Fries
MARINE...SGK
CLIMATE...SGK