Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

135
FXUS61 KBUF 082315
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
615 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold Weather Advisory issued for all of western and north central
New York through 10 AM Monday.

Light to moderate accumulating snowfall for some of our region,
along with the chance for a light wintry mix across other portions
of the area Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerously cold continues through Monday morning.

2) A period of light to potentially moderate snowfall for portions
of the area Tuesday, possibly starting off as a wintry mix at the
onset across portions of Western NY, followed by the potential for
areas of upslope and lake effect snow Tuesday night through at least
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerously cold continues through Monday morning.

Arctic airmass will remain over the region through Monday. Surface
high pressure will move overhead tonight. Clearing and light winds
over fresh snowpack will support temperatures falling well below
guidance. Overnight temperatures will fall to zero to 10 below over
most of western New York, with temperatures as cold as 15 below
across the Southern Tier and 30 below or colder for portions of
the North Country. Lake clouds will keep areas near Lake Ontario
and the Finger Lakes warmer. Although winds will be lightening
through the night and may even go near calm for some areas, wind
chills may still get as cold as 15 to 25 below zero for some
areas. A Cold Weather Advisory issued for all of western and
north central New York.

An upper level ridge will build into the Plains the start of the
work week with a less harsh airmass expected to start the work week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A period of light to potentially moderate snowfall
for portions of the area Tuesday, possibly starting off as a wintry
mix at the onset across portions of Western NY, followed by the
potential for areas of upslope and lake effect snow Tuesday night
through at least Thursday.

A weak Clipper system just north of Lake Superior will push a warm
front across the region Tuesday morning, followed by a cold front
Tuesday afternoon as it slides southeast, bringing a period of
mainly light widespread precipitation to the region. Confidence is
medium to high on a light to possibly moderate snowfall across the
North Country (particularly the higher terrain), especially with
this area being closer to the better moisture and forcing..as well
as colder air. Confidence lowers significantly across areas south of
Lake Ontario as a nose of warmer air tries to work in Tuesday
morning, bringing the possibility for a light wintry mix across
portions of this region. Thermal profiles are a bit warmer with the
12Z guidance, thus will lean slightly higher with the chances for at
least some wintry mix across areas south of Lake Ontario, however
will need see what happens with future model runs before confidence
starts to increase for this scenario.

Another shot of colder air pushes in behind the systems` cold front
mid week with 850mb temps falling back into the negative mid teens
C. Some synoptic moisture will linger across the region through at
least Thursday. A west to northwest low level flow will lead to the
possibility for localized light to possibly moderate additional
accumulating snowfall across across upslope prone areas (especially
east of Lake Ontario), with lake effect snow possible east and
southeast of mainly Lake Ontario. Much less of a lake response off
Lake Erie being just about entirely frozen. Lake effect snow may
linger late into the work week, however models diverge some on the
details as we get into the medium range. Confidence is medium for
upslope and lake effect snow mid week, however lower confidence in
placement of lake effect bands at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Outside of a patch of MVFR lake effect clouds southeast of Lake
Ontario spanning east of Rochester to Oswego, mainly VFR conditions
prevail elsewhere as surface high pressure moves overhead. Lake
clouds will dissipate overnight returning all sites to VFR.

With high pressure overhead Monday, VFR conditions will prevail.

Outlook...

Monday night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Thursday...Restrictions possible in scattered
snow showers.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds of 6 to 12 knots this evening will diminish and
become variable at under 10 knots tonight and Monday as high
pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes.

Light offshore winds Monday night will becoming southwest Tuesday
with speeds approaching 15 knots. A gradual shift to the west-
northwest is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday with speeds
of 20-25 knots with an eventual need for small craft headlines
during this time frame.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are
now ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/TMA
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/TMA