Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

513
FXUS61 KBUF 041811
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
111 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for freezing rain in Jefferson
and Lewis counties Thursday night through Friday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain will develop Thursday and continue through
Thursday night, with freezing rain expected across the Saint
Lawrence Valley and on the Tug Hill, and possibly south of Lake
Ontario.

2) Increased risk for flooding as a result of above average
temperatures and chances for rain to continue through the weekend
and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
1) Widespread rain will develop Thursday and continue through
Thursday night, with freezing rain expected across the Saint
Lawrence Valley and on the Tug Hill, and possibly south of Lake
Ontario.

A shortwave trough located over the Central Plains this afternoon
will move east-northeast reaching the eastern Great Lakes region by
Thursday night. A weak surface low will develop and move into the
Ohio Valley Thursday. Surface high pressure will maintain dry
conditions across the region through most of tonight.

An elevated warm front draped from west to east across the Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic will begin to move northward tonight.
Ascent and moisture will move northward across the Ohio Valley,
while a reinforcing surface high over Ontario and Quebec moves
southward. A northeast flow will develop across the forecast area
tonight, which will help hold off on precipitation moving into
western NY tonight.

Large scale ascent and deeper moisture combined with a strengthening
thermal gradient will approach the region Thursday. Scattered rain
showers will move into western NY Thursday morning, before
widespread rain develops across western NY Thursday afternoon.
Mostly dry weather will continue east of Lake Ontario Thursday. By
Thursday afternoon, there will be a large temperature difference
across the region with 50s F across the western Southern Tier and
upper 30s north of Interstate 90 (BUF to SYR.) Thermal profiles
suggest the potential for freezing rain in a few locations across
the forecast area Thursday through Thursday night. The first
location is across the southern shore of Lake Ontario, where
forecast temperatures are expected to be right around freezing and
this could result in a period of freezing rain. Widespread rain is
expected to move into the eastern Lake Ontario region Thursday
night. A northeast flow along the Saint Lawrence Valley is expected
to maintain colder air across northern Jefferson county. This is a
favorable set-up for freezing rain and while there still remains
model spread in the amount of rainfall, one to two tenths of an inch
of ice is expected across northern Jefferson county. Freezing rain
is expected to clip the northern edge of Lewis county, and
temperatures will be around freezing on the higher elevations (Tug
Hill.) A Winter Weather Advisory was issued of Jefferson and Lewis
counties late Thursday through Friday morning.

Precipitation will end from west to east Friday morning. 24-hr
forecast rainfall amounts (7am Thu to 7am Fri) will average 0.25-
0.75" across western NY and 0.20" to 0.45" across the eastern Lake
Ontario region. The current deterministic NBM forecast has 0.75-
1.00" near the NY/PA border. There still remains considerable spread
in model guidance QPF with the 24 hr precip difference for the 25th
to 75 percentile around 0.50" across the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increased risk for flooding as a result of above
average temperatures and chances for rain to continue through the
weekend and into next week.

Day to day warming trend will continue into next week, with daytime
temperatures on average warming up into the 50s areawide. This being
said, there will be a few days across WNY where temperatures will
climb well into the 60 and approach 70 ahead of approaching cold
fronts, one this weekend and the second by the middle of the next
week.

Two periods of rain will grace the region this weekend and by the
middle of next week, due to cold frontal passages. The first cold
front will pass Saturday, and the second occuring during the middle
of next week. With the frontal passages, expect rain to spread from
west to east across the region, supporting rainfall amounts of up to
a quarter to a third of an inch. Additionally, a few rumbles of
thunder can`t be ruled out with the passage of the system on
Saturday.

The combination of the warm ambient temperatures, and the rainfall
on the snow pack will support the snowpack to further ripen, and
rapidly deplete. While the snowpack across much of WNY has majorly
depleted in the past week or so, the snowpack across the North
Country remains well in tack, with the snow depth ranging from 8
inches and a measured snow water equivalent(SWE) of 1.1 inches in
West Carthage, NY to a measured snow depth of 42 inches with an
estimated SWE of around 6 inches. Additionally, should note that the
frost depth at Chases Lake, NY was measured at 22 inches this
morning, meaning any snow that does melt as well as the added
rainfall will not percolate into the soil and be pure runoff. This
all being said, conditions are primed for flooding, especially
across the North Country, resulting in elevated flows on area rivers
and creeks as well as low land areas this weekend through the start
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some lower CIGs linger over/near both Lake Erie & Ontario, but
remain away from the terminals. Otherwise mainly VFR flight
conditions are found across the rest of the area today as earlier
clouds and fog have dissipated.

Tonight, a mixture of VFR and MVFR CIGs are expected for the start
of the night. Patchy fog is expected to develop later this evening
across WNY, causing reductions to VSBY down to MVFR and IFR at
times. Clouds will push into the southwestern portion of the area
starting this evening and expand northeast in coverage through the
night. This will occur as an area of low pressure tracks across the
Ohio Valley and toward WNY. CIGs will also lower with the expanding
clouds. LIFR to MVFR CIGs are expected by the middle to later
portion of the night for most areas south of Lake Ontario, with the
lower flight cats expected for the higher terrain of the Southern
Tier. Rain showers will start to push into the Southern Tier a few
hours before daybreak as the surface low tracks toward the area.
Areas east of Lake Ontario will remain mostly VFR through the night,
but periods of MVFR CIGs will be possible toward daybreak.

Outlook...

Thursday/Thursday night...LIFR to MVFR with periods of rain and
patchy fog. Some freezing rain is possible from KIAG-KROC Thursday
evening...and from KART northward Thursday night.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with just a low chance of rain showers.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR with showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Sunday through Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building across the Lower Great Lakes will bring light
winds and quiet weather today. As the high slides off to the
east...a modest east-northeasterly flow will develop across Lake
Ontario late today/tonight...then will become fairly brisk on
Thursday as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley. This will
bring a period of SCA-worthy conditions to areas from the Niagara
River to Sodus Bay that will last through much of Thursday night...
before the low departs off to the east later Thursday night/
Friday and allows the pressure gradient across our region to
weaken again.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday
     for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ/HSK
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...HSK/JJR