Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

160
FXUS61 KBUF 141757
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
157 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered temperatures a few degrees for Tuesday afternoon due to
smoke aloft and with ongoing Heat Advisories. Otherwise, no
significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A brief period of dangerous heat today, with very warm, but less
humid conditions Wednesday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms across the North Country this evening
and overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...A brief period of dangerous heat today, with very
warm, but less humid conditions Wednesday.

Heat Advisories remain in effect across western NY through 8 PM EDT
as extensive high pressure system remains across the southern Great
Lakes region. The 12z Buffalo sounding recorded 850mb temp of 21
degC, which is in the climatological 99th percentile for mid-July.
Observed temperatures early this afternoon have reach the mid-80s to
around 90 so far. Coolest areas remain downwind of the lakes near
Buffalo and Watertown where southwest winds gusting around 30 mph
continue to provide some relief.

Monitoring temperatures through the morning hours and early
afternoon, the NBM has been running 2-4 degF too warm across much of
western NY, likely due to lingering upper level smoke from Canadian
wildfires rounding the ridge. Latest GOES Geocolor imagery shows a
clearing now overhead that will remain in place through this
afternoon, so still expecting feels like temperatures to reach into
the upper 90s through late this afternoon, especially across the
lake plains, Genesee Valley, and northern Finger Lakes region.
However, satellite imagery shows additional smoke across the Upper
Great Lakes that will approach western NY overnight and into
Wednesday morning behind a cold front moving south out of Canada.

Temperatures will remain warm Wednesday, but relief from the humid
conditions will arrive throughout the day as the cold front
continues to drop south across the region. Additionally, expecting
cloud cover in the morning near the frontal boundary and a slight
chance (~20%) of showers into the afternoon.

Key Message 2...Showers and thunderstorms across the North Country
this evening and overnight.

Numerous thunderstorm complexes are ongoing currently across Quebec
riding overtop of the extensive upper level ridge in the Great Lakes
region. This is all within a well of 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE
extending from northern NY and north of the border into Canada that
will allow for the continuation of strong and severe storms to
develop and be maintained with 50 kt of effective shear moving
southeast. However, forecast soundings near Watertown and the St.
Lawrence Valley show considerable convective inhibition remaining in
place before the cap can potentially break late this evening.

If storms can develop tonight, strong downburst winds will be the
main hazard. Overall timing looks to be around 9 PM EDT for storms
to begin approaching the St. Lawrence Valley, possibly clipping
northern Jefferson and Lewis Co starting around midnight and into
the early morning hours. Light showers will remain along the
frontal boundary through Wednesday morning as it continues to
drop south through our area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow afternoon, however
there will be some minor hazards for aviation. First of those will
be strong SSW winds this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold
front, with winds 20-30 kts and gusts 35 to up to 40 kts. Another
concern will be the strong LLJ in place, and LLWS of around 40-50
kts will develop this evening through early tonight. Finally, with
winds turning back to the west at the surface, and mid/upper levels
tomorrow, smoke from large wildfires in northern Minnesota and
adjacent western Ontario will overspread the region. Increasing near
surface smoke is likely, and some reductions in visibility are
possible, though conditions should remain VFR.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Thursday...Mainly VFR, smoke possible.

Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers or a
thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong WSW winds will continue to strengthen this afternoon, and
peak this evening ahead of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories
continue for all by the lower Niagara and St. Lawrence Rivers
through early tomorrow morning.

SSW winds of 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts are expected through
early tonight, with waves reaching 4-6 ft near the eastern shore of
Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Winds will subside
to W 10-20 kts after midnight, but waves will be slower to subside.

Tomorrow, winds will generally be SW/W at 10-15 kts, while waves
continue to decline, falling below 4 ft on Lake Ontario before mid
morning, and then generally 1-3 ft through the afternoon.

A period of freshening winds across eastern Lake Ontario Thursday
afternoon and evening may cause another brief period of Small Craft
Advisory conditions during this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for today:

Buffalo, NY 92 (2005)

Rochester, NY97 (1952)

Watertown, NY 91 (1952)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for NYZ007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...SGK
CLIMATE...SGK