Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

778
FXUS61 KBUF 091028
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
528 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is increasing for light to moderate accumulating
snowfall east of Lake Ontario for Tuesday and for the potential
for lake effect snow late Tuesday night through Thursday for
most of the Buffalo CWA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerously cold continues across the region this morning.

2) On Tuesday, a winter storm tracking across the forecast area will
cause light snow and the potential for a wintry mix south of Lake
Ontario and light to moderate snow for the North Country.

3) Upslope and lake enhanced/effect snow will continue across much
of the area from Tuesday night through at least Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerously cold continues across the region this
morning.

Surface high pressure is located over the eastern Great Lakes region
this morning. Mostly clear skies and calm winds over a fresh
snowpack will continue to support very cold temperatures this
morning. Wind chill values range from 15 to 20 below zero in cloud
free spots across western NY, and between 20 and 25 below zero
across Jefferson, Lewis, and far northeast Oswego counties. A
Cold Weather Advisory will continue until 10 AM this morning.
Lake clouds will keep areas near Lake Ontario and the Finger
Lakes warmer.

The cold airmass retreats to the east today. Temperatures are
expected to rise into the 20s across western NY, and the teens
across the Eastern Lake Ontario region.


KEY MESSAGE 2...On Tuesday, a winter storm tracking across the
forecast area will cause light snow and the potential for a wintry
mix south of Lake Ontario and light to moderate snow for the North
Country.

A clipper system tracking along the northern shores of the Great
Lakes and then to the St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night
will cause a variety of winter weather across the region. A series
of strong shortwaves within the larger trough will help to develop
new sfc low(s) and transfer the energy as the entire complex tracks
southeast to the Gulf of Maine by Wednesday morning. WAA ahead of
the system associated with a warm front crossing the area will
develop a shield of precipitation across WNY on Tuesday morning,
which will then shift east to the North Country by late Tuesday
morning or the early afternoon (still some uncertainty with that
timing).

With strong WAA for areas south of Lake Ontario, precipitation that
will initially start out as snow will change over to a brief mixture
of sleet, freezing, snow and rain, before changing over to all rain
for a few hours for most areas. There is still plenty of
uncertainty among the guidance as to the amount of QPF for areas
south of Lake Ontario. This is due to the weaker forcing of the
warm front in this area and the timing of a passing shortwave
trough. Areas east of Lake Ontario will have better forcing for
the increased precipitation, which looks like it will all be in
the form of snow for these areas with colder temperatures more
locked in. Precipitation for areas south of Lake Ontario that
does change to rain will also have the prolonged potential to
freeze due to how cold the ground will be pushing into the day.
That will also add to the additional potential for ice, but
again, there is still uncertainty in precip amounts for these
areas.

The cold front from the system will track across the area from the
mid afternoon through the evening from west to east. Precipitation
that is falling as a mix or as rain will change to snow with
temperature profiles cooling.

For areas east of Lake Ontario where it is expected to remain all
snow, the potential for 2 to 5 inches of snow with some higher
amounts are possible, especially for the Tug Hill where upsloping
will be favorable.

On a side note, for Tuesday, many areas south of Lake Ontario will
warm to above freezing for the first time in 2.5 weeks.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Upslope and lake enhanced/effect snow will continue
across much of the area from Tuesday night through at least Thursday
night.

Cold air advection behind the passing sfc low and its associated
cold front will cause lake enhanced and then lake effect snow to
develop as the system tracks east. Upsloping will also help aid in
snowfall at times as well. The best timing of the lake effect snow
will be from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday night.

While conditions are favorable for lake effect snow during this
time, temperatures aloft don`t get nearly as cold as we have seen
the past few weeks, with plenty of uncertainty among guidance in
these values. Most of the guidance cools temperatures aloft to
around -10C to the low teens C below zero, but with the cold lake
waters now in place, the delta Ts are generally rights around or
just a bit more than that favorable 12C value. This will limit the
lake induced equilibrium levels for this event. However with a good
fetch over Lake Ontario and upstream connection with the upper lakes
over WNY, snowfall amounts of at least a few inches in any 6 hour
period will be possible. Snowfall looks the best southeast of Lake
Ontario with the more ice free waters and larger fetch of the lake.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure is located across the eastern Great Lakes
region this morning. Besides an area of MVFR lake clouds and
flurries from Monroe to Wayne county (KSDC) and to the Finger
Lakes region, widespread VFR conditions are expected through
tonight.

Outlook...

Monday night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Thursday...Restrictions possible in scattered
snow showers.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure is centered across the eastern Great Lakes
region this morning. Variable winds less than 10 knots are expected
today.

Light offshore winds tonight will become southwest Tuesday with
speeds approaching 15 knots. A gradual shift to the west-
northwest is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday with speeds
of 20-25 knots with an eventual need for small craft headlines
during this time frame.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are
now ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/SW
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...EAJ/HSK/TMA