Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

988
FXUS61 KBUF 010055
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
755 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased PoPs for tonight`s light snow event.

Confidence increasing for 50+ degree temperatures on Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A wave of low pressure will bring a period of light snow
tonight through early Sunday.

2) Multiple shortwave troughs starting midweek to bring periods of
rain and snow.

3) Warming trend commences mid-week with well above normal warmth
late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A wave of low pressure will bring a period of light
snow tonight through early Sunday.

A shortwave trough will ripple across our region tonight, bringing a
period of light snow to our region. Timing-wise, the snow is likely
to start by late evening for WNY, and advance eastward across
WNY...brushing by the North Country late tonight.

Lift and moisture advection along a tightening thermal
gradient over our region, combined with the left exit region of a
125 knot 300 hPa jet will support a period of snow, that will
accumulate around an inch...but up to two inches on hill tops of WNY
through Sunday morning. For areas east of Lake Ontario overall snow
totals are expected to be less, with a half inch of accumulation in
spots.

Strong cold air advection will likely continue lake effect snow to
the south and southeast of Lake Ontario through the day Sunday and
into Sunday evening before moisture within the snow DGZ erodes
Sunday night. Little snow accumulation expected from the light
streamers of lake effect snow.

A short-lived but cold period will be upon us for Sunday and into
Monday following this wave of snow...with lows Sunday night in the
single digits, to well below zero east of Lake Ontario and highs on
Sunday and Monday in the 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Multiple shortwave troughs starting midweek to bring
periods of rain and snow.

Multiple shortwave troughs will maintain a progression of fronts
across our region Tuesday and through the end of the week.

A warm southerly flow Tuesday ahead of the first shortwave trough
will leave rain the predominate p-type for WNY, though a wintry mix
may occur for several hours at precipitation onset, while shallower
warmth east of Lake Ontario will promote more of snow, and a brief
wintry mix.

Additional waves of low pressure Wednesday and through the end of
the week will primarily favor plain rain as the precipitation type.

Models continue to have variances with the timing of these
shortwaves and where eventual warm fronts/periods of isentropic lift
rain occur, but there is great agreement in an active and wet period
mid week and through next weekend.

NBM 72-hour precipitation probabilities have a 50 to 70 percent
chance for at least an inch of precipitation (primarily in the form
of rain) for much of WNY outside of the Genesee Valley 12Z Tuesday -
12Z Friday. Additional rain is expected Friday and into the start of
next weekend.

Area creeks and rivers will likely contain this rain and snowmelt
through Thursday. However, by Friday and into the start of next
weekend river forecast model ensembles of the GEFS and NAEFS suggest
many area creeks and streams to have decent chance to reach action
levels, with several potentially reaching flood stage by the end of
next weekend. Any lingering creeks and streams will be at risk for
ice jams as well with temperatures warming through the late week and
into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warming trend commences mid-week with well above
normal warmth late week.

A Pacific zonal flow across our region mid-week will support
temperatures at 850 hPa climbing above zero Celsius.

A series of shortwave troughs are expected to carve a long wave
trough over the western US, with downstream height rises over the
east coast. This will translate to maximum temperatures in the lower
40s Tuesday/Wednesday, with forecasted maximum temperatures
increasing to 50s by next Thursday for WNY.

Current NBM probabilities have increased the odds of 50F or warmer
temperatures for WNY on Friday, virtually giving areas west of the
Genesee Valley and south of the NYS Thruway a 95% plus chance of
reaching 50F, while areas east of Lake Ontario have had their odds
increase to 30 to 40 percent chance. SW Chautauqua County has a 50%
chance of reaching 65 on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A transient wave of surface low pressure and synoptic moisture will
quickly slide east across the lower Great Lakes tonight. An
encroaching upper-level jet attendant to the system will cause light
snow to overspread the region with conditions likely deteriorating
to a mix of MVFR and IFR, though conditions may prevail at VFR
across the North Country. There remains some variance in timing
among the short-range guidance packages though general consensus is
an arrival time at the western-most terminals after 01z, then
tapering off in most areas near or after 09z.

In the system`s wake, MVFR lake effect clouds and limited snow
showers are expected south of Lake Ontario through at least Sunday
morning. Coverage of snow will be sparse though localized IFR will
be possible between roughly KSDC and KROC. Snows will further
diminish through the afternoon as cloud coverage shrinks with areas
of VFR emerging.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with rain and snow showers likely.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the day. Rain with IFR flight
conditions return Wednesday night.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A fresh northwesterly breeze will continue on Lake Ontario through
this evening with continued SCA conditions before relaxing
overnight. High pressure slowly building southeastward across the
Great Lakes will then bring a period of sub-advisory conditions
overnight through Monday, though locally choppy conditions will
likely persist along the south shore of Lake Ontario through the day
Sunday.

Southeasterly winds will then increase Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure shifts off the East Coast and low pressure approaches
from the southwest. This may result in a period of marginal SCA
conditions across the eastern Lake Ontario region.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ042-
         045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...JJR/PP/TMA