Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

247
FXUS61 KBUF 101739
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
139 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued frost advisories for southwestern NYS and eastern Lake
Ontario region for tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of frost tonight, then more widespread frost Monday night
with a potential for a freeze.

2) Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week with periods
of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of frost tonight, then more widespread frost
Monday night with a potential for a freeze.

Surface high pressure, centered over western Ontario Canada tonight,
will drive a cooler airmass over our region. This will bring frost
concerns for tonight...then more widespread frost...or even a freeze
for the hills of southwestern NYS and the eastern Lake Ontario, for
Monday night as the surface high crest over our region.

There is a possible hindrance to the frost formation tonight
though...this being low clouds/moisture over the western Great Lakes
this afternoon that will stream eastward over our region later
tonight. If this moisture yields enough low clouds frost may be
minimal, especially for SW NYS,...but will side on the note of
caution and place frost advisories out for our traditionally colder
SW NYS counties as well as the eastern Lake Ontario region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week
with periods of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.

This afternoon a shortwave trough, seen on water vapor imagery, is
nearing the PAC NW, with this featuring sliding down a building west
coast ridge axis early this week...forming a deep, nearly closed off
upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Moisture will stream northward from the Gulf ahead of this feature,
though the deeper moisture will remain to our south over the Ohio
Valley. Still Pwats rising towards just over an inch will fuel a
period of rain...first Tuesday night along a warm front and then
Wednesday - Wednesday night along a passing cold front.

Instability is low, though a rumble of thunder along the cold front
is possible for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Overall rainfall with this system is forecasted to range between a
half to one inch, and model ensemble river forecasts all maintain
forecasted gauges below flood stage. There is potential for over an
inch of rain in a 24-hour period as per the grand ensemble guidance
from the GEFS, GEPS and ENS which display nearly a 1 in 5 chance for
over an inch of rain over the upslope southern Tug Hill region
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

While the steadier rain will be pushing to our east Wednesday night
wrap around moisture within the passage of the cool upper level
trough axis will support a wealth of clouds yielding light showers
through the day Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to
ridge eastward into the lower Great Lakes tonight. As such, an
exiting cold front will continue to progress eastward and support
VFR conditions throughout the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday... MVFR/IFR with showers and a few thunderstorms.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR improving to MVFR/VFR as showers end throughout
the day.

Friday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR with increasing chances for
showers throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Behind a cold front winds will become elevated, with a westerly flow
increasing just enough to produce waves to four feet on the eastern
Lake Ontario waters. Will continue the small craft advisory here
through the evening hours. Thereafter, surface high pressure
cresting over the eastern Great lakes to begin the work week will
allow for sub small craft conditions fine boating conditions through
Tuesday night. Another passing area of low pressure may bring
another round of SCA Wednesday to the Lower Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     NYZ006>008-012-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...Thomas