Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

533
FXUS61 KBUF 141036
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
636 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms possible today, some of which may
produce strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

2) Dry weather returns Monday and notably cooler.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms possible today, some of
which may produce strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms will increase today as
the low over the northern Ontario Province directs a cold front
towards the Lower Lakes.

Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall Potential...

Little overall change with previous thinking as guidance still shows
a low CAPE/high shear (+40) environment. It still looks like some
measure of showers or storms develop out ahead of the approaching
strong cold front around 11Z-13Z. After that...a line of storms is
advertised to then comes marching in between 18Z-21Z this afternoon
with the front. CAPE values still are `not` all that impressive with
between 900-1200 j/kg away from the lakes. Speaking of which, it
remains to be seen how much the lakes will even influence the
evolution of convection. Even so...given the decent shear storms
will have the potential to become strong to severe with the primary
risk damaging wind gusts. SPC has continued to highlight our region
in a Marginal-Slight Risk for severe storms. Additionally...PWATs
will be found in the 1.5-1.75" range ahead of the cold front. If
storms were to train over the same location the heavy rainfall may
cause localized flash flooding. There continues to be a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall, with an expansion of the
Slight Risk area across Jefferson and far northern Lewis county.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry Weather returns Monday and notably cooler.

Showers and storms will end from NW to SE this evening and tonight
behind the front, with a much cooler air mass spilling in across the
Lower Lakes. With high pressure building in Monday expect dry
weather but cool conditions as H850 T`s dip into the single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through 11Z-13Z this morning. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible today as a cold front nears and
then crosses the region. These showers and thunderstorms will bring
about localized IFR-LIFR conditions at times to area terminals.

With the passage of the front lingering MVFR-IFR cigs will begin to
slowly improve Sunday night, with a return to VFR overnight.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR. Increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated southwest winds ahead of a cold front will make for choppy
conditions on area lakes today. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible ahead and along an approaching cold front, some of which
may produce strong gusty winds and higher wave action.

Winds will turn westerly behind the cold front this evening and
tonight, which may bring a brief period of small craft conditions to
the lakes. Lighter winds and wave actions expected Monday as high
pressure builds over the Lower Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR