Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

207
FXUS61 KBUF 241723
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
123 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

2) Trending warmer this weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday.

Weak mid level wave and warm frontal segment will move into the
region late tonight/Thursday morning. Showers will increase ahead of
these features from west to east very late tonight and Thursday
morning. Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms will
develop Thursday afternoon/evening with a cold frontal passage.
Instability will be initially muted early in the day with coverage
of showers and cloud cover, but cloud breaks by afternoon
should build at least weak to moderate instability. Marginal shear
profiles with 0-6 km bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots could develop
an isolated stronger to severe storm with damaging winds the
primary hazard. The greatest risk for stronger storms will be
across the western Southern Tier.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Trending warmer this weekend and into next week.

Heights will start to build into the Great Lakes this weekend and
then shift east into the Northeast CONUS through next week.
Temperatures will trend upward by the end of the weekend and early
next week with lower humidity. Heat will continue to build
through the middle of next week with humidity also increasing,
which will bring the potential for heat-related headlines as
the risk for dangerous heat indices increases.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread VFR weather through tonight. Diurnal cumulus this
afternoon along and inland from the lakes will erode this evening.
Increasing mid and high level clouds expected overnight. Some valley
fog is possible late tonight, with a greater potential if higher
cloud cover is slower to advance into the region.

Chances for showers increase from west to east late tonight through
Thursday morning with some restrictions possible.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon and Friday...VFR most of the time, but some
restrictions possible with a few showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal wave action expected on area lakes through
tonight.

Winds and waves freshen Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front
which may produce some chop on area lakes, but still below Small
Craft Advisory criteria. Potential for showers and thunderstorms,
will bring the risk for localized higher winds and waves.

Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA