Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

303
FXUS61 KBUF 030603
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
203 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extreme Heat Warning downgraded to a Heat Advisory for today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity will continue today before a gradual downward
trend in temperatures and humidity over the weekend.

2) Showers and thunderstorms likely at times today through the
weekend, a few of which may be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity will continue today before a
gradual downward trend in temperatures and humidity over the weekend.

Hot and humid conditions will continue today, although the heat
index will be a few degrees lower today than the past two days. The
strong mid/upper level ridge over the eastern US is starting to
flatten, with the hottest temperatures aloft and at the surface
starting to focus just south of the area.

Highs will reach the low to mid 90s across lower elevations away
from lake influences. Max heat index values will again focus on the
Lake Ontario lake plains into the Finger Lakes, peaking in the 98-
102 range today. These values are below Extreme Heat Warning
criteria, so the warning has been downgraded to a Heat Advisory for
all areas through this evening.

The strong ridge will continue to drift southeast and off the
Southeast US coast over the weekend, with weak cold advection across
the eastern Great Lakes behind several weak cold frontal boundaries.
This will result in gradual improvement in both temperatures and
humidity, with temperatures returning to typical mid summer values
by Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms likely at times today
through the weekend, a few of which may be strong to severe.

Unsettled weather will continue today through Monday, with a few
rounds of showers and thunderstorms likely each day.

Today, a few showers and isolated thunder may arrive as early as
late morning across Western NY as leftovers from upstream convection
approach. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then increase
during the early to mid afternoon as a weak surface trough moves
southeast across the eastern Great Lakes and encounters moderate to
strong diurnal instability. A series of small scale convectively
modulated shortwaves will move across the eastern Great Lakes this
afternoon and provide mesoscale ascent, with more organized clusters
of thunderstorms closely tied to these difficult to time and place
features. High-res CAMS guidance is in poor agreement with respect
to timing and areal coverage of deep moist convection this
afternoon, but in general expect the peak in coverage and intensity
to last for a few hours sometime between early afternoon and early
evening.

Moderate to strong instability and increasingly favorable shear
profiles will support a risk of severe thunderstorms today, with the
greatest risk from early afternoon through early evening. The
primary hazard will be locally damaging wind gusts, with some
potential for swaths of more significant wind damage if bowing
segments develop. PWAT values of 2.0"+ will support torrential
downpours in any thunderstorms, although relatively fast storm
motion should keep the risk of flash flooding low. The severe risk
will end from northwest to southeast early this evening following
the passage of the weak trough axis.

A few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely cross the
region Saturday through Saturday night as a series of mid level
shortwaves move through the WNW flow aloft atop the stalled frontal
zone over the Great Lakes. Some severe weather risk will evolve
again Saturday afternoon and evening, although more extensive clouds
and showers may limit instability. The main risk again would be
localized strong wind gusts.

Sunday through Monday, a mid level trough will gradually deepen
across the Great Lakes, with an associated surface low tracking from
the upper Ohio Valley late Sunday to the Mid Atlantic by late
Monday. Large scale ascent and moisture transport ahead of the
sharpening mid level trough will continue to support the likelihood
of rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday through Monday,
with the highest rain chances over the southern half of the area in
closer proximity to the surface low and deeper moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly dry conditions will continue through mid morning outside of a
few isolated stray showers, with VFR prevailing. A weak trough will
then drift southeast across the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon
and evening, supporting scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms crossing the area from northwest to southeast. VFR
will still prevail most of the time, but any thunderstorms will
produce brief/local MVFR/IFR conditions along with gusty winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off from northwest to southeast
this evening, with mainly dry weather and VFR returning. Overnight,
another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms may move into
the area, although confidence is low on the timing and placement of
this next round of potential showers. A few areas of low stratus may
bring local MVFR/IFR CIGS overnight across higher terrain.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...VFR/MVFR with occasional showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Greatest coverage of rain over the southern
half of the area. Brief/local IFR in thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms, mainly inland from the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase to around 15 knots today on Lake Erie,
producing a moderate chop. Light winds will return tonight through
Saturday with minimal wave action. Winds will become northeast by
Sunday as high pressure builds into Ontario and Quebec and a weak
frontal zone moves south of the area. Increasing northeast winds may
produce a moderate chop on the south shore of Lake Ontario.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected from midday through early
evening today, and again Saturday. Some storms may produce locally
stronger winds and higher waves.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hot and humid conditions will continue today. Here are the record
maximum and high minimum temperatures for Buffalo, Rochester,
and Watertown.

                    7/3
Buffalo, NY
High Max          94(1949)
Warm Low          74(1911*)

Rochester, NY
High Max          100(1911)
Warm Low          75(1911)

Watertown, NY
High Max          91(1966)
Warm Low          74(1973)


Average Temperatures for July 3
Buffalo
Max           79
Min           62

Rochester
Max           82
Min           61

Watertown
Max           78
Min           58

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
CLIMATE...Hitchcock