Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

110
FXUS61 KBUF 240720
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
220 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide mainly dry weather for much of the
Lower Lakes today. High pressure exits this evening as a warm
front quickly traversing the region. It is then followed by a
cold front Christmas Day, with some light snowfall across the
North Country. Unsettle weather returns for the tail end of the
week, with a chance for a wintry mix.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is sweeping through the region at the moment, and with
it colder air will filter into the Lower Lakes. This will allow
`all` remaining precipitation to turn back over to snow. Where
advisories remain in place (east of Lake Ontario), wrap around
moisture on the backside of the departing low and upslope flow will
potentially add some minor additional accumulating snow across
the higher terrain of the Tug Hill. Winds will also remain
elevated behind the front as a 45-50 knot LLJ passes through the
region this morning, with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph at times.

Sfc high pressure to our west quickly advances east across the
the Lower Lakes today. As it builds in, winds will diminish and
become lighter by this afternoon.

The sfc high then quickly slides off to our east and southeast by
this evening, with weak WAA across the region. There is some
suggestion we `might` see an isolated shower late tonight, this
as a weak impulse passes to our south, and also with a
southward advancing cold front which drops into and across the
North Country overnight. We may even see some very light
snowfall across the St. Lawrence Valley. That said...have very
`low` end PoPs ( < 25%) right now to cover both features, but
it`s likely most areas will see quiet and dry weather as we head
into Christmas morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Strong Canadian high pressure to the north will drift eastward this
period, spanning much of Quebec by Friday morning. A few upslope
snow showers may linger across the Tug/Western Dacks and possibly
near the Finger Lakes as a cold front sinks through the region,
otherwise dry weather will prevail across the region Christmas Day
and through the following night. Daytime highs will be within a
degree or two of climatological norms, while nighttime lows will be
much chillier by comparison. Lows across the North Country in
particular will likely be in the single digits to subzero with some
at least partial clearing of skies early in the night expected.

Post-holiday travel across the region Friday and Friday night will
likely be impacted by a clipper storm system moving east-southeast
across the southern Great Lakes and Midwest towards the
Appalachians. A chilly ESE low-level flow around the aforementioned
high over Quebec will likely undercut the clipper`s warm nose to at
least some extent, which could lead to a wintry mix with freezing
rain and sleet across portions of WNY, with snow favored further
north and east. Still some subtle but key differences among the mid-
range guidance and ensemble packages on the exact track and strength
of this system which will have large and direct impacts on ptypes
and amounts. There appears to be a general southward and somewhat
weaker trend with the latest suite which would favor snow as the
dominant ptype with several inches of accumulation possible, though
with a notable risk for fzra/sleet remaining in and around the
Southern Tier. As this is reflected in the 01z NBM, have not
strayed far from the blended guidance with this update.

As the clipper system weakens and reforms on the leeward side of the
Appalachians along the Mid-Atlantic coast, a general WNW-ESE drying
trend should occur across the forecast area. Precip may taper off
as light fzra or even freezing drizzle in the Southern Tier.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aside from a few lingering snows mainly east of Lake Ontario, a
brief reprieve from the messy winter weather Saturday and into
Saturday night as high pressure ridging becomes reestablished over
the eastern Great Lakes.

Attention then shifts to a sharp trough moving into the western
Great Lakes Sunday, which will evolve into a closed low over the
northeastern quadrant of North America by Monday. This will send a
strong arctic cold front through the region between Sunday night and
early Monday, with a preceding warmup and widespread rainfall on
Sunday. Details on the exact evolution of this pattern remain in
question though confidence is high in a very windy post-frontal
environment (gusts 40+ kts possible) with sharply plummeting
temperatures and lake effect snow developing. The lake effect snow
is then expected to last through Tuesday, though it remains far too
early to predict snow intensity. The same can largely be said
for potential band placement, though long range ensembles
continue to suggest an initial period of west-southwesterly flow
Sunday night through Monday, possibly shifting to more of a NW
flow Tuesday with winds subsiding to a degree.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds acroos the region today behind a passing
cold front. Low end VFR and MVFR (higher terrain) will be found
across the region this morning which will slowly improve to VFR
at all area terminals by this afternoon.

Sfc high pressure moves off to our east and southeast late this
afternoon but will maintain VFR conditions through this evening. A
weak impulse passing to our south, and a cold front approaching from
the north will then bring lower cigs overnight.

Outlook...
Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with a wintry mix likely.

Saturday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR in chance of snow east of Lake
Ontario.

Sunday...IFR/MVFR in rain changing to snow.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure builds across the Lower Lakes today which will
allow for lighter winds and diminishing wave action by this
afternoon.

A cold front drops through the Lower Lakes Christmass Day,
which will bring a freshening of winds and waves resulting in
Small Craft conditions on both lakes.

High pressure builds in Thursday night bringing a brief reprieve
before the next system approaches Friday. Easterly flow will develop
on lake Ontario with possible SCA needed on the western end of the
lake.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR