Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

674
FXUS61 KBUF 081043
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
543 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will pass over the eastern Great Lakes region
today, bringing mid winter coldness, but with a mix of clouds and
bright sunshine. Temperatures will quickly drop tonight into the
single digits again, with inland sub-zero readings. A series of
storm systems Tuesday and Wednesday will bring a little snow along
with a gusty wind, with Wednesday`s snow mixing with a little rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
On a cold, northerly flow a few light lake effect snow flurries
linger south of Lake Ontario this early morning.

Surface high pressure will crest across our region today with fair
weather, albeit cold with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below
normal.

Temperatures will quickly drop into the single digits, to inland
below zero tonight. A return light southerly flow, and increase in
mid and high level clouds later in the night will slow the
radiational cooling towards the west, possibly allowing for
temperatures to rise a degree or two after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A weakening area of low pressure will track well to the north of the
area on Tuesday. At the same time, a potent shortwave trough and
warm front extending southeast from the sfc low will track across
the region Tuesday afternoon/evening. This will bring a swath of
widespread snow showers to the region, starting early Tuesday
afternoon for the western zones, and by mid/late afternoon for
eastern zones. Lake enhanced snow is expected northeast of the lakes
Tuesday night behind the main portion of this system. Snowfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible with this system, with
locally higher amounts for areas northeast of the lakes, and for the
Tug Hill area. Areas closer to the lakes across WNY may briefly mix
with or change to rain on Tuesday afternoon, resulting in lower snow
amounts. Temperatures on Tuesday will reach the low to mid 30s for
most areas, with some mid to upper 20s for the higher terrain east
of Lake Ontario. Marginal temperatures during the day on Tuesday
will help limit snow ratios, and therefore snow amounts some. Gusty
winds to around 30 mph are expected on Tuesday afternoon/evening as
a LLJ nearing 50kts moves across the area south of Lake Ontario.
Winds northeast of Lake Erie may be a little stronger with the
southwest flow coming off the lake.

Another surface low and potent shortwave trough will dive southeast
out of Canada and to near the southern portion of Lake Michigan
Tuesday through Tuesday night. The system will then round the base
of the larger scale trough over the region and start to track
northeast across Lower Michigan and across southern Ontario and to
the St. Lawrence Valley through the day on Wednesday. There WAS more
certainty among guidance up until the 00Z runs early this morning,
when the GFS has nudged the track farther south, directly across
Lake Erie, WNY and to CNY by early Wednesday evening. This farther
south track would decrease the wind potential and increase the
potential for snow vs rain. With that, precipitation will start to
increase across WNY a few hours before daybreak on Wednesday
morning, and expand east across the entire area by mid-morning.
Precipitation will transition from the lake enhanced/effect regime
to a widespread synoptic regime. Most of the widespread synoptic
precipitation will at least briefly start out as snow, but will mix
with and change to rain with a southerly flow and WAA ahead of the
approaching system. Areas across the highest terrain of the Southern
Tier and Tug Hill will stand the best chance to remain all snow for
the duration of the event, but even a brief mix with or change over
to rain for a few hours can`t be ruled out for these areas as well.
As mentioned above, there remains plenty of uncertainty still with
the exact track of the system, which will dictate temperatures,
precipitation types, and winds. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches
looks possible on Wednesday for areas where the snow lingers the
longest over the higher terrain, with that number possibly higher if
the sfc low tracks farther south and results in cooler temperatures.

As the system tracks east and CAA begins with the cold frontal
passage, rain will start to mix with and change to snow from west to
east, and from the higher terrain to the lower elevations for
Wednesday evening/night. The cold front will cross the area during
the late afternoon into the first half of the evening. With cooling
temperatures aloft, lake enhanced snow will increase snow off of the
lakes through at least the first half of the overnight hours. Areas
east and then southeast of the lakes can expect the most snow,
especially over the higher terrain, where an additional 1 to 3
inches of snow will be possible through Wednesday night.
Temperatures for Wednesday ahead of the cold frontal passage will
reach the mid 30s to low 40s for most areas south of Lake Ontario,
and in the low to upper 30s for areas east of Lake Ontario. The
cooler range of these temperatures can be expected for the higher
terrain.

Gusty winds are possible once again for Wednesday. As with the
potential for snow vs rain, the track of the sfc low will greatly
influence the potential for a strong LLJ over the area on Wednesday
morning through the afternoon. With the farther south forecast from
the GFS winds would not be as strong as winds with the more northern
track such as with most other guidance. For now going with the
consensus of the stronger wind potential and gusts in the 30 to 35
mph range for most of the area, and in the 35 to 40 mph range for
areas of WNY, closer to and northeast of Lake Erie. LLJ winds vary
greatly between the NAM which peaks at 60 kts for many areas south
of Lake Ontario vs the GFS which barely hits 45 kts, and mainly for
areas near the NY/PA border. Mixing to the surface also isn`t
strong, which looks to limit these winds from reaching the ground.
The strongest winds in most guidance looks like it should be ahead
of the cold front crossing the area, with winds weakening behind its
passage as CAA begins.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For this period long wave troughing will dominate, with a shortwave
Thursday to be replaced by another shortwave trough for the weekend.

This will maintain active weather with localized lake effect snow
and passing synoptic snow. Just a brief ridge of high pressure
Friday may limit the snow chances through the day.

Temperatures at 850 hPa generally in the low to mid teens below zero
Celsius will maintain below normal temperatures, with a colder
airmass for the weekend likely to bring successive days in the
low to mid 20s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS, outside of a few light snow flurries south of
Lake Ontario through 12-14Z, VFR flight conditions will be
found with a light wind as surface high pressure crests across
the region.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR to IFR with afternoon light snow, possibly mixing
with rain Tuesday night.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with rain and snow showers. Breezy, with gusts
20-30kts in many areas. Gusts to 35kts possible at KBUF/KIAG.

Thursday...VFR, with MVFR/IFR in scattered to numerous snow showers.

Friday...MVFR/IFR east of the lakes with snow showers likely.
MVFR/VFR outside the main lake effect areas.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build across the lakes today, then shift
southeast of the lakes tonight. This will cause winds and subsequent
wave heights to diminish, first over Lake Erie and later along the
southern Lake Ontario shoreline with current small craft advisories
ending through the morning hours.

This surface high will then yield light winds over the lakes this
afternoon and overnight.

The offshore flow will increase and begin to turn southwesterly as
another weak system moves east of the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday,
which will then be followed by a more potent area of low pressure on
Wednesday. Depending upon the track of the surface low, gales are
possible Tuesday - Wednesday, with Wednesday the more favorable day,
especially over Lake Erie.

Westerly winds will subside below gale force later Wednesday night
into Thursday, though remain elevated through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas