Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

291
FXUS61 KBUF 281030
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
530 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor adjustments to snowfall amounts and placement of the band off
Lake Ontario.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heavy lake effect snow persist east and southeast of Lake Ontario
through much of the week, with bands varying in location and
intensity. Limited lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie
at times.

2) A frigid airmass will remain locked in place through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy lake effect snow persist east and southeast of
Lake Ontario through much of the week, with bands varying in
location and intensity. Limited lake effect snow will continue east
of Lake Erie at times.

Heavy lake effect snow will continue through at least Thursday off
Lake Ontario, with somewhat more limited lake effect snow then
persisting Friday through Saturday. Lake induced equilibrium levels
will continue to run around 10K feet through Thursday with an arctic
airmass in place. The dendritic growth zone is found low in the
boundary layer in such a cold airmass, but is still sufficiently
deep to support fluffy snow and high snow:water ratios.

The strong connection to Georgian Bay that developed during the pre-
dawn hours is starting to break down as boundary layer flow backs.
Boundary layer flow will back to the southwest today, carrying the
band of heavy snow from Wayne/northern Cayuga counties early this
morning back northeast across Oswego County, ending up in Jefferson
County this afternoon. Snowfall rates may reach 2-3" per hour this
morning, with some weakening expected this afternoon as shear
increases ahead of the next clipper shortwave.

One or two lake effect bands in Jefferson County this afternoon and
evening will consolidate back into one heavy band by this evening
and move south across the Tug Hill region back into Oswego County
overnight. The band will likely take on anti-cyclonic curvature late
tonight and Thursday morning as a strong land breeze circulation
develops along the south shore, with the east end of the band
bending inland across western Oswego County and far northern Cayuga
County. Snowfall rates may again reach 2-3" per hour overnight
through Thursday morning. The band will stay in this general area
through early afternoon Thursday, then settle a little farther south
and start to hug much of the south shore of the lake later in the
afternoon, with some weakening likely.

The near constant band motion continues to make this a difficult
forecast in terms of timing and location of the heaviest
accumulations. The band will likely have the most residence time
across Oswego County, where additional accumulations of 1-2 feet are
likely in the most persistent bands. Elsewhere, expect another 6-12
inches across portions of Wayne and northern Cayuga counties, and
also southern Jefferson and far western Lewis counties.

A cold front will slowly drop southward across the Lake late
Thursday, shoving the band of snow to along the entire southern Lake
Ontario shoreline, before added wind shear, and added low level dry
air, disrupts the snowband Friday. A continued northwest to
northerly flow Friday through Saturday night, with a shallow snow
DGZ below 5K feet will maintain likely fluffy and light lake effect
snow south of Lake Ontario. A few flurries may linger into Sunday
morning before lower atmosphere warming lifts the snow DGZ to above
the low level moisture.

Off Lake Erie...

Extensive ice cover will continue to limit the lake response, but
not end it altogether, as proven by the accumulating lake enhanced
snow on Tuesday.

Synoptic scale moisture will remain limited today, which will keep
any lake effect snow very light and spotty. A few flurries or light
snow showers may develop later today east of the lake, with minimal
accumulation.

Synoptic scale moisture will improve tonight as the next clipper
system moves through the eastern Great Lakes. This should allow for
an uptick in light snow showers east of Lake Erie, with a dusting to
an inch or two possible east of the lake. The occasional light snow
showers will continue Thursday east of the lake.

Model guidance suggests a meandering band of Lake Huron lake effect
snow may move into portions of Western NY later in the afternoon,
producing localized minor accumulations. The placement of these
bands is difficult to forecast, but the most likely location would
be between Buffalo and Rochester extending into the western Finger
Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A frigid airmass will remain locked in place through
the weekend.

Very cold wind chills will continue this morning. The coldest wind
chills will be across the higher terrain of the western Southern
Tier, occasionally dropping to around 15 below zero. A Cold Weather
Advisory remains in effect for the western Southern Tier through 10
AM this morning. Elsewhere, wind chills will run in the 8 below to
14 below zero range this morning. Wind chills will remain below zero
most of the time later today through Thursday, but will in general
stay short of Cold Weather Advisory criteria most of the time.

A -2SD 500 hPa trough will then drop across the Great Lakes and mid-
Atlantic region Thursday and Thursday night, with a surface cold
front slowly settling southward across Lake Ontario Thursday. This
will maintain well below normal temperatures for Thursday and into
the start of the weekend, and not until Monday will we see ridging
at the surface and aloft extending into our region, with a less
frigid airmass.

The coldest period is likely to be Thursday night and Friday. The
layer 850 hPa temperatures lower to -20 to -22C that with a light
northwest flow will bring dangerously low wind chill values into the
negative teens, if not negative 20s...with actual temperatures below
zero and possibly negative teens for the North Country.

Remaining cold Friday with single digit highs common for our region
outside of lake snowbands (where modified airmass from Lake Ontario
may allow for maximum temperatures just above 10F).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue today through tonight off Lake
Ontario, with locally heavy snow and LIFR/LIFR conditions. A band of
heavy snow southeast of the lake between KROC and KFZY early this
morning will move northeast today, crossing Oswego County this
morning and ending up in Jefferson County near KART this afternoon
with local IFR/LIFR conditions. The band will then move back south
across the Tug Hill region to Oswego County tonight, with locally
heavy snow and LIFR/VLIFR conditions within the band.

Off Lake Erie, a much weaker lake response will continue today and
tonight. Light snow showers with MVFR/IFR VSBY across the higher
terrain east of the lake early this morning will weaken and lift
north towards KBUF today, but the snow should remain very light with
just a few scattered flurries and limited VSBY impacts. The light
snow should expand in coverage somewhat tonight, with areas of
MVFR/IFR developing east of the lake, especially south of KBUF.

Outside of lake effect areas, mainly VFR conditions will prevail
most of today, with MVFR CIGS becoming more prevalent late today
through tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday...Localized lake effect snow with LIFR east and southeast
of Lake Ontario. Much weaker lake effect snow will produce localized
IFR east of Lake Erie. VFR/MVFR outside of lake effect areas.

Friday...Lake effect snow along the south shore of Lake Ontario with
local IFR. VFR/MVFR elsewhere.

Saturday...Snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario with MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated west to southwest winds will continue through tonight on
Lake Ontario before becoming northwest Thursday through Friday. This
will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions on the lake most of
the time through the end of the week. On Lake Erie, elevated
southwest winds will continue today before diminishing tonight
through Thursday.

Of note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are now
ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ004.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for
     NYZ005>008.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ019>021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock