Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

297
FXUS61 KBUF 200935
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
535 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Tightened the gradient in snowfall amounts across the North Country
today.

Added slight chances for snow showers across the North Country early
Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A couple of systems will bring opportunities for rain and/or snow
through this weekend.

2) Breezy to windy conditions are expected south of Lake Ontario
today.

3) Active pattern continues next week with colder air in place.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A couple of systems will bring opportunities for
rain and/or snow through this weekend.

A weak mid-level shortwave evident on GOES Water Vapor imagery this
morning across the upper Great Lakes will take aim at the forecast
area today. The relatively weak but compact attendant sfc low will
drag the core of a fairly strong southwesterly LLJ just south of
Lake Ontario with a deep plume of synoptic moisture wrapped within
the system. This will result in precipitation overspreading the
region from the northwest through the morning hours. Thermal
profiles continue to suggest plain rain south of Lake Ontario,
though if the precip manages to start early enough and is
sufficiently heavy enough to reach the ground, could see some wet
bulbing resulting in brief or a wintry mix in spots. East of the
lake, snow will be initially favored from roughly the Tug Hill
region northward before the column warms to allow for a changeover
to rain. Still a bit of uncertainty in the max northward extent of
the rain/snow line today, with some models suggesting that far
northern Jefferson County remains mostly snow through the day. As
such, there is a sharp gradient in expected snowfall amounts from
Watertown northward.

Rainfall amounts on the order of a half to three quarters of an inch
will lead to rises on area waterways. Given the low amount of
snowpack across WNY and only brief warmup east of Lake Ontario
however, even the more aggressive MMEFS guidance continues to
suggest only a few creeks potentially rising to low-end action
stage.

The next system will be forced by a positively tilted mid-level
longwave trough which will slowly cross the eastern Great Lakes
Saturday night through Sunday night. An elongated baroclinic zone
looks to set up across the Great Lakes as a broad area of sfc low
pressure gradually slides SE across the Mississippi Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic states. Still a fair bit of uncertainty in the details
of this system, particularly in regards to track which will largely
dictate dominant ptypes observed across the forecast area.
Guidance continues to exhibit subtle but key forecast discrepancies
for our region though overall seems to have jogged a bit further
southward with the track with the latest suite. This would suggest a
slightly colder solution overall, though outside some tweaks to snow
ratios and amounts, have stuck close to NBM output with this update
until the details become a bit clearer. This favors a rain/snow mix
changing over to plain rain south of Lake Ontario, though could see
a wintry mix in spots depending on the ultimate track of the low.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Breezy to windy conditions are expected south of
Lake Ontario today.

The aforementioned southwesterly LLJ associated with the clipper low
set to arrive in the Lower Lakes today will have peak magnitudes in
the 55-60kt range at about 2000ft off the surface. Strong WAA and
active precipitation will greatly inhibit downward mixing of these
stronger winds, though the limited momentum transfer and tightening
sfc pressure gradient will still allow for a breezy day south of
Lake Ontario. Gusts here should remain in the 25-35mph range for
most spots, though could see terrain influences causing locally
stronger gusts in the Southern Tier. Hi-res guidance suggests some
potential (30-40% chc) for gusts closer to 40mph briefly off the
Chautauqua Ridge and across the hilltops south of Buffalo/Batavia.
Winds will quickly subside behind the low this evening and tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Active pattern continues next week with colder air
in place.

A deeper polar-continental airmass across Canada will be dragged
southward behind the late weekend system as it strengthens and moves
off the East Coast. The initial shot of colder air will be short-
lived with 850mb temps briefly dipping to around -13C Monday night
warming back into the (negative) single digits C Tuesday. A couple
of reinforcing shortwaves moving across eastern Canada will
generally suppress the intrusion of warmer air into the forecast
area through midweek.

In terms of sensible weather, this should translate to a period of
colder surface temps Monday and Monday night, though not as cold as
the most recent cold shot earlier this week. The temps aloft will be
supportive of a lake response and some upslope activity, though the
window for this looks rather short. Temps then look to moderate some
for Tue/Wed before a stronger system briefly advects notably warmer
air into the region around Thursday. Long range guidance is
consistent with even colder air moving back in behind this late week
system. The passing shortwaves will also bring their own
chances for precipitation. Thermal profiles suggest rain, snow
and/or a wintry mix will be possible at times depending on the
track and strength of their attendant sfc features.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Compact low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will quickly drop
southeastward and across the area as we push through the course
of today. Widespread rain attendant to this system will overspread
the region from northwest to southeast through the morning hours...
with the rain becoming moderate for a time before tapering off from
northwest to southeast during the mid to late afternoon. Across the
North Country...the rain will begin as either some wet snow or a
rain/snow mix...before changing over to mainly rain by early
afternoon.

The above will result in flight conditions quickly deteriorating to
MVFR and then IFR/LIFR through the early to mid afternoon hours as
the low levels saturate...with MVFR light fog and IFR/LIFR ceilings
then persisting at least into this evening as a northerly upslope
flow develops behind the departing system. Some limited improvement
to IFR/MVFR ceilings will then be possible later this evening and
overnight.

Finally...there will also be at least a short period of LLWS across
western New York from this morning into early this afternoon as a
strong but compact 45-55 knot low level jet quickly crosses the area
from west to east. The LLWS will then relax in tandem with some
partial mixing and the departure of the strongest winds aloft...with
surface gusts in the 25-30 knot range becoming common across much of
WNY from late this morning into mid-late this afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday...Improvement to VFR.

Sunday...Deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain likely, likely mixed
with snow across the North Country.

Sunday Night...Continued MVFR/IFR with leftover scattered rain and
snow showers changing over to snow.

Monday...MVFR/local IFR with lake effect snow showers likely south
of Lake Ontario.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Expect wind speeds to generally remain at or below 10 knots through
daybreak...while directions trend from variable to easterly/
southeasterly out ahead of compact low pressure approaching from the
Upper Great Lakes.

The surface low will then drop southeastward and across the Lower
Lakes region today...while also driving a commensurate increase in
wind speeds. Across Lake Ontario the track of the low will result in
a moderate southeasterly flow through the morning/midday hours...
with the offshore nature of the flow keeping any greater wave action
out over the open portion of the lake. Off Lake Erie it will be a
bit of a different story...with a moderately brisk southwesterly
flow of 15-20 knots developing this morning and then continuing into
early this afternoon...bringing a short round of near-SCA conditions
to that lake. Following the passage of the low...winds will then
quickly turn more northerly and diminish later today and this
evening.

Looking further out through the weekend...generally light to modest
winds should linger through Saturday...with a cold front then
crossing the region on Sunday and ushering in a period of increasing
northeasterly flow Sunday into Sunday night...with this currently
looks strong enough to support another round of advisory-level
conditions on Lake Ontario from later Sunday into Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PP
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR