Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

690
FXUS61 KBUF 160948
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
548 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Areas of fog are possible northeast of Lake Erie and east of Lake
Ontario early this morning. Fog is also possible tonight.

The severe thunderstorm risk has increased slightly across
western and central NY this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, with damaging
winds as the main hazard.

2) Another round of widespread showers expected with a few possible
thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night.

3) The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much
colder air arrives by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today,
with damaging winds as the main hazard.

GOES water vapor shows an upper level ridge across the eastern CONUS
with moisture streaming across the Great Lakes and Northeastern
states early this morning. Satellite derived moisture fields show a
broad area of PWATS over 1.25" and percent of normal at 200%.
A shortwave trough will move into the Mid- western states this
morning. An area of low pressure from southern Wisconsin to
central Michigan will move northeast today. Initially, an uptick
in winds and warm air advection across the northern Ohio valley
will support showers and isolated thunderstorms across far
western NY this morning. As the surface low moves northwest of
the forecast area, a cold front will approach the region today.
A very moist airmass and daytime heating will result in
destabilization across the region. Guidance remains uncertain
regarding the magnitude of instability across interior western
and north- central NY today, with the HREF more favorable for
moderate instability and the REFS more subdued. Earlier showers
and cloud cover especially across far western NY may lead to
more inhibition. Forecast 0-6km shear is around 40kts this
afternoon and the combination of moderate shear and instability
will support the development of strong to severe multicell,
possibly supercells. The primary threat will be damaging winds,
however large hail and an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out.
In fact, HREF guidance depicts a differential heating boundary
along the southern shore of Lake Ontario into the eastern Lake
Ontario region that could be a zone for severe thunderstorms.
The SPC Day 1 outlook has Marginal and Slight risk areas across
the forecast area. Thunderstorms are likely to develop along the
Lake Erie lake breeze early this afternoon and move eastward
while tapping into a favorable environment for strong
thunderstorms. Due to the moist airmass, thunderstorms will be
capable of heavy downpours, however quick moving storms should
limit any hydro concerns.

The area of low pressure will move northeast of the region with the
cold front moving into the forecast area and stalling overnight. The
potential for strong thunderstorms will exit to the east this
evening, but scattered showers will be possible overnight. Also,
patchy fog is possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of widespread showers expected with a
few possible thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night.

A deep closed low trudging across the southern Canadian Prairies
Friday night through Saturday night will lift northeast across
Hudson Bay and further strengthen by Sunday. This will send a
powerful cold front through the eastern Great Lakes Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. A strong southwesterly LLJ
immediately ahead of the front transporting a plume of Gulf-based
moisture across the Mississippi Valley will support another round of
widespread rain showers.

Diurnal timing of the front looks favorable for enough instability
to grow within the warm sector to potentially bring a few
thunderstorms as well. Uncertainty remains moderate to high in the
severe potential as models advertise the LLJ weakening over the
region as the precip moves in Saturday afternoon. While the greatest
threat thus appears to be upstream across the Ohio Valley, could see
a lower-end threat extending northeast into WNY where the stronger
jet energy and building instability have the most favorable overlap
in our forecast area. The strong, unidirectional mid/upper level
flow may support a linear convective mode with a few localized
strong wind gusts.

The heaviest, steadiest precipitation should lie east of the
forecast area by early Sunday morning. Mid to long range guidance
suggests a secondary wave developing along the front in the Mid-
Atlantic region Saturday night which may slow its overall
progression, while the main trough axis will not move through until
Sunday night. This will continue to support lower-end chances for
showers, though the colder, more stable post-frontal environment
will be highly unfavorable for thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The very warm pattern continues through Saturday
before much colder air arrives by early next week.

While temps will cool off a few degrees for Friday as the quasi-
stationary boundary hanging over the region is firmly shoved to the
southeast, above average temperatures will persist through Saturday.

The more substantial pattern change will come behind the cold front
described in Key Message (2) as deep upper level troughing crosses
the Northeast. 850mb temps around +15C Saturday afternoon will
tumble to either side of -6C by Sunday morning, then bottom out
around -12C Monday morning. This will translate to sfc high
temperatures averaging 10-15 degrees (F) below normal Sunday through
Monday night. Overnight lows will be similarly cold, with areawide
temps dipping below freezing and potentially even into the teens
across the higher terrain areas, depending on the amount of clearing
that takes place.

The trough axis moving through the region combined with some minor
lake enhancement and upslope effects may even support a few snow
showers or flurries at times early next week. Impactful
accumulations appear very unlikely at this range.

High pressure at all levels cresting over and east of the region
should cause a southerly flow to develop by Tuesday, with
temperatures recovering to near climatological averages through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A few rounds of showers are expected to move into western NY
this morning. A warm, humid airmass resides across the region.
Low stratus and areas of fog are located across the region with
IFR/LIFR at the TAF sites. Flight conditions are expected to
lift northward and improve across BUF/IAG/ROC and improve
across other portions of the region as showers arrive this
morning. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to persist at ART
through daybreak, and slowly improve through 13z. Showers are
likely east of Lake Ontario through this morning and may
disrupt/improve flight conditions before falling back down. An
area of scattered showers with a slight chance of a
thunderstorm are possible across far western NY through the
morning hours.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the
region today, with the potential for isolated to scattered strong
thunderstorms this afternoon. Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds,
small hail, and heavy downpours.

A weak cold front will move into the region tonight. Scattered
showers and patchy fog are expected with flight conditions lowering
to IFR or below across the region overnight.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible.

Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers later in the
afternoon.

Sunday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with rain showers mixing with and
changing over to snow throughout the day.

Monday...Improving to VFR/MVFR. Lingering lake enhanced snow showers
and clouds gradually dissipate.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm, humid airmass will reside across the eastern Great Lakes
through Saturday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will
cross the lakes today, a few of which may produce strong surface
wind gusts and locally higher waves. Otherwise the warmer airmass
and relatively cold lake temperatures will result in limited mixing
of synoptic winds...thereby precluding any real risk of advisory-
level conditions.

Relatively light winds and minimal wave action are then expected
later tonight and Friday as high pressure builds across the Lower
Great Lakes...before winds increase out of the south/southwest
Saturday/Saturday night in association with the approach/passage of
a strong cold front. This may result in the next round of SCA
conditions with the frontal passage also accompanied by another
round of showers and storms...some of which could produce locally
stronger winds and higher waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/PP
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JJR